229
FXUS61 KAKQ 190842
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain ends this morning as low pressure moves off the coast, with
a trailing cold front pushing south into the Carolinas this
afternoon. Mainly dry conditions prevail later today through
early Friday. Another low pressure system will bring chances
for rain Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Light rain comes to an end shortly after daybreak, remaining
  mild today.

Low pressure, from WV into central VA this morning, is bringing
mainly light rain showers to the local area. Aloft, a shortwave
is currently just to the W of the sfc feature, and will move
E-SE, pushing offshore after ~12Z. Rainfall amounts since last
evening have mostly been between 0.05 and 0.20" across VA and MD
zones, and less across far SE VA and NE NC so certainly not
much help to ongoing dry conditions across the local area.
Expect to see additional rainfall amounts up to a 0.10-0.25" at
most through the next few hrs (mainly closer to the coast) as
the back edge of the steadier rain is already E of I-85/I-95.
Temperatures are mainly in the 40s, but will likely drop into
the upper 30s across the NW through 12Z.

There may be a few lingering showers at the coast through about
14Z/9AM, but high pressure over the Great Lakes will gradually
build into New England, and ridge south into the local area.
There appears to be a lot of lingering low level moisture,
especially on the eastern shore, so even after the rain comes to
and end, expect a mostly cloudy sky to persist there. Expect to
see at least partial sunshine elsewhere. Highs today will show a
large gradient, between the low-mid 50s on the eastern shore,
with upper 60s across interior NE NC and south central VA.
Coastal portions of SE VA and NE NC will tend to warm quickly
with WSW winds this morning, but then drop during the aftn as
the NNE winds increase. For tonight, as the sfc high becomes
centered across the St Lawrence Valley and New England, low
level moisture is forecast to linger or even increase such that
low stratus on the eastern shore could spread south into Hampton
Roads and NE NC, or as the NAM suggests, the entire CWA. Will
not completely go with the NAM solution, but do expect a mostly
cloudy sky overnight with lows in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry, but cool and mostly cloudy Thursday.

- Warmer Friday, with low end rain chances.

Another weak area of low pressure across the southern Plains,
spreads east into the TN and lower OH Valley late Thursday into
Friday morning. Thursday looks dry, but with high pressure off
to our NE, onshore flow and a weak CAD setup looks probable.
Have undercut NBM high temperatures, blending in the cooler
MAV/MET numbers which leads to highs Thursday only in the low-
mid 50s N to the upper 50s S. The system continues to track ENE
on Friday, which will allow another weak front to move
northward across the area. This may bring small chances for
showers Friday into Friday night, mainly inland and north, but
the rainfall should be light. Highs Friday trend warmer, mainly
into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Chances for rain showers Friday night/Saturday, then mainly
  dry Sunday through Tuesday.

A weak frontal boundary is expected to move through the area
Saturday, pushing a cold front back south either Sat aftn or Sat
night. Will have rain chances continue, but it looks fairly
warm at this time, with 70s in the south and 60s across the
north. High pressure builds across the area Sunday through
Monday night, leading to dry weather and temperatures near to a
little above normal. No appreciable chances for below freezing
temperatures through the middle of next week at least.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

Rain moving across the area is bringing localized MVFR VSBYs,
but most places are still VFR. Winds are generally light from
the S. Most areas will have the end by 12Z, though a few light
showers may persist along the coast until ~13Z. Winds shift to
the NW between 12-16Z, and become elevated from the NNE near the
coast this aftn (10-15 kt). Partly cloudy skies are expected
today, the exception being the eastern shore where low stratus
is likely to develop by later in the morning and continuing this
aftn into tonight (may even see some IFR CIGs this aftn at
SBY). By tonight, some of the guidance spreads the low stratus
southward to Hampton Roads and NE NC (but there is a lot of
model spread). For now, have started to bring MVFR CIGs to
PHF/ORF/ECG, but left RIC VFR.

Outlook: At least morning flight restrictions are possible
Thursday given onshore flow and low level moisture, but would
expect improvement later in the day. The next chance for light
rain arrives Friday into Saturday with the next system, which
could lead to additional flight restrictions. At this time,
Sunday looks dry and VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for a
  brief period of SCA conditions expected this afternoon and
  early tonight behind a weak front.

- Marginal SCA conditions possible in the wake of another cold
  front Saturday.

High pressure shifted offshore yesterday afternoon, and an area of
low pressure has gradually moved towards the area and is currently
centered just NW of our area across West Virginia. Seas are
currently around 2 ft, with waves generally measuring around 1 ft. A
warm front lifted across the local area earlier tonight and winds
shifted to the SW in the wake of this boundary. Marine observation
platforms are measuring gentle to moderate winds early this morning.
Later today, a back door cold front will push through the coastal
waters, quickly shifting winds to the north. With some CAA expected
behind the front, there is a short window that the Bay will likely
see gusts between 18-22 kts this afternoon into early tonight. Have
decided to issue a short SCA from 18z-03z for the middle Bay
(through 06z for lower Bay) to capture these elevated winds.
Thereafter, benign marine conditions will return and remain through
the end of the week. A cold front is progged to move across the area
Friday night into Saturday, which could bring a brief period of SCA
conditions to the local waters, though CAA looks to be on the weaker
side so this would likely be a marginal event. Have kept the wind
forecast generally sub-SCA through the weekend and into early next
week, but will continue to monitor this timeframe and adjust the
forecast as necessary. Seas will remain in the 2-3 ft range through
the end of the week, while waves will be in the 1-2 ft range. Behind
the front this weekend, seas are forecast to build to 2-4 ft, with
waves in the Bay building to around 2 ft (highest at the mouth of
the Bay).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     this evening for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MRD
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AC/NB