253
FXUS61 KAKQ 080106
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
906 PM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves into the region this afternoon, before lifting
back north on Sunday. Afternoon and evening showers and storms are
expected both today and Sunday, with severe weather possible. Drier
weather returns on Monday, with increasing storm chances again on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 905 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Showers and storms diminishing in coverage this evening.
  Another round of showers and storms will be possible late
  tonight into Sunday morning.

- Areas of low stratus and patchy fog developing over the
  peninsulas and eastern shore toward Sunday morning.

Latest surface analysis reveals a cold front dropping into the
area early this evening. As of this writing the front was hung
up along the New England/northern mid-Atlantic coast, draped
across the Delmarva and extending NE to SW across central VA
into S WV. Showers/storms have tapered off largely as expected
across much of the area (with the exception of coastal NE NC),
owing to the weakening deep layer shear and turned over storm
environment over much of the area. However, CAMs remain in
decent agreement that showers and perhaps a few storms refire
later tonight after 08-10z (4a-6a), as another shortwave lifts
SW to NE across the area in the fast zonal flow aloft. A weak
attendant sfc low will develop and lift E-NE along the front,
and will serve to lift the front back north as a warm front.
Farther northeast, light onshore winds, partial clearing and
moist low-levels will likely allow for some low stratus and
patchy fog to develop toward sunrise on the eastern shore, VA
Peninsulas and the northern neck. Overnight lows mainly in the
mid 60s to around 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again Sunday
  as a frontal boundary lingers across the region.

- Severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts being the
  main threat. A brief tornado or two is possible near the warm
  front.

The front continues to move north on Sunday before stalling as
secondary low pressure develops and tracks from W-E along it. The
position of the front Sunday afternoon will dictate where the
highest severe threat is, as another robust shortwave aloft is
progged to quickly cross the region during the afternoon-evening.
Given the multiple rounds of MCVs moving through the area on Sun,
confidence in timing of the greatest severe threat is lower than
normal. As of the 12z CAMs, there appears to be at least two
timeframes were severe storms are more likely. One is Sun morning
between ~8-11 AM with the first MCV with another round possible
between 2-10 PM. Concern is increasing for severe Sun morning into
Sun afternoon from central VA to the Northern Neck with several CAMs
showing UH tracks with the morning round of convection as well as
surface based instability. As such, have increased PoPs to 60-75%
Sun morning. Will note that the greatest chance for a tornado is
along the warm front/stationary front where surface winds will
become locally more backed. HREF 0-1km SRH of >100 m2/s2 and 0-3km
SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 was noted beginning Sun morning. The greater
SRH shifts NE with time towards the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore
by the afternoon. Meanwhile, SBCAPE >1000 J/kg is possible by Sun
morning, increasing to 2000-3000 J/kg south of the warm front by Sun
afternoon. These ingredients combined with 0-6km shear of 35-50 kt
north of the warm front and mid level lapse rates increasing to 6-
6.5C by the afternoon are concerning. Therefore, per collaboration
with SPC, SPC has added a 5% chance for a tornado or two along the
warm front from central VA to the Northern Neck with a 2% tornado
chance elsewhere. Otherwise, SPC has a SLIGHT (2/5) chance for
severe storms across the entire FA with the main threat being
damaging winds. Isolated large hail is also possible,
particularly in any supercells that may develop.

Severe storms are not the only threat. Given a theta-e nose across
the region, PWs around 2", storm motions around 25kt, and storms
potentially training along the warm front, a flash flooding threat
also develops. 12 HREF showed a 10% chance for 3" of rain in 3 hours
across central VA to the Northern Neck beginning Sun morning and
continuing through the afternoon with 24 hr PMM rainfall totals of 2-
3" across this region (centered over Richmond). As such (and in
collaboration with WPC), WPC has upgraded most of our VA counties to
a SLIGHT (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall Sun with a MARGINAL (1/4)
risk elsewhere. This region may need to be refined once the
position of the warm front becomes more clear. Consideration was
given towards a potential Flood Watch from central VA to the
Northern Neck (including the Richmond Metro). However, given the
uncertainty in the exact position of the warm front and per
coordination with neighboring offices, have opted to hold off
and let the overnight shift reevaluate with the 00z model
guidance. Showers/storms taper off from W to E Sun evening into
Sun night. Highs Sun in the mid- upper 70s N of the warm front
and low-mid 80s (potentially upper 80s in spots) S of the warm
front are expected. Lows Sun night in the mid-upper 60s are
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Scattered to numerous storms are possible Tuesday with a few strong
  storms possible.

- Drier weather arrives midweek with an unsettled pattern
  developing Friday into the weekend.

Aloft, a trough weakens as it moves towards the region on Tue,
eventually moving offshore on Wed. Zonal flow with weak ridging
likely develops from mid to late week with a larger ridge developing
across the central CONUS next weekend. At the surface, a cold front
pushes across the region Tue, allowing for scattered to numerous
afternoon/evening storms to develop across the region. Given ample
instability and shear and the favorable location of the trough,
strong to severe storms are possible. High pressure builds in Wed
into Thu, allowing for mostly dry weather. However, a stationary
front and/or weak surface low along the coast may allow for a few
isolated showers/storms across SE VA/NE NC on Wed afternoon. Mainly
diurnal afternoon/evening PoPs increase Sat. Temps will be near
normal Tue, trending above normal later in the week with highs in
the lower 90s possible Thu and Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Saturday...

A cold front continues to slowly drop into the region this
evening. Scattered showers and storms which developed ahead of
the front earlier in the day have diminished in areal coverage
to begin the 00z TAF period. Another round of scattered showers
and storms look to develop and move into the area late tonight
into Sun morning. Another round of scattered storms then looks
to follow for Sun afternoon, and have added mention in the
terminal forecast at RIC/ORF/ECG for Sunday afternoon. CIGs
lower to MVFR by 6-8z, eventually lowering to IFR after 10-12z.
A mixture of MVFR/IFR CIGs is likely through Sun afternoon.

Outlook: Degraded flying conditions linger tomorrow night into
Mon morning with improving conditions expected Mon. Generally
dry conditions are expected Mon with additional scattered
showers and storms moving through on Tue with flight restrictions
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 215 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue
through the weekend and into early next week.

- Potential for scattered to widespread strong thunderstorms this
afternoon into this evening and again on Sunday.

Weak low pressure remains situated off the NJ coast this afternoon
and a nearly stationary front is draped northwest of the local
waters. Winds this afternoon are generally out of the S or SW and
range from 5 to 10 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 3 feet, and
waves in the Chesapeake Bay generally around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at
the mouth).

Light flow onshore flow develops late this afternoon into the
evening at 5-10 kt. A prefrontal trough will help to initiate
showers and storms over inland areas this afternoon, moving toward
the coast this evening. A few of these could be locally strong to
severe with gusts 35-50 kt possible. The southern Chesapeake Bay and
coastal waters have somewhat higher chances strong storms this
evening vs points to the north. Sub-SCA conditions continue tonight
(outside of any thunderstorm influences). Onshore flow develops
again by Sunday afternoon with greater coverage of showers and
storms expected area wide from late afternoon into the early
overnight hours. Strong winds will be the main threat once again on
Sunday. An area of low pressure potentially forms along the front
early next week (late Monday into Tuesday) which could allow the
front to drop south of the waters by mid week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...MAM/RMM
MARINE...AJB/RHR