478
FXUS61 KAKQ 191040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast trends of unsettled and potentially impactful weather
along the coast continue for much of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Generally calm conditions this weekend ahead of the next cold
front.

2) Persistent onshore flow and a potentially strengthening coastal
low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally calm conditions this weekend ahead of the
next cold front.

Early morning surface analysis shows that the slow-moving cold front
has finally made it south of our local area. It has left light
northeast winds and an abundance of scattered low to mid clouds in
its wake. Hi-res models continue to show showers developing through
daybreak, especially across eastern VA, but radar trends have been
much quieter than expected so far overnight. There are a few
radar returns trying to develop as of this writing in Louisa and
Fluvanna Counties, as well as across the Middle Peninsula. Will
keep the chance of rain in the forecast through 8-9am due to
model persistence and expanding low cloud coverage. A broad
surface high pressure will move across southeastern Canada into
New England today resulting in a rather benign mid-Septmber
day. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy as high
temperatures top out in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees
across western locations and the Eastern Shore, with lower 80s
along the I-95 corridor and east. Dewpoints should be able to
fall a few degrees into the mid to upper 60s, so it shouldn`t
feel quite as sticky outside as it did yesterday. Can`t rule out
a light shower across the Eastern Shore this afternoon. Areas
closer to the coast will see wind gusts of 12-15mph this
afternoon.

The area of high pressure moves offshore by Sunday morning as the
next cold front pushes into the Ohio River Valley. Winds will become
south/southwesterly allowing temperatures to warm back up into mid
to upper 80s (lower 80s for the Eastern Shore). This will be our
last day of widespread 80s for at least this current forecast
period. Expect to see more breaks of sunshine, especially across
southern counties. The front will nudge closer to our northern/western
CWA border by late Sunday potentially bringing some showers
along with it. Sunday night low temperatures will be a smidge
milder in the mid to upper 60s as cloud cover and scattered rain
chances return.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a potentially
strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier
forecast next week.

Big changes are in store beginning Monday as a much more unsettled
pattern sets its eyes on the eastern US for much of the week. The
aforementioned cold front will slowly move through our area late
Monday into Tuesday as a large ridge of high pressure becomes
established across the Great Lakes into the Hudson Bay Region
of Canada. The slow progression of the front will allow for
rain/storm chances to persist through the day on Monday.
However, it should be noted that rainfall totals have trended
downwards for Monday. WPC has also removed the Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall, but keeping a Marginal Risk in place.
Northeast winds will become breezy later in the day, especially
for coastal locations. Northern counties behind the front will
see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. To the south, one
last day of mid 80s are expected - our far southern NC counties
could even see some upper 80s.

Upper ridge shifts a bit eastward on Tuesday as onshore flow
strengthens for us here locally. Northeast winds look to increase
for eastern areas during the day on Tuesday, likely lasting
through at least Thursday as a low pressure system develops and
strengthens over the Atlantic off of the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coast. There remain model differences in
exact placement and strength of this low, but regardless, trends
continue to highlight potentially impactful weather for our
area - especially along the coast - for multiple days. Rain
chances will also continue each day through the week, possibly
leading to periods of localized flooding. WPC has a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall for most of the area on Tuesday. High
temperatures will be below normal for the remainder of the week,
potentially in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. Please stay tuned
to the forecast for next week as this system develops and
potentially brings several coastal hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Saturday...

Cold front has pushed south of our local area this morning.
Mostly VFR cigs persist, with pockets of MVFR in the lower
cloud decks scattered about. A few SHRA continue to pop up south
of RIC, but chances will subside generally after 15Z.
Otherwise, ENE winds will become 8-12kt today (highest at ECG
and ORF). Can`t rule out an isolated -SHRA along the MD Eastern
Shore this afternoon, but expected to remain dry with SCT-BKN
VFR cigs elsewhere. E winds become light overnight.

Outlook: Another cold front slowly crosses the region Monday
into Tuesday bringing a more unsettled pattern with degraded
flight conditions through at least mid-week. Eastern terminals
may also have elevated winds for an extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast through the weekend, though
a period of low-end SCAs due to 5 foot seas is possible from this
evening-tonight across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Elevated NE
to E winds prevail through tonight.

- Decent model consensus that strong high pressure becomes locked in
place across eastern Canada/northern New England next week, bringing
several days of onshore flow and the increasing potential for gales.
SCA level winds are forecast by Monday night/Tuesday, with the
highest winds likely occurring from late Tuesday night through
Thursday.

A cold front remains south of the waters early this morning with E-
NE winds around 10 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. A slightly
stronger push of CAA will arrive today, which will allow wind speeds
to increase to ~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt as the wind direction
gradually veers to the E by this evening. Winds will then shift E-SE
by Sunday night, with a slight decrease in wind speed. The wind
speed forecast has trended down a couple knots when compared to
yesterday. Therefore, while seas could briefly build to 5 ft S of
Cape Charles by this evening/tonight before winds weaken, there is
not enough confidence to issue a SCA just for seas. Will continue to
monitor though. Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Sunday-Sunday
night with SE winds veering to the S then SW in advance of a
stronger cold front.

While there is some uncertainty with respect to timing, that
stronger front is progged to cross at least the northern half of the
marine area by late Monday/Mon night, but may struggle to move south
of the rest of the area until Tuesday. Following the FROPA, winds
become NE and initially increase to 20-25 kt as strong surface high
pressure (normalized anomalies ~2 std dev) starts to build in over
eastern Canada. Stronger CAA from the high doesn`t look to make it
to the area until Wednesday or Thursday, as a low pressure system
deepens off the Atlantic coast. Significant to potentially dangerous
marine conditions are possible from late Tuesday night through
Thursday as NE winds increase in response to the tightening pressure
gradient between the strong high to our north and deepening sfc low
offshore. Confidence in a period of northeasterly gale force gusts
(35-40+ kt) is increasing, with the most likely timeframe being from
Wednesday-Thursday. Solid SCA level winds will likely continue
through the end of next week as the low potentially lingers
offshore. Of course, this is still several days away, so the timing
and placement of the synoptic scale systems are not locked in place
yet, but there continues to be quite a strong consensus amongst the
Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles in the general pattern. We will
continue to monitor the trends as this gets closer in time. Seas
likely build to 9-13+ ft by Wed/Thu due to the prolonged onshore
flow.

There is a moderate rip current risk for all beaches today and
Sunday as the flow becomes onshore again. Will note that short
periods (~4-5 s) and increasing waves heights of 3-4 ft may cause
more of a washing machine effect than rip currents. Dangerous
surfing conditions are likely by the middle of next week with the
prolonged onshore flow. Localized beach erosion is possible from mid
to late next week as well depending on how things evolve.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JKP
AVIATION...AC/JKP
MARINE...ERI