115
FXUS61 KAKQ 040551
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
151 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts offshore today with much warmer
today and Wednesday. A weak area of low pressure develops well
south of the area Thursday and nudges up the Southeast coast
Thursday night. This feature could bring cooler temperatures,
increased cloud cover, and some showers. A cold front
approaches Friday and crosses the region Saturday, bringing a
return to afternoon and evening storm chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mostly clear skies with lows in the 50s tonight.

~1024 mb high pressure is centered just offshore this evening.
Skies are mainly clear (outside of a few higher clouds) and will
continue to remain clear through tonight. Lows tonight in the
mid- upper 50s, though cannot rule out some lower 50s in
interior portions of srn VA and NE NC.

Ridging expands along the East Coast into New England Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the upper low along the Gulf coast slowly meanders
northward. Not expecting any impacts from this low Wednesday, other
than some increased mid-upper cloud cover later in the day. With the
higher heights and strengthening southerly flow, warmer temps in the
mid-upper 80s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Low pressure moving up the Carolina coast casts uncertainty
  Thursday into Friday, but increased clouds and showers have
  been introduced into the forecast.

- High temperatures have also trended cooler for Thursday and
  Friday.

There is decent model agreement that the area remains dry into
Wednesday night. Overnight lows only dip into the lower 60s under a
mostly cloudy sky.

There remains considerable uncertainty in the Thursday-Friday
timeframe as there is large model spread surrounding the evolution
of the upper low and attendant sfc low that is poised to develop
along the coast or just inland. The low is not likely to move fast
given nebulous flow aloft with the ridge to the north. The 12z
deterministic guidance generally funnels moisture further north
compared to the 00z suite and PoPs have been raised into the 30-40%
range across the southern half of the area from Thursday afternoon
into early Friday morning as the sfc low meanders inland or near the
coast of NC, eventually crawling over or just S of our area Friday.
There is also uncertainty on how long any precip lasts, with some
guidance (including the 12z ECMWF) keeping precip across our S
through Friday afternoon. Also should mention that NHC has
highlighted this low as having a very low (10%) chance of briefly
developing subtropical or tropical characteristics later in the
week. This would be contingent on the low remaining offshore. Even
if it does, no ensemble member from the EPS/GEFS suite drops the min
pressure below 1005-1006 mb. Overall, this low likely doesn`t
produce significant impacts across our area, with impacts limited to
moderate to locally heavy rainfall later Thursday across NE NC and
the lower temps Thursday into Friday.

With the clouds around and cooler temps, instability looks rather
meager Thursday and Friday. There could be some recovery later
Friday to support renewed shower/storm development as a cold front
and shortwave aloft approach from the W. However, this potential is
also of low confidence given the previous discussion surrounding the
coastal low.

Unfortunately for those who were looking forward to the summer-like
temps this week, there have been significant downward adjustments to
the high temperatures Thursday and Friday, with upper 70s Thursday
and lower 80s Friday. If rain or clouds linger during peak heating
Thursday or Friday, these temps could be even lower. In fact, the
GFS continues to suggest temps struggle to warm out of the 60s
Thursday. Looking through all of the global ensemble members, this
scenario is near the 5-10th percentile of potential outcomes so am
not too inclined to believe this at the current moment.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Warm to hot temperatures with increased shower/thunderstorm
chances Saturday ahead of a cold front.

- Drier Sunday, followed by more unsettled weather early next week.

Enhanced mid-level flow (30-40 kt at 500 mb) overspreads the area
Saturday and the GEFS/EPS ensembles are in good agreement that a
cold front will cross the area during the afternoon or evening. An
attendant shortwave aloft should also support a higher coverage of
showers/tstms and PoPs remain the 50-60% range for the area, with
the highest coverage across the N and NW. With dew points near 70
and warm temps, instability could be favorable for some strong to
severe tstms. A few of the machine learning aids continue to hint at
this possibility. The coverage of precip should drop off overnight
Saturday as the cold front sags S. Sunday now looks drier, outside a
few pop-up afternoon showers. Highest PoPs are S of the area and
closer to the remnant frontal feature, which is supported by
diminishing PW anomalies in the 12z EPS/GEFS. An unsettled pattern
may develop by Monday and Tuesday along a developing frontal wave,
with EPS/GEFS showing an increase in PW anomalies.

Forecast highs are in the mid/upper 80s ahead of the front Saturday,
and it will be noticeable more humid with dewpoints nearing or
reaching 70F. Would not be surprised if we see some lower 90s
Saturday, especially if convection holds off until later in the day.
Temperatures trend back toward average Sunday into early next week
behind the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure centered off the coast continues to prevail as of
06z. VFR under a clear sky with a light S wind. VFR conditions
continue to prevail today into tonight as high pressure remains
the predominate feature locally. The wind will mainly be SSW
5-10kt later this morning into early aftn, before becoming
S/SE by mid-late aftn and into early evening, and then light out
of the S tonight. High clouds increase tonight as low pressure
approaches from the S.

This area of low pressure moves into the eastern Carolinas
Thursday/Thursday night, and then nudges offshore Friday.
Confidence in the details is low. However, there is a potential
for showers with heavy rain and degraded flight conditions,
primarily for the southeastern terminals, with a lesser chc from
RIC to SBY. Additionally, a breezy easterly wind is possible
along the coast Thursday night into early Friday. A cold front
will approach from the NW Saturday bringing a 50-60% chc of
showers/tstms. This front remains near of just S of the area
Sunday with a 20-30% chc of showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 323 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions prevail through much of the week, as
  high pressure settles off the coast. Southerly winds will be
  highest (~15 kt with gusts to 20 kt) during the late
  afternoon-late evening from today-Thursday.

- A low pressure system develops to our south on Thursday, and
  this could bring SCA conditions to part of the marine area on
  Friday with E-SE winds and increasing seas. However, there is
  still a considerable amount of uncertainty with respect to the
  strength/track of the low.

High pressure is slowly sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast this
afternoon, and light winds are still being observed across the local
waters. As the high slips further offshore this evening into
tonight, the gradient on the back side of the high will tighten,
resulting in winds briefly surging to 10 to 15 kts (~15 kts in the
Bay), with gusts to 20 kts possible. Winds will quickly diminish by
early tomorrow morning to 5 to 10 kt and become SSW. Tomorrow
and Thursday will be similar to today`s wind pattern, featuring
lighter winds in the morning followed by a wind surge in the
late afternoon/evening hours. Sub-SCA conditions will prevail
through Thursday, and seas will be generally 2-3 ft in the
coastal waters and waves will be 1-2 ft in the Chesapeake Bay.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the development and exact
track/strength of a weak surface low later this week. Guidance is
forecasting that the low will develop across the Carolinas Thursday
and track NE towards the area through Friday. The question remains
is how far south of the area will the low track. This will be
important in terms of wind speeds across waters during the Thursday
night through Friday timeframe. Some guidance is suggesting that the
low will be more suppressed to our south, while others suggest it
will be a much closer approach to our southern waters. Regardless of
the exact track of the system, increasing SE swell produced by the
low will put our coastal waters into SCA conditions with seas
building to ~5 ft by Friday. The low will track NE out into the
western North Atlantic on Saturday, and seas (and potentially winds)
are forecast to subside below SCA criteria by Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SW
LONG TERM...AJZ/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI/NB