554
FXUS61 KAKQ 250134
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
934 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight. The front
crosses the area Monday, bringing dry and very pleasant
conditions for the rest of next week with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 120 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Showers/storms are possible through late this evening in the
  Piedmont.

Showers (and isolated storms) have developed ahead of an
approaching cold front. Showers will continue to approach the
I-95 corridor over the next couple of hours while also
continuing to weaken. Outside of a leftover sprinkle, mainly
dry weather is expected for areas east of the I-95 corridor. Any
lingering showers come to an end by ~1 AM. The front nears the
area by late tonight with lows dropping into the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A few showers and storms remain possible across SE VA/NE NC on Monday.
  Otherwise, seasonable temperatures in the mid- upper 80s are
  expected.

- Dry, comfortable weather with noticeably lower humidity is expected
  on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The cold front swings through Monday, likely in the late morning or
afternoon. While it will be warm (widespread lower-mid 80s with
upper 80s SE), dew pts drop into the 50s during the aftn along and
west of I-95. Higher dew pts (~70F) linger across SE VA/NE NC
through the day. As a result, isolated showers/tstms are possible
here through the aftn/early evening before the post-frontal, drier
airmass arrives from the NW. Still feel that coverage will be quite
sparse so PoPs are only 20% to locally 30%. Stronger CAA arrives
later Monday evening/Monday night, allowing for comfortable lows in
the upper 50s W to low-mid 60s E.

A deep trough begins to dig over the eastern CONUS on Tuesday and
becomes more amplified by Wednesday. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure
builds over the Plains/Midwest on Tue and shifts east (but is still
progged to be centered to our west) by Wednesday. The low-level flow
will be light out of the N-NW through the period, leading to
pleasant wx with highs only around 80F and dew points in the 50s
each day. The current low temp forecast has upper 50s-lower 60s
Tuesday night, but wouldn`t be surprised if reality ends up a few
degrees cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Very nice late next week and potentially through Labor Day weekend
  with comfortable temperatures and humidity.

Very nice, fall like wx is expected to continue late next week as
deep troughing remains in place over the area. Meanwhile, the above
mentioned surface high builds over the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. A
couple of shortwaves rotating through should also provide
reinforcing shots of cooler and drier air. Dry wx is expected
through at least Friday as high pressure remains in control and any
appreciable deep layered moisture will be suppressed well to our
south. Highs through the week are likely to be several degrees below
normal and in the mid 70s to around 80F. Lows should generally be in
the mid 50s inland and low 60s in the east. The latest 12z
statistical model guidance continues to show some potential for
upper 40s across the Piedmont Wednesday night as the sfc high
settles overhead.

Current indications are similar wx continues into the first part of
the Labor Day weekend, though low end rain chances may return by
late in the weekend (although this is highly uncertain).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 PM EDT Sunday...

A cold front is approaching from the west this evening, with
a line of showers and thunderstorms just ahead of it. Showers
and storms are expected to weaken before they make it to RIC,
but clouds will briefly increase later this evening. Otherwise,
dry tonight with mainly high clouds. Some patchy fog may try to
develop ~08z at SBY just ahead of the front. The cold front
crosses the terminals later tonight into Monday. The dry wx
continues at RIC/SBY/PHF, but there is a 20-30% chc of
aftn/evening tstms at ORF/ECG. Mainly clear tonight with VRB
winds 5 kt or less. Winds then become N-NW at 5-10 kt by later
Monday behind the cold front.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR with dry wx is expected from Monday
night through the end of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 650 PM EDT Sunday...

- Elevated seas persist through this evening with SCAs extended
  for now til 10 PM (potentially may need to go overnight)
  evening with 5 to 6 ft seas.

- Cool high pressure settles in by midweek. Mainly sub- SCA
  conditions prevail (though an uptick in winds is likely with
  northerly surges Mon night and again Tue night/early Wed).


Low pressure is centered off the coast of NC/SE VA, with a cold
front well off to the west of the region. Winds remain out of
the east around 5 to 10 kt with some 15 kt gusts. Seas remain
elevated, with all wave guidance products verifying too low with
long period swell of 12-14 seconds. Small Craft Advisories have
been extended until 10PM/02Z this evening, and may need to be
adjusted overnight (will wait until late evening to make the
call), as seas are still mainly 5-6 ft offshore, and 4-5 ft
nearshore. Winds shift to the SE at 5-10kt later tonight as the
front approaches from the W and moves closer to the local area. By
tomorrow the cold front will have passed across the waters and
winds will switch to out of the NW but will generally only be
around 10 kt given weak cold air advection and a weak pressure
gradient. Tough call on the seas, but suspect they drop off a
bit with the wind shift to 3-4 ft. Waves in the Bay will avg. 1
to 2 ft. Looking ahead, better cold air advection is expected
Mon night/Tue morning and while wind probs for gusts ~20 kt
are only ~30-50% in the bay (with sustained 18 kt winds only
10-30%), think a brief period of marginal SCA winds remains
possible around and just before sunrise Tuesday morning, as
cooler, drier air builds south across the local waters. Then by
mid week optimal marine conditions are expected to persist as a
high pressure builds over the waters.

Rip Currents: With lingering long-period (10-14sec) swells and
nearshore breaking waves of 3-5 ft, dangerous swimming
conditions and high risk of rip currents is expected through
Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 700 PM EDT Sunday...

Nuisance to mainly low-end Minor tidal flooding is expected to
continue over the tidal Potomac and the bay side of the Lower
Eastern Shore of MD into high tide cycles late tonight/early
Monday. Decided to add zones along the Rappahannock to the
Potomac to cover the overnight high tide cycle (where it may
reach Minor at Tappahannock) rather than issue a separate
statement. Farther south, along the York have let the Advisory
expire and will not be issuing any additional statements.
Thereafter, all coastal flood conditions are expected to improve
as the excess water finally gets flushed out of the bay with
winds turning to the NW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for VAZ075>078-
     085-521-522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...AJB/ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/SW
LONG TERM...ERI/SW
AVIATION...AJB/ERI
MARINE...HET/LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...