181
FXUS61 KAKQ 140124
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
924 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled pattern continues through Friday with daily chances for
scattered showers and storms. A weak backdoor cold front moves
through late Thursday into early Friday with slightly cooler
conditions expected Friday and Saturday. Warmer and drier weather is
expected Sunday into Monday with below normal temperatures returning
by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 925 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warm and humid overnight with patchy fog possible early
  tomorrow morning.

Latest wx analysis shows a weakening upper ridge over the
eastern CONUS, with a shortwave aloft tracking E/ENE across the
area. Sfc high pressure is well offshore with an approaching
cold front to the NW, on the other side of the Appalachians. Convection
has tapered off this evening with only a few light showers in
the area, primarily across northern counties. Widely scattered
showers will continue over the next few hours, then drying out
by the early morning. Warm and humid conditions are expected
overnight with lows in the low-mid 70s and RHs near 100%.
Guidance suggests that some patchy fog may form early tomorrow
morning, primarily inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity increase Thursday with max heat
  indices of 95-103F.

- Locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible on Thursday
  along and south of I-64 as scattered late afternoon/evening
  storms develop.

- Storm chances decrease on Saturday as the low-level flow
  becomes onshore.

A weak backdoor cold front (mainly a wind shift) approaches from the
north on Thursday, pushing through the entire FA by early Fri. This
will allow for another round of scattered afternoon/evening storms
with the focus along and south of I-64 (mainly south). The general
model consensus is for showers and storms to congeal across SE VA/NE
NC Thu evening into early Thu night (through around midnight). The
rainfall signal has increased with the 12z guidance and HREF now
shows a bullseye of 50% probs for 3" of rain in 3 hours across this
region. While this level of confidence normally is enough to warrant
a Flood Watch, given that the timing of the heavy rain isn`t until
mainly Thu evening, will opt to wait for the 00z guidance to see if
the signal persists. If it does, a Flood Watch will likely be needed
for a portion of SE VA/NE NC. In any case, localized totals of 2-4"
(potentially even higher) are possible along with localized
flooding. Additionally, cannot rule out a few locally strong wind
gusts as well.

Rain chances persist into Fri afternoon with scattered showers and
isolated storms possible. However, with NE surface winds, confidence
is low on thunder. Nevertheless, locally heavy rainfall is possible
if showers can train. The best chance for rain is once again along
and south of I-64 focused perhaps along the I-95 corridor. Localized
flooding is once again possible, but with much lower confidence than
Thu. Drier conditions are expected Sat, however, cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm across mainly the Piedmont.

Outside of the rain chances, temps remain generally seasonable with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thu, upper 80s Fri, and mid-
upper 80s on Sat. Dew points also increase on Thu into the mid to
locally upper 70s which will allow for heat indices to increase to
95-103F across the area. Heat indices below 100F are expected Fri
and Sat. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected each night
(generally lower 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm weather continues into early next week.

- Little to no convection is expected Sun-Mon. Isolated afternoon/evening
  storms are possible on Tue.

Upper ridging builds back over the eastern CONUS on Sunday, with the
flow becoming NW early next week as the ridge retreats to the W/SW
and a cold front approaches from the north. Warm dry weather is
expected on Sunday with a very low chance for a few isolated
showers/storms on Monday. Shower/storm chances remain low on Tue.
Turning to the tropics, model/ensemble consensus shows TC Erin
tracking to a position well off the FL/GA coast by the end of the
period (Tue night). Local impacts from Erin (direct or indirect)
would likely be just after Day 7. Of course, the future track is
highly uncertain this far out but model/ensemble consensus continues
to favor a recurving storm well offshore with potential wave and rip
current impacts to the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Wednesday...

Convective activity has tapered off this evening, but could
still see some light showers at RIC and SBY over the next couple
of hours. Another round of low stratus is possible tonight,
with reduced VSBY also possible inland. Winds stay SW through
tonight, with speeds around 10 kt this afternoon, decreasing to
5 kt or less tonight. Low-level clouds may linger through most
of the morning hours Thursday.

Outlook: Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through the week. MVFR CIGs will continue to be
possible through the week with potentially IFR CIGs and/or VSBY
(due to fog) possible near sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

- Winds and seas become elevated by the middle of next week as
  likely Hurricane Erin situates offshore. SCA conditions are
  likely on the coastal waters and at the mouth of the
  Chesapeake Bay.

A large area of high pressure offshore is leading to continuing S-SW
winds across the waters this afternoon, with wind speeds generally
around 10 kt. Similar winds are forecast into tonight. Light
and variable winds are expected by Thursday afternoon as a weak
surface trough sets up W of the waters. The only exception is
locally higher winds and waves from scattered showers and
storms, especially for the southern Chesapeake Bay and southern
coastal waters in the late afternoon and evening. A weak cold
front drops south early Friday morning, bringing a wind shift to
the NE by Friday afternoon. While winds are currently forecast
to remain sub-SCA, NE winds could gust to around 20 kt at times
from late Friday night into Saturday. A similar wind and wind
direction, albeit probably a tad weaker, prevails into Sunday.
High pressure generally remains in control for the early part of
the next week with an onshore wind direction. Into the middle
of next week, the wind forecast becomes a bit more uncertain as
Tropical Cyclone (likely Hurricane) Erin encroaches into the
southwest Atlantic. Depending on how close the center gets to
the local area (and the size of the storm), a period of
increased gradient winds is possible. Either way, increasingly
agitated swell could impinge into the local waters by as early
as later Monday or Tuesday of next week, with seas likely to
build to 5-7+ ft.

With generally benign winds and seas forecast through the remainder
of the week, the rip risk will be low at all area beaches through
Friday, likely continuing through the weekend. However, will
need to keep an eye on Saturday with the gusty onshore winds
(which could build nearshore waves to around 3 ft). With
increasing swell and long wave periods expected by early to mid
next week, the rip current risk will likely increase sharply
starting Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...AC/SW
MARINE...SW/NB