192
FXUS61 KAKQ 231749
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1249 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control today, leading to dry
conditions and moderating temperatures. The high pushes offshore
Monday and Tuesday, with very mild temperatures continuing
through Thursday. The next chance for rainfall also comes later
Thursday when another cold front crosses the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Sunny and mild this afternoon.

- Dry and cold tonight.

This afternoon, ~1022 mb high pressure is situated over the
local area. Winds are generally light and variable, though an
onshore wind of ~5 to 10 knots has developed across southeastern
portions of the area. Skies are sunny, with only a few higher
clouds. Temperatures are hovering in the upper 40s to lower 50s
across the region (mid 40s closer to the coast due to the
onshore wind and over areas with remaining snow pack).

High pressure remains over the area tonight, leading to another
dry/cold night. Lows are forecast to drop into the mid-upper
20s for most. Again, a few spots inland may again flirt with
the lower 20s. While an increase in higher clouds is likely, the
calm winds are otherwise favorable for ideal radiational
cooling. Patchy fog is possible late tonight/early Monday
morning, mainly across interior NE NC. Confidence is low at
this time as to how extensive this fog coverage may be.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Mild temperatures Monday and especially Tuesday, with mostly sunny
skies.

Dry weather prevails through the middle of the week. The sfc pattern
will broadly be characterized by high pressure, while the pattern
aloft will be dominated by progressive W-NW flow as several quick-
moving shortwaves dive out of the upper Midwest. The (weak) low-
level flow shifts to the SW Monday and thicknesses begin to
increase...owing to modest warm advection. Thus, Monday will be
milder and high temps in the upper 50s to around 60 F are expected
for the entire area.

For Tuesday, a clipper system and weak front slides through but no
precipitation is expected with this feature. In fact, skies likely
remain mostly sunny. To our SE, low pressure also develops offshore
of the SE coast Tuesday and moves NE. Models continue to keep any
moisture and light precip from this system well to our SE.
Considerably milder with highs in the upper 60s expected W of the
Chesapeake Bay and over SE VA/NE NC, with upper 50s to lower 60s on
the Eastern Shore given SW flow. This continues to be on the upper
edge of the guidance but is supported by some of the higher MOS
output and thickness tools.

Lows Monday and Tuesday nights are in the 30s, with Monday night
likely the cooler of the two.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Spring-like weather continues into Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cold front crosses the area later Thursday, bringing our next
chance for rain.

Another mild day expected Wednesday, though the light flow field
again allows for onshore flow to develop near the coast. Therefore,
highs in the upper 50s-lower 60s are expected at the coast, with mid-
upper 60s inland. Lows in the 40s.

By the later portion of the week, a longwave trough will advance
eastward through the central CONUS, digging into the Deep South by
Thursday. An associated cold front is expected to then cross the
region Thursday, bringing the only chance of measurable rain over
the next week or so. The 00z guidance continues to show reasonable
agreement and the latest trends have continued to slow the line of
showers until the later afternoon or evening. Additionally, the
trough also now shows a more neutral (vs. tilt) as it moves through.
This may allow for a slightly higher coverage of rain/showers across
SE portions of the area, along with some higher QPF. Either way,
it`s still not looking like a major rainmaker for the area. The GEFS
and EPS generally show the potential for up to 0.5" of rain, while
the GEPS (Canadian ensemble) is drier. The chance for thunder
remains low with limited instability. With the front trending
slower, guidance is now in better agreement in mild temps areawide
during the day. Highs in at least the 60s are expected, with some
lower 70s across the SE. Drying out on Friday into next weekend as
high pressure returns, with temperatures likely running close to or
just above average. Another weak front may cross the area later
Saturday, but looks mainly dry at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/23 TAF period. SKC is
expected for most of the period, with an increase in high
clouds/cirrus after 00z. Some guidance also hints at some patchy
fog developing across interior NE NC late tonight, but
confidence is low. Went with a broad 4SM MVFR VSBY after 09z
Monday for now at ECG, but this will likely need to tweaked
with future forecasts. Winds are light and variable inland, NW
at SBY, and NE at the SE terminals. Winds become light and
variable or calm everywhere overnight, with light southerly flow
developing Monday.

Outlook: High pressure remains near the area with VFR/dry
conditions expected through mid week. Winds also stay on the
light side.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Benign marine conditions prevail this weekend through the
  middle of next week.

1027mb high pressure is centered over the Deep South early this
morning. The wind is generally SW 5-10kt and 10-15kt N of
Chincoteague. Seas range from around 2ft S to 2-3ft N, with 1-2ft
waves in the Ches. Bay. A weak trough slides across the coast this
morning resulting in a brief wind shift to NW with speeds of 5-10kt.
High pressure builds over the region later this aftn and remains in
vicinity of the coast through Monday morning. This will result in
very weak flow around 5kt, generally E to SE, but locally variable.
Seas subside to 1-2ft with ~1ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

High pressure slides offshore Monday aftn and remains off the coast
through Tuesday. The wind becomes S 5-10kt Monday aftn and SSW 5-
10kt S to 10-15kt N Monday night into Tuesday. A weak cold front
crosses the coast Tuesday night with a wind shift to NNW 5-10kt
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, before high pressure returns
Wednesday aftn with light flow out of the E to SE. Seas are expected
to generally be 1-2ft Monday aftn through Wednesday, with 1ft to
occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure slides
offshore Wednesday night into Thursday with the wind becoming S then
SW 10-15kt. A stronger cold front crosses the coast Thursday night
with SCA conditions possible Thursday night into Friday morning with
a NNW wind. Seas build to 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N by Thursday, and then 3-
4ft Thursday night into Friday, and potentially up to 5ft. Waves in
the Ches. Bay will mainly be ~2ft Thursday, and then at least 2-3ft
in NNW flow Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJZ