370
FXUS61 KAKQ 190749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
349 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front lingers across the region today into Wednesday as
high pressure remains anchored northeast of the area. Erin will
make its closest approach Wednesday night and Thursday, before
quickly moving farther out to sea Thursday night into Friday.
Impacts will be felt well outside the forecast cone including
large waves and tidal flooding, dangerous rip currents, breezy
conditions along the coast and over the coastal waters, and
potentially a few outer rain bands across eastern portions of
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Locally heavy rainfall will again be possible across eastern
  portions of the area today.

GOES water vapor channels depict an upper ridge building over
the Ohio Valley and Northeast, with a weak trough axis lingering
in vicinity of the NC coast. At the surface, 1026mb high
pressure is centered over QB, and extends to the SW into the
Mid- Atlantic. An inverted trough/weak surface low is located
along the VA coast, with a cold front trailing to the SW into
central NC. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin is a category 3 storm and
is located about 770mi SSE of Cape Hatteras and moving NW around
7 mph.

Scattered showers are occurring early this morning on the
northern/northwestern periphery of the surface trough and are
associated with a 20-30kt easterly LLJ. Temperatures early this
morning range from the upper 60s NW to mid 70s SE under a mostly
cloudy to overcast sky. The surface trough gradually
retrogrades inland today as the easterly LLJ lingers and remains
around 20-25kt. Scattered showers continue today, generally in
vicinity of the Ches. Bay this morning and pushing inland toward
the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Any showers will be slow
moving and capable of producing high rain rates. Therefore, the
eastern half of the area is in a marginal ERO for today. Thunder
will be limited with clouds and easterly flow. High
temperatures today range from the mid 70s N to the lower/mid 80s
SE on the warm-side of the front.

By tonight, the LLJ weakens and dissipates. Therefore, any
lingering showers should diminish with PoPs generally 20% or
less overnight. High pressure will be centered over Atlantic
Canada and continue to ridge SW into the VA Piedmont. Given
this, stratus will likely continue or redevelop over the region,
especially inland. Low temperatures range from the upper 60s
NW, to the mid 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hurricane Erin is likely to stay offshore of the local area
  as it makes its closest approach Wednesday night into
  Thursday. However, impacts will happen well outside of the
  forecast cone, with large waves, strong rip currents, coastal
  flooding, and breezy conditions along the coast all possible.

Hurricane Erin is forecast to be tracking N well off the
Southeast coast by Wednesday. Meanwhile, some semblance of a
front will linger over the area. There is not much support for
any showers early in the day. However, by the afternoon the
19/00z GFS/NAM each depict an anticyclonic upper jet developing
N of Erin, which could provide enough lift for scattered showers
and an few tstms by Wednesday afternoon. Warmer Wednesday with
high temperatures in the lower/mid 80s over the Eastern Shore,
to the mid to locally upper 80s inland W and SW of the Ches.
Bay.

Hurricane Erin becomes the primary focus Wednesday night into
Thursday. A slight westward shift continues with the track in
the 19/00z cycle. There has not been a dramatic shift with any
given cycle, but a cumulative shift over several runs has
resulted in a notable shift. The latest forecast has Erin
reaching its farthest W location well off the GA/SC coast
Wednesday, before making a northeasterly turn Wednesday night
into Thursday. However, the combination of high pressure to the
N, a lingering front, and some early extratropical transition
will result in a substantially broadening wind field associated
with Erin. The primary threats continue to be very large waves,
dangerous rip currents, and coastal flooding (see more details
below). We are also watching an increasing potential tropical
storm force wind gusts along the immediate coast, especially for
Virginia Beach and south, beginning as soon as Wednesday night
with the highest chances Thursday. There is also shallow mixing
during the day Thursday, below 925mb. Therefore, some tropical
storm force wind gusts are possible along the Atlantic coast of
the Eastern Shore as well, with wind gusts up to 25 mph possible
will inland to the I-95 corridor. In addition, it is possible
some outer rain bands may clip far eastern portions of the area,
potentially bringing localized areas of heavy rain or stronger
winds. Continue to monitor the latest from NHC in regards to
Hurricane Erin.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier and more comfortable weather returns for Friday.

- Another front approaches later in the weekend, potentially
  bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms.

High pressure builds north of the area Thursday night into
Friday as Hurricane Erin pushes well offshore. Dry
conditions/mostly sunny skies with temperatures near to slightly
below normal with highs in the low to mid 80s. Much drier air
will also be over the area (dewpoints in the 60s) which will
make it feel more comfortable. High pressure moves off the
northeast coast on Saturday into Sunday, leading to increasing
temperatures and moisture. During the same timeframe, another
cold front will be moving into the Ohio Valley, eventually
crossing the local area later Sunday into early next week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday afternoon and
especially Sunday afternoon as the front approaches from the
west. A more substantial trough potentially digs in from the NW
early next week with temperatures trending below average.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure is centered over northern New England and
Atlantic Canada as of 06z and is ridging SW into the Mid-
Atlantic. This has resulted in widespread IFR stratus and
onshore flow, which is impacting RIC, SBY, and PHF. Meanwhile,
weak low pressure is centered in vicinity of the VA/NC border
near the coast. Given this, cigs have been variable at ORF and
ECG, generally MVFR/VFR, but occasionally IFR. High pressure
remains nearly stationary to our NE today into tonight. IFR cigs
continue this morning for RIC, SBY, and PHF. Cigs at these
sites potentially lift to MVFR later this morning into the aftn.
Generally MVFR, 2-3kft at ORF and ECG today. In addition to low
cigs, occasional vsby restrictions are possible in areas of
drizzle and isolated to scattered showers. The wind will mainly
be ENE 5-10kt and 10-15kt along the coast. IFR cigs are likely
to redevelop tonight for RIC, SBY, and PHF, with LIFR possible
at RIC later tonight.

A gradual improvement in flight conditions is expected Wednesday
morning with a chc of showers and a few tstms Wednesday aftn.
High pressure builds in from the N later in the week as
Hurricane Erin tracks N then NE well off the coast. Occasional
showers and locally breezy conditions are possible along the
coast Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the coastal waters S
  of Cape Charles as Hurricane Erin passes offshore, with these
  conditions most likely Thursday and Thursday night.

- Dangerous seas of 10-15 ft also develop by Thursday.

- Slowly improving conditions expected by Friday and especially
  the weekend.

A backdoor cold front is located near the NC/VA border this
morning with high pressure north of the area. NE winds are 15-25
kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt north of the front, particularly
in the upper Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters N of Parramore
Island. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for these areas.
Winds are expected to diminish some later this morning as the
pressure gradient slackens some. Therefore, the SCA for the
Chesapeake Bay is only in effect until 10z/6 AM this morning.
The SCA for the coastal waters continues through Wednesday due
to elevated seas. For the rest of today, expect a continuation
of the NE winds, with wind speeds around 15 kt in the Chesapeake
Bay (highest N) and 15-20 kt in the northern coastal waters.
There is some disagreement in the model guidance regarding the
positioning of the front later this afternoon, which impacts the
wind forecast as well. At this time, winds speeds in the bay
appear to be predominantly sub-SCA this afternoon and evening.
However, similar to later yesterday, SCAs could be raised if
there is an over-performance in the wind speeds. Winds then
decrease to ~10 kt (or less) late tonight into Wednesday
morning.

Meanwhile, Category 3 Hurricane Erin remains well SE of the
area in the eastern Bahamas vicinity this morning. This storm
will be the main focus of the marine forecast beyond Wednesday
morning. Erin is forecast to take on a more northerly motion
later today and make its closest approach to the NC Outer Banks
coastline Thursday morning. By this time, a northeasterly motion
is anticipated and Erin should begin accelerating well out into
the open Atlantic by Thursday night into Friday. Despite the
offshore track, the large (and expanding) wind field is likely
to pose a significant marine threat and dangerous conditions are
expected on the waters and particularly over our ocean zones.
The time line of greatest impacts is from later Wednesday
through most of Friday. Seas will rapidly build to 5- 8 ft by
Wednesday and then 10-15 ft by Thursday. Waves at the mouth of
the bay are also expected to peak at 6-8 ft, with 4-6 ft
elsewhere in the lower, middle, and upper bay. The other aspect
will be the increasing winds as the large wind field passes by.
The latest trends in the model guidance have slowed Erin`s
northward progression a tad and, therefore, the time line of
strongest winds. E-NE winds increase to 15-25 kt Wednesday night
and then 20-30 kt Thursday morning. The strongest winds (25-35+
kt) are currently expected from later Thursday into Thursday
night as the wind direction becomes N/NNE and wind gusts peak at
40-45 kt. Local wind probabilities also show some chances for
50 kt wind gusts in the coastal waters. Tropical Storm Watches
are currently in effect for the ocean S of Cape Charles and,
based on the current forecast, there is a high likelihood these
TS Watches will at least need to extended northward to cover the
remaining ocean zones. There is also some possibility for
tropical storm conditions in the lower bay.

Seas/waves and winds should (gradually) subside by Friday as
Erin pulls further away. However, long-period swell and seas of
5-7 ft linger through most of the weekend. Rather benign/sub-SCA
winds are expected Saturday and Sunday as the wind direction
shifts to the S.

Rip Currents: With long-period (12-17s) swell building over the
next several days, the risk of rip currents will be high for
the entire week. These rip currents and nearshore breaking waves
of 8+ feet will lead to dangerous swimming conditions and
swimmers should remain out of the water.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

As Hurricane Erin approaches offshore, strong NE winds will
help funnel water into the Chesapeake Bay. Minor tidal flooding
is possible with the high tide cycle this evening and early
tonight. Confidence in reaching minor flood is highest in the
western portions of the upper Chesapeake Bay, including along
the tidal Potomac and Rappahannock. However, will hold off on
issuing Coastal Flood Advisories at this time due to transient
nature of the threat with this initial cycle, but they may be
required eventually. Further S/elsewhere, only nuisance flooding
(or less) is expected this evening. Once Erin approaches closer
offshore mid week, widespread moderate flooding is anticipated
at most gauges. Some areas could also approach major flood. With
the closer track to the coast and higher wind speeds, the
"higher" solutions are looking more probable. A Coastal Flood
Watch will likely be needed as soon as later today or tonight.
The higher anomalies from Erin`s swell will likely linger after
Erin moves further offshore.

Additionally, significant beach erosion is possible due to the
extended duration of the large, breaking waves. A High Surf
Advisory has been issued for nearshore breaking waves of 8-12 ft
from Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     MDZ025.
NC...High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ656-658.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ
LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SW