705
FXUS61 KAKQ 230528
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1228 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control on Sunday leading to dry
conditions and moderating temperatures. The high pushes offshore
Monday, ahead of an approaching mainly dry cold front which is
expected to cross the area Tuesday night. Mild temperatures are
expected for early next week. The next chance for rainfall is
not until late next week when another cold front crosses the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Clouds move out late tonight. Not as cold with lows in the
  20s, low 30s near the coast.


This evening, ~1028 mb high pressure is moving offshore ahead of
a shortwave trough that crosses the area tonight. Skies are
mostly cloudy. Cannot completely rule out a stray sprinkle of
flurry with the shortwave, mainly across the S and SE during the
first part of the night, but PoPs are less than 10%. Skies
clear quickly by or shortly after midnight, with clear skies
expected for the remainder of the night. Overnight lows will not
be as cold the past couple of nights, with lows generally
expected to be in the mid to upper 20s (isolated lower 20s
possible over the remaining snowpack/typically colder spots).

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Milder Sunday and especially Monday with dry/sunny conditions.

- Spring-like temperatures expected on Tuesday.

High pressure builds back over the region, before gradually pushing
off the southeast US coast Sunday night into early next week,
leading to dry conditions and warming temperatures. Plentiful
sunshine are expected for both Sunday and Monday outside of passing
high clouds. Highs on Sunday will generally be in the low 50s inland
and mid to upper 40s closer to the coast. Low Sunday night will
range from the mid-upper 20s to lower 30s. Warming further on Monday
as the high shifts offshore, allowing for warm advection/southerly
winds, with highs expected to range from the upper 50s to around 60
inland and low to mid 50s along the coast. Overnight lows remain
near or above freezing Monday night. Sunny skies continue into
Tuesday with even warmer temperatures expected. Southerly flow
continues ahead of weak cold front which will be pushing through the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Continued the trend of going
above the NBM in regards to high temperatures, with thickness tools
giving temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70. Right now, have
temperatures in the upper 60s for most inland locations and low to
mid 60s immediately along the Chesapeake Bay/Eastern Shore. Further
upward adjustments may be required with future updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Spring-like weather continues into Wednesday.

- A cold front crosses the area on Thursday, bringing our next
chance for rain.

A weak cold front crosses the area Tuesday night into early
Wednesday, but little to no cold advection is expected in the wake
of the front. Mid to upper 60s are forecast Wednesday for inland
areas, but an afternoon onshore wind will limit highs closer to the
coast to the 50s. Overnight lows Tuesday and Wednesday night are in
the mid-upper 30s and low-mid 40s, respectively. By the later
portion of the week, a longwave trough will advance eastward through
the central CONUS, digging into the Deep South Thursday. An
associated cold front is expected to then cross the region Thursday,
with low pressure potentially developing near the area as well. This
system likely brings the best chance of precip for the 7-day
forecast period. The 12z guidance still remains in decent agreement
with a line of showers crossing the area Thursday afternoon. Either
way, only light QPF is expected given the progressive nature and
northern stream origin of this system. There is also little to no
chance for thunder given very limited instability. The front has
trended a touch slower, which should allow for temperatures to again
warm into the 60s for much of the area ahead of the front (50s NW
and Eastern Shore). Drying out on Friday as high pressure returns,
temperatures will likely be running close to average for the last
day of February.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. Light and
variable winds are expected through the period as the flow field
becomes very weak. Slightly stronger NW winds (5-10 kt) are
forecast at SBY on Sunday. Other than lingering mid-level clouds
near ECG and SBY this morning, SKC is expected through the
period.

Outlook: High pressure remains near the area with VFR/dry
conditions expected through the weekend and into early to mid-
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions prevail this weekend through the middle
of next week.

Benign marine conditions are expected for the next few days as high
pressure generally remains in control through the week. Latest sfc
analysis shows high pressure (1028mb) right along the coast, leading
to light and variable winds. As such, seas are only 2-3ft and waves
are 1ft or less. The center of the high slides offshore this
evening. The pressure gradient on the backside of the high will be
tight enough to kick up a 10-15kt S/SW wind overnight with the
highest winds across northern waters. Seas stay at 2-3ft overnight
with waves becoming 1-2ft as the wind picks up. Another area of high
pressure slides in overhead tomorrow, leading to another period of
light and variable winds with perhaps a seabreeze forming in the
afternoon. Light winds persist into Monday morning. Seas drop down
to 1-2ft in response.

The early week period looks relatively quiet, as well. SE winds
increase to 10-15kt Mon afternoon, becoming SW Mon night. SW winds
at 10-15kt then persist through the day Tues. A weak/dry front
crosses the water Tues evening, turning winds to the NW Tues night.
Seas stay at 1-2ft Mon-Tues morning, then become 2-3ft Tues
afternoon. Waves will be 1ft or less Mon, then 1-2ft Mon night-Tues
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 235 PM EST Saturday...

A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Nottoway River
near Sebrell. This point is seeing minor flooding, with water
levels expected to fall below flood stage tonight or early
Sunday morning. See water.noaa.gov/wfo/akq for the latest site-
specific information.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AC
HYDROLOGY...