023
FXUS61 KAKQ 161755
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1255 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front passes through this morning ushering in much drier air
and gusty winds. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast
for today. High pressure briefly builds in on Monday before the
next weather system brings a quick chance of rain for parts of
the area later Tuesday. Scattered light rain chances may linger
into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 935 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

-  Cold front passing through the area this morning ushering in
   much drier air and windy conditions. Red Flag Warning is in
   effect for most of the area for critical fire weather
   conditions.

Strong low pressure is located near the ME coast this morning,
with a cold front (mainly a dewpoint boundary and wind shift
initially) trailing to the southwest into northern VA.
Temperatures are in the mid 60s to around 70F this morning given
a warm start to the day. The wind is W 10-15 mph with gusts to
20-25 mph. Any sprinkles ahead of the front have now pushed
offshore with mostly sunny conditions outside of any bands of
clouds.

The main story for today will be the very dry air rushing in
behind the cold front. Guidance has dewpoints plummeting into
the lower 20s to upper teens from west to east by mid-day/early
afternoon. Additionally, the pressure gradient is tightening
significantly around a broad area of low pressure along the
US/Canadian border as it moves eastward into New England today.
Westerly/downsloping winds have already picked up across the
area as of early this morning, but will continue to strengthen
throughout the day. The strongest winds are expected after mid-
day through the afternoon hours. Wind gusts up to 25-35mph are
forecast for most locations, with the Eastern Shore seeing gusts
upwards of 35-40mph. This dry and windy weather will create
critical fire weather conditions for the entire area. Please see
the Fire Weather Section below for details on the Red Flag
Warning and Increased Fire Danger statement. Bottom line up
front: do not do any activities today that could create a spark
or initiate burning as fires will be able to spread rapidly.
High temperatures will be able to warm into the upper 60s and
lower 70s south of I-64 as the downsloping outweighs any cold
air advection initially. Northern locations will hover in the
lower to mid 60s. The cold air will push in overnight though as
low temperatures drop into the lower 30s for the
northwest/northern locations and mid to upper 30s elsewhere.
Winds will subside for everyone inland, though coastal spots and
the Eastern Shore will keep the breeziness around into the
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler on Monday with breezy conditions persisting for the Eastern
Shore.

- Next weather system moves in later Tuesday with rain chances for
portions of the area.

The pressure gradient will start to relax on Monday as the low
pressure moves off into Nova Scotia and surface high pressure
builds in locally. This will allow winds to be much less
elevated for most of the area, though some breezes to 15-20mph
will be possible inland. Coastal locations and the Eastern Shore
will still see gusts up to 25-30mph through the day as the back
edge of the pressure gradient lingers. Temperatures will be
noticeably cooler as highs range from the upper 50s in the
southwest to barely reaching 50 degrees across the northeast
(including the Eastern Shore). Overnight lows will be the
coldest of the period as they dip below freezing for everyone
except the immediate coast. Rural inland and the typical cooler
spots will bottom out in the upper 20s.

Clouds will be on the increase as we wake up Tuesday morning due to
a weakening surface low pressure approaching from the west. Models
generally agree that rain chances increase from west to east late
Tuesday afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. However,
current trends now indicate that most of the 30-40% rain chances
will be north of US-460. Not expecting a super beneficial rainfall
from it, but due to being so dry lately, any rainfall is welcome.
Overnight model runs are showing maybe a quarter to possibly
half an inch if we`re lucky, and again, primarily across the
north. High temperatures will only be in the mid to upper 50s
for the south and lower 50s for the north. Overnight temps won`t
be quite as frigid, dipping into the lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler Wednesday before gradually warming temperatures for the
remainder of the week.

- Passing disturbances may create slight chances of rain.

Some lingering showers may be possible across the east first thing
Wednesday morning as the aforementioned weather system moves
offshore. High pressure briefly builds in for the day though
temperatures will remain on the cooler side with highs in the mid to
upper 60s across the S/SW and mid to upper 50s for the NE. Skies
will stay partly cloudy as another disturbance approaches the area
Thursday. Details don`t exactly align on the latest guidances, but
a slight chance of a shower has been added for the northern half of
the area Thursday morning/early afternoon. A low pressure system is
still expected to move out of the Midwest into the Great Lakes
region Friday into Saturday, but models are weakening it as it
moves east now. This doesn`t give us as strong of southerly flow
as models were showing 24 hours ago. Instead, it`s more
west/southwesterly ahead of the advancing system. High
temperatures will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s on
Friday, with the potential of some rain chances to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Sunday...

A primarily dry cold front is crossing the region as of 18z.
VFR under a partly to mostly sunny sky with a W to NW wind of
15-20kt gusting to 25-30kt. This wind should continue through
the aftn with occasional gusts to 30-35kt through ~23z. VFR
conditions continue tonight into Monday. Remaining breezy this
evening (through 02-04z) with a NW wind ~10kt gusting to
15-20kt, before relaxing overnight. Sunny Monday with a NW wind
of 10-12kt with gusts ~20kt, and locally 15-20kt with gusts
25-30kt at SBY.

Continued VFR Monday night through most of Tuesday. A chance of
light rain and degraded flight conditions will return Tuesday
night as a quick-moving low pressure system passes through,
especially for RIC-PHF-SBY and north. Primarily VFR Wednesday
through Friday as high pressure returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Gale Warnings remain in effect later today into Monday morning
  for the Ocean N of Cape Charles and the Bay N of Windmill
  Point, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for all other
  zones.

- Winds remain elevated Monday, then drop off significantly
  Tuesday.

SW winds of 15-25 kt prevail early this morning in the warm
airmass out ahead of an approaching cold front. The pressure
gradient will tend to weaken for a few hrs this morning and
winds may drop off to 10-20 kt as the winds shift to the W.

The cold front will cross the waters late this morning through
early aftn, though the best CAA doesn`t arrive until late
afternoon/early evening and will maximize this evening through
the early overnight period. The rivers (and far northern Bay
and Ocean) may see the strongest winds this aftn, while the
remainder of the Ocean, especially S of Cape Charles may not
really see the stronger winds until late aftn/early evening
other than perhaps a brief uptick with the wind shift. Kept the
headlines as they were, with the best chance for a longer
duration Gale event (with gusts to 35-40 kt) being confined to
the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. The Bay N of Windmill
Pt and the Ocean from Parramore to Cape Charles will likely see
frequent gusts to around 35 kt for a 3-6 hr period this evening.
Occasional gusts to 35 kt are possible elsewhere, mainly this
evening, but think the threat for these areas is best handled
with a high-end SCA and an SMW if needed for ~2 hrs. Gale
Warnings are in effect until 12z/7 AM Monday, though SCAs will
be needed for all of the ocean and bay through the day Monday as
residual CAA continues on the waters. Another uptick/surge in
winds is probable Monday night as the pattern depicts sfc high
pressure still W of the waters until The day Tuesday. This could
allow for additional CAA with SCAs lingering through Monday
night (mainly the upper Bay). Much lighter winds are then
expected Tuesday as the high settles in from the W. A weak
system passes through the area late Tuesday night/Wednesday,
likely shifting the winds to the NNE though at this time no
significant low pressure system is depicted by any of the models
so sub-SCA continue through late in the week.


Seas average 2-3 ft through this evening, building to 3-6 ft
(locally 7 ft out 20 nm) late tonight through Sunday/early Monday.
The offshore wind direction should prevent seas from building much
higher. Waves in the Chesapeake Bay will average 1-2 ft today, then
2-5 ft late tonight through Sunday night/Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

A dry cold front will cross the region this morning with gusty winds
and rapidly falling humidity values through the afternoon. Lack
of appreciable rainfall and very dry fuels will combine with
these gusty winds to create dangerous fire weather conditions
across most of the area Sunday morning through late afternoon.

After coordination with neighboring offices and local forestry
officials, as well as the Storm Prediction Center highlighting
an area of critical fire weather conditions, a Red Flag Warning
has been issued for all of our Virginia counties/independent
cities except the Eastern Shore. The Red Flag Warning also
includes Northampton, Hertford, Gates and Bertie counties in
North Carolina. Areas not in the Warning (the MD/VA Eastern
Shore and coastal NE NC) are in a Special Weather Statement for
Increased Fire Danger, excluding the Outer Banks. All burning is
highly discouraged and extreme care must be exercised with any
sources of sparks (power tools, dragging chains, hot motors,
discarded cigarettes, etc) today as fires will be capable of
spreading very rapidly.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 6 PM EST this evening for
     MDZ021>025.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 6 PM EST this evening for
     NCZ015>017-031-032.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NCZ012>014-
     030.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ099-
     100.
     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630-
     650-652-654.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ631-632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ633-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB/SW
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ