095
FXUS61 KAKQ 060130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
930 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks northeast along the Carolina coastal plain
tonight, then pushes offshore Friday morning. A cold front approaches
Friday night and moves into the region Saturday, before lingering
over the area Sunday. This will bring a return to chances of
primarily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
Mainly dry conditions prevail Monday, with unsettled weather
expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 930 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Showers are expected across far southern VA and NE NC through
  Friday morning, with lower chances elsewhere.

At the surface, an low is transiting NE across eastern NC and is
producing widespread stratiform rain. Showers have made it as far
north as south-central/SE VA, but diminished instability has led to
convective activity waning over the past few hours. Upper air
soundings to our south sampled a very moist atmospheric profile,
while the Wallops sounding continued to sample a layer of dry air
between ~900-500 mb. This sharp moisture gradient has resulted in
showers quickly decaying as they hit the dry air, and areas north of
Hampton Roads have remained dry this evening. Surface winds are
generally from the southeast to south across the local area, which
is pulling in high dew points and keeping temperatures relatively
warm. Dew points are in the upper 60s to lower 70s and temperatures
are in the lower to mid 70s, making for a muggier evening.

Stratiform rain will continue to move across south-central/SE VA and
NE NC overnight. Confidence on any further movement northward is
lower due to the drier air still in place. A few heavier embedded
showers are possible, though thunder is looking less likely.
Temperatures will remain warm overnight, falling only into the 60s.
Conditions will start to improve tomorrow morning as the low ejects
off into the western North Atlantic and moves offshore. Rain chances
will diminish after sunrise. While most of the day will be dry, a
few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm may move into the
piedmont region late tomorrow afternoon as a prefrontal trough moves
through the Ohio River Valley region tomorrow afternoon. A Marginal
SVR risk covers the extreme western edge of the CWA, but the bulk of
shower/storm activity is likely to stay W of the CWA. Sky cover will
start to scatter out in the west earlier than in the east, so the
piedmont region is forecast to see highs in the mid 80s while
coastal areas will likely only reach the upper 70s to lower 80s due
to the thick cloud cover expected for a majority of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered/numerous showers/tstms Sat aftn/evening with a cold
  front.

- Remaining unsettled with showers and storms likely Sunday.

A shortwave trough slides across the region late Friday night
into early Saturday given the progressive nature of the mid-
level flow, and this could produce some showers earlier in the
day. However, the primary shortwave and more significant height
falls arrive later in the day with the actual cold front. The
mid level flow increases (500-700mb winds avg 30-40kt). The cold
front is expected to move into the area by aftn, then slowly
sagging south Saturday night. The attendant shortwave aloft
should also support a higher coverage of showers/tstms and PoPs
remain the 50-60% range for most of the local area Saturday
afternoon, sliding to the SE in the evening. With dew points in
the upper 60s to around 70F, instability does look favorable
(especially when combined with decent mid-level flow) for some
strong to severe tstms. The latest Day 3 Outlook places a Slight
Risk across NE NC, with a Marginal for the remainder of the FA
(minus the eastern shore where the risk is less). At this time,
it looks like primarily a wind threat, though mid level lapse
rates may be steep enough for at least a marginal hail threat
as well. The coverage of precip should drop off overnight
Saturday as the cold front sags S. Highs Saturday range from the
lower/mid 80s N to the upper 80s S. Lows Saturday night will
mainly be in the mid 60s to around 70F. For Sunday, the models
remain in good agreement that the front will be stalled across
southern sections of the CWA, with a robust shortwave aloft
passing through the region through the aftn/early evening. SPC`s
Day 4 has a 15% SVR risk for NC, where instability will tend to
be the highest. Either way, there looks to be sufficient forcing
amd lingering moisture to maintain likely PoPs across the entire
area. There will also be the potential for locally heavy
rainfall/localized flooding given PWATs remaining elevated and
with the front nearly parallel to the mid level flow. Highs
Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s N to the mid 80s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry Monday.

- Unsettled conditions return Tuesday.

By Monday, PW anomalies return to near normal with the front
washing out across NC, so PoPs are mainly 20% or less, with the
exception of 20-30% near the Albemarle Sound. Unsettled weather
with showers/tstms are expected to return Tuesday as moisture
increases ahead of another shortwave trough. By the middle of
the week, high pressure and drier conditions potentially return
to the region. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal through the medium range period. Highs Monday are
expected in the upper 80s, and then lower/mid 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday, and mid to upper 80s Thursday. Lows will mainly be
in the 60s to around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 749 PM EDT Thursday...

Light rain is starting to spread northwards across NE NC and south-
central/SE VA this evening. ECG is seeing intermittent MVFR CIGS,
but the rain has been light enough to not effect VIS. Decided to
take mention of thunder out of the ECG TAF as convective activity
has dwindled across the area. The light rain will continue to move
northwards over the next few hours and ORF and PHF likely will
see -SHRA overnight. Confidence was a little lower at RIC for
rainfall, so kept a PROB30 instead of prevailing mention of
-SHRA. CIGS will gradually lower overnight, with MVFR to IFR
CIGS expected at all terminals aside from SBY. These lower CIGS
will linger through the morning, with conditions starting to
improve by the early afternoon. Surface winds will be generally
from the S/SE at 5-10 kts through tonight, then will shift to
the ENE tomorrow morning.

A cold front will approach from the NW Saturday bringing a
50-60% chc of showers/tstms. This front is expected to linger in
vicinity of the region Sunday with a high chc of showers/tstms
continuing. The latest guidance shows the front pushing S of the
region Monday. Showers/storms return Tuesday aftn/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A weak low pressure system develops along the NC coast tonight and
moves offshore.

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the period though winds
may gusts to 15 to 20 kt at times.

With high pressure just offshore south winds have remained
relatively light this afternoon around 5 to 10 kt with a few gusts
near 15 kt. Winds will become more SE tonight and then E and NE
by Friday. A weak area of low pressure will develop along the
NC coast this evening and move offshore Friday. This will
tighten the pressure gradient just enough to cause winds to
become NE for Friday at 10 to 15 kt. Expect a few gusts to near
20 kt over the Bay and coastal waters. In general guidance has
lowered the wind a couple kts for Friday, so it appears
conditions will remain below SCA criteria. Seas will be
generally 2-3 ft in the coastal waters and waves will be 1-2 ft
in the Chesapeake Bay through tonight.

The low tracking off the NC coast is expected to remain weak and
move away quickly by late Fri. Regardless of the weaker storm
system, there should be ab increasing SE/E swell produced by the low
with seas forecast to increase to 3-4 ft by Fri aftn. The forecast
for seas has trended down a bit from yesterday. While winds diminish
to below 10 kt by late Friday evening, 2-4 ft seas may linger
through Fri night (especially N). Prevailing sub-SCA conditions are
expected over the weekend (although aftn/evening tstms are expected
each day which could necessitate SMWs). Winds become S/SW Saturday
ahead of a weak front. The front will push its way south stalling
over southeast VA for Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/NB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...ERI/JAO