778
FXUS61 KAKQ 181910
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
310 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front lingers across the area tonight into Wednesday. The
front finally crosses the area later Wednesday with below average
temperatures expected later this week. Hurricane Erin will make its
closest approach by Wednesday and Thursday. Impacts will be felt
well outside the forecast cone including large waves, dangerous rip
currents, breezy conditions along the coast and over the coastal
waters, and potentially a few outer rain bands across eastern
portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Locally heavy rainfall is possible across Southeast Virginia
  and Northeast North Carolina this afternoon into this evening.

This afternoon, a nearly stationary cold front is located over
far southeastern portions of the area. Well north and west of
the front, widespread clouds with isolated showers/drizzle has
developed. Close to the front, moisture and instability are
beginning to pool, especially over eastern VA and down into NE
NC where PW values are now hovering right around 2.0". Showers
have started to develop over eastern portions of the area and
thunderstorms are expected further SE where there is better
instability. The 18/12z HREF continues with a decent signal for
heavy rainfall across southeastern portions of the area, and
especially closer to the Albemarle Sound in NC where it shows a
50% for >3" of rain in 3 hours through this evening. CAMs also
show pockets of ~2-3" (locally higher amounts) across the
southeast. Fortunately, flash flood guidance is fairly high
across the SE (2.5-3" in an hour), thus opted against a Flood
Watch. WPC does however highlight the southeast with a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall and instances of flooding will be
possible if any heavier showers or storms set up over a more
urban area. The heaviest rain comes to an end shortly after
sunset, but shower (and isolated storm) chances linger across
the area through much of the night, with the higher PoPs
focusing across the NE.

Temperature-wise, where we have seen the most widespread cloud
cover this afternoon over the NW Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore
temperatures are only in the low to mid 70s further S and SE,
temperatures are in the low-mid 80s (upper 80s far SE). Lows
tonight range from the mid 60s NW to the lower 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled on Tuesday as a cold front lingers over
eastern portions of the area.

- Hurricane Erin is likely to stay offshore of the local area as it
makes its closest approach Wednesday night into  Thursday. However,
impacts will happen well outside of the forecast cone, with large
waves, strong rip currents, coastal flooding, and breezy conditions
along the coast all possible.

The front remains stalled over the into Tuesday. Similar to today,
we will see scattered showers and storms redevelop in the vicinity
of the boundary, with the highest chances likely focused east of I-
95. The 18/12z HREF does show a bit of a heavy rain signal for
tomorrow, especially closer to the Chesapeake Bay, but not as high
as today. In general, showers and storms should have less coverage
and organization when compared to today. Much of the area will be
locked in clouds (especially NW) with highs ranging from the mid-
upper 70s N/NW to the low-mid 80s further SE. Lows Tuesday night
will generally range from mid 60s NW to the lower 70s SE.

The main focus for Wednesday and Thursday the turns to Hurricane
Erin and what eventual impacts the storm has on the forecast area.
There continues to be a slight, but notable tick west with the
center of Erin as it tracks north later Wednesday and Thursday with
the general 18/12z ensemble and model consensus. The hurricane is
however still expected to recurve offshore/away from the local area
due to the amplification of a trough to our north. However, the
general wind field associated with Erin will substantially broaden
Wednesday night into Thursday as it moves into the mid-latitudes and
interacts with high pressure and drier air over New England and
Atlantic Canada. Therefore, impacts from this storm will occur well
away from the center due to an expanding storm/wind-field as it
moves north. The primary threats continue to be the potential for
very large waves, dangerous rip currents, and coastal flooding (see
more details below). We are also watching an increasing potential
tropical storm force wind gusts along the immediate coast,
especially for Virginia Beach and south, beginning as soon as late
Wednesday with the highest chances on Thursday. In addition, it is
possible some outer rain bands may clip far eastern portions of the
area, potentially bringing localized areas of heavy rain or stronger
winds. Continue to monitor the latest from NHC in regards to
Hurricane Erin.

Otherwise, a stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday
into Thursday (helping to push Erin out to sea). Temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in the 80s, with the
highest rain chances along the coast/closest to the storm.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Drier and more comfortable weather returns for Friday.

- Another front approaches later in the weekend, potentially
bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

High pressure builds north of the area on Friday as Hurricane Erin
pushes well offshore. Dry conditions/mostly sunny skies with
temperatures near to slightly below normal with highs in the low to
mid 80s. Much drier air will also be over the area (dewpoints in the
60s) which will make it feel more comfortable. High pressure moves
off the northeast coast on Saturday into Sunday, leading to
increasing temperatures and moisture. During the same timeframe,
another cold front will be moving into the Ohio Valley, eventually
crossing the local area later Sunday into early next week. Shower
and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday afternoon and especially
Sunday afternoon as the front approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Monday...

A backdoor cold front is located over the area with MVFR CIGs
(locally IFR around SBY) northwest of the boundary. Closer to
the boundary scattered showers/tstms are starting to develop.
Brief vsby restrictions are likely if heavy rain directly
impacts a given terminal (best chances ECG, PHF, and ORF) High
pressure builds across New England tonight. The will result in
continued NE flow with MVFR cigs falling to IFR at RIC, SBY, and
potentially PHF.

Outlook: Sub-VFR CIGs linger into Tuesday afternoon due to
continued onshore flow. In addition, passing afternoon showers
or thunderstorms may also result in sub-VFR conditions Tuesday
and Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the N later in the
week as Hurricane Erin tracks N then NE well off the coast.
Occasional showers and locally breezy conditions are possible
along the coast Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters
  this afternoon/early Tuesday morning due to increasing
  northeasterly winds and building seas behind a back door cold
  front.

- High risk of rip currents at all beaches as seas build with
  stronger onshore flow behind the cold front. Dangerous rip
  currents are likely with Hurricane Erin through the majority
  of the week and possibly into the weekend.

- Rapidly building seas and increasing winds are Wednesday
  through Thursday as Hurricane Erin makes its closest approach.

The latest weather analysis shows a back door cold front moving
through the area with a weak low pressure with the front near the
mouth of the Ches. Bay. High pressure behind the front is located
north of the Great Lakes. As the front has slowly moved south
through the area, winds and seas have begun to increase, especially
in the northern most coastal zone. Winds are now ENE 20-25 kt with
gusts up to 30 kt and seas 4-6 ft between Fenwick Island and
Chincoteague. The seas have slightly over-performed so far, so have
moved up the start time of the SCA for this zone to already be in
effect. The front will become more stationary and lose its forcing
before making its way through all the coastal waters, which will
likely keep winds around 20 kt south of Chincoteague to Parramore
Island and 15-20 kt in the Ches. Bay tonight. Waves will continue to
increase through tonight to 4-7 ft for the coastal waters (2-4 for
the Ches. Bay). SCA will progressively begin as the front moves
further south tonight/early Tuesday morning. Confidence is lower
over the bay for winds reaching SCA criteria this evening, so have
held off for now, but a few gusts to 20 kt is possible. Winds will
decrease Tuesday to Wednesday morning as the front becomes
stationary with NE winds at 15-20 kt in the coastal waters and 10-15
kt in the bay.

Hurricane Erin is currently moving NW and is located about 140 miles
N of the Grand Turk Island this afternoon. The current forecast
continues on track with Erin turning far enough north passing
between the coast and Bermuda, remaining offshore the US coast. The
the gradient between the high to the NE and Hurricane Erin will
cause NE winds to remain elevated on Tuesday behind the front. The
wind field of Hurricane Erin is forecast to become quite expansive
over the next few days as the storm gains latitude. As Erin shifts
further north offshore, the increased pressure gradient will be the
strongest mid to late this week with SCA winds expected Wednesday
night through at least late Thursday. Winds will peak Thursday
afternoon with sustained NE winds near 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt
in the coastal waters and 20-25 kt in the Ches. Bay (slightly higher
near the mouth). The main threat from Erin will be the large waves.
Waves and seas will peak at 10-15 ft in the coastal waters and 4-6
ft in the Ches. Bay (slightly higher in the mouth) on Thursday
afternoon. There is high confidence High Surf Advisories will be
needed for all coastal waters in the future. Waves greater than 5 ft
will likely linger into the weekend in the coastal waters.

With seas increasing today over the next few days, the risk of rip
currents will be high for the next few days across all beaches as
large long period swell (12-16s) arrives ahead of Hurricane
Erin.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

As Hurricane Erin approaches the offshore, strong NE winds will help
funnel water into the Ches. Bay. Minor tidal flooding is possible
with the high tide as early as Monday night/Tuesday morning on the
mouth and west side of the bay, including the rivers. Coastal Flood
Advisories may be needed as the Sewells Point, Jamestown, West
Point, and Tappahannock gauges are forecast to reach close to minor
stage. Once Erin approaches closer offshore mid week, minor to
moderate flooding is likely for most gauges starting Monday
afternoon/evening`s high tide. The higher anomalies from Erin`s
swell will likely linger after Erin moves further offshore.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...KMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...