712
FXUS61 KAKQ 221828
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
128 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front north of the area crosses the local area as cold
front this afternoon. Intermittent chances for rainfall are
possible through this afternoon. High pressure builds back into
the area Sunday into early next week, leading to dry
conditions. Another system impacts the area Tuesday into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1109 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another round of showers will move through the region through
  early afternoon along a southward- moving cold front.
  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible in far southern VA
  and northeast NC through early afternoon.

Latest surface analysis reveals ~1000mb sfc low pressure over
the Gulf of St. Lawrence. The attendant surface cold front is
now just offshore of the New England and mid-Atlantic coast. An
upstream shortwave trough approaching from the west is finally
starting to nudge quasi- stationary front draped over the area
farther to the SSE as a cold front. This front is also ushering
another area of light to locally moderate showers through the
region late this morning, with these showers to cross offshore
by mid to late afternoon. Latest mesoanalysis is showing some
modest MLCAPE values of 100-150 J/kg, albeit with some capping
along with it. While thunder probs are generally quite low, and
12z CAMs remain a bit less than bullish on areal coverage this
afternoon, will hang on to mention of thunder through the
mid-afternoon mainly for the US 58 corridor into NE NC. Midday
temperatures have tumbled back into the low to mid 50s behind
the front over northern portions of the area, and expect that
falling temps trend to continue into the afternoon for the
central and southern CWA. Highs for the day have already been
reached for the RIC metro and MD eastern shore, with some
limited additional warming for Hampton Roads and NE NC into the
upper 60s to low 70s before the front drops through this
afternoon.

Thicknesses hang up a bit tonight, with the true CAA still about
24 hours out from our region. That said, clearing tonight, with
a relatively cooler airmass filtering in across the area
tonight post-frontal. Chilly overnight temperatures in the upper
30s to around 40 are forecast for tonight north of Richmond over
to the VA northern neck and Lower MD Eastern Shore. Farther
south, slightly milder early morning lows in the 40s to near 50
over central/SE VA into northeastern NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

- Dry, seasonable conditions Sunday, with cooler temperatures
  Monday.

High pressure will build across the region on Sunday, with seasonal
temperatures and dry conditions returning. A clipper system moving
through southern Canada will drag a reinforcing, dry cold front
across our area on Sunday, with an even drier, cooler air mass
pushing into the area into its wake. With high pressure overhead
this cooler air mass Sunday night, the resulting mostly clear skies
and light winds will produce a good environment for radiational
cooling. A chilly night is forecast for Sunday, with lows dropping
into the 30s (lower 40s along the coast). Ridging aloft centered off
the SE coast will build across the region on Monday and the surface
high will settle across the Mid-Atlantic, leading to mostly sunny
skies through the first part of the afternoon. Temperatures will
struggle to breach 60F during the day on Monday despite the abundant
sunshine forecast. Cloud cover will start to move into the area from
NW to SE as another systems approaches the area from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Another storm system approaches Tuesday into the middle of
  next week.

- Drier and cooler weather returns late in the week.

Though there continues to be some inconsistencies between global
models in regards to the next system that is forecast to impact the
area by mid-week, guidance is starting to become slightly more
aligned with the latest 00z run. There continues to be good
agreement that a frontal system will move through the OH/TN Valley
Tuesday as sfc low pressure occludes over the upper Midwest and
Great Lakes. Measurable precip should overspread the area later
Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front pushes north. While there
has been divergence in solutions come Wednesday, guidance is
trending towards the cold front pushing through on Wednesday and
WEdnesday night which would lead to a cooler, drier Thanksgiving.
Have still maintained slight rain chances across the forecast area
for Thursday morning, but have dried it out by the afternoon.
Regardless of the exact details, there is a good signal that warmer
temperatures will continue through Wednesday, followed by much
cooler temperatures returning by late week as an expansive upper
trough digs down across the Eastern United States. By Friday,
temperatures could struggle to reach 50F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 PM EST Saturday...

A weak cold front was pushing south-southeast across coastal
terminals to begin the 18z/22 TAF period. VFR conditions still
in place ahead of the front in the warm sector across SE VA and
NE NC (ORF/ECG), with IFR to MVFR CIGs farther inland across
RIC/PHF/SBY. Winds have veered around to the NNW post-frontal
and will shift to the north to northeast by evening. CIGs
recover to VFR this evening, though onshore flow could hold SE
coastal terminals in high-end MVFR into the late evening hours.
Model trends continue to reflect likely clearing to VFR after
06-08z, though patchy stratus could remain an issue over the
piedmont through ~12z Sunday before clearing.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions all terminals on Sunday, with
VFR to persist into early next week. Another chance for rain
and some flight restrictions returns for later Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 240 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dense fog is possible over the waters through mid morning.

- A cold front crosses the local waters today, bringing a slight increase
  in N to NW winds this afternoon into tonight. SCAs are in
  effect for the bay from this afternoon through late this
  evening.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected on Sunday, with a decent chance
  of low-end SCAs from Sunday night-Monday morning behind
  another cold front.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered offshore with weak low
pressure in the central Appalachians. A frontal boundary is draped
just to the north of the waters with S winds of 5-10 kt as per
current observations. In addition, Dense Fog Advisories are in
effect for the NC waters until 7 AM, and may need to be expanded
northward during the next few hours. Wind speeds through 7 AM will
remain no higher than 10 to 15 knots out of the south. The low then
moves offshore, dragging a cold front through the waters from the
late morning-late afternoon. Winds turn to the north following the
FROPA and briefly (for ~3 hours) increase to 15-20 kt on the
bay/ocean before becoming NNE-NE and diminishing to 10-15 kt
tonight. The highest confidence in low-end SCA conditions is over
the lower Chesapeake Bay, and have issued SCAs here from 1-10 PM
(with the most likely window for frequent 20-25 kt gusts being from
2-6 PM). Even though it is more marginal in the upper bay, have
issued SCAs here as well after collaboration with neighboring
offices. High pressure builds back over the waters Sunday, leading
to fairly benign/sub-SCA conditions. Another cold front crosses the
waters Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing a decent chance of
low-end SCAs with N-NW winds. Sub-SCA conditions return from late
Mon-Wed AM. SCAs are again possible from late Wednesday into
Thursday as a stronger cold front approaches and crosses the waters.

Seas gradually build to around 3 feet later today-tonight (locally 4
feet south), with waves in the bay averaging around 2-3 feet. Seas
diminish back to around 2 feet Sunday, before building to 3-4 ft by
Monday behind the next front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ630-
     631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW/NB
NEAR TERM...MAM/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...SW/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...AJB/ERI