791
FXUS61 KAKQ 091959
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
259 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will pass through the region tonight chances
for rain showers. Much colder temperatures arrive Monday and
especially Tuesday with widespread below freezing temperatures
expected Tuesday morning. Dry with seasonable temperatures
expected Tuesday through Saturday with high pressure in control.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Becoming much cooler tonight in the wake of a strong cold
  front.

- Scattered showers expected especially closer to the coast
  overnight.

The wedge has broken across the area with much of the region in the
upper 60s-mid 70s this afternoon. However, the strong cold front is
just west of the area and will enter the Piedmont around 00z. The
front will slow down as it passes across the area as the upper
trough starts to become negatively tilted. This will allow some
Atlantic moisture to move northward along the front overnight. As
such, while areas along/west of I-95 will only have slight chances
of rain mainly this evening, areas east of I-95 and especially
closer to the coast will see increasing shower activity by midnight,
and continuing through sunrise despite the front being offshore. It
will become much colder tonight, but all places should remain above
freezing. Lowest temps will be in the Piedmont with upper 30s
expected while areas close to the coast will drop to the upper 40s.

CAMS continue to show a small probability for lightning later this
evening over the SE with HREF mean CAPE of around 500 j/kg. As such,
will maintain a slight chance of thunder in this area through early
morning although time of day will likely limit coverage of
storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Much cooler Monday. A Freeze Warning now in effect for Monday
  Night with widespread below freezing temperatures expected.

- A few flurries or light snow showers possible Monday Night.

Behind the front it will be cold and breezy with temperatures likely
staying in the low-mid 50s. The main upper trough will pass over the
area on Monday night bringing very steep low-mid level lapse rates
as well as some mid level moisture and weak lift. This may allow for
some light precipitation to fall across the northern tier Monday
evening, then further SE overnight. However, am expected this
precipitation to be very light (perhaps mostly virga) as there is
significant dry air forecast in the lowest 100 MB of the atmosphere
as noted in the inverted V sounding across much of the area due to
the strong NW low level flow off the mountains. However, if
precipitation does fall, it could be a light rain/snow mix or
perhaps all snow later on in the night as the temperatures at the
sfc and aloft cool. No accumulation is expected due to the light
nature of the precipitation, but some places will likely see some
early season snow flakes on Monday night. Expect a widespread hard
freeze across the area, perhaps even to the beaches. There is about
a 80% probability of temperatures dropping below 28F in many
locations away from the immediate coast Monday night. As such, will
upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning with this issuance.
This upper trough and very cold air will allow for deep mixing, even
over the land. Gusty winds are expected through the night across the
region. This will allow for very low wind chills for this time of
year across the area. Certainly wind chills in the lower 20s can be
expected with some wind chills in the teens. In fact, the 25th
percentile Wind Chill from the NBM Tuesday morning is in the teens
throughout the area. Not close to cold weather advisory criteria,
but nonetheless a very cold airmass for this time of year.

Dry on Tuesday but very cold and breezy with temperatures likely not
rising out of the 40s. Continued dry on Wednesday but warmer with
temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures for the middle to end
  of next week.

Temperatures near normal with mostly dry conditions expected Thursday
through next Sunday. Upper heights gradually start to build across
the region as the sharp trough early in the week moves northeast and
becomes closed off over the Canadian Maritimes while a ridge builds
over the middle of the country. This will keep the Middle Atlantic
mostly dry through the extended period, although there is a small
chance for rain next Sunday depending on how quickly the next trough
approaches the area. Thursday will likely be the coolest day in the
extended with about a 40% probability of rising above 60F in the SW
and less than 10% in MD. By Sunday, these probabilities rise to 60-
90% with the probability of 70+ as high as 30% in the SW part of the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Sunday...

After many sites seeing IFR or LIFR CIGs this morning, skies are
starting to break out with CIGs becoming MVFR or VFR or gone
completely as the warm front moves north of the area. Expect VFR
conditions through the afternoon at all sites with south winds of
around 10 kt. However, a cold front currently over the Appalachians
will move west to east across the area late this afternoon into
tonight. This may allow for a few showers at RIC this evening but no
flight restrictions are expected. As the front approaches the coast,
additional shower activity is expected as some moisture is picked up
from the Atlantic and a weak area of low pressure develops along the
front. While widespread MVFR is not expected, nor forecast in the
terminals, it is possible that the sites closer to the coast
(ORF/SBY/ECG) may see ocnl MVFR after midnight tonight, until the
front completely moves off the coast around sunrise Monday. VFR
conditions expected Monday although NW winds will gust to 10 to 20kt
at times especially in the afternoon.

Outlook: There is a slight chc of light rain and/or snow showers
Monday night with an upper level system, but conditions should
remain VFR. VFR/dry Tuesday through Thursday with breezy conditions
during the aftn hours.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Sunday..

Key Messages:

- A strong cold front crosses the waters tonight, with elevated
  winds and seas expected into the middle of the week. Small
  Craft Advisories have been issued starting Monday morning.

- Gale watches have been issued for the coastal waters,
  Chesapeake Bay, and Currituck Sound Monday night into Tuesday.

A warm front lifted through the region this morning and early
afternoon ahead of a strong cold front set to cross local waters
tonight. Latest obs indicate S-SW winds generally around 10kt with a
few sites across the northern waters closer to 15kt. Seas are 2-3ft
this afternoon and waves are 1-2ft. The front looks like it will
cross local waters around midnight tonight. Gusty showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected with along the front.
Behind it, winds will shift to the NW and pick up to around 15kt
through early Monday. Gusty winds continue through the day Monday at
15-20kt. Did go ahead and issue some SCAs for Monday starting with
the northern bay zone at 12z, then adding the rest of the bay, the
lower James, and coastal waters north of Cape Charles at 21z, then
the southern coastal waters and Currituck Sound at 00z Tues.

Late Monday night is when the CAA will really ramp up. Given the
degree of airmass change (850 mb temps dropping to -8 to -10 C) over
still-relatively mild waters, Gale conditions appear increasingly
likely Monday night into Tuesday - at least for the coastal waters.
WNW winds increase to 25-30kt (20-25kt in the rivers) after midnight
Monday night/Tuesday morning with gusts 30-35 in the bay and rivers
and up to 40kt over coastal waters. Local wind probs depict upward
of 95% probs for 34kt+ wind gusts while probs for the bay have
dropped off to almost none.  Decided to maintain the Gale Watches as
they are for this forecast cycle since it is more marginal in nature
and we are still over 24 hours out from onset. Winds diminish down
to 20-25kt Tues evening and Tues night as they turn to the SW.
Elevated west winds continue through Wed and into Thurs before
finally dropping below SCA thresholds Thur evening/night.

Seas increase to 4-5ft early Monday night, then again to 4-6ft by
Tuesday afternoon. Offshore wind direction should keep highest seas
closer to 20nm out. Seas drop below 5ft later in the week. Waves in
the bay will be 1-2ft today, 2-3ft Monday, and 3-5ft Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Freeze Warning from 10 PM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for
     VAZ065-075>090-092-093-095>100-512>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ630.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
     for ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ631-632-634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ633-656-658.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     ANZ638.
     Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AC