465
FXUS61 KAKQ 220059
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
759 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several disturbances drop across the area over the next couple
of days, bringing a prolonged period of gusty winds and chilly
temperatures. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in
the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages...

- Second surge of cooler air comes in tonight helping to drop
  temperatures in the upper 20s to low-mid 30s.

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect overnight/early Friday
  morning across interior northeast NC and SE VA (where the
  growing season is still in effect).

The latest analysis shows a potent upper level low centered
across SW PA, with the trough stretching from New England down
towards Florida. At the surface, low pressure along the southern
New England coast continues to intensify (now down to near 990
mb), while the upstream system across northern Indiana
continues to drop to the SE. The coastal sfc low is progged to
become the primary system as it retrogrades NNW overnight into
NY state, while the other low dives SE towards the
central/southern Appalachians, gradually becoming absorbed as
the upper system slowly pivots SE.

Across the local area, temperatures have dropped mainly into the
low-mid 40s with a westerly wind of 5-10 mph (locally higher at
the coast). Not an ideal setup for decoupling given the pressure
gradient, and also the potential for additional mid level clouds
to advect across the region overnight with the upper level
system mvoing closer to the area. Nevertheless, still expect
most inland locations to drop into the 30-35F range overnight,
with some upper 20s possible, mainly along and W of the I-95
corridor. The Freeze Warning remains in effect across mainly
interior portions of SE VA and NE NC (where the growing season
has not yet ended). Given that winds will be localized and
variable, only the more sheltered and rural locations within the
Warning are likely to see a freeze, with suburban/urban areas
more likely to stay just above freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages...

- Another disturbance dropping across the region will provide
another day of gusty winds, and increasing clouds for Friday.

- Widespread showers are expected NE zones by Fri aftn. A few
  instances of graupel or even some wet snowflakes are possible
  over northern portions of the area late Friday morning into
  early afternoon.

- Winds will diminish late this weekend as the trough exits the
  region.

The final shortwave will be transversing across the area Friday
morning as the surface low moves over eastern Pennsylvania and
the upper low diving into the southern Mid-atlantic. This
shortwave will be slightly stronger than the other two. It will
bring in a stronger shot of CAA with highs in the mid/upper 40s
across the Piedmont and northern zones, with lower 50s along
the SE coast. Pops have been extended further south with chc
PoPs down to the I-64 corridor, and likely to categorical pops
farther to the NE. Given the relatively shallow moisture layer
between 850-700 mb farther south, would expect minimal QPF. With
the moisture layer being primarily in the DGZ this could result
in a couple reports of graupel and or even a few snowflakes
primarily north of I-64. This will only last for a brief period
of time late Friday morning before temperatures start to warm.
Ground temperatures would be much too warm for any impacts, but
certainly a sharp contrast from just a few days ago. Showers
will taper down Friday evening allowing the region to dry out.
Fridays lows will be slightly warmer as the upper low moves out
of the area and ridging takes place. Early morning low
temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Saturday and Sunday
will be slightly warmer as ridging continues to take place
across the region. Highs both days in the upper 50s and lower
60s. The lows will be in the middle to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages...

-  High pressure moves back in bringing dry weather back across the
region to start off the weekend.

- Rain potential increases by the end of the week with another
possible system.

The latest 12z/21 ensemble guidance is in decent agreement into
early next week. A ridge and surface high pressure will move into
the area bringing dry and pleasant conditions across the CWA. By the
middle of the week ensembles begin to disagree in placement and
strength of a clipper system ushering in a cold front that will move
across the CWA. Where the low is currently forecasted the region
will see no precipitation from the system but will experience its
cold front. By Thanksgiving day Pops are reintroduced into the
forecast as the ensembles hint on a potential system moving across
the region. There is again disagreement with the models on strength
and placement. However, they do have a decent single on a potential
system bringing in showers across the region. Pops are ranges
between 15-30% for both Thursday and Friday.

Temperature wise both Monday and Tuesday will be pleasant with highs
warming back into the upper 50s to around 60s on Monday, with highs
in the lower 60s by midweek. Early morning lows warm back into the
40s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Then Wednesday highs will cool
down into the lower the 50s behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail across the region with variably cloudy
skies but all CIGs are 5k ft or higher. Winds tonight will be
westerly at around 10 kt. On Friday, winds once again become
gusty by late morning through the aftn from the W-SW at ~15 kt
with gusts to 20-30kt. Clouds increase, with scattered to
numerous showers expected across the NE by aftn. Have included
MVFR flight restrictions in -SHRA at SBY late in the TAF
period, generally too low of a chance for anything more than
VCSH at the other terminals, though BKN conditions are expected
after 18-21Z.

Outlook: Winds shift to the NW and remain gusty Friday night
into Saturday, before gradually diminishing Saturday night into
Sunday. Flight restrictions at SBY Friday night, otherwise
becoming dry for the rest of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 700 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all local waters
  through Friday afternoon.

- Gale Warnings have been issued for most waters from late
  Friday afternoon through Friday night. Gale Watches remain in
  effect for area rivers.

The region currently is between two areas of low pressure, one
off the NJ coast and a second area over Lake Michigan. Winds
have remained at low end SCA levels through this afternoon.
Expect these winds to continue through the overnight hours as
another shortwave trough rotates through the broad closed low.
As the wave hits the coast toward 12z, winds could increase a
little and some rain showers are possible too. But SCA
conditions will persist into Friday even after this wave passes
off the coast.

The last wave that will impact the area with this upper trough
arrives late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This wave
will help a stronger sfc low over PA to drop SE off the DE coast
by early Saturday morning. The combination of the Cold Advection
and tighten pressure gradient will kick winds up to 30 - 35 kt
with gust around 40 kt possible. Wind probs for 34 kt gusts are
high for this surge with probs between 70% - 90%. SCA
conditions will continue Sat before winds gradually diminish
Sat night into Sun as high pressure builds in. As a result have
issued a Gale Warning for tomorrow afternoon into Saturday
morning for all except the area rivers where confidence is still
only moderate that gale force winds will be experienced. So have
left the Gale Watch in place for now.

Waves and seas have subsided to 2-3 ft on the Bay and 4 - 6 FT
on the ocean this afternoon. The seas will remain in this range
through Friday afternoon before increasing again Friday night
into Saturday with the strong surge of winds and then gradually
subsiding Sat afternoon into Sunday as high pressure returns to
the area.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for VAZ089-090-092-
     093-096-097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ630>638-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ630>634-638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
     ANZ635>637.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...HET/LKB
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...HET/LKB
MARINE...ESS/RMM