389
FXUS61 KAKQ 031348
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
948 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through the area this morning and moves
north of the area by this afternoon. A backdoor cold front drops
into the Mid-Atlantic Friday, before retreating back to the
north Saturday morning. A higher chance for showers and
thunderstorms arrives late Sunday into Monday as a cold front
slowly crosses the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected
early next week with the potential for below freezing
temperatures Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Much warmer today in the wake of a warm front with very
  isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
  northern tier of the area later this afternoon.

A potent trough is digging across the Great Lakes early this
morning, with a ridge off the East Coast. At the surface, high
pressure is co-located with the ridge offshore, and low pressure is
centered over Lake Superior, with a cold front trailing through the
Upper Midwest. Locally, a warm front has lifted N through central VA
and the Eastern Shore. Mostly cloudy to overcast, with stratus
inland and mid clouds toward the coast. Temperatures are mild this
morning ranging from the upper 60s N to the lower 70s. The warm air
hasn`t yet reached the piedmont with temperatures remaining in the
lower 60s.

The warm front continues to slowly lift northward this morning, with
most locations remaining mostly cloudy to overcast. Temperatures
will steadily rise through the day. Lower clouds should
scatter/dissipate by this afternoon, with the sky becoming partly to
mostly sunny S to partly to mostly cloudy N under higher level
clouds. High temperatures today range from the upper 70s/around 80F
N to the lower/mid 80s S (locally cooler at the immediate coast).
Becoming quite humid for early April with dewpoints rising into the
mid 60s. A few showers/tstms are possible later this afternoon and
evening in vicinity of the northward moving warm front.
Thermodynamic and kinematic profiles are actually rather favorable.
However, rising heights and a subtle mid-level capping inversion
will limit or inhibit tstm development. Therefore, the severe threat
locally will be conditional upon tstms actually developing. Mainly
dry and mild tonight with a slight chc of showers across the Lower
MD Eastern Shore. Partly to mostly cloudy and mild with low
temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures for most of the area Friday,
  but cooler over the Eastern Shore behind a backdoor cold
  front.

- Shower/thunderstorm chances increase by Friday from central VA
  to the Eastern Shore.

- Well above average temperatures continue Saturday.

The consensus amongst the 00z/03 model guidance shows a
backdoor cold front dropping into the MD Eastern Shore Friday
morning, and gradually pushing S along the coast during the
afternoon, but making much slower progress inland. Therefore,
the high temperature forecast Friday is challenging. The current
forecast allows for an earlier frontal passage NE with highs in
the upper 60s to around 70F, with mid/upper 80s S of the
boundary across southern VA and NE NC, and a transition zone in
between. Temperatures potentially fall into the upper 50s along
the Atlantic coast of the Eastern Shore, with low/mid 60s
elsewhere on the lower Delmarva. A few showers/tstms are
possible over central VA Friday afternoon with PoPs mainly
20-30%, and then 20-40% from central VA to the Eastern Shore
Friday night as a subtle impulse rotates around the upper ridge
centered over the Southeast CONUS. A few strong tstms are
possible Friday afternoon/early evening given dewpoints in the
mid to locally upper 60s. The backdoor cold front stalls in
vicinity of southern VA Friday night, with lows ranging from the
lower/mid 50s N of the boundary, to the lower/mid 60s S of the
boundary. Some areas of fog and stratus are possible along a N
of the front.

Dry and very warm/humid for most areas Saturday as the backdoor
front retreats to the north as a warm front (but may struggle
to cross the Eastern Shore). Highs will be well into the 80s for
most with 60s/70s on the Eastern Shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Sunday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Sunday afternoon through Monday.

- Cooler conditions arrive early next week with below freezing
  temperatures possible Tuesday night.

The large ridge finally breaks down during the second half of
the weekend as the stalled front to our north approaches and
crosses the area. A breezy SW wind develops Sunday with wind
speeds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This
will help temperatures to rise even more with widespread upper
80s possible as the front nears. Shower/tstm chances increase
later Sunday afternoon/evening with the highest precip chances
expected Sunday night and Monday as the front slowly crosses the
area from NNW-SSE. Thunder chances become confined to far SE
portions of the area by Monday aftn with post-frontal stratiform
rain possible farther NW. 00z/03 GEFS/EPS each depict PW values
>200% of seasonal averages (near seasonal max with respect to
climo) with the front Sunday night, and even lingering into SE
VA/NE NC Monday. The combined with at least modest forcing aloft
could result in some heavier rain rates.

Rain chances end from NW-SE Monday-Monday night as much
cooler/drier air filters into the area behind the front.
Cool/dry weather is expected on Tuesday/Wednesday with highs
struggling to get out of the 50s. The coldest night looks to be
Tuesday night where widespread lows in the upper 20s to lower
30s are forecast (especially away from the coast).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure is off the New England coast as of 11z.
Meanwhile, low pressure is lifting NE over the Great Lakes. A
warm front associated with this low is lifting through the
region. IFR cigs are observed at RIC, with MVFR at ORF, PHF,
SBY, and ECG. The wind is S 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt. RIC is
expected to remain IFR through 13-14z, with generally MVFR
elsewhere, and brief IFR cigs possible at SBY and PHF. Cigs
lift from about 14-16z as the warm front lifts N of the area and
the wind veers to SW and increases to ~15kt with gusts to
25-30kt. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight with a SSW wind of
10-15kt. Mainly dry today into tonight aside from a minimal chc
of a late aftn/evening shower or tstm at SBY. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail after 16-17z and continue through most of
tonight, with some patchy stratus possible toward 12z Friday.

A backdoor cold front crosses part of the area Friday, leading
to a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms during the aftn/evening
(highest at RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR Saturday and Sunday as the front
moves back north of the area. A cold front approaches from the
west Sunday and moves across the area Sunday night into Monday
bringing showers and a few tstms. Flight restrictions are
possible during this time period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 405 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions continue over the coastal Atlantic N of
  Parramore Island and northern Bay zones due to elevated
  southerly winds and seas.

- Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend
  and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front.

High pressure that was centered just off the Northeast coast
yesterday afternoon has now shifted eastward into the Atlantic and
is now located SE of Nova Scotia. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure
previously centered over the Northern Plains has lifted just north
of the Great Lakes region. With the northeastward movement of both
of these features, the gradient across our area is starting to
relax. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the northern Bay
(winds of 15 to 20 kts) and northern Ocean zones (seas up to 5 ft).

The aforementioned high will be suppressed southward as the low
tracks northeastward through eastern Canada. The high will expand
and settle off the SE coast near Bermuda. Winds will remain around
15 kts in the Bay and 15 to 20 kts in the Ocean. With good mixing
over land due to SW flow expected today, rivers and potentially some
Bay zones may need SCAs this afternoon, but due to the lower
confidence, have left them out for now. An SCA will remain in effect
in the northern Ocean zones through at least this evening due to
elevated seas. During the day Friday, a backdoor cold front will
slide southward across the northern portion of our area. Winds will
diminish ahead of the front and seas will subside to 1-2 ft in the
Bay and 2-3 ft in the Ocean. By Saturday, the backdoor front will
lift back to the north as a warm front and winds will return to
south to southwest and increase to 10 to 15 kts in response. Winds
will increase further Saturday night to 15 to 20 kts with gusts up
to 25 kt as the gradient tightens behind the Bermuda high and an
approaching cold front. SCA conditions will begin Saturday night and
continue through Monday, with a brief reprieve likely by Monday
afternoon. The front will move through the area on Monday, with a
secondary front moving through Monday night into Tuesday. Good CAA
is expected behind the secondary front and another round of SCA
conditions are possible Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Thereafter, high pressure briefly builds back across the region,
resulting in a decrease in wind speed by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ERI
NEAR TERM...AJZ/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ERI
LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...NB