183
FXUS61 KAKQ 111040
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
640 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low tracks north toward the area today into tonight,
passing nearby Sunday, and lingering offshore into Monday.
Heavy rain, windy conditions, and coastal flood impacts are
likely near the coast tonight and Sunday. The low moves away by
Tuesday as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Dry and
seasonable weather returns and prevails for the middle and end
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- A coastal storm impacts the region later today into Sunday,
  bringing moderate to locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
  moderate to major tidal flooding. Impacts will be greatest at
  the immediate coast, and from late tonight through midday
  Sunday.

A complex surface pattern resides over the eastern CONUS this
morning. High pressure is now centered to the east and well offshore
of New England. However, it continues to ridge SW into the Mid-
Atlantic and Carolinas, keeping us mostly dry for now. The main
wx story over the next few days is the developing sfc low
offshore of FL, with the latest analysis placing its central
pressure around 1006 mb. For the first part of today, the dry wx
should mostly continue, outside of a brief shower or two in NE
NC and srn VA. Skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast with high
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The coolest temps
are expected in the Piedmont where lower-level clouds should
reside for most of the day. As the low tracks northward this
afternoon, rain will gradually increase in coverage, first over
SE VA and NE NC in the mid-late afternoon and then elsewhere
this evening and tonight. QPF through 8 PM this evening will be
on the lighter side, generally 0.25" or less.

The brunt of the impacts from the coastal low are still anticipated
tonight through Sunday. The initial sfc low offshore of the Carolinas
should lift northward toward at least the srn NC coast tonight.
Beyond that time, there is STILL a good deal of spread in the model
guidance and ensembles surrounding the evolution of the low(s).
There are generally two camps in the guidance: 1) the initial sfc
low to our S remains the primary feature and moves northward
along the coast and potentially inland into NC and 2) a new low
becomes the primary low off of the the northern Mid-Atlantic
and New England coasts, with a sprawling, bifurcated feature
taking over by later Sunday and Monday. The first scenario would
generally portend to more significant impacts across coastal
portions of the local area (especially in the wind and coastal
flooding department), while the second scenario would be more
impactful for those located NE of our forecast area. Overall,
though, the EPS and GEFS are in better agreement with the 00z/11
model cycle. This brings moderate to locally heavy rainfall
northward tonight into Sunday morning, with the highest QPF over
NE NC and srn VA during the 3 AM- 10 AM timeframe. Am rather
confident that our entire forecast area sees rain by Sunday
morning with 80-90% PoPs areawide. Continuing the trend from the
previous shift, QPF has continued to trend down and the highest
totals remain focused well of E I-95, with a wide swath of
1-1.5". SE VA and NE NC have the best chance of seeing 2"+,
though EPS and GEFS probs drop off to nearly zero for 4"+. It`s
still important to mention that some CAMs are more aggressive in
showing heavier rainfall extending further inland. Oppositely,
rain totals would be quite a bit lower than our forecast shows
should a solution like the 00z ECMWF verify. No Flood Watches
given persisting uncertainties, totals trending lower, and dry
antecedent conditions.

Winds will also increase as the low moves north and the highest
winds are expected just N of the elongated sfc low feature and
coastal front. The highest winds are expected late tonight for
coastal NC and VA, shifting north to the Atlantic-facing side of the
VA and MD Eastern Shore after sunrise Sunday morning. Forecasted
wind gusts at the immediate coast are 45-55 mph, with some potential
for 40-45 mph gusts a bit inland into southside Hampton Roads and on
the MD Eastern Shore (toward Salisbury) as well. Wind Advisories
have been issued for portions of Hampton Roads and the Peninsula/middle
Peninsula, as well as the NC OBX. There is enough probability
for 55mph+ gusts at the immediate coast from VA Beach northward
along the coastal counties on the Eastern Shore that a High Wind
Watch has been issued (confidence was too low at this time to
go with High Wind Warnings).


Rain lingers through the rest of Sunday as the large low feature
remains near the area, though the rain intensity should really drop
off by the later afternoon and evening. The winds will also slowly
subside, but remaining breezy to windy near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A lingering coastal low offshore will lead to continuing
  chances for rain and breezy conditions Monday.

- Slowly drying out Tuesday as the low finally departs well
  offshore.

The upper pattern is not very progressive and favors a
stagnant pattern through at least Monday as a sprawling upper low
rotates around itself. Thus, uncertainty is rather high as the model
solutions really diverge with respect to the evolution of the
lingering coastal low(s). The 00z ECMWF solution now rotates
the low offshore of Long Island SW into the DelMarVa coast
Monday afternoon, albeit it`d be quite weak at that point.
Either way, some sort of low will be offshore/nearshore with
continued breezy and unsettled conditions, especially for
northern portions of the area and those at the coast. Mainly dry
wx and mostly cloudy skies are currently anticipated inland,
but this is subject to change. High temperatures range from the
mid 60s to around 70 F, with lows Monday night in the 50s.

Upper heights then build into Tuesday, forcing the sfc and upper low
offshore and away from the area. High pressure over the north-
central CONUS also begins to build SE into the Great Lakes. A
lingering shower or two is possible at the immediate coast;
otherwise, mostly dry Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies E to partly-
mostly sunny inland. Seasonably cool conditions persist, with cooler
temps E (upper 60s) and milder well inland (lower 70s).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry and seasonable for the middle and end of next week.

The synoptic pattern heading into the middle of next week favors a
tall ridge axis to our W. This should keep sfc high pressure N and
NW of the area with mostly dry conditions. A bit milder Wednesday
with highs in the low-mid 70s, along with a return to mostly sunny
skies for the entire area. An upper trough may then dive southward
later Wednesday into Thursday of next week, bringing cooler temps by
Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows follow a cooling trend through
this period starting with 50s Tuesday night and dropping to the low
40s by Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Saturday...

Widespread cloud cover with a mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs are noted
over the area early this morning. Lower level clouds are
expected to develop and/or shift westward toward central VA and
the Piedmont over the next few hours, with MVFR CIGs at RIC by
10z or so. Some model guidance shows localized IFR CIGs as well,
but confidence is too low to reflect in the TAFs at this time.
Flight conditions further degrade to widespread MVFR later this
afternoon and then IFR tonight as a coastal low approaches the
region. Rain will also overspread the southern terminals this
afternoon and then RIC and SBY by this evening and tonight,
reducing visibility. Spotty rain or showers are also possible
earlier than the prevailing wx groups in the TAFs, so will
continue mention of this with PROB30 groups. N-NE winds of 5-10
kt this morning increase to ~10 kt inland and 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20-25 kt near the coast this afternoon. Winds
increase further after 00z, with some potential for 30 kt gusts
at coastal terminals. Rain continues through the night.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR (mostly IFR) CIGs, elevated winds, and
moderate to heavy rain are all likely into Sunday as low
pressure persists just offshore. Degraded flying conditions
(widespread IFR CIGs) likely continue into early next week with
rain chances lingering through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 600 AM EDT Saturday..

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisory conditions persist across most of the
  local waters today.

- Low pressure intensifies south of the area tonight. Gale and
  Storm Warnings go into effect later tonight through
  Sunday/Sunday night. Winds remain elevated Monday and Tuesday
  as the low is slow to move away from the region.


Early morning analysis shows ~1028 mb high pressure well off the
New England coast, with developing low pressure off the east
coast of Florida. Winds range from 10-15 kts across the
northern Ches Bay and coastal waters to 15-25 kt from roughly
Cape Charles to the south. Seas follow a similar pattern with
4-5 ft seas N and 6-8 ft from VA Beach southward. Waves in the
bay are 2-3 ft with 3-5 ft near the mouth of the Bay.

No major changes with respect to the overall evolution of the
coastal low off the coast of FL/GA today, which will track northward
over or close to our waters later Sunday into Monday. While the exact
evolution and timing is still somewhat uncertain, there is
decent agreement that the system lifts up along the Carolina
coast late tonight/early Sunday and becomes elongated from SW
to NE during the day Sunday and Sunday night. This scenario
results in a lengthy period of strong NE winds across the area,
ramping up this evening with winds expected to peak across the
region Sunday morning into early Monday. There remains high
confidence for significant marine hazards, including high winds
(potentially to Storm force for VA-MD Ocean waters) and
dangerous seas. Peak wind gusts range from 45-50 kt on the VA-MD
coastal waters and mouth of the Bay (where a Storm Warning is
now in effect), 40-45 kt in the rest of the Chesapeake Bay and
NC coastal waters, and 35-40 kt in the upper tidal rivers. With
the broader/elongated coastal low, the progression through the
region will be prolonged into Tuesday and potentially early
Wednesday but with winds slowly decreasing to high-end SCA
levels during that period. The gradient finally starts to relax
by mid week with improving marine conditions. Seas are forecast
to peak in the 15-20 ft range (sig wave height), with
occasional waves up to 25+ ft. Sig Waves in the Chesapeake Bay
range between 5-8 ft, with 9-10 ft possible at the mouth of the
bay. As winds decrease next week, so will the seas, but only
gradually.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 600 AM EDT Saturday..

Later tonight through Sunday, as NE winds rapidly increase,
likely to Gale to local storm force by early Sunday, a rapid
rise in anomalies is expected (a surge increase of ~2-2.5 ft in
~12 hrs). The high tide cycle occurring late tonight into early
Sunday is the lower astro tide, so even with a sharp increase,
generally only minor flooding is expected during this period.
The following high tide, occurring around noon Sunday along the
Ocean, and through the aftn elsewhere is the anticipated time
for peak water levels with this event. Widespread moderate to
major coastal flooding is expected during this period from the
northern Neck southward along the west side of the Bay and into
the Rappahannock, York, and James rivers, as well as most
locations along the Ocean. Coastal Flood Warnings are now in
effect for these areas. Some minor flooding is possible with
the high tide cycle tonight for areas along the Bay so some of
the Warnings actually go into effect tonight (with the CFW
product indicating the worst flooding to occur with the
following cycle on Sunday). The highest probs for achieving
Major flood thresholds will be the Ocean from NC OBX to VA
Beach, and the mouth of the Bay areas, as well as portions up
the James river. Precise water levels will be highly dependent
on the track of the low and the associated wind direction, but
confidence has increased this forecast cycle given better model
agreement that a strong NE wind is likely to prevail through the
Sunday tide cycle. The current forecast is for many areas in
the lower Bay/James river to see flooding that has not been
observed in at least a few years if not longer, with top 10
levels likely. Additional flooding is likely into at least
Monday (possibly Tuesday), with the slower progression of
coastal low pressure, though exact water levels become more
uncertain given the potential for winds to diminish somewhat and
to become northwesterly as the low moves away from the coast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Wind Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ024.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for MDZ025.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night
     for MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ017-102.
     High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Monday
     for NCZ102.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday
     for VAZ098>100.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through late Sunday night
     for VAZ099-100.
     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT Sunday for
     VAZ095-097-525.
     Coastal Flood Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM EDT
     Sunday for VAZ075>078-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT
     Monday for VAZ082-089-090-093-095>098-523>525.
     Coastal Flood Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday
     for VAZ083>086-518-520.
     Wind Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Sunday night
     for VAZ084-086-523.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for
     VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ630-631.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ630>632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ633.
     Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Sunday for
     ANZ634.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ638.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ638.
     Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ650-652.
     Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AC/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...LKB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ