756
FXUS61 KAKQ 100353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1153 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds northeast of the region through Wednesday
as a trough lingers offshore of the Carolinas, keeping breezy
conditions closer to the coast. Another area of high pressure
builds in later this week behind a dry cold front. Below average
temperatures are expected through Thursday, trending closer to
normal by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing clouds with light rain along the coast overnight
  into Wednesday morning as low pressure slides northeast along
  the coast. Some patchy drizzle will be possible inland
  overnight into Wednesday morning toward the Richmond Metro
  area.

Latest analysis reveals 1030+mb surface high pressure centered
over Atlantic Canada and northern New England this evening, with
that surface ridge extending SSW into the local area. Offshore,
a quasi-stationary front remains draped offshore of the mid-
Atlantic and southeast coast this evening, with a broad area of
low pressure spinning offshore of the coastal Carolinas.

The cool air wedge airmass will remain in place overnight and
through Wednesday on persistent NNE winds. The moist low-level
flow will allow stratus/stratocu to push inland overnight, with
shallow/light overrunning moisture also wrapping back inland
overnight. CAMs continue to bring some light to moderate rain
showers inland across the VA Northern Neck and Eastern Shore
overnight, and high chance to likely PoPs (50-70%) remain in
place along the coastal plain through the overnight hours. Back
inland toward I-95, we remain much too dry for any widespread
accumulating precipitation. However, with the persistent shallow
overrunning moisture pushing back inland atop the wedge airmass,
periods of some light rain or drizzle are possible after
midnight and into Wed morning. Still appears that any pcpn will
be light overall, with rainfall amounts to be on the order of a
half inch or less for most areas along the immediate coast, with
little or no QPF along and west of the I-95 corridor. Temperatures
should remain miler overnight thanks to the cloud cover and cool
maritime flow with overnight lows generally in the upper 50s
west to upper 60s/around 70 southeast with the clouds in place.

Conditions should begin to slowly improve through the day on
Wednesday as the weak low along the front continues to move NE away
from the coast. The NE flow continues for most of the day with
a turn more northerly to northwesterly late in the day. As is
typically the case in these setups, guidance is seemingly too
quick to clear low clouds out. We keep the clouds around much
of the day (longest along the coast) with a gradual clearing
from west to east during the mid to late afternoon and evening.
Highs mainly in the lower 70s, except mid to upper 70s SE
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and trending warmer for Thursday through Friday.

High pressure is expected to dominate the weather from New England
to the Gulf Coast through this time period.  This will continue the
dry weather and with the return of more sunshine, expect
temperatures to climb back to more seasonable levels with readings
in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday to the low to mid 80s on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry, partly-mostly sunny, with seasonable temperatures this
weekend.

The weekend should be rather pleasant with temperatures near normal.
The sfc high pressure to the north strengthens, remaining in control
through the weekend. This will result in dry weather and seasonable
temperatures in the upper 70s to the mid 80s through Monday.  Models
beginning to advertise a backdoor cold front moving into the area
early next week.  Right now the timing looks like Monday afternoon
or evening with cooler and drier conditions for Tuesday.  But with
limited moisture, not anticipating much chance for rain with the
backdoor front.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure is centered over New England, with a stationary
front/coastal trough offshore that continues to bring strong NE
winds to coastal terminals with gusts to ~25 kt this evening at
ORF/ECG, and 20-25 kt at SBY/PHF. Clouds continue to spread
inland areas as far W as FVX with lower to MVFR levels along the
coast. As a area of low pressure develops along the coastal
front and slides northward tonight, expect the ceilings to drop
to IFR levels with some light rain possible for ECG/ORF/PHF/SBY
with some patchy drizzle possible at RIC. IFR to MVFR CIGs
expected at all terminals from late tonight through early
Wednesday afternoon, before a brief improvement to VFR/MVFR.

The area of low pressure will slowly pull NE away from the area
on Wednesday with a gradual weakening of the NE flow. But it
will take some time for the clouds to abate and ceiling to lift.
Do think by the afternoon hours some improvement is likely at
RIC, but will likely still be at low end MVFR remaining along
the coast.

Outlook: Deteriorating conditions once again Wednesday evening,
with gradual improvement into Thursday morning. Otherwise,
improving conditions continue on Thursday with dry conditions
and VFR for all terminals from Wed night through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Brief Gales force gusts possible over the Atlantic waters
  late this afternoon into this evening.

- Long duration Small craft advisory event continues into Wed
  night and Thursday

N to NE winds of 20 to 30 kt this afternoon into this evening in
between sprawling high pressure to the north and a coastal
trough/low just off the North Carolina coast. The pressure gradient
is forecast to tighten slightly over the area this afternoon into
this evening as the coastal trough moves west slightly. This may
allow for a few gusts to 35 kt especially in the Atlantic
Waters into this evening. However, will not issue a gale warning
as any gusts of 34 kt will be brief (less than a few hours).

Winds will turn more to the north on Wednesday as the coastal
trough/low shifts offshore. In addition, the winds will decrease
somewhat but remain at 15 to 25 kt. Winds will gradually decrease to
10 to 20 kt by Thu as the high shifts slightly S and the low
continues to move east. By Friday, there are hints from guidance
that a backdoor cold front/trough will move through the area which
will cause winds to increase again to 15 to 25 kt with another SCA
possible especially for the lower Ches Bay and S coastal waters.

Seas remain elevated today into Wednesday with 6 to 9 feet over the
ocean and 3 to 6 feet in the bay. No High Surf advisory at nearshore
buoys suggest wave height just under the 8 ft criteria. Seas/waves
subside Wed afternoon into Thursday, but then likely build again by
Friday.

Rip Currents: A High Risk of rip currents is expected at all beaches
through Wednesday, potentially easing some by Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1150 PM EDT Tuesday...

A prolonged period of onshore flow and elevated seas will lead
to continued elevated water levels over the next several high tide
cycles. Widespread nuisance to minor flooding is expected across
coastal locations from NE NC to Ocean City, MD, locations along
the Ches Bay, and areas along the tidal Rappahannock, York, and
James Rivers with the next couple of high tide cycles today. As
such, have expanded Coastal Flood Advisories to include all of
the western portion of the Ches Bay, all of the VA Eastern
Shore, and Worcester County for today`s high tide cycles.

Water levels remain elevated with prolonged onshore flow
through the end of the week, though departures likely drop off a
bit by Thursday. Will note that additional nuisance to minor
coastal flooding is possible through Thursday for portions of
the area, however, confidence is lower than for today into
Wednesday. Additionally, given the NE/N winds, portions of the
Currituck Sound have seen water levels drop to near low water
advisory thresholds. However, given that winds are expected to
diminish today, will hold off on any low water advisories at
this time as water levels are expected to slowly rise.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for
     MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ095-097-
     098-525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075>078-
     085-086-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ082>084-
     089-090-093-096-518-520-523-524.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-633-
     638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ESS/LKB
NEAR TERM...ESS/MAM
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ESS/LKB
AVIATION...ESS/MAM
MARINE...MRD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...