796
FXUS61 KAKQ 040742
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts farther offshore today. An area of low
pressure nudges up the Southeast coast Thursday into Thursday
night, before moving offshore Friday. This feature could bring
increased cloud cover and some showers. A cold front approaches
Friday and crosses the region Saturday, bringing a return to
chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly clear skies with lows in the 50s tonight.

GOES water vapor channels show a ridge across the Mid- Atlantic
region early this morning, which is N of a developing low over
the NE Gulf. WV/IR channels even depict somewhat of a baroclinic
leaf structure to the moisture/cloud pattern N and NE of the
developing low. At the surface, high pressure is centered
offshore and extends inland into the Mid-Atlantic. Clear and not
as cool early this morning with temperatures in the upper 50s
to mid 60s.

Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface continue to
prevail locally today. Very dry air aloft should result in a
sunny sky, with a few bands of cirrus approaching from the S
later in the day. The thickest upper level smoke pushed E of the
area yesterday, and the latest vertically integrated smoke
forecast from the HRRR keep the thickest bands of upper level
smoke E and W of the local area. High temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday reaching the mid to upper 80s,
with upper 70s/lower 80s at the immediate coast. The low in the
NE Gulf trundles to the northeast today into tonight in response
to the mid/upper level anticyclone shifting offshore and an
upper trough digging N of the Great Lakes. This should result in
increasing high clouds tonight. Forecast lows are in the mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure moving up the Carolina coast casts uncertainty
  Thursday into Friday, but increased clouds and showers remain
  in the forecast.

- High temperatures also remain cooler for Thursday and Friday.

Considerable uncertainty continues for the Thursday to Friday
time period. Large model spread continues with respect to the
evolution of the upper low and developing surface low in
vicinity of the Southeast coast or just inland. The general
consensus from the 00z/04 CAMs is a more northward extent
quicker arrival of showers in the 12-18z period Thursday, while
the other end of the envelope is the ECMWF/EPS and the CMC suite
of models, which are slower and more suppressed to the S. This
trend continues Thursday into Thursday night where the more
suppressed models struggle to bring moisture northward into
southern VA and NE NC. Meanwhile, some of the CAMs develop
significant rainfall over southern/SE VA and NE NC. Examining
the ensemble statistics, the EPS/GEFS each have notable spread
in the interquartile rainfall range, 25th-75th percentiles. In
summary, this type of pattern can be conducive to heavy rainfall
with enhanced low-level easterly flow S of a strong ridge to
the N. However, the main question is whether it reaches as far N
as our local area or remains suppressed S of the Albemarle
Sound. The Day 2 WPC ERO has a marginal risk area into NE NC and
southern/SE VA, and this seems appropriate given the
uncertainty.

NHC continues to show this low as having a very low (10%)
chance of briefly developing subtropical characteristics later
in the week, and some of the model guidance does hint at this
while still maintaining frontal characteristics. This would be
contingent on the low remaining offshore. Even if it does, no
ensemble member from the EPS/GEFS suite drops the min pressure
below 1004-1006 mb. Overall, the main impacts from this low will
be a potential for heavy rainfall, and possible breezy
conditions along the coast Thursday night into early Friday.

Given clouds around and lower temperatures, instability looks
rather meager Thursday and Friday. There could be some recovery
later Friday to support renewed shower/tstm development, mainly
over the Piedmont as a cold front and shortwave aloft approach
from the W. However, this potential is also of low confidence
given the previous discussion surrounding the coastal low.

Forecast highs Thursday are mainly in the mid/upper 70s S to
lower 80s N, with mid/upper 70s E to lower/mid 80s W Friday.
There is still uncertainty with exact numbers given the
cloud/rainfall situation. The GFS still has highs in the
5th-10th percentile of the global ensemble members Thursday, and
the NAM/ECMWF are actually near or below the 5th percentile
along the coast Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warm to hot temperatures with increased shower/thunderstorm
  chances Saturday ahead of a cold front.

- Drier Sunday, followed by more unsettled weather early next
  week.

Enhanced mid-level flow (30-40 kt at 500 mb) overspreads the
area Saturday and the GEFS/EPS ensembles are in good agreement
that a cold front will cross the area during the afternoon or
evening. An attendant shortwave aloft should also support a
higher coverage of showers/tstms and PoPs remain the 50-60%
range for the area, with the highest coverage across the N and
NW. With dew points near 70 and warm temps, instability could be
favorable for some strong to severe tstms. A few of the machine
learning aids continue to hint at this possibility. The
coverage of precip should drop off overnight Saturday as the
cold front sags S. Sunday now looks drier, outside a few pop-up
afternoon showers as the front pushes into NC. Highest PoPs are
S of the area and closer to the remnant frontal feature, which
is supported by diminishing PW anomalies in the 00z EPS/GEFS. An
unsettled pattern may develop by Monday and Tuesday along a
developing frontal wave, with EPS/GEFS showing an increase in PW
anomalies.

Forecast highs are in the mid/upper 80s ahead of the front
Saturday, and it will be noticeable more humid with dewpoints
nearing or reaching 70F. Would not be surprised if we see some
lower 90s Saturday, especially if convection holds off until
later in the day. Temperatures trend back toward average Sunday
into early next week behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure centered off the coast continues to prevail as of
06z. VFR under a clear sky with a light S wind. VFR conditions
continue to prevail today into tonight as high pressure remains
the predominate feature locally. The wind will mainly be SSW
5-10kt later this morning into early aftn, before becoming
S/SE by mid-late aftn and into early evening, and then light out
of the S tonight. High clouds increase tonight as low pressure
approaches from the S.

This area of low pressure moves into the eastern Carolinas
Thursday/Thursday night, and then nudges offshore Friday.
Confidence in the details is low. However, there is a potential
for showers with heavy rain and degraded flight conditions,
primarily for the southeastern terminals, with a lesser chc from
RIC to SBY. Additionally, a breezy easterly wind is possible
along the coast Thursday night into early Friday. A cold front
will approach from the NW Saturday bringing a 50-60% chc of
showers/tstms. This front remains near of just S of the area
Sunday with a 20-30% chc of showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through Thursday, as high
  pressure settles off the coast. Southerly winds will be
  highest (~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt) during the late
  afternoon-late evening from today-Thursday.

- A low pressure system develops to our south on Thursday, and
  this could bring SCA conditions to part of the marine area on
  Friday with E-SE winds and increasing seas.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected from Saturday afternoon
  through Sunday.

High pressure is now offshore early this morning, with 10-15 kt
S-SW winds and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves. Prevailing sub-SCA
conditions will continue through Thu evening. Similar to
yesterday, the wind will become S-SE during the late aftn
through late evening and increase to around or just above 15 kt
with frequent gusts up to 20 kt. Guidance is hinting that winds
could be a couple knots higher than yesterday, but will hold off
on SCAs for the bay given that any gusts greater than 20 kt
will be very short lived (if they occur). Local wind probs for
sustained 18 kt winds are 20-35% on the bay for a few hours this
evening. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt tonight and become S-SSW
once again. Thursday will be similar to today`s wind pattern,
featuring lighter winds in the morning followed by a SSE wind
surge in the late afternoon/evening hours (sustained wind speeds
likely increase to around 15 kt). Seas will be generally 2-3 ft
in the coastal waters and waves will be 1-3 ft in the
Chesapeake Bay through Thursday.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the development and
exact track/strength of a surface low Thursday night-Friday.
Guidance has started to come into better agreement, but since
this is a relatively small scale feature there is more
uncertainty than normal even though it is 2 days away. The
latest 00z/04 models are more aggressive with winds across our
southern marine zones. They show the low tracking through NC
from Thursday-early Friday AM before moving offshore of the NC
coast during the day on Fri while gradually deepening. This
track would likely result in an increase in a period of elevated
E-ESE winds across the lower bay, James River, and SE VA/NE NC
coastal waters from Fri AM through the aftn before winds
diminish Fri night. For now have gone close to NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC
consensus in collaboration w/ neighboring offices...which gives
a period of 15-20 kt winds (w/ gusts to 25 kt) on Fri S of Cape
Charles/New Pt Comfort. Regardless of the winds/exact track of
the low, increasing SE swell produced by the low will put our
coastal waters into SCA conditions with seas building to 5 to
perhaps 6 ft by Friday. While winds fall below SCA criteria no
later than Fri night, 5 ft seas may linger into Sat AM.
Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are expected later Sat through Sun
(although aftn/evening tstms are expected...especially on Sat).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SW
LONG TERM...AJZ/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI