609
FXUS61 KAKQ 230257
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
957 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low lingers over the area this afternoon before
moving offshore tonight into Saturday. Weak high pressure
builds over the area late in the weekend, bringing a gradual
warmup for the first half of next week. Unsettled weather
returns around Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 950 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages...

- Cold, light rain tapers off quickly tonight.

- Gusty westerly winds continue through the night and into Saturday.

Evening analysis shows two areas of sfc low pressure, an
occluded low over NYC (co-located under a sprawling upper low)
and a second low further offshore of Cape Cod. There is a tight
pressure gradient over the area, leading to a brisk westerly
wind gusting upwards of 30-35 mph at times. Lingering light rain
also continues over the northern half of the area and
especially on the MD Eastern Shore. Overall, the low-levels
remain sub- saturated over most of VA, so the precip should
remain light and slowly taper off. Temps are in the low-mid 40s
as of 950 PM, coolest on the MD Eastern Shore where the
"heaviest" precip has been (due to the wet-bulb cooling
effect). Despite the cool temps aloft, the time is quickly
running out for any snowflakes to mix in and this now looks very
unlikely.

Pronounced top-down drying will occur tonight as the low pull
offshore and PoPs quickly decrease from SW to NE. Dry
conditions are expected areawide by 2-4 AM. Lows tonight are
not expected to be as cold with temps in the upper 30s to around
40F for most. A few bay streamer clouds are also possible on
the Eastern Shore and in SE VA with the strong westerly flow.
Otherwise, skies gradually clear out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages...

- A ridge builds back in bringing seasonable temperatures and
  dry weather.

As the upper level trough and vertically stacked low leaves the
region Saturday into Sunday, breezy conditions will last
throughout Saturday with persistent northwest flow. Wind gusts
are forecasted to be between 20-30mph. Skies will have mainly
cleared besides some cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will have warmed up slightly with highs
being in the middle to upper 50s across the CWA. By Saturday
night into Sunday morning winds will begin to diminish as a
ridge and high pressure move into the region. With the winds
diminishing and skies clearing, decent radiational cooling
should occur allowing temperatures to drop into the lower to
middle 30s inland and upper 30s along the coast. Sunday
temperatures will warm back up Sunday with highs in the lower
60s and lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Monday will be the
warmest day of next week as southerly flow returns to the area
ushering in warmer air. Highs will be in the middle 60s and lows
in the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages...

- Mild temperatures continue Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday behind a
cold front.

- An unsettled pattern develops by late week with rain chances
increasing.

An upper ridge is forecast to push offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic coast Monday night as a trough dives into the Great Lakes
and deepens by Tuesday. A cold front associated with the upper
trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic region late Monday night into
early Tuesday. The operational 22/12z ECMWF along with the EPS have
more moisture than the deterministic GFS and GEFS. However, each
ensemble suite has limited to no probabilities of QPF >= 0.1".
Therefore, confidence in showers is rather low and the current PoP
forecast for late Monday night/early Tuesday morning reflects the
NBM with 20-30% PoPs N, 15-20% into southern VA, and 15% or less
over NE NC. Mild Monday night into Tuesday, with lows Monday night
in the upper 40s to lower 50s, followed by highs Tuesday in the mid
60s to near 70F with downsloping westerly flow.

The upper trough deepens and shifts E across the Northeast Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Surface high pressure along with a dry/cool
airmass builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Forecast
lows Tuesday night drop into the lower to mid 30s N to the upper
30s/lower 40s SE, followed by highs in the 50s Wednesday. Another
trough, initially over the Central Plains Wednesday moves E and
deepens over the Eastern CONUS Thanksgiving Day into Thursday night
with developing surface low pressure. Again, the EPS has more
moisture than the GEFS, but even the GEFS has 30-50% probs for >=
0.5" rain Thursday into Friday, with the EPS slightly higher and
with a broader more northward footprint of >= 0.5" rainfall probs.
Confidence in timing, track, and intensity remain low, but there
increasing confidence for rain later Thanksgiving Day into Thursday
night/early Friday. Highs Thanksgiving Day will likely reflect a CAD
set-up with upper 40s NW to lower 60s SE. Lows Wednesday night and
Thursday night are mainly in the upper 30s NW to mid/upper 40s SE.
There is a potential for a much cooler/colder airmass to arrive late
next week in the wake of the late week system.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions continue at most terminals this evening. The
exception is at SBY where low-end MVFR CIGs are occurring.
Light rain is also expected to continue to pivot across the area
this evening and the best chances of rain and/or drizzle is at
RIC and SBY with lower chances at ORF and PHF. Cannot completely
rule out a brief snowflake or two mixing in, but no impact is
expected from this. Localized VSBY reductions to 3-4 SM are
possible at SBY in the "heavier" drizzle/rain. Additionally, a
period of IFR CIGs are possible at SBY through 04-05z. Skies are
expected to gradually clear through the night as drier air
filters into the area. A few bay streamers (with MVFR CIGs) are
also possible after 06z along the coast through the morning
hours. Scattered to widely scattered CU redevelops Sat late
morning and afternoon. W-NW winds remain gusty through the
period, with wind speeds generally 12-18 kt and gusts 20-30 kt.

Outlook: Winds diminish Saturday night into Sunday. Mainly dry
conditions continue into mid week, though there is a low chance
of rain Monday night through Tuesday morning with a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all area waters
  through 4 PM this afternoon.

- Gale Warning are in effect for all area waters from 4 PM into
  Saturday morning.

- Benign marine conditions begin Sunday amd last through early next
  week.

Latest analysis shows a strong upper level trough across the East
Coast. Surface low pressure is centered over the NY/PA border
bringing cooler, drier air to the area and a ramp up of elevated W
winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. The surface low pressure will
shift to be centered off-shore this evening, which combined with
cool air being pushed down across the waters, will increase the wind
speeds to Gale conditions with sustained winds 25-35 kt with gusts
up to 45 kt over the ocean and winds 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt
in the Bay. These winds will reach Gale force this evening and last
through early Saturday morning. Once the pressure gradient relaxes,
the winds will slowly decrease to sub-SCA conditions. It is most
likely that SCA will be needed to replace the Gale Warning until
early morning hours Sunday. After that, high pressure will move into
the area bringing calmer NW winds and seas, so sub-SCA conditions
are expected until the next cold front potentially on Tuesday.

Waves and seas are currently 1-2 ft in the Bay and 2-4 ft in the
coastal waters. They are expected to increase as winds pick up,
resulting to waves 4-6 ft in the Bay and 5-7 ft, occasionally 8 ft,
in the coastal waters overnight while peak winds occur. Seas will
then diminish during the day Saturday through early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634-638.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...HET/SW
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...KMC