697
FXUS61 KAKQ 031923
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
323 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures, lower humidity, and mainly dry
conditions persist early this week as strong high pressure
builds to our north. Moisture will slowly build back into the
region mid to late this week with afternoon temperatures
remaining below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and pleasant tonight with high pressure over the region.

An upper trough extends from the Great Lakes to the Northeast
this afternoon. At the surface, high pressure extends from the
Great Lakes to northern Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, low pressure is
developing well offshore of the Carolina coast. Partly to
mostly sunny with scattered fair weather cumulus and cirrus
spreading in from the SW. Temperatures range from the mid 70s to
around 80F. The wind is NE 5-10 mph well inland and 10-15 mph
with gusts to 20-25 mph closer to and along the coast. Drier
Canadian air associated with the surface high will result in
another very pleasant night with lows in the mid 50s to lower
60s. Warmer at the coast with lows in the mid to upper 60s where
a a light NE wind will persist. Patchy shallow ground fog is
possible inland toward morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Below normal temperatures continue from Canadian high
  pressure.

- Dry Tuesday, with moisture returning Wednesday.

Another area of strong high pressure (~1030mb) builds across
Quebec Monday and Tuesday, and settles over the lower Saint
Lawrence Valley and New England by Wednesday. High temperatures
Monday and Tuesday will be slightly warmer than today, but still
below average and in the lower to mid 80s. Dewpoints will
remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s Monday and in the lower to
mid 60s Tuesday maintaining rather pleasant conditions.
Comfortable Tuesday morning with lows in the upper 50s to mid
60s and locally warmer at the coast. Some moisture begins to
return Tuesday night with PW anomalies nudging above normal by
Wednesday as high pressure remains anchored to the NE and as
another inverted trough or surface low develops off the
Southeast coast. The initial low (presently offshore) may become
tropical as it moves ENE well away from the coast with no
impact to the local area, aside from an existing elevated rip
current risk. A chance of showers returns by Wednesday
afternoon, with the highest chance from the Piedmont across s-
central VA and into NE NC. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid
60s to around 70F with highs Wednesday 80-85F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly below average temperatures persist with increasing
  humidity.

- Increasing rain chances through late week into early next
  weekend as moisture returns.

Strong high pressure lingers across the New England coast and
Canadian Maritimes later this week into next weekend. Aloft, an
upper trough will settle across the Southeast as rising height
anomalies develop over QB. This type of pattern typically
results in some semblance of low pressure off the Southeast
coast, at least an inverted trough. There are some EPS 03/12z
EPS members that show tropical development, with less support
from the GEFS, aside from the 03/12z GFS. NHC has added a
hatched area for this system showing a 20% of development
through 7 days, and beyond 48 hours. Regardless of tropical
development, PW anomalies and rain chances increase later this
week into early next weekend. More humid conditions are expected
later this week into early next weekend, but high temperatures
should remain below average, with warmer overnight lows due to
more humid conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure extends from the Great Lakes to the northern Mid-
Atlantic as of 18z. Meanwhile, low pressure is developing well
offshore of the Carolina coast. The combination of high pressure
to the N and low pressure offshore is resulting in a NE wind of
8-12kt inland and 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt closer to the
coast. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are expected to
continue tonight into Monday, with FEW-SCT CU during the aftn
hours today and Monday and occasional bands of CI aloft. The
wind remains NE Monday, speeds will be less than today.

Predominantly VFR conditions prevail through the week. Low-end
chances for showers return Wed-Fri, with tstms possible during
the aftn/early evening hours Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect much of the region
  through tonight, lingering through Monday for seas on the
  coastal waters.

- High Risk for Rip Currents in effect all beaches today, with
  a High Surf Advisory in effect for the Atlantic coast of
  Currituck NC.

Marine conditions are starting to gradually improve this afternoon.
A loosening pressure gradient across the northern waters where high
pressure is building in has allowed for winds to lighten up to 10-
15kt. Across the southern coastal waters and lower bay, the pressure
gradient between the high to the north and low pressure offshore to
the SE has winds still a bit elevated: 15-20kt. Latest buoy obs
reflect seas that are 5-7ft N of Cape Charles and 6-8ft to the S.
SCAs are still in effect for the lower Ches Bay, the Lower James
River, the Currituck Sound, and all of the coastal waters. The lower
bay/James are in effect until late tonight, but given the current
downward trend in winds in those locations, they may be cancelled
early. Despite weakening winds, onshore flow will help keep 5ft+
seas present into tomorrow.

The general pattern keeps onshore flow in place through the week,
with strong/anomalous high pressure (>1030 mb) becoming centered
over eastern Canada Tuesday/Wednesday, and then shifting off the New
England coast late in the week. Sub-SCA conditions may be short-
lived, with an increase in onshore flow returning by midweek, along
with building seas once again.

A High Rip Current risk remains in effect for all beaches today,
with 6-8ft seas south, and 4-6 ft seas north (where more of a strong
longshore current prevails). High south and moderate north will
likely linger into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Tidal anomalies have dropped off slightly early this morning,
generally averaging 1.0 to 1.5 ft above normal for the upper
Bay, and 1.5 to 2 ft above normal for the lower Bay and tidal
James. Currents at the mouth of the Bay have started to become
closer to neutral, with a more significant ebb tide observed
last evening into early this morning. All Coastal Flood
Advisories and Statements have ended, with no flooding for the
upcoming high tide cycle later this morning (being the lower
astronomical tide). By late today and tonight, nuisance
flooding will be possible as the higher of the astronomical tide
cycle occurs. Not anticipating any additional Advisories, but
will monitor trends over the next few hrs for the possible
issuance of a statement, primarily for the western shore of the
Bay from Windmill Pt northward and along the tidal Rappahannock
and Potomac, and possibly across the upper James. After that,
additional nuisance flooding is not expected.

A High Surf Advisory remains in effect today for Outer Banks
Currituck for nearshore waves around 8ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for ANZ654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...AJZ/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ