361
FXUS61 KAKQ 010806
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
406 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today, with mainly dry
weather through early afternoon, followed by increasing storm
chances from west to east late in the day into tonight. The
front will be very slow to cross the local area through Wednesday,
with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing. Mainly dry
conditions are expected late in the week into next weekend as
high pressure brings somewhat lower humidity to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

- Slower timing of an approaching cold front will lead to a hot
  and humid day with limited rain chances until late afternoon
  or evening except across the NW.

- Best SVR threat (Slight Risk) will be across the far northern
  tier where better shear resides, and where storms arrive
  earlier.

- Locally heavy rain is possible tonight, mainly for the NW 1/2
  of the FA where a Slight ERO risk is in effect.


The latest WX analysis indicates an upper level ridges well off
the SE US coast, with an approaching upper trough from the
western Great Lakes to the lower OH Valley where there is a lot
of ongoing convection early this morning. There is also an area
with scattered activity across the central and southern
Appalachians. Locally, dry conditions prevail with mainly just
high clouds in place and a very warm/humid start to July. There
is enough of a pressure gradient in place in between high
pressure well offshore, and low pressure approaching from the W,
to keep mixing SW winds to the sfc. Near the coast, SW winds are
gusting to around 20 mph, with 5-10 mph on average well inland.
Temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 70s, with a few
places around 80F.

For today, the cold front will be slow to approach from the
W/NW, and have generally slowed the timing of the arrival of
showers and tstms compared to the previous forecast cycle. Most
of the CAMs, as well as the GFS and ECMWF really do not bring
much of a chc for showers and storms to the SE 1/2 of the area
until tonight. The 01/00Z NSSL is the most aggressive at
developing a pre-frontal band of storms across central VA as
early as 17-18Z, but this is probably overdone. For PoPs, have
mainly leaned to the NBM, blending in some of the CAMS to show a
little more detail in coverage and timing. The models are in
pretty good agreement that far SE VA and NE NC have a very low
chc until tonight. Model PW values in excess of 2.0" are
expected across the piedmont as the front approaches this aftn,
with ~1.75" to the SE. A somewhat stronger flow, with 850-500mb
winds of 25-30kt arrives later this aftn and evening associated
with the upper trough across the northern tier of the area where
improved storm organization and a slight risk=k for SVR is in
place. Most of the remainder of the area is in a marginal
severe risk (with just general thunder along the Albemarle
Sound). This is mainly due to weaker flow aloft the farther to
the SE, and also with little chc for any storms until after
sunset to the SE. Timing of the severe threat will generally be
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Additionally,
locally heavy rain is possible with the aforementioned moisture
rich airmass, and WPC has a Slight risk over NW portions of the
FA and a Marginal into SE VA. The heavy rain threat should
linger later into the evening compared to the severe threat.
Mid level lapse rates appear fairly weak, generally only
~5.5C/KM so the main threat will be damaging wind gusts with
hail generally unlikely. Highs today will range from the mid 90s
across the SE, and mostly in the lower 90s elsewhere. Peak heat
indices in the upper 90s W to near 105F SE (not expected to be
widespread enough for a Heat Advisory). Rain chances remain high
for the NW 1/2 of the area overnight, though the latest HREF
3"/3hr neighborhood probs drop off overnight with the loss of
daytime heating so the intensity of the rain is expected to
diminish somewhat after midnight and therefore confidence in a
Flood Watch for the NW is too low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- The front will be slow to push SE, likely stalling near VA/NC
  border, bringing increased rain chances to SE VA and NE NC
  Wednesday (Slight ERO for Wed in SE zones).

01/00z guidance continues to trend slower with the front as it
pushes SE Wednesday, keeping increased rain chances area-wide,
with heavy rain threat shifting to SE VA and NE NC through Wed
evening. There appears to be ample upper level support for
heavy rain across the SE Wed as the upper trough axis crosses
the area in tandem with PW values > 2.00". Therefore, the
primary hazard Wednesday will be heavy rain and the 01/00Z HREF
3"/3hr neighborhood probs have increased to 30-50% for the VA
eastern shore and Hampton Roads. A flood Watch may need to be
considered by later shifts if this continues. In addition, some
of the guidance depicts some additional heating with lower
morning PoPs, especially for southside Hampton Roads and NE NC,
which could allow for some localized strong wind gusts given
moisture laden updrafts in a high PW airmass. High temperatures
drop into the 80s Wednesday (some areas could potentially be in
the upper 70s) with PoPs ranging from 40-60% N to 70-90% SE
with the front lingering over the local area. Overall, NW zones
will tend to see diminishing PoPs by late aftn as drier air
moves in. 01/00z EPS/GEFS continue to show the front pushing SE
of the region Wednesday night into Thursday, with PW values
dropping to well below percent of normal Thursday. A secondary
cold front approaches from the N Thursday. However, PoPs are
generally < 15% given a drier airmass, with 15-20% near the
Albemarle Sound. High temperatures return to the lower 90s, with
heat indices in the mid/upper 90s as dewpoints drop into the
upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Lows Thursday night drop into
the mid to upper 60s well inland to the low 70s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry through Independence Day and the upcoming
  weekend.

- Lower dew points will bring some relief to the area.

By Friday, in the wake of a secondary cold front, surface high
pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes and moves SE into
the local area. Dewpoints are forecast to only be in the low-mid
60s into central VA to the upper 60s SE. Highs Friday are in
the mid 80s to near 90F behind the secondary front, with lows
Friday night dropping into the 60s for most of the area, so some
relative relief (at least for early July standards) is
expected. Upper ridging will start to build across the Northeast
and Mid- Atlantic by next weekend. Highs trend back toward the
90s, but dewpoints will be slower to recover and mainly dry
conditions are expected for the Independence Day holiday
weekend. More humid conditions along with low chances of diurnal
showers/tstms arrive early next week well in advance of another
cold front moving into the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR through late aftn at the main terminals (With higher
probs for tstms NW of RIC) as a cold front gradually approaches
with a prefrontal trough across the area. This will allow for
scattered storms to develop Tue afternoon into Tue night. Have
continued with PROB30 wording for tstms at RIC and SBY,
particularly from 20z through 00z, and have added these for
ORF/PHF/ECG closer to 00Z and beyond. Storms may produce strong
to severe winds late Tue afternoon into Tue night, with the
greatest chc for this at RIC/SBY. CIGs remain mainly VFR with
CU developing this afternoon (~5000 ft CIGs). MVFR or IFR VSBYs
with MVFR CIGs are possible with convection, particularly
tonight with MVFR/IFR CIGs spreading across the area overnight
(lower confidence in this across the SE terminals).  Otherwise,
winds will avg SW 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt today.

The cold front will be slow to cross the region Wednesday
with scattered showers/storms likely (numerous across SE VA/NE
NC). These showers/storms will be capable of producing flight
restrictions (mainly due to VSBYs) in heavy rain along with a
chc for some localized strong winds. VFR conditions return
Thursday through Saturday as drier air builds into the region
behind the cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories into effect this morning through early
Wednesday for most of the local waters.

- Benign marine conditions return Wednesday afternoon through the
extended period.

SW flow continues this morning with high pressure well to the SW
offshore and a cold front approaching from the W. Winds early this
morning are generally 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt, though middle
portions of the Ches Bay are 20 to 25kt. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect for coastal waters south of Parramore Island and the
Currituck Sound, The Ches. Bay and lower James river. Winds will
likely have a brief decrease in the late morning/early afternoon
today as the marine layer becomes more stable, but will increase
once again this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm associated with
the front as expected to bring heavy rain and potentially damaging
wind gusts. SCAs will be issued as need. Approx. time frame is
between late this evening through tomorrow morning. SCA for the
northern coastal waters will go into effect 11 AM this morning as
winds and seas increase late morning. Waves will peak in the bay
early morning this at 2-3 ft with an occasional 4 ft wave. Late
afternoon/evening, seas will peak at 3-5 ft. Winds and seas remain
elevated through early Wednesday morning before starting to taper
off. Looking at the extended forecast, benign marine conditions will
resume by mid-week and are expected to continue through the holiday
weekend.

The rip current risk is moderate for all beaches today.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 2025 ranked in the Top 10 Warmest at all 4 Long term
Climate stations:

* Site: Avg Temp (Rank)

- RIC: 78.1 (5th warmest)
- ORF: 78.8 (7th warmest)
- SBY: 75.6 (9th warmest)
- ECG: 78.6 (10th warmest)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-
     634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633-654-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/RMM
MARINE...AC/KMC
CLIMATE...