139
FXUS61 KAKQ 031926
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
326 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front drops into the Mid-Atlantic Friday,
before retreating back to the north Saturday morning. A higher
chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives late Sunday into
Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Much cooler
temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for
below freezing temperatures Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Isolated showers are possible to the far north of the area
  tonight.

A stationary front to the north and west of the area has stalled, as
a surface low pressure moves over the Great Lakes. A warm front
moved through the area this morning bringing warm, muggy
temperatures. Current temps are in the lower 80s in the SE and upper
70s elsewhere. Mostly cloudy skies are starting to break away some
in the SE, but will return overnight and continue for the FA.

A few showers or storms are possible this evening, but the
environment isn`t very favorable. A strong capping inversion from
the warm front and rising heights aren`t conducive of storms
developing and will likely prevent them from doing so. However, the
thermodynamics and kinematic profile are favorable for tstms if they
were to develop. With this mindset, SPC has capped the convective
outlook to marginal in the far north of the CWA. Tonight will be
mostly dry for the FA with mild lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Well above average temperatures Friday for most of the area,
except the Eastern Shore which will see milder temperatures.

- Scattered showers possible Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning, mainly north of Richmond.

A back door cold front will push south through the area Friday
afternoon, breaking the stationary front and above average
temperatures. Before the back door front, temperatures will continue
to be above average reaching the lower to mid 80s for the majority
of the area with the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore staying in the
70s, as the cold air will reach there first. This front will also
bring a chance of scattered showers and storms to the central VA
area on Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Confidence is
not high with PoPs around 30-40%. CAMs models continue to keep most
of the showers in the north of the FA. The front will then stall
around the VA border leaving lows in the mid to upper 50s in VA, mid
60s in NC, and lower 50s on the Eastern Shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near record-breaking high temperatures on Sunday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible
Sunday afternoon through Monday.

- Cooler, seasonable temperatures return next week with possible
freezing low temperatures Tuesday night.

A strong ridge finally overtakes the stalled front this weekend
pushing the front through the area bringing scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms starting Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening. Ahead of the front, temperatures will warm up to near
record breaking highs as a SW wind ushers in warmer, moister air.
Winds will be breezy around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph during
the day Sunday. This warm, moist air will allow some thunderstorms
to form beginning Sunday evening in the NW through Monday morning in
the SE. The 12z/03 ensemble models continue to depict PW values
>200% of seasonal averages (near seasonal max with respect to climo)
with the front on Sunday into Monday. GEFS and EPS have 70-80% probs
for >0.5 inches of rain and around 50% probs for >1.0 inches with
this front. With the saturated air column and forcing mechanism,
higher rainfall rates could be expected.

Behind the front, drier cooler air moves into the area as high
pressure moves into the region. Temperatures will return back to
around normal with highs on Monday in the upper 50s in the N to
upper 60s in the SE with lows in the mid 40s. Tuesday and Wednesday,
temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s. Tuesday night
temperatures will be the coldest with at or below freezing
temperatures (excluding near the coast where temperatures will stay
warmer).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Broken clouds across the area have lifted to VFR conditions (SBY
continues to see high-end MVFR CIGs). A low pressure system to
the north has a stalled front just to the north and west of the
area, which is providing the cloud cover. CIGs will continue to
lift over the next few hours with high clouds remaining for the
majority of the 18z/03 TAF period. SBY should reach VFR CIGs
around 20z. CIGs will begin to decrease again tomorrow morning
around 12-14z as the stalled front gets taken over by a back
door cold front. At this time, only SBY seems to see degraded
flight conditions (MVFR likely, possibly IFR) Friday morning
with the CIGs decreasing. SBY and maybe RIC could see some
tstms/showers with the back door front. Winds are currently out
of the SW with gusts 25-30 kt. Winds will remain slightly
elevated throughout the TAF period, with sustained winds between
10-15 kt until Friday morning around 12-15z, when winds begin
to decrease.

Outlook: Dry/VFR Saturday and Sunday as the front moves back
north of the area. A cold front approaches from the west Sunday
and moves across the area Sunday night into Monday bringing
showers and a few tstms. Flight restrictions are possible during
this time period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions continue over the coastal waters N of Cape
  Charles and across the Chesapeake Bay due to elevated
  southerly winds and seas.

- Another period of SCA conditions is likely later this weekend and
  early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front.

High pressure has now shifted southeast to near Bermuda while low
pressure that was over the Great Lakes yesterday continues to track
northeastward through Ontario/Quebec. SCAs remain in effect for the
bay and rivers as gusty SW winds (to 20-25 kt) continue to bleed
over into these zones due to better mixing over the adjacent land
areas (which are much warmer). SCAs also are in effect in the
coastal waters N of Cape Charles through 08z/4 AM due to ~5 ft seas.
Seas are only 3-4 ft S with the S-SW wind of ~15 kt over the
ocean...so no SCAs S of Cape Charles attm. Winds diminish a bit over
the rivers this evening/tonight (to 15 kt with occasional gusts to
20 kt) but remain gusty over the bay. Therefore, SCAs have been
extended until 08z/4 AM for the bay. Wind speeds diminish to 10-15
kt and become WSW by the middle of Friday morning as a backdoor cold
front approaches from the NNE. That front is progged to slowly cross
the waters during the late morning-early evening. Seas subside to 3
ft with 1-2 ft waves on the bay on Fri. The backdoor front will
likely stall Friday evening before crossing the NE NC waters...but
expect winds to become NE at 10-15 kt (with a few gusts to 20 kt
likely Fri evening) following the FROPA.

By Saturday, the backdoor front will lift back to the north as a
warm front and winds will veer to the SE then S and increase to ~15
kt. Winds will increase further Saturday night to ~20 kt with
frequent 25 kt gusts as the gradient tightens behind the Bermuda
high and an approaching (stronger) cold front. SCA conditions will
likely begin Saturday night and continue through Monday, with a
brief reprieve likely by Monday afternoon. Winds peak during the day
on Sunday with speeds of 20-25 kt likely with gusts as high as 30 kt
(highest on the rivers/nearshore due to mixing over land). The front
will move through the area on Monday, with a secondary front moving
through Monday night into Tuesday. Good CAA is expected behind the
secondary front and another round of SCA conditions is possible
Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Thereafter, high pressure briefly
builds back across the region, resulting in a decrease in wind speed
by Wednesday afternoon. Seas build back to 4-6 ft (with waves of 3-4
ft likely) by Sunday...and both seas and waves remain elevated
through early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634-
     650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ635>638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...AJZ/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...ERI/NB