302
FXUS61 KAKQ 251044
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
644 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of heat and humidity arrives today and
continues into early next week. Daily highs in the mid to upper
90s and heat indices above 105 degrees are expected. Storm
chances also return this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisories have been issued across all of the area except
  the Currituck Beaches for today.

- Slight chance of showers is possible across the north.

Patchy fog across NE NC and far S VA is expected to dissipate
over the next hour or two. Early morning sfc analysis depicted
high pressure off the Southeast coast underneath a large ridge
aloft (594 dam). As such, expect an abrupt increase in heat and
humidity today with temps rising into the mid-upper 90s this
afternoon and dew points back in the 70s (mid 70s E of I-95).
Therefore, heat indices (what the temp will feel like) rise to
105-109F across the area this afternoon. Given these heat
indices, Heat Advisories are now in effect across the entire FA
except the Currituck Beaches (due to a sea breeze keeping temps
locally lower). HREF probs for heat indices of at least 105F
were highest across the Tri-Cities NE to the Lower MD Eastern
Shore (50- 70%). As such, confidence is highest across this area
due to locally higher dew points in the mid to perhaps upper
70s. Confidence is lowest in reaching heat indices of 105F
across the SW Piedmont, however, given the change in airmass
compared to yesterday and expected heat indices of 100-105F
across this area, have opted to include them in the Heat
Advisory.

Otherwise, mainly dry and sunny weather is expected for most of
today with a few isolated showers/storms possible across the
NW/N portions of the FA from the N Piedmont to the Lower MD
Eastern Shore late this afternoon into early tonight. SPC has
the far N portions of the FA under a Marginal risk for severe
storms today with the main threat being damaging winds. However,
the local area is the far southern extent of the risk area and
therefore confidence is quite low in severe weather (PoPs are
only 15-20%). Nevertheless, cannot rule out a few strong to
severe gusts across N portions of the area if a line of storms
develops and makes it to the local area this afternoon/evening.
Lows tonight in the mid- upper 70s are expected with areas
along the coast potentially struggling to drop below 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for interior portions of northeast
  North Carolina for Saturday and Sunday.

- A prolonged period of heat and humidity continues this weekend with
  widespread heat indices of 105 to 110F likely.

- Scattered storms are possible during the afternoon and evening
  on Sat and Sun.

Aloft, a large ridge lingers across the Eastern CONUS this weekend,
retrograding west some by Sun. At the sfc, high pressure remains
centered off the Southeast coast with another area of high pressure
sliding across New England and out to sea. As such, the heat and
humidity is expected to peak this weekend with widespread heat
indices of 105-110F across the area. Confidence is highest in
portions of interior NE NC reaching heat indices of 110F
(potentially higher) both Sat and Sun with lower confidence farther
north in VA. HREF probs for heat indices of at least 110F were 50-
70% across NE NC. As such (and in collaboration with neighboring
offices), an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for Sat and Sun
across portions of NE NC (away from the coast).

A backdoor cold front pushes SW Sat morning. While this will create
a wind shift to NE winds, CAA is lacking. Therefore, other than the
wind shift, minimal temp and dew point changes are expected behind
the front (inland). In fact, the front will likely serve as a focal
point for moisture pooling and allow for upper 70s dew points and
the locally highest heat indices. Meanwhile, temps are still
expected to rise into the mid-upper 90s across inland portions of
the area. This will allow for heat indices to rise to 105-109F
across most inland portions of VA with heat indices potentially at
or above 110F possible across interior NE NC. The region which will
likely see improvement behind the cold front is near/along the coast
and across the Northern Neck to the Lower MD Eastern Shore. Highs in
these areas are only expected to be in the lower 90s due to air
cooling as it blows across the cooler ocean waters.

The front washes out by Sun with highs in the mid-upper 90s SW to
the upper 80s NE. However, dew points will still be quite high in
the mid-upper 70s across the area. Would not even be surprised to
see locally 80F dew points particularly during the late morning and
evenings. As such, heat indices of 105-110F will once again be
possible across VA with heat indices potentially at or above 110F
possible across interior NE NC. Will note that heat indices may rise
to 110F across portions of S/SE VA on Sun. However, confidence in VA
was too low to add them to the Extreme Heat Watch as this time. Lows
both Sat and Sun nights in the mid to upper 70s are expected.

Outside of the heat, scattered storms are possible Sat and Sun with
25-35% PoPs from the Tri-Cities north on Sat and 30-55% PoPs across
the entire FA Sun (highest across the NW portion of the FA). For
now, SPC doesn`t have a severe risk across the area either day.
However, would not be surprised if this changes in the coming days.
In any case, a few strong to severe storms are possible (as is often
the case in the Summer with high heat and humidity) both days.
Finally, will note that there is a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall on Sun across NE portions of the FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- The heat and humidity continues through Wednesday with
  additional heat headlines possible.

- Scattered storms are possible Thursday and Friday.

Aloft, the ridge retrogrades W through midweek with a trough
dropping S into the East Coast by late week. Although the ridge will
slowly be retrograding through early next week, the heat and
humidity will persist through Wed with highs in the mid 90s SW to
upper 80s NE Mon and mid-upper 90s Tue. Meanwhile, heat indices of
105-109F will continue to be possible through Wed with additional
heat headlines likely. However, relief is in sight with a cold front
dropping S across the area by Thu on the leading edge of a strong
area of cool high pressure dropping S out of Canada. This cooler air
mass coincides nicely with the transition in months from July to
August with a strong ensemble signal for much cooler weather (highs
in the mid 80s) arriving by early August as a trough moves into the
East Coast. Otherwise, a few isolated storms are possible Mon
through Wed, but most areas should remain dry. A better chance for
showers/storms arrives with the cold front Thu into Fri as PoPs
increase to 40-60%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Primarily VFR conditions prevail across all terminals for the
12z TAF period. Winds remain light and variable/calm early this
morning with some patchy fog across NE NC and far S VA likely
dissipating over the next hour or two. Clear skies continue this
morning with FEW- SCT CU developing this afternoon across the
area and continuing into the evening. Winds become SW 5-10 kt
later this morning through this afternoon with a bay breeze
potentially impacting ORF late this afternoon into this evening.
Cannot rule out a few isolated showers or storms from the
northern Piedmont to the Lower MD Eastern Shore late this
afternoon into this evening, however confidence is low.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible Sat
and Sun afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through tonight.

- A back door cold front will cross the waters on Saturday.

Early this morning, high pressure remains centered well
offshore. Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure is situated off
the NC coast. Winds are generally out of the south and range
from 5 to 10 knots. Seas are running around 2 feet, and waves in
the Chesapeake Bay around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at the mouth).
Winds will remain southerly and average ~10 knots today into
tonight.

A backdoor cold front moves southward across the Mid Atlantic late
tonight into Saturday, before weakening and becoming diffuse on
Sunday. Winds will shift to the north and eventually east through
the day Saturday before becoming southeast on Sunday. At this time,
wind speeds and wave heights are still expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels through the weekend. Seas remain 2 to 3
feet through the weekend with waves on the Ches Bay of 1 to 2
feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We are at, or just past, the climatologically warmest week of
the year across the local area. So, while no record highs are
expected to be threatened during the upcoming weekend, we do
have a chance of meeting or exceeding record high minimum
temps. We`ve included both for reference.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Fri 7/25 - Sun 7/27

Date    Richmond   Norfolk   Salisbury   Eliz. City

07/25   105/2010   105/2010   100/2010    97/1949
07/26   100/1940   100/1940    98/2012    97/1995
07/27   101/1940   104/1940   102/1940   100/1940


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Fri 7/25 - Sun 7/27

Date    Richmond   Norfolk   Salisbury   Eliz. City

07/25    79/2010    79/2016    79/2001    79/2010
07/26    76/1989    80/2016    79/2001    78/2009
07/27    78/2005    80/2020    75/2023    78/2020

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ021>025.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
     evening for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-
     509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB/JDM
CLIMATE...