707
FXUS61 KAKQ 060001
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
701 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure build north of the area today. Meanwhile, an area
of low pressure approaches tonight into Thursday, bringing the
potential for wintry precipitation to northern portions of the
area. High pressure briefly returns on Friday before another
area of low pressure approaches the region this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Precipitation this evening through Thursday morning may bring a
brief wintry mix for northern portions of the area.

- A light glazing of ice is possible from Fluvanna and Louisa
counties over to Dorchester county, MD.

Current surface analysis shows high pressure building to the north
of the area, near the Great Lakes, with low pressure to the
southwest. CAD has set up with overcast skies and cooler temps in
the lower 40s for the majority of the area (MD Eastern Shore
reaching only the mid 30s). Light rain showers have begun towards VA
Beach and the MD Eastern Shore. Precip chances this afternoon are
expected to have little to no accumulations as any showers will
remain light. Tonight, a steadier batch of precip will move in with
the highest PoPs after midnight tonight lasting through the early
morning.

Temps today have warmed up slightly higher than models had suggested
as the wedge slowly locked into place. With this wedge, the 850mb
temps are well above freezing with a strong warm nose. Model
guidance has trended surface temps up slightly, with most CAMs
eliminating most ice accumulations in the area. A light glaze is
still possible in the northern most portions of the area with the
onset of precip as the rain cools the air down to the wet bulb.
However, once cooled to the wet bulb, there seems to be no cold air
to sustain below freezing temps, causing any freezing rain to look
very marginal. HREF probs for Tw below freezing and >0.1"/hr precip
rates are only 50-60% for northern portions of the area. Dorchester
county MD could see ice accumulations up to 0.02" since current
surface temps have been slightly cooler. Winter Weather Advisories
are in effect for the northern most counties in the area, including
Louisa, Fluvanna, Goochland, Caroline, Westmoreland, Western
Hanover, Western King William, Western King and Queen, Western
Essex, and Dorchester counties with a brief period of freezing rain
and a light glaze of ice expected.

For the majority of the area, plain rain is expected with QPFs
between 0.1-0.5" with higher amounts to the north with temps
staying above freezing. Thurs will warm up to the upper 50s to
lower 60s, depending on how quickly the wedge erodes with skies
improving from overcast to mostly cloudy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cold air damming gradually erodes Thursday afternoon/evening.

- Mild and dry on Friday.

Temperatures on Thursday will likely be slow to rise with a CAD
airmass remaining in place over the area. These wedges are
typically slow to erode this time of year, so would not be
surprised to see high temperatures reached very late in the day
or even after dark. Highs Thursday will range from the low to
mid 60s south, to the mid 50s north (upper 40s to lower 50s
Eastern Shore). Much of the first half of the day will see
continued cloud cover and rain chances, before a gradual
clearing late.

With the front exiting the area Thu night into Friday, will keep
chances for rain mainly across the south and east Thu night. Could
be a rumble of thunder, but not enough confidence to include in the
forecast given that the fropa will be at night. Continue to keep low
PoPs on Friday as the front moves south of the area. Tough
temperature forecast on Friday though as the baroclinic zone will be
across the area. Mean 850mb temps from ensemble guidance suggests 0C
across the north to +9C across the south, although there will be
cold advection during the day. Will go with low to mid 50s north to
mid to upper 60s south but this could certainly change in subsequent
forecasts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Active pattern to continue into next week

- Milder weather returns for the Sunday, but abrupt cool down by
Monday could allow for periods of wintry weather through Wednesday

The progressive pattern will continue into next week as zonal flow
continues across the CONUS. A baroclinic zone across the Middle
Atlantic associated with the strong jet stream just north of the
area will persist through the extended, allowing for the active
weather to continue.

The frontal boundary which moves through the area on Friday will
stall out just south of the area by Friday night. Meanwhile, a weak
upper disturbance moves through the middle Atlantic Friday night
with weak isentropic lift across the area. Although moisture is very
limited, there will likely be some light rain moving across the area
into Saturday morning. There may be just enough cold air later
Friday night that could allow for a rain/snow mix across the
northern tier. Models are not in great agreement in this, and the
grand ensemble only show about a 50% probability of 850mb temps
dropping below 0C. Will keep the mention of rain and snow across the
far north late Fri night into early Sat AM, but even if there is
some snow, it will be of little consequence due to the very low QPF
amounts.

A CAD wedge will build across the area on Saturday. This should
allow temps to drop back into the 40s and lower 50s during the day
on Saturday. Generally went cooler than guidance given the expected
clouds and chances for rain. With the nearby baroclinic zone and
increasing isentropic lift across the area due to a surface wave
developing over the central MS valley and moving toward the middle
Atlantic states, will keep chances for rain all day on Saturday with
likely PoPs across the northern tier Sat afternoon and evening.

Sunday may end up being the only dry day in the extended. High
pressure will build into the area from the west allowing for partly
to mostly sunny skies. With the onshore winds and fairly tight temps
gradient aloft (850mb T 0C north to +8C south), there will be a
fairly large range in temperatures with mid to upper 50s north, to
lower 70s in NE NC (except mid 50s to mid 60s near the coast).

The really tricky part of the extended forecast begins on Sunday
night and persists into Wednesday. With the frontal boundary moving
south of the area Sun night, another stronger CAD wedge sets up
across the area. With mean 850mb temps dropping below 0C north of
the VA/NC border and another wave of low pressure developing along
the baroclinic zone, there will likely be another round of light
wintry precipitation late Sun night into Monday morning. Again, this
system will not have a great deal of moisture to work with so
precipitation amounts will be light, but there is still a
possibility of some light snow accumulations by Monday morning. The
better chances for precipitation come in Monday into Tuesday. Latest
guidance suggests it will warm enough initially for the
precipitation to be all rain Monday afternoon into Monday evening.
However, overnight Monday into Tuesday there is much more
uncertainty about the thermal profiles. The CAD wedge remains in
place, however warm air aloft moves in as upper heights build across
the east coast. Latest ensemble guidance suggests the better chances
for snow Mon night through Wed will be across northern VA and
perhaps into the MD eastern shore. However, it seems possible that
there will be a zone of freezing rain/sleet just to the south of the
area of snow. At this time given that this is still days 6 and 7, it
is simply too far out into the forecast period to determine any
specifics with regards to thermal profiles and specific precip type.
For now, will keep all rain across the south, but continue with a
rain/snow mix across the north. With a constant stream of moisture
along this baroclinic zone, there will be moderate amounts of QPF
with the ensemble guidance suggesting a 25% probability of at least
1 inch of QPF Tue into Wed. Bottom line, the area will be in the
battle zone between the cold air to the north and the warm air to
the south so the overall forecast for early next week is of low
confidence for temperature and precip type.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 PM EST Wednesday...

1030mb high pressure is centered near Cape Cod as of 00z, with a
surface ridge axis extending SW into the Mid-Atlantic region.
Meanwhile, moisture is spreading in aloft from the W. Cigs are
mainly VFR with bases of 3.5-5.0kft, with the exception of
~2.5kft MVFR at ECG. The wind is E to NE 8-12kt. High pressure
slowly nudges offshore tonight as weak low pressure develops and
moves NE in vicinity of the Outer Banks, and then moves farther
offshore Thursday as another area of low pressure tracks across
the Mid-Atlantic region. Cigs gradually fall to MVFR over the
next few hours, with IFR cigs developing 03-05z at ECG, 04-06z
at ORF and PHF, and 05-07z at RIC and SBY, with LIFR cigs
possible late tonight/early Thursday morning, mainly after 10z.
Light rain spreads into the region overnight and lingers into
Thursday morning, with vsby potentially falling to 1.5-3sm in
light rain and mist. A mix of RAPL is possible at the onset at
SBY. The wind will generally be NE 5-10kt overnight, become
light and variable early Thursday morning, and then SW 8-12kt by
Thursday aftn as the second area of low pressure moves offshore.
Cigs slowly lift from S-N Thursday aftn.

Patchy stratus is possible late Thursday night/early Friday
morning. Otherwise, improved conditions are expected Friday. A
frontal system will bring additional rain chances and potential
flight restrictions Saturday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Northeast flow continues through tonight.

- Gusty southwest winds possible Thursday, but conditions generally
remaining sub-SCA.

- Benign marine conditions expected Friday and Saturday.

High pressure, centered across the eastern Great Lakes and St.
Lawrence River Valley, continues to wedge southward into the area
this afternoon. This is leading to NE flow for all of the marine
area, with ~10 kt in the northern waters and ~15 kt in the southern
waters, including the lower bay and James River and the mouth of the
bay. Seas are 2-3 ft N and 3-4 ft S, with 1-2 ft waves in the
Chesapeake Bay (2-3 ft at the mouth). The axis of higher winds will
gradually shift N through the day into the central and northern
coastal waters as weak low pressure lifts N along the coast, with
the wind direction turning also ENE or E.

Late tonight into Thursday morning, the high will retreat well to
our NE as a warm front lifts N. Winds become SW ~15 kt in the wake
of the warm front Thursday afternoon. Gusts up to 20-25 kt cannot be
ruled out near the shore and on the tidal rivers but think these
will be quite isolated, especially over the open waters of the bay
and ocean. These SW winds could briefly increase to 15-20 kt in the
northern waters with seas in the 3-5 ft range. However, confidence
is too low in widespread small craft advisory conditions so will
hold off on any headlines with this forecast package.

Winds shift again to the N/NW by Friday behind a weak cold front
with onshore flow then continuing through most of Saturday. Several
disturbances and areas of low pressure move near or just N of the
area Sunday into the beginning of next week and periods of SCA
conditions are possible, but the exact timing of these periods remains
uncertain at this range. At this time, SCAs appear most
probable Sunday. Beyond Thursday, seas generally remain 2-4 ft
and waves in the bay 1-2 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MDZ021.
NC...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for VAZ048-062-
     064-075-510-511-517-519-521.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for VAZ509.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AJB/MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW