674
FXUS61 KAKQ 310916
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
416 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the area today, followed by a cold
front moving through tonight. Rain is expected with the warm front
this morning and with the cold front this evening into tonight.
Cooler weather is expected this weekend, followed by mild weather
next week. Dry conditions are expected for the first half of next
week with unsettled weather returning for the second half.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

- Moderate rain overspreads the area this morning north of the
  VA/NC border as a warm front lifts north. More widespread
  rain moves across the area this evening.

- Breezy this afternoon across SE VA/NE NC with gusts up to
  25-30 mph possible.

- Highs in the mid 50s north to low-mid 70s south this afternoon.

An area of high pressure was located off the Mid-Atlantic coast this
morning , allowing for light S winds across the FA. Temps as of 320
AM ranged from the low-mid 40s N to around 50F SE under cloudy
skies. An area of low pressure over the Middle MS Valley is
expected to move towards the OH Valley by this afternoon before
moving offshore tonight. The associated warm front has begun to
lift into the SE portions of the FA this morning and will
continue to lift N into this afternoon. Isentropic ascent has
allowed for light to moderate rain to develop ahead of the warm
front generally N of the VA/NC border this morning. This rain
will continue to spread E over the next several hours before
lifting N into early this afternoon. As such, expect a
widespread moderate rain this morning for most areas N of the
VA/NC border with the highest rainfall totals N of US- 460
(generally 0.3-0.6"). As the warm front lifts N, a break in the
rain is expected from late this morning through most (if not
all) of the afternoon. The exception is across far N portions of
the FA where rain may linger into the afternoon. As the low
passes N of the FA this evening, the associated cold front moves
through from W to E. As such, expect a second round of
widespread rain this evening into tonight across the entire FA
with rain tapering off from W to E overnight. Additionally,
cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder (mainly in SE VA/NE
NC), but confidence is too low to reflect in the forecast.
Rainfall totals from the entire system are expected to range
from 0.75-1" across the FA with locally higher totals possible.

Highs today are expected to range from the mid 50s NW to the low-mid
70s SE. Additionally, gusty SW winds are expected this afternoon
across SE VA/NE NC with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible. Temps start
off mild this evening ahead of the cold front before falling behind
it into the 40s (~50 F SE) by sunrise on Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler and dry this weekend.

- Breezy Saturday with gusts up to 25 mph possible.

A secondary cold front pushes S across the FA Sat morning with winds
becoming N 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph (highest along the
coast). This cold front will also allow for temps cooling during the
afternoon from N to S as CAA ramps up. As such, expect highs Sat to
occur in the morning (upper 40 N to upper 50s S). Will note that hi-
res guidance is much cooler than NBM and statistical guidance for
Sat (which makes sense given the nondiurnal temps), showing highs in
the mid-upper 40s across the N two-thirds of the FA. For now, have
blended the two, but would not be surprised if temps trend cooler.

Cool high pressure builds into interior New England Sat night before
moving offshore Sun afternoon. This will allow for a wedge of cool
air Sat night across the local area with lows in the mid 20s N to
around 30F S and low-mid 20s across the Eastern Shore by Sun
morning. Given the position of the high, CAD is expected to develop
by Sun with widespread cloud cover (particularly across the
Piedmont). As such, even though winds are expected to become S by
Sun afternoon, temps are expected to be cooler than NBM given the
cloud cover with highs in the mid-upper 40s NW to the low-mid 50s SE
expected. S winds and cloud cover will keep lows milder for Sun
night with temps in the upper 30s NW to low-mid 40s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Mild weather is expected through the week with several days in
  the 60s to lower 70s.

- Unsettled weather develops for the second half of the week
  with showers possible.

Aloft, a large ridge builds across the central CONUS Mon, gradually
moving over the East Coast by Wed before moving offshore by late
week. At the sfc, high pressure remains centered off the SE coast
through the week with a second area of high pressure moving across
the Great Lakes and New England Tue-Wed. As such, expect dry weather
to continue through midweek. Mon is expected to be the warmest of
the first half of the week with highs in the upper 60s to around 70F
for most (lower 60s across the Eastern Shore). A cold front pushes S
Mon night into Tue on the S side of the area of high pressure moving
N of the local area. As such, expect cooler, but still mild, temps
Tue and Wed with highs in the mid 50s NE to mid 60s S/SE. As the
second high moves offshore and the ridge builds overhead Thu, expect
warm weather to arrive with highs in the upper 60s N to mid 70s S
(most in the lower 70s). A baroclinic zone centered across the OH
Valley nudges towards the local area by late week with a series of
shortwaves potentially moving through. As such, unsettled weather is
possible for late week with showers possible (20-40% PoPs). However,
confidence is low at this time. Lows remain mild each night
apart from mid-upper 30s Tue night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 105 AM EST Friday...

Occasional light rain is possible early this morning with VFR
VIS/CIGs before 11z. A warm front lifts N into the area later
this morning into this afternoon. As it does so, expect moderate
rain to develop mainly N of the VA/NC border around 9-12z,
lifting N with time. CIGs lower to mainly MVFR with this rain
(including RIC/SBY), although a brief period of IFR CIGs are
possible N of I-64 between 13-16z. SBY may drop to IFR briefly
during this time (~15z), but will hold off on adding it to the
TAF right now given low confidence. MVFR VIS are possible
with the rain as well. The rain tapers off from S to N from mid
morning into the afternoon with a break in the rain expected
through much of the afternoon apart from SBY where light rain
will be possible throughout the day. As such, expect CIGs to
improve to VFR apart from MVFR at SBY by this afternoon. Another
round of showers develops along a cold front as it moves E
across the area late this afternoon (after 21z) into tonight.
MVFR VIS/CIGs are possible with these showers tonight for most
of the terminals with IFR VIS/CIGs possible at SBY.
Additionally, brief period of IFR CIGs are possible across far
SE VA/NE NC (potentially impacting PHF/ORF/ECG) between 5-7z
Sat. LLWS will also be possible from 11-17z today mainly NE of
RIC (including SBY). An additional round of LLWS is possible
this evening at ECG, potentially including ORF (although
confidence is low at ORF). Otherwise, expect S winds 5-10 kt
early this morning to become SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt
inland and ~15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across SE VA/NE NC
(including PHF/ORF/ECG) this afternoon. Winds diminish tonight
behind the cold front.

Outlook: Rain tapers off from W to E tonight with improving
conditions expected overnight. VFR conditions return by Sat
morning with dry conditions expected through mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters and
Currituck Sound starting later this morning into tonight.

- Marine dense fog is possible later this morning.

- Additional SCAs are in effect for the coastal waters and
Chesapeake Bay Saturday into Saturday night.

- Benign marine conditions return later Saturday night into the
middle of next week.

Early this morning, ~1029 mb high pressure is centered off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is located to our south,
roughly extending along the SC coast and back into Georgia. Winds
are light (5 to 10 knots) and generally out of the SE. Seas are
running around 2 feet, and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 1 to 2
feet. The warm front gradually lifts north later this morning into
this afternoon, with southerly winds expected to increase as the
front lifts north. A marginal Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
for the coastal waters and Currituck Sound starting later this
morning into tonight. SSW winds increase to 15 to 20 knots over
these areas, with gusts around 25 knots at times. In addition, seas
build to around 5 feet, especially out 20 nm, across the coastal
waters. Elsewhere, SSW winds will generally be running around 10 to
15 knots, though a brief period of ~20 knot gusts will be possible
over the James River and lower Chesapeake Bay this afternoon.
Overall, suspect that the very cold waters (water temps in the 30s
across the Chesapeake Bay and upper 30s to lower 40s across the
coastal waters) will limit mixing today, keeping wind gusts mostly
in check. Will also need to keep an eye on the marine dense fog
potential later this morning through this afternoon as warmer air
moves over the cold waters.

A weak cold front crosses the waters tonight, followed by a
secondary stronger front Saturday morning. Winds become NW and
increase Saturday morning in the wake of the front, with wind speeds
increasing to ~15 to 20 knots (with gusts around 25 knots). Seas
will also linger around 5 feet (especially out 20 nm) Saturday
morning into Saturday night. SCAs have been extended into Saturday
night to account for this second surge. In addition, SCAs have been
issued for the Chesapeake Bay Saturday morning into Saturday
evening. Winds gradually diminish Saturday afternoon-evening, with a
return to sub-SCA conditions expected for all waters later Saturday
night into the middle of next week. A cold front crosses the coast
Monday night with high pressure returning by Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
     evening for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB