367
FXUS61 KAKQ 020553
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
153 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures expected behind a seasonally strong cold
front. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal
temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 855 EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler, drier air filters in tonight with below average
  temperatures.

- A few light rain showers are possible across southern VA and
  NE NC.

A rather thick low cloud deck remains over the area this
evening, per late-day visible and nighttime satellite imagery.
Despite the area being in the wake of a cold front, a rather
moist airmass is still in place (PWATs 1.5-2.1", highest S) as
NE onshore flow persists. Still, drier air is slowly filtering
in and should eventually reinforce over the forecast area this
weekend. High pressure currently centered over the western Great
Lakes region also continues to build in behind the front. The
resultant pressure gradient is leading to gusty winds along the
coast, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph this evening. Temps
are also on the cooler side for this time of year...in the upper
60 N/NW to mid 70s S/SE. Radar also shows some very light rain
or drizzle, but this is not widespread according to the local
observational sites.

Overnight, cloud cover will begin to scatter out from N to S.
Temperatures will drop into the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s,
making for quite a comfortable start to August. A few lower 60s
are possible across the NW, especially if skies can clear some.
Isolated-scattered showers remain possible in SE VA/NE NC, but
will likely be lighter in nature. Very limited instability and
cooler temps will limit the threat for thunder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler, below average temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Decreasing rain chances this weekend as high pressure builds into
  the area.

The front will have dropped south of our area by Saturday morning,
and a drier, cooler airmass will be working its way from N to S as
high pressure continues to build into the region. The atmosphere
will still have some moisture in the lower to mid levels in SE VA/NE
NC and increased flow. This combination will likely keep showers in
the forecast in this area on Saturday before the bulk of the drier
air makes it to that area. Convection will be very limited as all of
the meager instability available will be washed out by mid-morning.
High pressure will slide further east and tap into the cooler
Canadian air. This airmass will not get overly modified, which will
continue to bring lower humidity and temperatures to the region.
High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will only reach around
80F into the lower 80s. Dew points will gradually decrease into the
lower to mid 60s by tomorrow afternoon and remain there through
Sunday, making for a very pleasant early August weekend temperature-
wise. Gusty NE winds will continue through Sunday night, especially
for coastal areas. Gusts could reach 25-30 mph, with inland gusts
around 15-20 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 313 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler below average to seasonable temperatures outlooked through
  late week.

- Mostly dry conditions with returning moisture and increasing
  rain chances by mid week.

The expansive high will continue to slowly slide eastward and pump
in a comfortable airmass, with dew points in the 60s expected
through Monday night. By Tuesday, the high will start to shift
offshore, which will lead to a more modified airmass. Increasing
moisture is expected by Tuesday as an upper trough that will extend
from the Great Lakes through the SE US brings in deeper atmospheric
moisture to the region from the Gulf. At the same time, guidance is
suggesting that a weak area of low pressure could develop off the
Carolina coast along the stalled frontal boundary. This could
enhance the moisture moving into our area. As the trough swings
through our area Wednesday through Thursday, increased rain and
thunder chances are possible. Have maintained chance PoPs for now.
Temperatures will remain at or below the climatological norm for
early August, with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the
lower to mid 60s Monday then increasing to the mid-upper 60s Tuesday
through Thursday (lower 70s in areas along the coast).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Saturday...

MVFR flight restrictions continue at most terminals, although
conditions are improving for the northern terminals. As the front
moves further south, CIGs will continue to rise. Currently, RIC and
SBY have cleared to VFR conditions with BKN/OVC mid to high clouds.
ECG/PHF/ORF continue to have MVFR restrictions through this morning.
CIGs should rise to low-end VFR around 12-13z/02 for PHF and ORF,
and 16z for ECG. SCT/BKN clouds will continue for most of the TAF
period, although SBY has the highest chance of clearing. Winds will
remain out of the NE at 10-15 kt with the coastal terminals seeing
gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR prevails Saturday night into early
next week as drier air filters in behind the cold front, but NE
winds remain elevated along the coast into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...

- Small Crafts Advisories in effect through much of the weekend.

- Strong N to S longshore current tomorrow across all beaches.

Afternoon weather analysis shows two high pressures. The first one
located across the Midwest and the second one located off the coast
of Florida. The pressure gradient from these two systems have begun
to tighten allowing winds to pick up behind the passing cold front.
Winds this afternoon are out of the NNE between 15 to 20 kt with
gusts upwards of 25kt. These winds will continue to increase through
the afternoon and into the evening as the cooler and drier airmass
moves in from the high pressure system to the north. There could be
brief periods of 30kt gusts and perhaps a few isolated 35kt gusts.
These potential 35kt gusts are expected to remain brief and short
lived. A high end SCA is in place till Sunday morning. However, some
of these locations may need to be extended through Sunday evening as
winds will potentially remain elevated.

Waves this afternoon are already between 2 to 3 ft across the bay
and 4 to 6 ft north of the Virginia/ North Carolina border while to
the south waves are between 3 to 4ft. These waves will continue to
increase to 3 to 5 ft across the bay and 5 to 7 potentially even 8
ft waves across the ocean this evening. These seas will remain
elevated through Saturday evening before slowly diminishing. SCA
conditions likely persist for the lower Bay, lower James, Currituck
sound, and coastal waters well into Sunday with NE winds 15-20kt
lingering, and seas only slowly subsiding (forecast to remain above
5 ft into Monday).

A Moderate Rip Current risk continues to remain in effect for all
but the NC beaches today. Continues to a high risk for the weekend,
with a strong longshore current, short period, choppy seas, and
nearshore seas of 4-5 ft N and 6-7 S with strong NE winds. It may
technically be somewhat marginal for northern beaches given the
wind/wave direction not as close to shore normal as the southern
areas, so will word accordingly in the SRF.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 900 PM EDT Friday...

Tidal anomalies have risen to 1-1.75 ft above normal due to the
elevated NE wind, elevated seas, and flood tide at the mouth of
the bay. Expect anomalies to continue to rise over the next
24-36 hours as NE winds persist and seas build a bit more across
the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Also, the CBOFS is forecasting
successive flood tides with no ebbing through Saturday evening.
While nothing more than nuisance tidal flooding is expected
through the high tide cycle tonight/Sat AM...some sites could
see minor tidal flooding during the high tide Saturday
aftn/evening. The highest chc of minor flooding is from
Lewisetta to Tappahannock along the tidal Potomac/Rappahannock
Rivers as well as the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore.
Statements and/or advisories may be needed for Sat aftn/evening.
Water levels are forecast to level off/fall a bit later this
weekend as NE winds/seas subside a bit, though nuisance
flooding will be possible Sunday aftn/evening with the higher of
the two astronomical tides.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/KMC
NEAR TERM...SW/NB
SHORT TERM...KMC/NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...KMC/SW
MARINE...HET/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...