545
FXUS61 KAKQ 090051
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
851 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will moves away from the coast of New England
tonight. Low pressure off the southeast coast will slowly drift
northeast into Saturday and farther offshore from Sunday into
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 850 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Persistent northeast winds continue tonight with low pressure
  remaining off the Carolina coast.

Evening analysis shows surface high pressure has moved off the
New England coast but it continues to ridge to the SW and into
the local area. Low pressure off the NC coast continues to
become better defined with the resulting pressure gradient
between low and high pressure maintaining NE surface winds
across the region. Clouds have decreased over the last few
hours, now seeing broken clouds only in the SE. Otherwise,
mostly clear skies for the area tonight. Overnight low temps
will be comfortable, ranging from the upper 50s NW to the low
70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly dry with temperatures warming a few degrees each day into
  early next week.

High pressure settles over the region this weekend into early next
week as coastal low pressure moves away into the Atlantic. High temps
Saturday will be in the low 80s across the region with fewer clouds
and only an isolated shower or two possible near the Albemarle Sound
during the afternoon. Mostly clear Saturday night with lows again
falling into the upper 50s NW to the upper 60s/low 70s SE. Similar
conditions are expected Sunday and Monday with temps increasing a
few degrees each day. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend,
generally in the low to mid 60s Sunday night and mid to upper 60s
Monday night. Mainly diurnal showers/storms are possible Sunday and
Monday across the southern half of the area. Only meager flow is
expected aloft so severe storms are not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend continues with temps near to slightly above seasonal
  norms this week.

Upper ridging expands across the SE CONUS midweek as surface high
pressure migrates offshore ahead of an upper trough over the
Midwest. Temps will continue to warm a degree or two each afternoon
with highs in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday and upper 80s to low 90s
Wednesday through Friday. Humidity increases as well with dew points
rising back into the low to mid 70s. The upper trough will suppress
the ridge somewhat by the later half of the week, bringing a return
to mainly diurnal shower and storm chances. Increased clouds and
precip will keep afternoon heat indices from rising much above the
100 degree mark. Overnight low temps moderate back into the low 70s
through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Friday...

Mostly VFR conditions across the area with MVFR CIGs at ECG
fluctuating between SCT and BKN. Current satellite and recent obs
show more MVFR CIGs moving into the ECG area, so have kept
prevailing MVFR. However, am expecting heights to rise in the next
few hours. Otherwise, FEW/SCT low-end VFR CIGs in the SE at ORF and
PHF which will continue to rise/dissipate overnight. Winds are
currently NE at 10-15 kt at the SE terminals and around 5 kt at RIC
and SBY. At the SE terminals, winds will decrease overnight to be 5-
10 kt.

Outlook: High pressure builds S into the region this weekend
into early next week as low pressure moves offshore. This will
bring mainly dry and VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions prevail through at least early Saturday.

- Rough surf conditions continue through Saturday, causing the
  High Rip Risk. An elevated rip current risk will likely
  continue through Sunday.

- Benign marine conditions are expected from Monday through at least
  the middle of next week as winds become S-SE.

1026mb high pressure is centered S of Nova Scotia this aftn, with
weak but developing low pressure well SE of Cape Hatteras. The wind
is ENE and generally 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt N to 15-20kt with
gusts to ~25kt S. Seas range from 5-6ft N to 6-7ft S. Waves in the
Ches. Bay are approximately 3-5ft in the lower Bay and 2-3ft in the
middle Bay. SCAs remain in effect for all but the upper rives.
However, conditions are quite marginal in the Ches. Bay N of New
Point Comfort. This SCA will continue for now given that it only
runs through this evening. Overall, wind probs have diminished.
Otherwise the only changes to the SCAs were to extend the mouth of
the Bay through midday Saturday. The ENE wind will generally
diminish to 10-15kt with gusts to ~20kt later tonight, and 10-15kt
by Saturday.

Onshore flow diminishes Sunday as high pressure settles S and low
pressure moves NE well away from the coast. Seas subside to 3-4ft by
Saturday night and Sunday. Benign marine conditions are expected
through the middle of next week as high pressure is generally
centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This will result in sub-SCA
southerly flow. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft, with 1ft to occasionally
2ft waves in the Ches. Bay.

Rough nearshore surf and a high risk of rip currents will continue
Saturday with persistent onshore flow and nearshore waves of 4-5ft N
to ~5ft S. At this time rip current forecast for Sunday is moderate
for all beaches. However, there is a potential for the rip risk to
remain high for the southern beaches given shore normal ENE swell.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Persistent NE flow will allow for tides to remain elevated across
the area. However, a rather strong ebb tide is occurring at the
mouth of the Ches. Bay after a weak flood tide despite onshore
flow and elevated seas. The higher astronomical high tide occurs
this evening/overnight and another round of nuisance tidal
flooding is possible. Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for
areas bordering the Ches. Bay/ocean/tidal rivers in VA and the
Currituck Outer Banks in NC. No additional statements have been
issued at this time for the Bay-side of the MD Eastern Shore
given a rather strong ebb tide following a weak flood tide.
Water levels gradually fall this weekend as winds/seas slowly
subside, but could remain elevated through the higher
astronomical high tide Saturday evening/Saturday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-
     631-633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-650-
     652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...KMC/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...KMC/RHR
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...