031
FXUS61 KAKQ 121533
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1033 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather is expected to continue through most of this
week with multiple low pressure systems impacting the region.
Accumulating snow is likely across northern portions of the area
through this evening, with ice accumulations in the Piedmont
tonight into early Wednesday. Rain continues into Wednesday,
with a cold front expected by Thursday. Drier Friday with high
pressure building into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories continue this morning for
  the northern and western half of the forecast area mainly for
  additional ice accumulations.

- Cool and wet weather continues today.

Precipitation continues across the forecast area this morning.
The cold low-level airmass remains quite stubborn across the
Piedmont and temps have struggled to exceed 32 F. Therefore,
patchy freezing rain continues in these areas. Impacts have been
quite noticeable and widespread power outages and downed trees have
been reported (especially in Amelia, Powhatan, Prince Edward,
and Chesterfield counties). The Winter Storm Warnings and
Advisories are tentatively in effect through 1 PM for the
remaining counties. The current wave of precip is expected to
move out of these areas and shift more toward the southern and
southeast half of the area into the early afternoon. Thus,
expect any freezing rain/drizzle to taper off. However, another
wave of precip is still expected later this afternoon and
evening as another upper disturbance slides through. Depending
on the temps, additional freezing rain concerns could develop.
We will reevaluate current headlines with the afternoon update.

Previous discussion as of 648 AM EST Wednesday...

KAKQ is detecting a large swath of precipitation moving across
a majority of the forecast area. Mixed precipitation, mainly
freezing rain, is still prevalent in the northern and western
counties, while the remainder of the area is seeing rain. In
areas seeing mixed precip, temperatures are just on the edge of
freezing and range between 30-32 degrees. We have received
reports of ice on trees and powerlines, and power outages due
to the ice accumulations are increasing in the piedmont region
and extending as far as King and Queen County. High pressure to
our north still has a weak grip on the region, with cold-air
damming still in place across the piedmont leading to the
aforementioned mixed precipitation in that area.

Another cold, rainy day is on tap for the local area. Flow aloft
will remain southwesterly, allowing increased moisture to stream
across the region. This higher atmospheric moisture content will
work in tandem with another area of low pressure approaching the
region today, leading to a continuation of light to to occasionally
moderate/heavy rainfall. Some mixed precipitation will likely
continue through mid-morning in the piedmont region through the
Richmond Metro and adjacent counties as temperatures sit just
under freezing. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the
northern counties, while Winter Weather Advisories are still in
effect for the SW portions of the forecast area. While the CAD
will remain in place across the piedmont, temperatures will
increase to just above freezing later this morning so all of the
precipitation will fully transition to rain across the local
area. QPF totals spanning from early this morning through
Thursday morning will range between 1-2" across most of the
area, with 0.5-1.5" in SE VA and NE NC. A low pressure system and
associated cold front will start to erode the CAD overnight as
it skirts to the northeastward through the Ohio River Valley
into the Great Lakes region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 402 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front crosses Thursday, bringing additional rainfall.

- Drier Friday with highs in the mid 40s.

One last punch of rain is expected Thursday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front associated with the low moving through the
Great Lakes region. There is some disagreement on just how quickly
(or slowly) this front will move through. The NE NC and SE NC
counties will likely get clipped by the warm sector ahead of the
approaching cold front, and temperatures could briefly climb as high
70 degrees with dew points in the lower 60s in these areas. This is
where the highest confidence in the forecast lies. Elsewhere, the
temperature forecast could bust because it is too cold or because it
is too warm due to the timing issues with the front. The details
will be further ironed out in the upcoming forecast cycles as
confidence increases in one direction or the other. Cloud cover and
precipitation will taper off from west to east in the wake of the
frontal passage. High pressure across the central U.S. will slide
eastward and build across our area on Thursday night and we will
briefly see a return to zonal flow aloft. Temperatures Thursday and
Friday night will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s and only
climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s during the day Friday.
Possibly the only dry day of the work week will come on Friday as
high pressure remains dominant across the region. The progressive
pattern will impede on the longevity of the high lingering in the
Mid-Atlantic region. Another system is progged to move across the
U.S. Friday through Saturday, which will shove the high
northeastward and out into the western North Atlantic and
effectively end short break from rain as it advances closer to the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Another system brings widespread rain  back to the region Saturday
afternoon through at least midday Sunday.

- Drying out and turning colder Sunday night into early next
  week as high pressure builds in from the west.

There is good model consensus that strong high pressure exits
off the coast Saturday, allowing overrunning moisture ahead of
the next system to bring more rain into the area by later
morning/midday Saturday, with a very strong signal for
widespread rain Saturday night into Sunday. Highs Saturday will
be coolest in the NW (lower 40s and potentially even colder)
where rain arrives earliest, and warmest across the SE (into the
upper 50s to lower 60s). There remains good model agreement
between the deterministic models in drawing gulf moisture into
the region Saturday night and Sunday. The 00Z/12 LREF grand
ensemble still depicts 1" or more of QPF for the northern 1/2 of
the CWA, with lesser amounts to the south (where precip will be
more showery in the warm sector). WPC maintains a Marginal ERO
day 4 for approximately the NW 1/2 of the CWA (12Z Sat-12Z Sun).
Categorical PoPs for an extended forecast have been maintained
Saturday night and Sunday morning for much of the area, with
high PoPs continuing into Sunday aftn as the cold front
approaches from the W, and pushes offshore Sun night. There is
even some potential for tstms Sunday aftn with dew P`s into the
upper 50s to lower 60s, though this scenario remains uncertain
at this time. Highs Sunday are forecast in the upper 60s to low
70s in the SE, with upper 50s/around 60F NW. Drying out Sunday
night, but looking to turn much colder for early next week, as
colder air pushes in behind the departing system. Highs Monday
are only expected in the upper 30s/lower 40s N to the mid 40s S.
The pattern looks to remain rather cold next week as a deep
upper low becomes cutoff over eastern Canada, with strong sfc
high pressure sliding SE from the Canadian Rockies into the
midwest. Remaining dry through the end of the extended period
(Tuesday), but the operational GFS/ECMWF and some ensemble
members suggest the potential for additional wintry weather in
the mid to latter portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 648 AM EST Wednesday...

Aside from RIC, all terminals have seen any remaining wintry mix
transition to rain. The transition is expected to occur at RIC later
this morning as temperatures rise. Rain will be steady through at
least Thursday morning, so impacts to flight categories are
expected. While VIS has trended upwards for the most part (currently
VFR/MVFR), CIGS have remained in the IFR/LIFR categories. This will
not change through the TAF period, however, VIS will rise and fall
based on the intensity of the rainfall through tomorrow night. Light
northeasterly surface winds will prevail through tomorrow night.
There is an increasing chance for LLWS at FL020 from the SW between
40-50 kt starting at ORF/ECG starting late tonight/early tomorrow
morning, so have included mentioned of that in the TAfs. By tomorrow
morning, all terminals will likely see LLWS as a strong low-level
jet sets up across our area.

Outlook: Additional rounds of rain are expected into Thursday
morning ahead of an approaching cold front, with IFR/LIFR CIGS
continuing through this time. Rain will clear out by Thursday
afternoon, but the progressive pattern continues and more rain is
possible by Saturday as another system nears the region and could
cause impacts to flight categories.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A series of low pressure systems will impact the region
  through Thursday, followed by a strong cold front Thursday
  night.

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the mouth of the
  Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic coastal waters.

1014mb low is lifting NE offshore early this morning with 1030mb
high pressure over eastern Canada. Winds are generally N or NNE 10-
15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the Chesapeake/lower James/Currituck
Sound and 20-25 kt offshore. Waves are 2-3 ft in the bay (3-4
near the mouth) with seas 6-8 ft S and 5-7 ft N.

Marginal SCA conditions subside for the southern Chesapeake
Bay, lower James River, and Currituck Sound. Will allow
headlines to expire on time (09z/4am) in these areas as the
gradient begins to relax as low pressure lifts away to the NE.
3-4 ft waves are expected to persist at the mouth of the bay
through this evening. Onshore/NE winds will continue today,
subsiding to around 10 kt for the bay and 10-15 kt offshore. Low
pressure lifts NE from the central Gulf Coast into the Ohio
Valley tonight, which should allow winds to swing around to the
S and SW 10-15 kt by Thursday morning into the afternoon hours.
As the surface low lifts NE into Canada Thursday evening, a
strong cold front will cross the waters with increasing NW winds
behind the boundary. Small craft conditions are likely for all
area waters during this CAA surge Thursday night and early
Friday before high pressure briefly builds into the region.
Progressive pattern continues with another system forecast to
impact the region Sunday into early next week with enhanced SW
flow ahead of the system and strong NW flow behind the
associated cold frontal passage.

Seas will remain elevated despite the expected lull in wind speeds
today into Thursday. Have extended the SCA headlines offshore an
additional 12 hours into early Friday. Additional extensions
into early Friday afternoon are likely to fully capture the
enhanced winds/seas in the post-frontal CAA surge.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ048-
     060>062-066>069-509>516.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ080.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...NB
MARINE...RHR