567
FXUS61 KAKQ 191929
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
329 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast trends of unsettled and potentially impactful weather
along the coast continue for much of next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Generally quiet conditions this weekend ahead of the next cold
front.

2) Persistent onshore flow and a potential strengthening coastal low
will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier forecast next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally quiet conditions this weekend ahead of the
next cold front.

A cold front moved through the area this morning and is now well
south of the area and is draped across the Carolinas. A brief surge
of drier, cooler air moved in the wake of the front as high pressure
built in, but winds have already shifted to the east, so it will
only be short-lived. Temperatures are currently in the upper 70s to
lower 80s and dew points are in mid 60s, making for a comfortable
mid-September afternoon. Satellite imagery has been depicting mostly
cloudy skies for much of the morning, but cloud cover has finally
started to scatter out some this afternoon.

The high will quickly move offshore tomorrow as the next front
moves into the Ohio River Valley, and winds will shift to the
southeast to south. This will invite the warmer, slightly more
humid conditions to the area, with highs creeping back up into
the mid to upper 80s (lower 80s for the Eastern Shore). Expect
to see more breaks of sunshine, especially across southern
counties. The front will nudge closer to our northern/western
CWA border by late Sunday potentially bringing some showers
along with it. Sunday night low temperatures will be a smidge
milder in the mid to upper 60s as cloud cover and scattered rain
chances return.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent onshore flow and a potential
strengthening coastal low will create a wetter, cooler, and breezier
forecast next week.

A big shift in the weather pattern is on tap for next week as
another front approaches the area, bringing unsettled weather to the
local area. The cold front will slowly drop through the area late
Monday through Tuesday as an expansive ridge sets up from the Great
Lakes through the Hudson Bay area. The slow progression of the front
will allow for rain/storm chances to linger through the day on
Monday. WPC currently has a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall as
some showers/storms could produce areas of localized flooding. SPC
has included a Marginal risk (level 1/5) for the far SW piedmont
counties, as this is where the warmer temperatures and slightly
better environment will be. Due to the slow movement of the front,
there will likely be a sharp temperature gradient across the
forecast area, with upper 70s possible across the northern half of
the area and 85F to near 90F across the southern half of the area.
Global models have an area of low pressure developing along the
frontal boundary as it moves through the area. The ridge will shift
a bit eastward on Tuesday, which will move this low offshore of the
Mid-Atlantic region. Guidance has the low strengthening as it lifts
northeast, however, there are discrepancies between models in
the exact details. Ensemble guidance has a wide range of
possible strength and various tracks, so there is uncertainty
regarding exact impacts to our area. This low is forecast to
slowly lift northeastward, and the gradient between this low and
the aforementioned high to the north will tighten, bringing
increasing NE winds to the area starting Monday night. The
duration of the elevated flow, the proximity of the low to the
coast, and the strength of the low will all play an important
role in how several coastal hazards pan out, so stay tuned to
the forecast for next week as this system develops.

While the coast is potentially seeing impacts from the low, the
broad high will build down to the west of the low and put most of
the area in a CAD set-up. This will keep temperatures likely well
below normal through most of the week, especially in the piedmont.
With the forecast NE flow, coastal areas will still be modified by
the warmer water temperatures, but are still forecast to be below
normal mid-late week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Saturday...

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow, though a few
brief intermittent MVFR CIGs are possible this afternoon due to
persistent low level clouds across the area. Winds will be from the
northeast-east at 7-12 kts through this evening before shifting to
the east then southeast and diminishing to 4-8 kts overnight through
tomorrow.

Outlook: Another cold front slowly crosses the region Monday
into Tuesday bringing a more unsettled pattern with degraded
flight conditions through at least mid-week. Coastal terminals
may also have elevated northeasterly winds for an extended
period.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly sub-SCA conditions are forecast through the weekend.
  Elevated NE to E winds prevail later through tonight.

- Decent model consensus that strong high pressure becomes
  locked in place across eastern Canada/northern New England
  next week, bringing several days of onshore flow and the
  increasing potential for Gales. SCA level winds are forecast
  by Monday night/Tuesday, with the highest winds likely
  occurring between late Tuesday night and Thursday night.

Strong high pressure over eastern Canada allows for mainly sub-SCA
conditions this weekend, keeping E-NE winds around 10-15 kt across
the local waters. A push of CAA today behind the cold front
yesterday has allowed for winds to reach ~15 kt with gusts up to 20
kt this afternoon and evening, with winds relaxing back to 10-15 kt
overnight. With the E-NE flow, a brief period of near 5 foot seas is
possible tonight for coastal waters off NE NC, but confidence is not
high enough to issue a Small Craft Advisory. Winds will then shift
out of the SE by Sunday night and veering to the SW by Monday
morning, remaining below the SCA threshold at 10-15 kt.

While there is some uncertainty with respect to timing, a stronger
front is progged to cross at least the northern half, possibly more,
of the marine area by late Monday/Mon night. The latest models show
the front moving through all local waters by Tuesday morning,
shifting the winds back out of the NE, but exact timing make change
with future forecasts. Regardless, the strongest CAA doesn`t look to
make it to the area until Wednesday or Thursday, as a low pressure
system deeps off the Atlantic coast. Significant to potentially
dangerous marine conditions are possible from late Tuesday night
through Thursday as NE winds increase in response to the tightening
pressure gradient between the strong high to our north and deepening
sfc low offshore. Confidence in a period of northeasterly gale force
gusts (35-40+ kt) is increasing, with the most likely timeframe
being from Wednesday-Thursday. Local wind probs show a 60-80% chc of
gusts to 34 kt across the coastal waters and a 30-60% across the
Ches. Bay. Seas likely build to 9-13+ ft by Wed/Thu due to the
prolonged onshore flow. Solid SCA level winds will likely continue
through the end of next week as the low potentially lingers
offshore. Of course, this is still several days away, so the timing
and placement of the synoptic scale systems are not locked in place
yet, but there continues to be quite a strong consensus amongst the
Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles in the general pattern. We will
continue to monitor the trends as this gets closer in time.

There is a moderate rip current risk for all beaches Sunday and
Monday from onshore flow. Dangerous surfing conditions are likely by
the middle of next week with the prolonged onshore flow. Localized
beach erosion is possible from mid to late next week as well
depending on how things evolve.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JKP/NB
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...ERI/KMC