828
FXUS61 KAKQ 221744
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
144 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front drops south through the region later
today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area
into tonight. The front eventually pushes south of the area
later Wednesday, with drier air moving in from the north. Mainly
dry weather prevails Thursday, with another system bringing more
unsettled conditions later Friday through Saturday. Temperatures
will mainly be above normal through Saturday, then seasonable
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A few light showers this morning, mainly across the northern
  2/3 of the FA.

- Scattered showers and storms are expected later this aftn into
  tonight, particularly across southeast Virginia and northeast
  North Carolina (isolated strong to severe storms are
  possible).


The latest WX analysis indicates a strong upper level ridge
across the Bahamas, with a trough over Ontario and Quebec. At
the surface, occluded surface low pressure (~1000mb) is tracking
ENE into northern Quebec (nearly co- located with the upper
low). The warm front from yesterday has lifted NE of the region,
with the trailing cold front on the western border of the CWA.
Latest radar shows a few showers with little to no accumulation
stretching from Lunenburg County to the Eastern Shore.

Scattered light showers will continue through the rest of the
morning. The cold front will be slow to drop south through the
day, given the flow aloft remaining from the WSW. This will tend
to lead to the boundary stalling across southern VA by late
aftn/evening, eventually pushing S of the local area by early
Wed as a backdoor cold front. The latest CAMs show only;y the
potential for a few isolated light showers through early aftn,
with the higher PoPs holding off until mid- late aftn into
tonight. Scattered showers and storms are forecast later this
aftn mainly across southern portions of the FA (40-50% PoPs
during the later afternoon and up to 70% PoPs tonight across the
far south. A few strong to severe storms are also possible from
mid/late aftn into the evening across NE NC. Bulk shear in the
30-40kt range, along with steep low level lapse rates are
expected across far southern VA and NE NC. SPC has day 1 in a
Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe weather with a 5% chc for
damaging winds and 5% for large hail. Any severe threat
diminishes towards midnight, though PoPs linger overnight across
the SE, as the next shortwave in association with the upper
trough crosses the region. Lows range from the mid 50s NW to the
mid 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A few lingering showers are possible Wednesday across the far
  southern portions of the area, then mainly dry Wednesday night
  into Thursday.

The model consensus for Wednesday is for shortwave energy to be
pushing off the coast ~12Z, which should be sufficient to force
the boundary farther to the south of the local area into central
NC by aftn. Have maintained some low chc PoPs across far
southern VA , with up to ~50% in NE NC through the aftn, but
tightened up the gradient to keep it dry across the remainder of
the CWA with >1025mb sfc high pressure building SE from Ontario
into the mid- Atlantic later in the day. Instability looks to
push south of the local area as well, so removed any mention of
tstms. Any lingering showers taper off by Wed evening. Highs
will be cooler, especially near the coast with the onshore flow,
ranging from the mid to upper 70s well inland, to the upper
60s/lower 70s near the coast(and locally only in the lower
60s for the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore). Mostly clear
and cool Wed night with diminishing winds. Lows in the mid 40s
to lower 50s inland, and ranging through 50s at the immediate
coast. Partly-mostly sunny with near to slightly above avg
temperatures Thursday with highs ranging from 75-80F inland to
the upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast. A few showers may try to
push into SW portions of the FA by aftn, but mainly dry
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining warmer than average, and turning unsettled Friday
  into Saturday evening.

- Drier, with near normal temperatures Sunday-Monday

The next upper trough is forecast to amplify from central
Canada later Fri, becoming a strong upper trough across the
upper Great Lakes to New England by later Sat. At the surface,
an area of low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes Friday,
and into New England Sat, pushing a warm front north across the
area Fri before the associated cold front moves through Sat
afternoon into Sat night. With a fairly strong upper level ridge
over the central CONUS Sun-Mon, the NW flow aloft downstream
over the NE CONUS should allow fro a strong area of sfc high
pressure to build SE into the local area into early next week.
Scattered showers and storms are possible Fri across with the
warm front, particularly across western portions of the FA
(35-50% PoPs). The highest chance for showers and storms will be
Sat along the cold front as PoPs increase to 60-80%. Sun and
Mon look cooler and drier behind the front with highs in the 70s
(with mid/upper 60s near the coast).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail to start the 18z/22 TAF period as a cold
front slowly moves towards the area from the NW before
stalling/weakening near the VA/NC state border overnight. Scattered
to broken high clouds will continue ahead of the front this
afternoon, along with light winds out of the SW. With the cold
front, some showers and isolated storms are possible this evening,
especially at ORF/PHF/ECG, starting around 23z/22-00z/23 and
increasing in coverage through 08z/23. Behind the front, winds will
shift to be NE 5-10kt, and with likely MVFR to IFR flight
restrictions developing at ECG and ORF between 06-12z/23.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers are possible again Wednesday
afternoon across far southern VA and NE NC, which could have impacts
on flight categories. Mainly VFR Wednesday night through Thursday
night, with scattered showers returning Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign marine pattern expected to persist from today
  through Friday.

- Winds increase ahead of and especially behind a stronger cold
  front this weekend with Small Craft conditions possible.

Ridge of high pressure lingers offshore ahead of a weakening surface
low over southern Canada. A slow-moving cold front extends to the
south and southwest across the Appalachians. Winds locally are SW at
10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves in the Ches Bay are around 2 ft
with seas 2-4 ft offshore.

Compressed gradient that resulted in marginal SCA conditions in the
bay will relax early this morning, becoming SW 10-15 kt around
sunrise and 5-10 kt by the afternoon hours. Local sea breeze
circulations this afternoon will lead to erratic wind direction
changes as large scale synoptic forcing weakens. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the evening
across the southern waters, mainly near and south of the VA/NC
border. Locally enhanced winds/waves/seas can be expected in the
vicinity of any thunderstorms. The weak front will drop south across
the waters tonight with winds becoming NE ~10 kt (locally 10-15 kt
over northern portions of the coastal waters as well as the southern
Ches Bay/lower James) tonight. Sub-SCA onshore flow is expected to
continue Thursday and the first half of Friday before becoming SE 10-
15 kt Friday afternoon/evening as weak high pressure to the north
translates offshore. 00z guidance has backed off somewhat regarding
stronger southerly winds ahead of the weekend front but a period of
SCA conditions remains possible on Saturday. Northerly surge behind
the front is more likely to result in widespread SCA conditions
across the local waters Saturday night into Sunday. Waves will
generally be 1-2 ft in the Ches Bay this week, increasing to 2-3 ft
Saturday and potentially 2-4 ft for a period behind the frontal
passage. Seas will average 2-3 ft through the week, building to 3-4
Saturday and possibly 4-6 ft late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AC/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...RHR