279
FXUS61 KAKQ 131901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
301 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region this weekend, as another
area of high pressure builds into New England early next week.
This will allow for dry conditions to persist, along with a
modest warmup through Monday. Confidence continues to increase
that a developing coastal low impacts the region by the middle
of next week, resulting in the return of widespread cloud
cover, cooler temperatures, and increasing rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Breezy across SE VA/NE NC this afternoon with gusts up to around
  20 mph possible.

- Partly to mostly clear and cool tonight, with patchy fog
  possible inland and over the MD Lower Eastern Shore late
  tonight/early Sunday.

Latest analysis shows 1024mb surface high pressure over
Atlantic Canada, with surface ridging extending down the east
coast across our area into the deep south. Meanwhile, a well-
defined quasi- stationary frontal boundary remains draped off
the east coast over the Gulf Stream this afternoon. The front is
oriented beneath a narrow mid-level trough, which extends down
the mid- Atlantic and southeast coast. A weak area of low
pressure is developing along the front north of the Bahamas and
that will continue to drift NNW offshore of the coastal
Carolinas through the weekend. Aloft, an upper-level omega block
pattern remains in place over the CONUS, with longwave ridging
over the nation`s midsection extending well north into central
Canada, on either side of troughing over QC/New England and the
Pacific NW, respectively.

The pressure gradient gradually tightens between the coastal low
well to our southeast, and the high pressure centered to the north.
This will result in increasingly breezy NE winds this afternoon
across SE VA/NE NC. Gusts up to 15-20 mph are possible, with the
highest gusts near/along the coast. The trough to the south is
also responsible for some mid to high level cloudiness and some
scattered showers over the coastal Carolinas. Those showers will
stay well to our south, but partly cloudy conditions are
expected across the southeast coastal plain this afternoon, with
mainly sunny conditions inland. Highs this afternoon in the
mid-upper 70s to lower 80s are expected, with the warmest temps
inland and the coolest temps along the SE coast in increased
cloud cover and onshore flow.

Another cool night is expected tonight with lows in the mid 50s
for most inland areas (locally upper 50s) and mid 60s along the
coast. Some lows in the lower 50s are once again likely well
inland over the piedmont and north of RIC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining generally dry with near normal temperatures through Monday.

- Breezy conditions are possible along the coast through Monday.

High pressure gradually builds southeast from Canada tomorrow
into Monday. Meanwhile, the sfc trough off the southeast coast
closes off, as low pressure begins to deepen further late
tomorrow and Monday. The resultant NE flow slowly increases due
to the compressing pressure gradient, with gusts again to ~15-20
kt along the coast tomorrow and ~20kt along the coast on Monday.
Given that the low remains offshore of the SE NC coast through
Monday night, rain chances remain relatively low away from NE
NC and far SE VA. PoPs remain ~20-30% in this area by late
Monday afternoon. High temperatures in the low- mid 80s each
day inland, upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Confidence continues to increase in a coastal low impacting
  the area through the middle of next week with widespread rain
  and breezy winds along the coast possible.

- A warmup is expected by late week into next weekend.

Cool, dry high pressure again builds down into New England, and
will ridge south into the local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low
lifts north along the coast through mid-week. Aloft, the
previously referenced upper ridge builds down across the Great
Lakes for the mid to late week period, as the PAC NW trough
builds in behind it across the Canadian Prairies, with the upper
pattern orienting SW to NE through midweek.

The main feature of note for our region remains the upper
trough that lingers off the Carolina coast, and there remains a
bit of a mixed signal from guidance with this feature. The
12z/13 GFS remains a bit more progressive and farther offshore,
with the CMC and ECMWF each a bit more protracted with rainfall
potential, showing a closed low solution that is closer to the
mid-Atlantic coast. Of note, the 12z/GFS has trended a bit
toward the EC/CMC consensus, but still lags behind with lower
QPF and a warmer, drier midweek scenario. For its part, the
NBM now advertising 30-50% PoPs across the southern half of the
area late Mon night into Tuesday, increasing to 40-60% across
the area Tue and Wed. Most model guidance has the trough lifting
out of the area by late week, with PoPs decreasing to 15-20% by
Thu night/Friday.

Given trends to increase PoP/QPF from the NBM and deterministic
models, confidence continues to slowly increase that another
cycle of increasing clouds and cooler conditions are likely for
Tue/Wed, with widespread rain and breezy winds along the coast
and occasional rain/drizzle inland possible for midweek. The
EPS continues to show 0.75-1" of rain north of I-64 and 1-1.7"
south of I-64 (highest totals across SE VA/NE NC). The GEPS
(Canadian ensemble) also leans towards to the EPS with >1"
possible across eastern VA/NC. The GEFS remains the low
outlier, showing < 0.55" west of I-95 and 0.5" east of I-95.
Again though, the GEFS has trended toward the slower EPS/GEPS
solution.

Given this potential, bear in mind that highs Tue and/or Wed
may well be cooler than the mid- upper 70s currently in the
forecast depending on exact timing and coverage of rainfall. In
any case, cooler weather can be expected Tue and Wed with temps
beginning to warm by Thu into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Drier
and warmer weather looks to return for Fri and Sat with highs
in the mid 80s possible Fri and low to mid 80s Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions across area terminals to begin the 18z/13 TAF
period. Mainly sunny conditions inland, with increasing mid to
high clouds over SE terminals. Aside from increasing high clouds
and some scattered cumulus along the coast, relatively pleasant
conditions across the region through this evening. NE winds
increase to 5-10 kt continue this afternoon inland, closer to
10-15 kt SE coastal terminals, along with gusts around 20 kt.

Outlook: Mainly dry weather and VFR conditions are likely for
all terminals through the weekend. Will likely see some
additional ground fog at SBY late tonight, with some ground fog
also forecast at PHF after 04z/midnight EDT. Another coastal
low approaches Mon through midweek, leading to an increase in
clouds, rain showers, and the potential for sub-VFR CIGs,
especially for SE coastal terminals (ECG/ORF/PHF).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been extended into Sunday for the northern OBX, mainly
  due to elevated seas.

- A High Rip Risk remains in place for the southern beaches with a
  Moderate Rip Risk across the northern beaches through Monday.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected on Sunday but seas around 5
  ft are possible south of the VA/NC border. Elevated NE winds
  are likely early next week.

High pressure is in place across eastern North America with weak low
pressure off the SE coast. The gradient between these features is
allowing for a ~15 kt NE wind over the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters,
with 10-15 kt winds over the Lower Bay, and 5-10 kt over northern
portions of the marine area. Seas are ~3 ft N and 4-6 ft S. SCAs
remain in effect (mainly for seas) from Cape Charles Light
southward. Opted to extend the the southern-most coastal zone
off the NC OBX into Sunday morning as the latest wave guidance
keeps seas above 5 ft in this area. Some uncertainty thereafter
as NE winds are expected to drop below 15 kt through most of the
day Sunday but models maintain 5 ft seas across the southern
coastal zone.

Another increase in NE winds (likely to SCA criteria across most of
the marine area) is expected early next week as a weak coastal low
likely develops to our south and potentially lifts north along the
coast. 12z guidance is in relatively good agreement showing winds
increasing late Monday afternoon. Peak wind speeds (NE between 15-25
kt with gusts to 20-30 kt) are expected to occur from Monday night
through Tuesday night. The highest wind speeds are expected to occur
across southern portions of the marine area. Winds are forecast to
diminish on Wednesday/Thursday but the latest GFS shows the low
lifting N along the coast during this period while the remainder of
the guidance has a much weaker low still S or SE of the local
area. Accordingly, there is still uncertainty regarding the
strength/track of any potential coastal low, SCAs appear likely
for at least the ocean due to seas, with a good chance of a
period of sustained 18+ kt winds across the Lower Bay, Lower
James River, and Currituck Sound as well. The current forecast
has widespread 5-6 ft seas/3-5 ft waves by Monday night/Tuesday.
Could definitely see seas a bit higher than 6 ft across the SE
VA/NE NC coastal waters.

Rip Currents: A high rip current risk remains in effect for the
southern beaches and a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Seas
remain elevated at the southern beaches with an 7-8 s period. This
high rip current risk continues across the southern beaches on
Sunday and Monday (and likely through Tuesday).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RMM
LONG TERM...MAM/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI/RHR