705
FXUS61 KAKQ 141649
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1249 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving low pressure brings a period of unsettled weather
today, especially from this afternoon through this evening.
Conditions turn warm, with summerlike heat and humidity Friday
and Saturday, and mainly afternoon and evening showers and
storms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch has been issued along the I-64 corridor from Hampton
  Roads, Middle Peninsula, and Louisa/Fluvanna County for this
  afternoon/evening.

- Lower coverage of storms but remaining unsettled today. Mid to
  late afternoon and evening showers and storms are likely. A
  few storms could be strong to severe, with large hail and
  gusty winds the main threats.

As of 1240 PM:
With the rainfall from yesterday and additional showers/storms
expected this afternoon and evening, there is potential for flash
flooding along the I-64 corridor from the northern piedmont, Middle
Peninsula, Richmond and vicinity, Hampton Roads Peninsula and
through the Tidewaters. Recent CAMs show showers and storms moving
in a more easterly flow coming from North Carolina and encountering
a boundary close to the bay, which may have storms taking on a more
northeastern motion. Recent HREF model guidance has a likely
probability of these areas seeing up to 3" of rainfall within 3
hours, with locally higher amounts possible. Taking into account of
yesterday`s rainfall, Flash Flood Guidance is relatively low (1.25-
2" an hour) for these areas. All this together, thinking the
conditions are right to see flooding in these areas. In addition,
WPC has upgraded the Excessive Rainfall Outlook over our area to now
include a slight risk.

Latest weather analysis shows weakening upper level low pressure
in the process of opening up as it lingers over the Ohio Valley
into the upper TN Valley region. The attendant sfc low was
analyzed over IN/W OH. Secondary low pressure is lingering over
central VA into the northern neck, with sfc warm front that has
moved through most of the area at this time. A few showers and
storms are moving northwards from the far SW counties in the FA.
There was some lightning from these storms, but they have
weakened to showers more recently.

For today, the Ohio Valley low lifts slowly to the ENE as it
weakens through this evening. One last strong shortwave rotating
around the base of the trough pulls through the region this
afternoon, and will likely set off another round of scattered to
numerous showers and storms. While highest PWs have pooled north
of the region, 00z soundings reveal PW values in the 1.3-1.5"
range across the region. The incoming forcing for ascent,
moisture-laden airmass, and developing instability this
afternoon should combine to yield additional showers and storms
this afternoon.

SPC has continued the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for the entire
area today. Deep layer (0-6km) shear is 20-25 kt (at best)
today, so expect a mainly sub-severe storm mode, with a few
storms that could become strong to severe. Large hail and gusty
winds are the primary threats, especially as mid-level lapse
rates quickly steepen this afternoon.

Minimal shear should allow for storms to weaken rather quickly
as we get to mid to late evening. Main window for strong storms
looks to be 3 to 7 pm. Partial clearing once again tonight, with
more late night fog and low stratus anticipated. Look for late
night/early morning lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Trending warmer Thursday and Friday. While afternoon and
  evening and storms will be lower in areal coverage, isolated
  to widely scattered aftn/early evening storms are possible
  each day.

Shortwave ridging building to the west will finally kick the
lingering upper trough offshore Thursday into Friday. There will
likely be enough leftover moisture and instability to result in
additional isolated to scattered showers and storms Thursday
afternoon, albeit with lower coverage than we had yesterday or
what is expected later today. Highs will be slightly warmer
than Wednesday in the lower to mid 80s.

Previously referenced upper ridging kicks east for Friday, which
should help limit areal coverage of storms even further to round
out the work week. However, a potent upper level low pressure
is forecast to deepen over the Great Lakes region Friday, with a
pre-frontal trough then looking to sharpen to the NNW by
afternoon. This could bring a few storms into the area by late
in the day from the NW, and have accordingly maintained slight
to low end chance PoPs.

The other story will be the briefly building heat for Friday
into the weekend. SW flow will lift a warm front through the
area on Friday morning. The incoming upper ridging, SW flow,
and resultant rising heights should yield highs well into the
80s to low 90s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to ~70 should yield
max heat index values well into the 90s over much of the region.
Mild with lows in the 60s to near 70 Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Summer-like warmth and humidity to begin the weekend on
  Saturday. Slightly cooler but remaining warm on Sunday and
  Monday but with less humidity.

- A few isolated to scattered showers possible Saturday, but
  mainly dry Sunday and Monday.

Similar weather story Saturday, as the Great Lakes system slowly
swings east and the local area remains warm. Temperatures will
be above normal Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to 90F with
heat indices back into the 90s by afternoon. Late Saturday to
early Sunday, a cold front will approach the region, which may
cool the temperatures slightly into early next week. Confidence
is not high on any precipitation at this time given the
weakening front, as models continue to disagree on timing and
amounts. Slight chance PoPs are forecast for the weekend. Monday
looks to be dry behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 710 AM EDT Wednesday...

IFR/LIFR CIGs along the coast and LIFR/IFR VSBY/CIGs inland to
begin the 12z/14 TAF period. CIGs/VSBY improves to MVFR by
13-15z then scatters out or rise to VFR by midday. Another
round of scattered to numerous showers and tstms are expected
across VA/NC during the aftn and evening, a few of which could
contain variable wind gusts of 25-40 kt. Have continued PROB30
groups in all local terminals except for SBY between 19-23z Wed.

Outlook: Looking ahead, we`ll have another chance of early
morning IFR stratus/fog at RIC/PHF/SBY Thursday morning.
Additional showers and storms, albeit with steadily decreasing
areal coverage is expected both Thu & Fri. Predominate VFR
conditions return over the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories linger across the coastal waters today for
elevated seas.

- Calmer across the marine area for the remainder of the week,
outside of daily showers and storms.

The pressure gradient ahead of an occluding low pressure system
across the Ohio River Valley continues to weaken early this morning.
This is allowing southeasterly winds to also subside, with most
winds around 6-12kt outside of any convective features/showers.
Thus, Small Craft Advisories for the Bay will be allowed to expire
(the rivers and Sound have also already expired). A few gusts to 15-
20kt will be possible through sunrise before winds hold around 8-
12kt through the day today. There will be the threat of heavy rain
and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become
strong to severe and be capable of producing strong damaging winds.
SCAs will persist across the coastal waters into tonight as seas are
forecast to remain elevated. As of early this morning, seas are
still reaching 5-8ft with occasional 9-10ft offshore, particularly
within the southern waters. Expect them to very gradually subside
through the day today, reaching 3-4ft across the south and 4-5ft
across the north by tonight. SCAs should be allowed to drop off
later tonight. Seas will be 3-4ft through Friday, then 2-3ft for the
weekend.

Outside of any storms, winds look to remain rather benign through
the remainder of the week. There may be brief period of slightly
elevated but still sub-SCA winds Saturday night, especially across
the lower Bay, but confidence is low for now. Daily shower and storm
threats persist.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The high rainfall amounts yesterday in the VA mountains is
making its way down the James River. The Rivanna River at
Palmyra gauge reached minor flood stage last night and a Flood
Warning will remain in effect through late tonight. Along the
James River, the Cartersville, Richmond-Westham, and Richmond
Locks gauges will reach minor flood stage this afternoon and
evening as water continues to move towards the bay. Flood
Warnings will go into effect in conjuction with the minor
flooding.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-062-064-
     069-081>086-089-090-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...KMC/MAM
SHORT TERM...KMC/MAM
LONG TERM...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...JKP
HYDROLOGY...KMC