795
FXUS61 KAKQ 070137
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
937 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure along the coast gradually moves further
offshore tonight. A cold front approaches tonight and moves
into the region Saturday, before lingering over the area Sunday.
This will bring a return to chances of primarily afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather returns on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 937 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday
  afternoon/evening. The highest coverage of storms, and the
  greatest SVR potential will be across the southern 1/2 of the
  area.

The low that helped showers over-perform and produce up to 3+" of
rain on the Eastern Shore this afternoon is moving off the Mid-
Atlantic coast this evening. Meanwhile on the western half of the
local area, there was another round of over-performing storms this
afternoon and evening. Though a severe gust was not measured, there
have been numerous reports of trees and powerlines down in the wake
of these storms. MRMS QPE also shows a large rainfall footprint,
with rainfall amounts of generally 1-2". These storms are associated
with a shortwave and surface boundary across the Ohio River Valley.
They developed to the northwest to west and moved into the local
area and gradually moved SE. These storms fed off of the decent
instability, while the steeper low-level lapse rates and roughly 30
kts of effective shear helped maintain these storms in both their
longevity and strength. The last of the convection is in Bertie
County and is moving out of our area, but has weakened considerably.
There are a few isolated thunderstorms upstream from our piedmont
counties once again, but the environment is not quite as favorable
for strong to severe storms since the first round of storms used a
lot of the instability and daytime heating has ceased. A few of
these showers may potentially move in from the NW towards sunrise
Saturday morning, and have this handled with 15-25% PoPs. Overnight,
conditions will remain humid with both dew points and temperatures
will both remain in the upper 60s.

From previous discussion:

The next shortwave slides across the region Saturday morning, which
could produce some showers, mainly for VA and MD zones. However, a
cold front will approach from the NNW later in the day and cross
part of the area Saturday night. Temperatures rise well into the 80s
to near 90F across the southern 1/2 of the FA, with upper 60s-70F
dew points expected. This will allow for ample instability (1000-
1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along and south of I-64 despite meager mid- level
lapse rates (5.5 to 6C/km), while the shortwave aloft/height falls
will provide the necessary lift for convection to develop by 2-3 PM
initially across central/eastern VA. Scattered to numerous tstms
then move to the SE during the late aftn/evening before exiting the
area late in the evening/overnight. Unsure how much in the way of
storms form across northern areas (from LKU-SBY) where sfc heating
won`t be as strong. But, have moderate confidence in at least
scattered tstms along and south of I-64. One factor that could
suppress convection on Saturday is if morning clouds/showers linger
long enough to impact convective initiation during the aftn/evening.
Though will note that most of the CAMs shows at least scattered
convection during the later aftn/evening. With the instability in
place combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong to severe
tstms are possible. The highest threat is south of I-64 where SPC
has a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe wx, while the Marginal Risk
has been maintained farther N. Still looks like primarily a damaging
wind threat with storm mode likely becoming linear...although the
initial cells may be able to produce small hail (not as confident in
large hail given high freezing levels and only 5.5 to 6C/km mid-
level lapse rates). One other factor, is that low level winds will
be rather weak, and would tend to allow for seabreeze influences at
the coast, bringing the potential for localized earlier storm
initiation at the coast (confidence in this scenario remains low
however).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again Sunday
  as a frontal boundary lingers across the region.

- A few of the storms may be strong to severe, with damaging
  wind gusts being the main threat. The best chance of stronger
  storms is across SE VA and NE NC.

Showers/storms decrease in coverage Sat evening, but as the
next, stronger shortwave aloft (and more significant height
falls) approaches from the W into Sunday morning, will show
some additional shower chances moving back in from the W after
06Z. Lows Saturday night will mainly be in the mid 60s to around
70F.

For Sunday, with an increasing SW flow aloft, the sfc front
moves back north and likely stalls somewhere over the CWA as
secondary low pressure develops and tracks from W-E along it.
Another robust shortwave aloft is progged to quickly cross the
region during the aftn- evening. A few showers are possible
Sunday morning, with scattered-numerous tstms expected once
again during the aftn/evening. Similar to Saturday, the main
focus for severe wx will be along and south of that front (which
likely means southern VA/NE NC). Instability will again be
somewhat limited north of I-64 (and quite limited for the
eastern shore due to onshore low level flow), where forecast
highs are in the upper 70s-80F. The most likely timing for
severe wx is from 2-10 PM Sunday. The mid level flow on Sunday
will likely be a bit stronger than what it will be on Sat
(especially S), with similar amounts of instability expected.
SPC maintains a Slight Risk across SE VA/NE NC, with a Marginal
Risk farther north. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat, but large hail can`t completely be ruled out, given
somewhat more favorable mid level lapse rates (potentially 6 to
6.5 C/Km). There will also be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining elevated and
with the front nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Precip
quickly exits after 10-11 PM Sun night once again with lows
falling into the mid-upper 60s.

By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front washing
out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the exception of
20-30% near the Albemarle Sound.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled conditions return Tuesday, with mostly dry weather
  expected by Wednesday.

Scattered-numerous aftn/evening tstms are once again expected
on Tuesday as moisture increases ahead of another (fairly
strong) shortwave trough pushing through the lower Great Lakes.
There will likely at least some sort of organized severe threat
given that the mid- level flow will be 30-45 kt with a decent
amount of instability to work with. By Wednesday, high pressure
and drier conditions potentially return to the region as the
trough axis moves offshore. Temperatures will be near normal
Tue, then trending above normal later in the week with highs
into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Friday...

Scattered storms across the piedmont have missed the terminals,
though light rain is impacting RIC (no VIS/CIG reduction
expected). While rain has moved away from SBY for the time
being, IFR CIGS still prevail and are only expected to drop
overnight. Another period of MVFR to IFR CIGs is possible
overnight, mainly closer to the coast, and especially on the
Eastern Shore. CIGS should start to improve by tomorrow morning
between 13-15z, except for at SBY. There is a chance for some
light rain in the morning, but confidence was highest only at
RIC and SBY, so have maintained a PROB30 at these terminals.
Though this rain should be light enough to not affect VIS, a few
heavier showers cannot be ruled out. A cold front will approach
from the NW Saturday bringing scattered showers/storms after
18Z, with the highest coverage expected over southern VA and NE
NC after ~20Z. Have included a PROB30 between 0720z/0724z at
ORF, PHF, and ECG to account for the possibility of these storms
at the end of the TAF period.

This front is expected to linger in vicinity of the region Sunday
with a high chance of showers/tstms continuing. The latest guidance
shows the front pushing S of the region Monday. Showers/storms
return Tuesday aftn/evening, then a bit drier again Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through the
weekend.

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms across the waters Saturday
and Sunday.

Current weather analysis shows low pressure off the SE VA/NE NC
coastline. This low pressure is relatively weak, which has allow
winds to be sub-SCA at 5-10 kt, more easterly in the northern
coastal waters and more northerly in the southern coastal waters.
Waves and seas are around 1 ft in the bay and 2-3 ft in the coastal
waters. As the low pressure moves further offshore, winds will shift
to be out of the south on Saturday remaining 5-10 kt. The next weak
system will approach the area Sunday afternoon, which will allow
winds to slightly increase to 10-15 kt out of the SE. With the
onshore flow, seas and waves will increase slightly to 3-4 ft and 1-
2 ft, respectively. Sub-SCA conditions is forecast to remain through
early next week. Although sub-SCA conditions remain through the
weekend, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible both
Saturday and Sunday afternoon, which may cause locally elevated
winds and seas.

Moderate rip currents remain in the forecast for all
beaches through this weekend as onshore flow will remain persistent
through today and Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/NB
SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...HET/KMC