212
FXUS61 KAKQ 131942
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through Friday. A warm front
lifts through the region on Saturday before a cold front
crosses the area on Sunday. High pressure briefly returns early
next week before another system potentially impacts the region
on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

- Breezy and dry this afternoon with Increased Fire Danger until 5PM.

Morning clouds have moved out of the region with sunny skies and
gusty WNW winds this afternoon. Surface analysis shows 1024mb high
pressure building into the region from the W and SW with low
pressure off the Canadian Atlantic coast. Compressed gradient
between these features is resulting in one more day of gusty winds
across the area, especially the northern half of the CWA. Downslope
flow and deep mixing of drier air aloft has also allowed RH values
to tank into the 20-30% range this afternoon. After coordination
with neighboring offices and VA Forestry officials, and IFD was
issued from this morning through 5PM for all of our VA counties
(minus the VA Eastern Shore where RH values are a bit higher). Winds
are forecast to drop off quickly this evening with continued clear
skies. Temperatures tonight fall into the low to mid 30s with a few
low 40s near the water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions continue with gradually rising temperatures
  this weekend.

- A cold front approaches from the NW Saturday night, bringing
  chances for light rain across far northern portions of the area.

- The (dry) cold front crosses the area Sunday afternoon.

Dry and seasonable Friday and Saturday with high pressure remaining
in control of the local weather pattern. A warm front moves through
the area Saturday afternoon, shifting winds to the SW. High
temperatures Friday will range from the low 60s inland to the upper
50s closer to the coast (mid 50s Eastern Shore). Overnight lows
Friday night will range from the low 30s to the low 40s. Slightly
warmer on Saturday behind the warm front with southerly flow. Highs
range from the mid 60s to around 70 inland to the upper 50s to low
60s closer to the coast.

A cold front approaches from the NW Saturday night. The best chances
of rain will be over the far northern portions of the forecast area,
particularly the MD Eastern Shore, with little to no rain expected
elsewhere. QPF still appears to meager at best for this event and
continues to trend drier. An increase in cloud cover and southerly
flow ahead of the front will keep temperatures in the 50s for most
of the area (upper 40s MD Eastern Shore) Saturday night. The cold
front crosses the area Sunday, moving offshore by the afternoon.
Sunday will be a warm and breezy day due to downsloping westerly
winds in the wake of the front. High temperatures should be able to
climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s for a good portion of the
forecast area (possibly mid 70s in spots). Depending on how quickly
the drier air moves into the area, Sunday could also see some fire
weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler and drier air returns behind the front.

- Progressive system impacts the region Tuesday into Tuesday
  night.

Sunday night likely stays somewhat breezy in the post-frontal CAA
regime. Low temps fall into the upper 30s to low 40s overnight.
Continued dry and seasonal on Monday with westerly/downslope winds
lingering through the afternoon and minimum RH falling into the 20-
30% range. There may be additional fire weather concerns again on
Monday but winds may be limiting factor to a greater or more
widespread threat. High temps Monday in the 50s to low 60s with
overnight lows in the 30s as winds decouple.

Guidance has come into a bit better agreement regarding a fast-
moving system impacting the area Tuesday or Tuesday night. Will
stick with the blended guidance showing chance to slight chance PoPs
across the entire area but it is not looking like a scenario where
we get a lot of beneficial QPF. Clouds and showers will keep Tuesday
on the cool side with highs in the 50s for most with low 60s into
NC. Wednesday and Thursday look seasonable with afternoon temps in
50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/13 TAF period. Skies have
cleared out considerably vs this morning with just a few
lingering clouds near ECG. Winds WNW 10-15 kt with gusts up to
20-25 kt this afternoon across most terminals with higher winds
expected across the Eastern Shore (15-20 kt with gusts up to
25-30 kt at SBY). Winds lighten up this evening into tonight
with SKC skies continuing.

Outlook: VFR/dry through Saturday with lighter winds expected
on Friday. There is a chance for some light showers as well as
potentially degraded flying conditions on Saturday night across
northern portions of the area, including SBY.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect on the coastal waters N
  of Parramore Island through this evening due to lingering
  gusty winds.

- Benign marine conditions expected Friday into Saturday before
  a cold front brings increasing winds/building waves Saturday
  night through Monday.

A large area of high pressure is centered over the TN/OH Valley this
afternoon, with weak low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. The
pressure gradient between these two features remains relatively
tight, especially over the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay and northern
coastal waters where WNW winds are hovering around 15 kt. Frequent
gusts of 20-25 kt continue N of Parramore Island on the coastal
waters and Small Craft Advisories are in effect here through this
evening. Not seeing much in the way of obs or model guidance to
support the SCA in the northern bay zone, so will cancel with this
update. Winds become NW 10-20 kt tonight with the highest speeds
well offshore of the nearshore waters in the ocean. Will also note
that a brief surge/increase in the winds is possible just after
06z/1 AM in the Chesapeake Bay, but this would be quite
brief/transient and confidence is low.

The center of the high shifts SE and situates along the NC/SC coast
Friday. Westerly winds range from ~10 kt on the Chesapeake Bay,
rivers, Currituck Sound, and southern coastal waters to ~15 kt on
the northern coastal waters. Benign marine conditions prevail into
Saturday as winds shift gradually become southerly. A cold front
will approach and cross the waters Sunday into Sunday night, with
elevated SW winds developing Saturday night ahead of the front,
veering to the NW Sunday evening and overnight behind the front.
Small Craft Advisories are very likely from Saturday night through
Monday in both the pre-frontal and post-frontal regimes. At this
time, expect the highest winds behind the front early Monday morning
with sustained winds 20-25 kt and gusts 30-35 kt. Will monitor model
trends for any Gale potential on the northern waters, but current
indications suggest winds should fall just shy (the highest probs
for frequent >34 kt gusts are N of our area of responsibility).
Winds diminish Monday night into the middle of next week with sub-
advisory conditions expected.

Seas of 2-3 ft (locally 4+ ft out 20 nm) persist into the evening
today, remaining around 2 ft Friday and Saturday. With the increased
winds Saturday night through Monday, seas build to 3-6 ft, but the
offshore wind direction should prevent seas from building too high.
Waves in the Chesapeake Bay prevail in the 2-3 ft range or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1030 PM EST Wednesday...

Dry and breezy conditions continue on Thursday with min RH values
25-30 percent across inland areas and 30 to 35 percent for the
Eastern Shore and immediate coastal locations. Highs will once
again be in the lower 60s for most (mid to upper 50s across the
Eastern Shore). WNW/W winds remain breezy with gusts to 20 to 30
mph. Therefore, an Increased Fire Danger SPS has been issued
through 5PM for all of VA except the Eastern Shore counties.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 5 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...AJB/RHR
LONG TERM...AJB/RHR
AVIATION...AJB/RHR
MARINE...SW
FIRE WEATHER...