741
FXUS61 KAKQ 111040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to slide further south today allowing
for a more humid airmass to move in place. Daily chances of
showers and storms are expected primarily across the southern
half of the area today. High pressure will migrate further south
through the week allowing for temperatures to warm and allow
for the daily chances of showers to return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Chances of an isolated shower and thunderstorm increases
  across the south.

- Some localized flooding is possible with the heavier
  thunderstorm this afternoon.

The upper level ridge continues to hold in place across the eastern
half of the United States this morning. While to the west a weak
trough continues to move across the central Great Plains. At the
surface, high pressure continues to remain off shore of Delmarva.
While to the south a stationary front is currently located just
south of the CWA. Sky`s remain mostly cloudy to cloudy across VA/NC
as clouds continue to increase a head of the approaching frontal
boundary. While across MD and the Eastern Shore Sky`s remain mostly
clear. These clouds are leading to a temperature`s staying a little
warmer across the south than across the north. Temperatures as of
6am are in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the south and
coastline and lower to middle 60s across the north. The patchy
fog did not materialized well across the piedmont due to the
abundance of cloud cover. However, across NE NC some patch fog
has developed due to the influx of moisture.

Through the day high pressure will continue to move south further
off the coast of VA/NC. This will allow for warmer and more humid
air mass to move back in place across the area. PW values are
progged to be between 1.6 to 1.9" along and north of I-64 and
between 2-2.2" south of  I-64. Cape is also expected to build
through the day but only ~1000 ML cape is expected due to the lack
of daytime heating thanks to the abundance of cloud cover. These ATM
ingredients will allow for showers and or storms to potentially pose
the risk of strong wet downbursts. However, given the lack of shear
in place no organized severe weather is expected. In addition to the
wet downbursts, localized heavy rain fall is expected primarily
across the SE. Any storm could potentially pose the risk of heavy
rain that could lead to localized flooding especially in urban and
poor drainage areas. Most areas may receive upwards of .5 to 1"
of QPF across the SE. However, cannot rule out localized 2-3"
with any heavy thunderstorm.  Temperatures today will be in the
lower 80s across the south and coastline due to the continuance
of cloud cover and middle 80s to the north where more sunshine
is expected. For tonight showers and storms are expected to
clear due to the loss of day time heating and lows will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s across the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity gradually increase both Tuesday and
Wednesday.

- Daily chances of showers and storms continue with the better
chance Wednesday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.


The upper level ridge will slide further east early Tuesday and the
trough across the central United States will begin to slowly nudge
towards the area. While at the surface high pressure will be off the
SE coast. Temperatures will continue to warm with highs in the upper
to middle 80s across the CWA. Additionally dew points will also rise
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will allow for Heat Indices to
be in the lower to middle 90s. Daily chances of storms continue in
the afternoon of Tuesday as a lee trough begins to form just west of
the CWA. No severe storms are expected due to the continue weak flow
aloft. However, a localized heavy downpour is possible due to weak
modest instability and high PW. By Wednesday, primarily zonal flow
will be across the area with a weak shortwave moving across. A
cold/stationary front at the surface will slowly approach the area.
Ahead of the frontal boundary a warm and humid airmass will be in
place with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With the
humid airmass in place Heat Indices will be approaching near 100.
Additionally, with adequate daytime heating modest cape is expected
to build. Additionally, there will be some weak shear in place ~25kt
which is enough to support more organized convection. Confidence is
low at the time but with the weak shear and modest instability in
place there is the possibility that some of these showers and storms
Wednesday could pose the risk of gusty to strong winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Near seasonable temperatures are expected in the extended
forecast.

- Chances for daily late afternoon and evening showers and  storms
return through the forecast period. However, the  potential for
widespread severe weather remains low.

The 00z ensemble guidance continues to remain in decent agreement
with the over all synoptic pattern in the extended. An upper level
trough will eject just north of the area Thursday and a new but weak
ridge will build back into place. High pressure at the surface will
centered over the area. This high pressure will allow for
temperatures by the middle to late next week be near seasonable.
Highs Thurs through Sat will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Daily
chances for showers and storms continue through the extended. Severe
weather isn`t a significant concern through this period, with shear
remaining weak/not supportive of organized convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Monday...

Clouds have begun to increase across the area ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary. These clouds have brought in a
mixture of flight restrictions across the area. While most
terminals are experiencing VFR conditions PHF and RIC are
experiencing MVFR as lower clouds move over the terminals.
Latest real time data suggest that these MVFR conditions at RIC
is expected to continue as additional low level clouds continue
to approach the area. There is the possibility of IFR conditions
at RIC between ~11z to 14z. Across the eastern terminals VFR
conditions are expected to prevail this morning but as the
lower clouds push north expect these conditions to return back
to MVFR. SBY should remain VFR through the day as the frontal
boundary stays to the south. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected across the SE today bringing additional flight
restrictions to PHF, ORF, ECG. These storms are not expected
until the afternoon.

Outlook: Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through the week. Confidence is highest Mon with
generally low-moderate confidence for the rest of the week.
Additionally, given increasing heat and humidity, MVFR CIGs will
continue to be possible through the week with potentially IFR
CIGs and/or VIS (due to fog) possible at night in some
locations.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues across all beaches
today, with a Moderate Risk across the southern beaches on Tuesday.

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

High pressure continues to slowly shift off the New England/Mid
Atlantic coast early this morning. Winds are E-SE at 5-10 kt with 2-
3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. The area of high pressure is progged to
gradually build SE over the next few days, allowing for generally
benign marine conditions. Winds remain E-SE today and increase to 10-
15 kt this afternoon/evening before becoming S tonight and
diminishing back to 5-10 kt. Winds remain SW to SE through early Thu
with a return to light (5-10 kt) onshore flow by Fri. Waves and seas
remain generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively through the week.

Have expanded the Moderate rip current risk to include all beaches
today. With the E-SE flow (which is shore normal for the northern
beaches) and 8-9 second periods, feel that the moderate is warranted
for the northern beaches as well. The Moderate rip current risk
persists across the S beaches on Tuesday due to lingering shore-
normal swell and 2-3 ft seas. Will note that the periods increase to
9-10 seconds on Tue across all beaches. As such, the Moderate rip
current risk may need to be expanded to include the N beaches. The
rip risk drops to low at all area beaches on Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...ERI/RMM