587
FXUS61 KAKQ 262339
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
639 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes offshore through this evening. Cool high
pressure then builds over the region tonight through midweek.
Widespread rain is expected by Thanksgiving Day through early
Thanksgiving evening, as low pressure moves over the region.
Much colder weather arrives behind that system for this weekend
into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 635 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Clearing skies with cold and dry weather expected tonight.

The surface cold front is now well offshore with much drier air
filtering into the region from the NW. Dew points have fallen
into the 20s and low 30s across the western half of the area
with clearing skies noted on satellite imagery. Overnight,
skies will be mostly clear allowing temps to cool into the
lower 30s for the Piedmont, mid 30s inland, and upper 30s near
the coastline.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Wet Thanksgiving with rainfall totals between 0.25-0.75"
  throughout the day.

With dominating high pressure, tomorrow will be dry and start off as
mostly clear. Clouds will begin building in the afternoon as the
next low pressure which brings higher rain chances moves this way.
Temps will be in the mid to upper 50s, staying cooler from the cloud
cover.

Low pressure originating in the deep south will move northeasterly
into the area Thursday bringing rain chances all day as it moves
across the area. PoPs remain highest over the northern and central
counties and Eastern Shore around 70-90% between Thurs morning and
Thurs evening. Overnight, the low pressure will move offshore
allowing SE VA/NE NC have PoPs 45-50%. QPFs are expected to range
between 0.25-0.75" with the Eastern Shore and SE VA/NE NC with the
highest amounts. Temps will range from the lower 60s towards the
Piedmont to upper 60s towards the coastline with lows similar to Wed
night in the lower 30s towards the Piedmont and upper 30s towards
the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages...

- Much colder temperatures move in Friday through this weekend
  and then lingers for much of next week.

- Wind chills in the teens and 20s are expected each night
  through the forecast period.

A strong cold front clears the area to begin the forecast
period on Friday. A potent mid-level disturbance will traverse
the Ohio Valley into New England Friday and Friday night,
allowing a deep east coast trough to take hold over the region
late this week and through much of next week. Thicknesses hold
up for much of the day on Friday, making Friday the mildest day
of the period. Thereafter, thicknesses crash Friday night and
remain well below seasonal normal through the middle of next
week. Mainly cold, dry weather is forecast for Friday night
through the middle of next week, though a few flurries are
possible on Sunday as some weak shortwave energy embedded in
the mean east coast trough rotates through the region. Daily
highs in the 40s are expected Sat-Wed, with highs in the upper
30s possible Monday across the northern half of the area as a
reinforcing shot of cold arctic air (cA) drops into the region.
While this type of airmass won`t break any records, it will
certainly get folks into the holiday mood. However, likely more
impactful will be the early morning lows. Widespread lows in the
20s to around 30 are expected Fri night and Sat night, with
early morning lows in the mid-upper teens to lower 20s expected
away from the immediate coast on both Sun and Monday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 635 PM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z TAF period. Winds are
generally light and variable this evening but are expected to
increase to ENE 5-10 kt for the coastal terminals (SBY, ORF,
ECG) tonight. Winds will swing around to SE Wednesday as high
pressure to the north translates offshore. CIGs will gradually
lower through the day but should remain above MVFR thresholds
through the 00z TAF period.

Outlook: The next frontal passage Thursday will potentially bring
degraded flight categories for the Thanksgiving day. VFR conditions
should return Friday into the weekend as dry, high pressure
returns.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions through Thursday afternoon.

- A stronger frontal system expected to impact the region  Thursday
and Friday leading to the potential for a prolonged  period of
elevated winds/seas.

- Multiple front possible next week. Could bring more SCA conditions
across all waters.

Afternoon surface analysis shows winds beginning to shift from the
west to northwest as a weak cold front moves across region. Winds
have calmed down across the waters since this morning with sustained
winds between 5-10 kt with gusts upwards of 15 kts. Waves heights
are between 1-3 ft across the bay and 3-4 across the open ocean. The
chance of an isolated shower dwindles this afternoon and tonight as
the showers continue to propagate off the coast. The benign marine
conditions will last through tonight and tomorrow as a high pressure
moves over the area. There will be a subtle wind shift Wednesday as
the high pressure moves directly over the region. Winds will shift
from the northwest to the southeast and be sustained between 5-10 kt
with gusts upwards of 15 kt. By Thursday winds will gradually
increase through the day nearing SCA criteria with gusts upwards of
20 kt. A strong cold front will then push through the region late
Thursday bringing SCA criteria across all waters with winds between
20 - 25 kt and gusts close to 30 kt. Once this front moves across
the region latest model guidance continues to show persistent
northwest flow across all waters potentially bringing SCA criteria
throughout the weekend. Seas will build late Thursday bringing 3-4
ft waves across the bay and 4-5 ft across the open ocean. Seas are
expected to then decrease by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...KMC/RHR
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...HET