881
FXUS61 KAKQ 261913
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
313 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches the region today, allowing for scattered
showers and storms, particularly this afternoon into early this
evening. Drier and cooler weather returns for Sunday and
Monday, followed by another warmup with above normal
temperatures heading into the middle of next week. Daily
scattered showers and storms also develop Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are expected today as a cold
  front moves across the area.

- Locally strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon
  into early this evening.

- Breezy today with SW winds gusting to 20-25 mph.

Loosely organized isolated to scattered showers and storms have
developed across the area this afternoon ahead of a deep-layer
trough aloft and cold front at the sfc. There are also now some
indications of more organized convection developing closer to the
front itself in the far NW corner of our CWA (near the border of
Louisa and Orange Counties). SPC mesoanalysis indicates up to 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE (w/ SBCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) across most of our VA and
MD counties (lower NC) due to a seasonably moist airmass in place,
with effective shear values 25-30 kt. As the front continues to
slowly sag southward, this environment should be enough to support a
threat for some strong to severe storms through the afternoon and
evening. Expect this threat to increase as clusters push SE and
develop outflow, with some upscale growth into bowing segments or
lines possible over the next few hours. The primary threat continues
to be damaging wind gusts of 50-65 mph. Could also see some small
hail, but the large hail threat should be tempered by the linear
storm mode and meager mid-level lapse rates less than 6 C/km.
Showers/storms end from NW to SE, by 6-8 PM for most of the I-95
corridor and 8 PM-midnight for areas further E/SE.

Temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 F this afternoon,
with a few lower 80s also possible in areas that see the most
sunshine. Cooling off in any shower or storm. Clearing late
tonight behind the front as winds turn NNW and drier air filters
in. The winds could also gust to 20- 25 mph for a time tonight
as CAA develops. Becoming chilly with lows in the mid 40s for
most of the area and upper 40s-lower 50s for far SE VA and
coastal NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry Sunday through Tuesday with a warming trend beginning
  Monday.

Dry and pleasant wx is expected Sunday through Tuesday, with below-
normal temperatures initially, followed by a substantial warming
trend toward midweek. Behind the cold front passage tonight, high
pressure becomes centered over the Great Lakes and upper OH
Valley Sunday as the upper trough axis shifts offshore and the
flow aloft turns NW. Sunny skies Sunday with highs in the lower
70s W of the Chesapeake Bay and upper 60s on the Eastern Shore.
Forecast lows Sunday night are in the mid 40s for most, except
50s at the immediate coast and on the VA Eastern Shore. However,
should note that rather ideal radiational cooling conditions
are likely to be present Sunday night with the high building
over the area and temps could drop to around 40 F in some
locations, which is closer to the statistical guidance. Not
expecting any frost at this time, but will keep an eye on this.

The high then moves over the area Monday and shifts offshore to our
SE Tuesday. Thus, temperatures rebound into the mid 70s Monday with
lows also a few degrees milder in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs
in the low-mid 80s are then forecast Tuesday as the flow turns to
the SW. Some increase in cloud cover is possible across the NW later
Tuesday as a cold front initiates deep convection over the OH
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Warm weather is expected next week with highs well above
  normal most days.

- Scattered (mainly diurnal) showers and storms possible
  Wednesday through Friday.

Ridging persists across the eastern CONUS through the middle of the
week, with temperatures becoming increasingly warm. Above-normal
highs in the mid-upper 80s are expected Wednesday through Friday. A
cold front approaches the area Wednesday, but there is uncertainty
on if it moves through or rather stays just N of the area. Either
way, it should push well to the N Thursday before finally pushing
through Friday. Scattered showers and storms are possible Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons/evenings with the front nearby, though only
modest height falls suggest the coverage may be on the lower side.
An area of low pressure tracks towards the Great Lakes on Friday
underneath a large trough, providing focus for additional
thunderstorms. This activity could be more organized given
strengthening flow aloft ahead of the trough. Cooling/drying off
behind the cold front next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

A cold front is approaching the area this afternoon. Ahead of
the front, widely scattered showers with some embedded thunder
have developed over the Piedmont. A few lingering showers are
also passing through the MD Eastern Shore near SBY. The general
thinking is these showers/storms will gradually intensify
through the afternoon while dropping southeast through the
evening hours. Have enough confidence to introduce 2-3 hr TEMPO
groups in the 20z-03z timeframe (earliest N and W and latest S
and E) at all of the terminals for reduced VSBY and gusty winds
from storms. Localized higher wind gusts (40+ kt) are also
possible, along with small hail. Outside of storms, 10-20 kt
winds with gusts up to 25-30 kt expected this afternoon. Winds
become NNW behind the front with a brief period of gusty winds
likely overnight. Skies also clear late tonight through Sunday.

Outlook: VFR expected Tuesday as high pressure builds into the
region. Another cold front potentially drops into the area by
the middle of next week with unsettled weather returning from
mid to late week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions are ongoing across
  most of the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
  Thunderstorms into this evening could necessitate SMWs.

- Winds become NNW at around 25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt from N
  to S starting late this evening, continuing through tonight
  into early Sunday behind the cold front.

- SCAs are already in effect for most zones, and will go into
  effect for remaining zones starting this evening and
  continuing through Sunday.

- Calmer conditions return Sunday night into the first half of
  next week.

Deepening low pressure is currently moving into northern New
England, with the trailing cold front now along the spine
Appalachians, and forecast to push east of the mountains
shortly. Elevated SW winds have prevailed since this morning,
and despite an expected lull right out ahead of the cold front
early this evening, have put all zones but the Rappahannock
River and the coastal waters S of Parramore Island in effect
given frequent gusts to around 25 kt this aftn. SCAs run
through Sunday and continue for the remainder of the waters for
the post- frontal winds starting tonight. Tstms are possible
into the evening along and just ahead of the front, which could
necessitate SMWs.

The front is forecast to see pressure rises on the order of
7-9mb/6 hr later this evening, along with strong CAA for late
April with 925mb temps dropping to around 2C north and ~6C
south. Winds become NNW following the FROPA and are still
expected to average 25 kt with gusts of 30-35 kt between about
midnight and 7 AM Sunday morning. While occasional low- end gale
gusts are possible (especially on the bay at elevated
terminals), not expecting these to be frequent enough (or
persist long enough) to warrant any Gale headlines. The guidance
has remained relatively consistent over the past 24-36 hours
with the latest 12z/26 CAMs (ARW/FV3/HRRR/NAMNest) suggesting
solid SCA conditions with occasional 35 kt gusts. Local wind
probabilities for >34 kt gusts are in the 20-30% range north and
10% or less S of Windmill Pt/Parramore Island. Small Craft
Advisory winds continue through most of Sunday, likely dropping
to ~15 kt by late aftn. While there will be an additional weak
push of CAA Sunday night, wind speeds are forecast to remain
just below SCA criteria through the night with probs of >18 kt
winds remaining aob 15%. Therefore, did not extend the SCAs past
4-7 PM Sunday. Much lighter winds are expected on Mon/Tue as
high pressure builds over the waters. SCAs potentially return
early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though uncertainty is high
at this time range.


Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 2-3 ft and seas of 3-4 ft S/4-5
ft N prevail into the evening, building to 4-6 ft by late
tonight behind the front, with 3-5 ft waves on the bay.
Waves/seas remain around SCA criteria on Sunday before dropping
below criteria Sunday evening. Generally expected 2-3 ft
seas/1-2 ft waves Monday-Tuesday, then increasing into
Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ632>634-
     636>638-650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Sunday
     for ANZ635-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...RMM/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI/LKB