695
FXUS61 KAKQ 201037
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
637 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger cold front crosses the area later today into Monday.
While scattered showers and storms storms are possible along the
front Monday, mainly dry weather is otherwise expected for the
week. This front should also bring a return to seasonable
temperatures and humidity for the middle portion of the week,
before temperatures and humidity again rise by Friday and the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A much lower coverage of showers and storms is expected today.
  The best chance for an isolated storm or two is on the
  Eastern Shore this afternoon.

- Hot and humid again today with the highest heat indices
  (105-109 F) in southeast VA and northeast NC. A Heat Advisory
  is in effect from 11 AM-8 PM in these areas.

Much quieter weather is in store for today. The stationary
front that has been focusing all the convection over the Mid-
Atlantic the past two days has pushed N as of warm front. Aloft,
a weak shortwave is passing just N of the area, with a large
ridge of high pressure over the southern CONUS. Some low
stratus and fog has also developed over the area, but should
burn off by 8 AM or so.

A stronger cold front over the Great Lakes and OH Valley will focus
most shower and thunderstorm activity NW of the area today. In fact,
the upper level pattern is not particularly conducive for
convection over the area today with modest height rises and no
additional shortwaves expected. A few CAMs do show some isolated
shower/storm activity over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore
later this afternoon, but confidence in this scenario is quite
low. Will have 20-30% PoPs in these areas and <20% elsewhere.
SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for most of our CWA, but this
is mainly to capture the very low-end chance that stronger
storms to our NW spill into our area tonight. Should a storm
survive, the kinematic environment could support a stronger
storm or two. Again, this potential is very low but nonetheless
will continue to monitor. Mostly to partly sunny this afternoon
with highs warming into the mid 90s for most (lower 90s on the
Eastern Shore). With dew points remaining in the mid-upper 70s,
peak heat indices range from 100 to 109 degrees, with the best
potential for Heat Advisory criteria (105 to 109 F) across
srn/SE VA and NE NC. Have raised a Heat Advisory from 11 AM-8 PM
today in these areas. Forecast lows tonight are in the low-mid
70s inland and upper 70s at the immediate coast. The cold front
will drop southward through the area tonight, bringing a wind
shift to the N by sunrise Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and storms are possible Monday, especially for
  western/southwest portions of the area, as a cold front
  remains in the vicinity of the local area.

- Seasonable temperatures and lower humidity expected by
  Tuesday, along with mainly dry weather.

The front looks to remain in the vicinity of S/SW portions of our
CWA through Monday. This could spark some afternoon convection in
these areas, with some potential for upstream activity to also move
through in the later afternoon and evening. The coverage of
convection is highly dependent on where the front ultimately ends up.
CAM solutions are quite divergent and suggest convection could stay
confined to the far SW or encroach all the way to the I-95 corridor.
At this time, will maintain NBM PoPs of 30-50% W of I-95 and S of I-
64. Dry conditions are expected for the Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore. A gradient in high temps is also expected with temps warming
into the upper 80s-lower 90s along and S of the front, with mid 80s
to the N. Lows Monday night currently look to drop into the mid-
upper 60s inland and lower 70s near the coast, but could be a few
degrees cooler if skies can clear.

High pressure builds toward the area from the north Tuesday as the
front drops further S and mainly dry weather weather is anticipated.
A lingering shower or storm could occur across the SW Piedmont given
the NW flow aloft, but the chance is quite low (20% or less).
Otherwise, a very nice day is expected with noticeably lower
humidity and high temperatures in the mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night
again look to be in the 60s for most, though lower 70s tend to
linger near the coast where the ocean/bay water remains warm.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- A gradual warming trend starts Wednesday, with hot and humid
  conditions again returning by the end of the week and weekend.

Relatively benign weather is expected from Wednesday through the end
of the week, with minimal rain chances in the forecast. Seasonable
Wednesday and Thursday with comfortable afternoon humidity levels.
While this will bring much-needed relief, it unfortunately is
not expected to last long. Upper ridging will build across the
area by later Thursday which will propel temperatures back up
above normal Friday into next weekend. Rising temperatures will
happen in conjunction with increasing low-level moisture and
humidity, so heat indices will be back on the rise. While we are
not expecting any heat products out in the coming work week,
Heat Advisories may be required by the weekend. Low-end chances
for afternoon/evening storms also return for the weekend period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Sunday...

Low stratus and patchy fog has developed over the region this
morning, with intermittent IFR-LIFR restrictions at RIC, SBY,
PHF, and ORF (mainly due to CIGs). Expect CIGs to gradually rise
over the next few hours to MVFR and then VFR late this morning
and afternoon. Light SSW winds will shift to the west this
afternoon ahead of an approaching front. Winds could be locally
gusty (to 15-20 kt), especially at RIC/SBY. There is a low
chance of a shower/storm on the Eastern Shore this afternoon and
have a PROB30 for SHRA at SBY from 18-21z. Mainly clear skies
after 00z this evening with light and variable winds.

Outlook: A few showers and storms are possible Monday,
especially W/SW of the terminals. There could be patchy ground
fog and/or low stratus with localized flight restrictions early
Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Otherwise, mainly dry weather.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front drops across the waters late tonight into Monday
  morning. SCAs will go into effect for late tonight into early
  Monday morning with the associated post-frontal surge of
  cooler, drier air across the waters.

- Winds remain elevated out of the E-NE Monday night through
  Wednesday, but look to remain predominately sub-SCA. Seas do
  look to build to 3-4 ft Wednesday with increasing SE Swell
  and wind waves.

- A period of elevated southwesterly winds is possible Thursday
  night.

Latest surface analysis depicted low pressure over the upper Great
lakes and southern Ontario. The associated warm front was draped
across the upper Ches bay north of the local area. the trailing cold
front extended across the eastern Great Lakes back into the central
plains. Offshore, Bermuda ridging remains anchored well out in the
western Atlantic, extending back SW into the eastern gulf. Winds
were W-SW ~10 kt this morning. Seas 2-3ft (highest north) with waves
1-2 ft over the bay, rivers and sound.

Flow remains SSW today ~10kt, as the warm front slips farther north
through the day and sfc ridging slides farther offshore. Previously
referenced cold front still looks to drop SSE across the local area
waters late tonight into Monday, with a northerly wind surge likely
late tonight through mid-morning Monday. Winds become N 10-15kt with
gusts up to 20 kt during this period. While in-house probs for 18kt
sustained winds remain low (10 to 30%), still anticipate that we
will see at least a brief round of SCAs with this surge late
tonight/Monday morning given the CAA/drier air post-frontal,
along with pressure rises from the N and warm local waters well
into the upper 70s to low 80s F. Have therefore gone with an
SCA for the Ches Bay and lower James River late tonight through
mid-morning Monday. Northerly winds remain elevated ~10-15 kt
through the day on Mon, gradually becoming NE by late Mon
afternoon/evening. An secondary CAA surge of winds is expected
Mon night as the gradient re- compresses as sfc high builds
south across New England and ridges into the region from the NE.
Seas build to 2-3 ft Mon (and may get that high in the lower
Bay/lower James Monday as well).

Seasonally cool 1024+ mb sfc high pressure builds over New England
Monday and Tuesday, before building south offshore of the Delmarva
coast Tuesday through Wednesday night. NNW winds back to the
northeast by Monday afternoon and remain NE 10-15 kt from late
Monday evening through early Wed morning, with gusts to 20 kt each
evening in the lower bay, Currituck Sound, lower James and over the
coastal waters. Winds veer more E-SE later Wed through late week, as
the high sets up in the western Atlantic into next weekend, with
elevated SSW winds possible Thu aftn and night and again on
Friday night/early Saturday. Seas remain mostly in the 2- 3 ft
range, building to 3-4 ft Tuesday night through Wednesday night
with a combination of wind wave and building SE swell. Seas
could briefly approach 5 ft over the far S waters Wed into Wed
afternoon.

Rip Currents: A low risk of rip currents is expected through Monday,
but may flirt with moderate by midweek with building seas and
orientation of swell becoming more shore normal Tue-Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Blackwater River in
Dendron. River levels continue to fall slowly but are still
above minor criteria, so the warning has been extended until
further notice.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ065-079-084-086>090-092-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...LKB/MAM
HYDROLOGY...