045
FXUS61 KAKQ 220435
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1235 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front drops south of the area through the evening. A
return to seasonable temperatures and humidity is expected
Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures and humidity again on
the rise by Friday and the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 715 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers this evening should be confined along and S
  of I-64.

- Temperatures cooler tonight behind a cold front, with lowering
  humidity.

Surface analysis places a front across northern NC this
evening. Winds have shifted to the northeast in its wake, but
the drier air has yet to filter in. Dew points across the area
are mostly in the 70s with some mid and upper 60s noted across
the north. Radar shows some showers in the Piedmont, drifting
SSE. Latest guidance keeps this activity into the first half of
the evening but think coverage and intensity of the showers will
fall off quickly with the loss of heating. The front will move
well south of the area tonight and high pressure will build in
behind it. The cooler and drier airmass will finally arrive from
north to south tonight, and forecast lows across the area are
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Dry and seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday with comfortable
  late- July humidity levels.

The front will have made it south of our area on Tuesday, and with
the drier airmass filtering in as high pressure continues to build
across the region, rain chances are forecast to be 10% or less.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies across the southern half of our
forecast area will gradually start to clear out by the Tuesday
afternoon. A gusty NE wind is possible along the VA and NC coasts
Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens some with a weak low to
our S and the high to the N. Low temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 60s NW to the upper 60s to lower 70s SE. With
mostly clear skies and light winds forecast for the inland land
areas on Tuesday night, some radiational cooling is possible, so
low temperatures could be a few degrees lower than currently
forecast. Comfortable temperatures and dew points will linger
into Wednesday, with the dry airmass in place continuing to
promote rain-free conditions and mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 318 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- A gradual warming trend starts Thursday, with hot and humid
  conditions again returning by the end of the week and
  weekend, along with low-end chances for afternoon and evening
  storms.

The drier airmass will remain across the area through Thursday,
keeping rain chances and lower humidity in the forecast through
then. Temperatures will start to rebound back to above normal by
Thursday as upper ridging starts to build across the area.
Rebounding temperatures will happen in conjunction with high
pressure developing off the SE coast which will bring increasing low-
level moisture and humidity back to the area. Heat Advisories could
be required as soon as Friday, but as of right now look to not be
needed until Saturday if the forecast holds. With increased
atmospheric moisture (PW values between 1.5-2.0") and strong daytime
heating, daily low-end rain chances will return to the forecast this
weekend. Additionally, with a large ridge setting up shop over the
central CONUS by Sunday into early next week, we will also need to
keep an eye on upstream convection with the flow aloft becoming
NW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1235 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions acros area terminals to begin the 06z TAF period
are forecast to prevail through the 06z TAF period. Well-
advertised sfc cold front is now south of the local area, with
winds remaining NE ~5 kt. NE winds 5-10 kt resume after
sunrise, increasing to ~10 kt through the afternoon, possibly
10-15 kt with gust up to 20 kt for ORF and ECG, closer to
developing weak low pressure to the south. Potential for a brief
shower at SBY early to mid afternoon along developing seabreeze
boundary, but chances remain low enough to hold out of the
terminal forecast for now.

Outlook: Mainly dry conditions persist from Tue night through
Thursday, but there could be patchy ground fog and/or low
stratus with localized flight restrictions early each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through at least
  mid week with onshore flow.

A backdoor cold front has dropped through much of the area and was
near the VA/NC border as of early afternoon sfc analysis. Latest obs
indicate NNE winds at 5-10kt across all local waters. Waves are ~1ft
and seas are 2-3ft. Later this evening, winds become easterly at 5-
10kt. Early tomorrow morning, winds turn back to the NE, increasing
to 10-15kt over southern waters as the pressure gradient tightens
slightly between building high pressure and the front to the south.
This pattern will continue through Tues and into Wed. The onshore
flow will allow seas to build to 3-4ft S of Cape Charles on Tues,
then returning to 2-3ft Wed as the flow lightens up. Waves will be 1-
2ft.

Benign conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the
week with sfc high pressure in control. Easterly winds on Wed will
be 10-15kt with highest winds in the lower ches bay. Winds turn to
the SE by Thurs evening.

Rip Currents: A low risk of rip currents today, with a moderate
risk forecast for the southern beaches Tue-Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...RHR/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...AC