445
FXUS61 KAKQ 081718
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1218 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry weather is expected through Saturday. An approaching
cold front brings a good chance of showers areawide later
Sunday into Sunday night. Dry and seasonable weather returns for
the beginning and middle of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 545 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- An isolated shower is possible through the late morning today.

- Gradually clearing skies this afternoon with high temps in the
  70s.

Morning analysis places a cold front just S of the NC/VA
border. The flow has shifted northerly for most of the area in
the wake of the front. While temps remain in the 60s, lower dew
points (in the 50s) are filtering into the area in the front`s
wake. With subtle height falls and relatively moist environment,
there remains a few showers over the area. Weak forcing aloft
favors very isolated coverage through the morning hours. Will
maintain 20% PoPs for most of the area, though this is likely a
tad generous given current radar trends. Lows this morning will
be in the mid- upper 50s, except lower 60s for SE VA and NE NC.

With the drier air filtering in, expecting gradually clearing skies
from N to S this afternoon. Highs will be about 10 degrees cooler
than yesterday, though still mild in the lower-middle 70s. Any
lingering showers depart offshore by the late morning. A reinforcing
cold front is expected to cross the area late tonight and the cold
advection will be stronger behind this one. Winds also become gusty,
especially along the coast, with gusts around 20 mph possible after
midnight. A good deal cooler tonight with lows dropping into the low-
mid 40s (upper 40s/lower 50s SE VA/NE NC coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

- Cooler, but dry, Saturday.

- Shower chances increase later Sunday ahead of a cold front.
  Rain totals generally remain under a half inch.

Much cooler temperatures are forecast Saturday in the wake of the
secondary cold front as cool high pressure builds into the region
from the Great Lakes. Highs range from the upper 50s-lower 60s. Dew
points in the 30s will yield afternoon relative humidities between
25 and 40% so it will definitely feel drier. While fire wx concerns
cannot be ruled out in the afternoon hours, winds will be
diminishing and should preclude any major issues. Lows Saturday
night in the upper 30s inland and low-mid 40s closer to the coast.
Lows could dip lower in the middle 30s as winds turn light, though
this is dependent on the amount of cloud cover.

By Sunday, the high will shift offshore as another cold front
approaches the area from the OH Valley. The first part of the day is
likely to start out dry as the high remains in control. Later in the
day, the front will be nearing our area from the W. As there will be
decent southerly moisture advection ahead of the front, this system
is expected to bring our first chance at widespread precip in quite
some time. The highest coverage is expected overnight Sunday into
early Monday morning. Have likely PoPs for the entire area during
this period, with even categorical PoPs for the eastern half of the
area after midnight. While QPF only averages 0.25-0.5" (even lower
SE), any rain is beneficial at this point. A large contrast in temps
is expected Sunday, with only upper 50s across the wrn/NW Piedmont,
mid 60s in the I-95 corridor, and upper 60s-lower 70s on the Eastern
Shore and in SE VA/NE NC. Milder overnight (in the 50s) with the
rain and southerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Lingering showers along the coast Monday, but dry and mild for
  most.

- Dry/seasonable weather is expected next Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Another chance of rain is possible with a cold front Thursday.

The cold front will be exiting the area Monday and only lingering
showers are forecast along the coast. With zonal flow aloft, highs
Monday rebound back in the 70s. Overnight lows Monday range from the
upper 40s W/NW to low-mid 50s E/SE.

Dry wx generally prevails Tuesday and Wednesday with transient
ridging aloft sliding through the Mid-Atlantic. Highs in the 60s
both days, though Wednesday should be a degree or two cooler than
Tuesday. Lows Tue/Wed night in the 40s. Becoming more uncertain into
Thursday as a deep upper trough dives into the Midwest states from
Canada. Attendant cyclogenesis at the sfc is expected somewhere in
the vicinity of the upper Great Lakes early Thursday, with the low
pressure system expected to eventually drag a cold front through the
area. The upper forcing looks quite favorable so we could end up
seeing some good rain chances from this front. Timing differences
remain among the 08/00z guidance so will mainly use the blended
guidance for PoPs. Once agreement increases, wouldn`t be surprised
if higher PoPs need to introduced. The pattern still looks quite
progressive so rain will tend to not last long. Highs Thursday in
the low-mid 60s with overnight lows in the lower 40s. Drying back
out for next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 18z TAF period. Latest
Satellite shows a batch of higher clouds moving across
southeastern Virginia and northeastern Virginia. These clouds
will remain scattered in nature and continue to move out of the
area later this afternoon. Winds have slowly begun to shift out
of the west northwest around 10 kt (10-15kt across the coastal
terminals). Later tonight and into the early morning hours a
stronger cold front will move across the area and bring gusty
winds (around 20 kt) across the coastal terminals. Sky cover
will remain mostly clear into tonight and tomorrow.


Outlook: Primarily VFR conditions are expected through
Sun. Another frontal system approaches the region Sun, with a
chance for showers Sun afternoon into Mon morning. Degraded
flight conditions are possible during this time.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front approaches tonight into Saturday and SCA have
  been issued for all of our marine waters.

- Multiple fronts cross the region next week, and could bring
  additional SCA conditions across all waters Sunday night
  through early next week.

A weak cold front is dropping S along the coast early this
morning. the wind is mainly N 5-10kt behind the front, but could
briefly increase to 10-15kt across the Ches. Bay and ocean this
morning. Seas are mainly ~2ft with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. The
wind is expected to diminish this aftn and early this evening as
the pressure gradient slackens. However, a strong cold front
will cross the coast late this evening, followed by a decent CAA
surge late tonight into Saturday morning accompanied by
2-4mb/3hr pressure rises. The wind is expected to become N
20-25kt with gust to ~30kt for the ocean and Ches. Bay, and
15-20kt with gusts to ~25kt elsewhere. Seas build to 4-5ft N to
5-6ft S with waves in the Bay building to 3-4ft (3-5ft at the
mouth of the Bay). SCAs remain in effect for the entire marine
area tonight into Saturday.

The wind diminishes and becomes E Saturday night as high
pressure slides across the NJ coast. The wind becomes S 10-15kt
Sunday as high pressure moves offshore, and then becomes SW
10-15kt S to 15- 20kt N Sunday night, before becoming W 10-15kt
Monday. Marginal SCA conditions are possible for the middle
Ches. Bay and northern ocean zones Sunday night. Another cold
front potentially crosses the region Tuesday as high pressure
builds N of the region through midweek. Seas subside to 2-3ft N
to 3-4ft S by Sunday/Monday with 1- 2ft waves in the Bay, and
then potentially build behind the cold front Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM EST Friday...

New daily record highs were set yesterday/Thursday (11/7) at
RIC, ORF, and ECG with the record tied at SBY.

Record highs:

Yesterday (Thursday), 11/7

RIC: 85 (2024)
ORF: 80 (2024)
SBY: 82 (2022 & 2024)
ECG: 83 (2024)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...