940
FXUS61 KAKQ 101953
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
353 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low approaches from the west this afternoon before
lingering over the area Friday through Sunday, allowing for cool,
cloudy, and unsettled weather to prevail through the weekend. Drier
and warmer weather returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing clouds this afternoon with milder temperatures.

- Showers move in from west to east across the area late this afternoon
  into tonight.

Latest analysis depicted sfc high pressure off the New England coast
with one area of low pressure over Ohio and another over IA.
Temps as of 3 PM ranged from the 50s across the Eastern Shore to
the mid- upper 60s inland in VA/NC. Party cloudy skies E and
mostly cloudy skies W were noted. However, as the upper level
trough moves closer to the area later this afternoon, cloud
cover is expected to increase.

The upstream trough will dig SE across the mid and deep south while
the lead clipper shortwave dives across the region this afternoon
into the evening hours. Scattered showers have developed W of the
local area this afternoon in response to the upper level forcing.
These showers are expected to gradually move E through tonight,
reaching the I-95 corridor this evening before lifting across the
coastal plain in the late evening, eventually exiting overnight.
PoPs increase to 60-80% this evening into tonight with a break in
the rain possible overnight before more showers move in from the S.
Initial QPF will be light through tonight, on the order of a tenth
to a quarter of an inch (locally higher totals possible), with the
highest totals across the W half of the area. Lows tonight in the
upper 40s inland to mid 50s SE coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with
  widespread showers Friday. Locally heavy rain is possible
  Friday.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible Friday across
  southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

- Below normal temperatures and cloudy skies continue through Saturday.

An upper level trough moves into the area Fri, turning into an upper
level low as it lingers over the region through the weekend. Given
the upper level low overhead, mostly cloudy skies are expected from
Fri through Sun morning along with unsettled weather and below
normal temps. Widespread showers are expected on Fri with 80-90%
PoPs Fri afternoon for most. However, this setup favors off and on
rounds of showers and storms as opposed to a steady rain for most.
That being said, a more steady rain is possible across the N half of
the area given a more stable airmass. The upper level low centers
over the area on Sat, allowing for continued PoPs through Sat night
(20-50% PoPs Sat). However, light rain/drizzle is favored on Sat
given the lack of instability. Light showers/drizzle taper off along
the coast Sun. Widespread rainfall totals of 0.75-1.25" are expected
for most of the area through the weekend with locally higher totals
possible. The heaviest rain will likely fall on the NW side of the
sfc low where showers may become mostly stationary for several
hours. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
across the entire FA Fri with a few instances of flash flooding
possible (mainly for urban areas) given the saturated soil from the
previous storm system.

Additionally, mid-level lapse rates become locally steep Fri into
Sat as the upper level low moves in with mid-level lapse rates
around 7C possible. Meanwhile, low level moisture increases Fri with
dew points rising into the mid-upper 50s, resulting in modest CAPE
across SE VA/NE NC. Given the modest CAPE, locally steep mid-level
lapse rates, and 0-6km shear of around 40-50 kt (potentially
higher), SPC has maintained SE VA and NE NC under a marginal (level
1/5) risk for severe storms Fri. Severe hail and/or wind is possible
with stronger storms. Additionally, cannot completely rule out a few
rotating storms with a 2% tornado chance across SW portions of
Bertie, NC. However, with dew points less than 60F, the tornado
threat is very limited. The main limiting factors are widespread
convection and low dewpoints/CAPE. Given the lapse rates and
favorable time of year for hail, would not be surprised to get at
least small hail out of several storms Fri. A surface low underneath
the upper level low moves NE of the local area on Sat, resulting in
lower dew points/CAPE Sat. As such, severe weather is not expected
Sat. Overall, the confidence in the severe threat Friday has
decreased with a more conditional threat apparent.

This weekend will be much cooler than last weekend with highs in the
mid 50s NW to upper 60s SE Fri, upper 40s to lower 50s for most
(higher across the far SE) Sat, and upper 50s NE to mid 60s W Sun.
Sat could be nearly 40 degrees cooler than last Sat!

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A warmup is expected early next week with dry weather returning.

A warmup is expected Mon and Tue as a ridge briefly builds over the
area before sliding offshore. Temps warm into the mid-upper 70s Mon
and upper 60s to mid 70s Tue. A series of cold fronts push through
Tue afternoon into early Wed with cooler temps arriving by midweek.
Cannot rule out an isolated shower both Mon afternoon/evening and
Tue afternoon across the Eastern Shore and coast. However,
confidence is low. Additionally, breezy W winds are expected Tue
afternoon with winds gusting to 20-30 mph. Temps cool by mid week
with highs in the upper 50s NE to mid-upper 60s S Wed and 60s Thu.
Lows back into the upper 30s (locally mid 30s) are possible Wed
night, however, confidence is low at this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

Clouds continue to gradually increase ahead of an approaching
system from the Ohio Valley later this afternoon into this
evening. Expect CIGs to slowly lower tonight with MVFR CIGs
reaching RIC by ~2z Fri, SBY/PHF by ~6z Fri, ORF by ~8z Fri,
and ECG by ~12z Fri. IFR/LIFR CIGs are eventually expected as
well inland and may reach RIC by ~8z Fri and PHF/SBY by ~11-12z
Fri. Confidence is low in IFR CIGs reaching ORF/ECG, but they
are possible, mainly at ORF. CIGs improve to MVFR at all
terminals except SBY by Fri afternoon, however, RIC may end up
close to the IFR/MVFR line. Showers will also overspread the
area from late this afternoon into tonight from W to E. All of
the terminals should remain dry through 22-00z, but cannot rule
out a few light showers at RIC before 00z Fri. Shower chances
increase Fri to 90-95% with rounds of showers expected through
the day and into Friday evening. Some thunder is also possible
Fri afternoon across all the terminals (highest confidence
across ORF/ECG), however, given that this would be at the end of
the 18z taf period, have held off on any thunder mention for
now. Otherwise, SE winds remain 10-12 kt with a few gusts up to
20 kt this afternoon. Winds become light overnight before
becoming E 5-10 kt Fri. The strongest winds Fri are expected to
be at SBY where 10-15 kt winds with gusts up to 20 kt are
possible.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely to continue into at
least Saturday as the upper level low lingers across the area
through this weekend, allowing for unsettled weather and
occasional showers to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Thursday...

- A period of elevated SE winds is expected this evening into
  early Friday ahead of the next cold front, with marginal SCA
  conditions in the Chesapeake Bay.

- SCAs are in effect Friday north of Parramore Island due to
  building seas.

- SCAs are possible Saturday through early Sunday morning
  behind a cold front.

High pressure is centered off the New England coast this aftn.
Meanwhile, low pressure is developing over the Ohio Valley. The
wind is primarily ESE 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt. Seas are
~3ft, with waves in the Ches. Bay approximately 2-3ft. The
pressure gradient is expected to tighten across the Ches. Bay
late this aftn and evening as an initial impulse approaches from
the W ahead of the developing low. SCAs remain in effect for
the Ches. Bay late this aftn and evening for an ESE wind
increasing to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt, with 2-3ft waves.
The wind is expected to diminish to 10-15kt later tonight into
early Friday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes to some
extent. A modest increase in an easterly wind is expected
(especially Ches. Bay and northern ocean) later Friday morning
into the aftn as the gradient tightens again ahead of the
approaching system. Conditions will be marginal for the Ches.
Bay. However, seas are expected to build due to persistent
onshore flow N of Parramore Is. Therefore, SCAs have been issued
N of Parramore Is. for seas 4- 7ft beginning 14z/10AM Friday
through at least Saturday.

Low pressure pushes off the coast Friday night into Saturday.
The wind gradually becomes northerly Friday night, and then
increases to 15-20kt Saturday into Saturday night (strongest
Ches. Bay and ocean). SCAs will eventually be need for the Ches.
Bay and the remainder of the ocean zones (primarily for seas),
which should remain elevated into Sunday. High pressure builds
in from the W Sunday and passes across the region Monday.
Another cold front potentially moves across the coast by
Tuesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 6 PM EDT Saturday
     for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ