169
FXUS61 KAKQ 211955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
255 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area leads to dry weather this afternoon
through the weekend. A clipper system brings a slight chance for
showers Tuesday, with a better chance of rain by late next
week. Temperatures will also gradually moderate through the
forecast period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 255 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Clear skies and light winds will lead to radiational cooling
  overnight, dropping lows into the teens to lower 20s.

GOES Visible imagery highlights an expansive snowpack across our
forecast area, as well as some good cloud streets off the coast,
indicating CAA. Temperatures across the area have risen into the
upper 30s to near 40 degrees this afternoon, but areas with the
highest snowpack in SE VA and NE NC generally remain in the mid-30s.
An expansive area of high pressure centered across the Mississippi
River Valley is maintaining our northwesterly breezes this
afternoon. The gradient between this feature and a strong low near
Newfoundland is driving our elevated winds. As the low in the North
Atlantic continues to move further northeastward this evening, the
gradient will relax further. The aforementioned high will gradually
shift eastward and finally settle across our area tonight into early
Saturday. With high pressure and dry air dominating the region
through Saturday, no precipitation is expected. Low temperatures
tonight will drop back into the teens to lower 20s, with radiational
cooling expected as winds slacken further and cloud coverage remains
minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Cool with increased clouds Saturday afternoon; milder and
  sunnier Sunday.

High pressure will remain the dominant feature for a majority of the
day Saturday. Abundant sunshine will help temperatures reach the
lower to mid 40s during the day. These temperatures are still well
below normal, but will likely feel almost nice in comparison to the
past few days, especially with the lighter winds. A shortwave will
swing across our area Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning,
bringing increasing cloudiness overnight Saturday but no
precipitation. This cloud cover on Saturday night will lead to less
than optimal conditions for radiational cooling, so temperatures
will only drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Cloud cover will
quickly retreat to the east as this feature juts off the Carolina
Coast Sunday, leading to mostly clear skies and temperatures in the
50s for most areas, and upper 40s for the Eastern Shore. By Monday,
temperatures will moderate further with highs in the 50s to near 60
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Gradual warming trend through next week and mainly dry.
  Better chance for rain late in the week.

A relatively quiet and mild week of weather is on tap for the
forecast area through next week. The upper level pattern will
feature a strong, anomalous upper trough centered from northern
Quebec to Greenland, with an upper level ridge across the SW CONUS
into the early portion of next week. The surface high will be
suppressed southwards to the Gulf Coast region as a clipper system
moves ESE across Canada on Monday and Tuesday. As the clipper system
treks eastward on Tuesday, there may be just enough moisture by
Tuesday afternoon/evening mainly across the northern fringes of our
forecast area to produce a few showers. Have kept slight chance PoPs
for these areas, but MOS guidance has started to trend downwards on
the idea of showers Tuesday so this may change over the next few
forecast cycles if this trend continues. As for temperatures on
Tuesday, southerly flow will aid in propelling temperatures as high
as high as the mid to upper 60s. If there is any remaining snow
after this weekends moderating temperatures, it will surely be gone
after these above average temperatures. By Wednesday, winds will
have shifted to the northwest behind a weak frontal boundary
associated with the aforementioned clipper system. Drier air behind
this front will promote clear skies and with minimal CAA expected,
temperatures will be able climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The best shot at precip comes when a longwave trough digs into the
Deep South by mid to late week. This low will drag a stronger, less
moisture-starved front across the forecast on Thursday, so have
maintained chance PoPs for Thursday. The 12Z GFS has come down
significantly on PoPs for Thursday, but have not trended too far
from the previous forecast at this time. The exact timing of the
front will determine just how high temperatures can get on Thursday.
Thereafter, drier, cooler air will filter in and temperatures will
drop back to near normal on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Northwesterly
winds will gradually decrease through the remainder of the day,
becoming light this evening. RIC will likely see a period of
light and variable winds overnight into tomorrow morning. Skies
will remain clear and no precipitation is expected.

Outlook: High pressure moves into the area with VFR/dry conditions
expected through the weekend and into early to mid-next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Elevated N-NW winds continue through today. Gale Warnings are
  in effect for all ocean and Chesapeake Bay marine zones
  through this morning.

- Light freezing spray is also expected through this morning.

- Much quieter marine conditions this weekend and early next
  week.

1042mb arctic high pressure is centered over the central CONUS
early this morning. Meanwhile, ~990mb low pressure is centered
SW of Nova Scotia. Strong CAA is occurring between the low well
offshore and the strong high to the W. The wind is NW 25-30kt
with gusts to 35- 40kt for the Ches. Bay and ocean, and
generally NW 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt elsewhere. Seas range
from 4-6ft S to 5-7ft N with 3-5ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Gale
Warnings remain in effect for the ocean and Ches. Bay, with
SCAs elsewhere.

Strong high pressure continues to build E today into tonight as
the low pushes farther offshore. The pressure gradient will
gradually slacken with the wind steadily diminishing by later
this morning into the aftn to NW 15-25kt with gusts to 25-30kt
for the Ches. Bay and ocean, and 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt
elsewhere. SCAs for the rivers and Currituck Sound end at
18z/1PM. Gale Warnings are scheduled to end at 15z/10AM for the
Ches. Bay and ocean and will need to be replaced with SCAs. A
secondary surge is possible for the Ches. Bay this evening, with
SCA conditions lasting to about 06- 09z/1-4AM. Seas will begin
the day 4-6ft S to 5-7ft N, and then subside to 4-5ft later this
aftn into tonight with SCA conditions (mainly for seas) through
06-09z/1-4AM.

Benign marine conditions are expected this weekend into the
middle of next week. High pressure builds over the coast
Saturday, before sliding offshore Saturday night into Sunday.
This will result in a 10-15kt NNW wind becoming SW 5-10kt
Saturday night into Sunday (10- 15kt northern ocean zones
Saturday night). High pressure lingers offshore early next week
with a SSW wind generally 8-12kt. A weak cold front potentially
crosses the coast by Wednesday. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft this
weekend into the middle of next week, with 1 foot to
occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 255 PM EST Thursday...

A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Nottoway River
near Sebrell. This point is seeing minor flooding, with water
levels expected to continue to drop over the next few days. See
water.noaa.gov/wfo/akq for the latest site-specific information.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...SW/NB
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...