228
FXUS61 KAKQ 121500
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1100 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front crosses the area this afternoon, bringing
cooler weather to coastal areas. The boundary lingers near the area
Thursday into Friday, before eventually lifting north of the area
Saturday as a stronger system approaches Saturday night into Sunday.
High pressure returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A backdoor cold front drops across the area into this
  evening.

- Temperatures slowly fall along the Eastern Shore this
  afternoon, while markedly milder conditions persist farther
  inland.

Latest analysis reveals ~1000mb low pressure situated over
Atlantic Canada late this morning with the associated (dry)
backdoor cold front offshore of the New England coast and
extending back SW and is now aligned just N of the VA/NC border
at midday, extending back into the lower OH Valley. As is
typical with these synoptic setups, there will be a decently
sharp temperature gradient across the area today. Areas over the
eastern shore have experienced their high for the day this
morning, and will remain steady then observe falling temps this
afternoon. Locations along the Maryland Atlantic coast will fall
into the 40s in the late afternoon and evening. Meanwhile,
areas along and west of I-95 will remain warm. Locations SW of
US-460 remain in the mid- upper 70s, with portions of far S VA
into interior NE NC potentially touching 80F.

Marine airmass will push inland tonight and make for a cooler
night and more cloudy night tonight, especially NE sections.
Patchy fog is likely over the Eastern Shore, northern neck and
VA peninsulas. Model soundings still continue to show patchy
drizzle along the coast as well, owing to the light onshore flow
and subsequent shallow isentropic lift. A chilly and raw night
typical of mid- March is anticipated with lows in the low to mid
40s (some upper 30s are possible in the typically cooler spots
across the N/NW). Milder upper 40s to around 50 just south of
the front across N NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A nearly stationary front wobbles north across the area Thursday,
before pushing back closer to the VA/NC border Thursday night into
Friday.

Thursday will be tricky with respect to temperatures. The backdoor
front from today will still be in the region. Deterministic guidance
from 00z/12 has the front near or N of the VA/NC border to begin the
day, lifting it northward, though remaining stalled over N portions
of the area by Thursday evening. The NAM remains the outlier in
keeping the front farther south and hence the entire area cooler.
The other fly in the ointment will be weak low pressure which will
ride the fast, flat flow aloft as it crosses the mid- south and
Carolinas Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. While there
will be little in the way of any moisture left with this system,
there very well could be an increase in cloudiness from this system
that will need to be monitored for later in the day Thursday. Highs
on Thursday will range from the upper 50s to low/mid 60s along/north
of I-64 (coolest readings along the immediate coast/NE) to the upper
60s to lower 70s roughly south of I-64 (some locations interior NE
NC mid 70s). As we typically see this time of year, would not be
shocked for the front to make slower progress north then what the
deterministic models are showing, thus resulting in cooler daytime
highs Thursday. Thursday night will again feature lows in the 40s,
with some patchy fog once again possible.

A strong low pressure system begins to form in the Midwest late this
week while high pressure slides over the northeast of the US. Cooler
air wins over the front still draped across the region Friday
morning with temperature trending cooler. Highs on Friday range from
the lower 70s across the far S/SW to the 50s across the E/NE. A
majority of the area (inland) will see highs in the low to mid 60s.
The front begins to lift back to the north as a warm front Friday
night/Saturday AM as the strong system approaches. Lows will range
from the lower 50s SW to the lower 40s NE with increasing cloud
cover Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures in the 70s on Saturday and Sunday for
most.

- A few thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening as a
strong system moves through the area with increasing shower chances.

As the strong low pressure system moves further east, a warm front
pushes north through the area Saturday bringing above average high
temperatures in the upper 70s inland, lower 70s along the water, and
mid to upper 60s on the Eastern Shore.

The strong low pressure system will track northward of the Midwest
dragging a cold front through the region Sunday evening/night.
Before the front reaches the area, temps will reach the mid to upper
70s for most of the area (mid 60s to lower 70s for the Eastern
Shore), with dewpoints near 60F. A few thunderstorms are possible
with some instability. SPC has included all of the CWA in a 15% day
5 severe weather outlook, primarily for damaging winds with the line
of convection. In addition to the severe weather threat, the
synoptic wind will also be quite strong due to the pressure gradient
between the strong low to our north and high pressure offshore.
Model soundings at this time are already hinting at the potential
for 40+ mph wind gusts Sunday afternoon. Widespread showers are
increasingly likely during this timeframe with ensemble probs
showing a moderate to high probability (50-90%) of QPF between 0.5-
1.0 inches for the majority of the CWA. The precip could linger into
the first half of Monday before drying out into early next week. The
cold front won`t bring a very cool air mass with highs on Monday in
the low to mid 60s and Tuesday in the mid 60s to upper 60s for most
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR prevails through this evening, with sub-VFR conditions
possible at SBY tonight. SKC this morning continues through
this afternoon and evening. Light and variable or a light
southerly wind is expected into this morning. A backdoor cold
front drops S through the area later this morning, with a wind
shift to the N and then NE. Wind speeds generally in the 5-10 kt
range, though SBY and ORF could see some 10-15 kt winds. The
wind direction may eventually become easterly this afternoon.
No precip is expected w/ the front. Patchy fog and/or stratus
tries to develop very late in the forecast period with the best
chances along the immediate coast/SBY.

Outlook: Patchy fog is possible tonight through Friday night,
with guidance most aggressive along the coast tonight. Outside
of fog, mainly VFR is expected. The next chance for rain and
sub- VFR is Sunday along/ahead of a stronger cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-Sub-advisory conditions anticipated through the remainder of the week

-SCAs likely this weekend ahead of a strong front

High pressure is ridging up the southeast coast early this morning
with an area of low pressure offshore well to the SE. Latest wind
obs reflect SW winds around 10kt. SCAs for the coastal waters S of
Cape Charles were cancelled due to seas trending down below 5ft.
Buoy obs show 3-4ft seas, approaching 5ft out near 20nm. Waves are
around 1ft (2ft in mouth of the bay). A backdoor cold front sags
across the region later this morning, turning winds to the NE
through Wed morning. While winds generally look to remain around
10kt, there could be a brief increase to ~15 over northern coastal
waters during the late morning/early afternoon. Seas of 3-4ft,
occasionally to 5ft, persist through the day. Will note that there
is a chance for some fog over the marine areas N of the front
tonight into Thurs morning. Sub-SCA conditions are anticipated
through the end of the week with flow generally onshore around 10kt.
Some variation in wind direction is anticipated, though, since the
backdoor front from this morning will remain in the vicinity through
at least Thurs. The next chance at SCAs will be over the weekend
with southerly flow ahead of a strong front. At this point, winds
look to increase through the day Saturday and remain elevated
through Sunday with highest winds expected Sunday afternoon. This
will of course come down to the timing of the cold front, which
still has some uncertainty.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJB/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB/SW
MARINE...AC