117
FXUS61 KAKQ 221941
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
241 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low lingers over the area this afternoon before
moving offshore tonight into Saturday. As a result, gusty winds
and cool temperatures continue through this afternoon and
evening along with light rain across the northern half of the
area. Weak high pressure builds over the area late in the
weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of next
week. Unsettled weather returns late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages...

- Cold, light rain moves in across the northern portion of the
  area this afternoon into this evening.

- Gusty conditions last throughout tonight into tomorrow with
  gusts between 15-20mph.

Afternoon upper air analysis shows the center of the vertically
stacked low over the Northeast. The low at the surface has weakened
slightly and is now currently sitting at 992mb and is colocated with
the upper low. Over the past couple of hours the low has continued
to nudge south and the pressure gradient from the low has tightened
over our region. This is causing winds to pick up across the area.
Weather stations at the surface are showing wind gusts between 20-
25 mph across the area. Latest satellite scans are showing cloud
cover increasing across the CWA and this will continue until the
low exits the area later this evening. Radar as of 2PM this
afternoon is showing stray showers approaching the Richmond area as
well as southern Maryland. Temperatures at the same time are ranging
between the middle to upper 40s across the area.

For the rest of this evening and into tonight. Clouds will continue
to increase as the low moves south. Then by the early hours of
Saturday the low will have begun its transition moving back to the
east and cloud cover will start to decrease. Latest CAM guidance as
well as real time data Pops remain in the forecast through the rest
of the afternoon and into early tomorrow morning. QPF looks to
remain light with generally just a few hundredths of an inch of rain
across VA and 0.15-0.20" across the MD Eastern Shore. Forecast
soundings appear to show a small potential for graupel/snow mixing
in with the rain at times if precip rates are high enough. Rain will
then taper off from west to east this evening as the low moves
offshore. Lows tonight are not expected to be as cold with temps in
the upper 30s to around 40F for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages...

- A ridge builds back in bringing seasonable temperatures and
  dry weather.

As the upper level trough and vertically stacked low leaves the
region Saturday into Sunday, breezy conditions will last
throughout Saturday with persistent northwest flow. Wind gusts
are forecasted to be between 20-30mph. Skies will have mainly
cleared besides some cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will have warmed up slightly with highs
being in the middle to upper 50s across the CWA. By Saturday
night into Sunday morning winds will begin to diminish as a
ridge and high pressure move into the region. With the winds
diminishing and skies clearing, decent radiational cooling
should occur allowing temperatures to drop into the lower to
middle 30s inland and upper 30s along the coast. Sunday
temperatures will warm back up Sunday with highs in the lower
60s and lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Monday will be the
warmest day of next week as southerly flow returns to the area
ushering in warmer air. Highs will be in the middle 60s and lows
in the lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages...

- Mild temperatures continue Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday behind a
cold front.

- An unsettled pattern develops by late week with rain chances
increasing.

An upper ridge is forecast to push offshore of the Mid-
Atlantic coast Monday night as a trough dives into the Great Lakes
and deepens by Tuesday. A cold front associated with the upper
trough pushes across the Mid-Atlantic region late Monday night into
early Tuesday. The operational 22/12z ECMWF along with the EPS have
more moisture than the deterministic GFS and GEFS. However, each
ensemble suite has limited to no probabilities of QPF >= 0.1".
Therefore, confidence in showers is rather low and the current PoP
forecast for late Monday night/early Tuesday morning reflects the
NBM with 20-30% PoPs N, 15-20% into southern VA, and 15% or less
over NE NC. Mild Monday night into Tuesday, with lows Monday night
in the upper 40s to lower 50s, followed by highs Tuesday in the mid
60s to near 70F with downsloping westerly flow.

The upper trough deepens and shifts E across the Northeast Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Surface high pressure along with a dry/cool
airmass builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Forecast
lows Tuesday night drop into the lower to mid 30s N to the upper
30s/lower 40s SE, followed by highs in the 50s Wednesday. Another
trough, initially over the Central Plains Wednesday moves E and
deepens over the Eastern CONUS Thanksgiving Day into Thursday night
with developing surface low pressure. Again, the EPS has more
moisture than the GEFS, but even the GEFS has 30-50% probs for >=
0.5" rain Thursday into Friday, with the EPS slightly higher and
with a broader more northward footprint of >= 0.5" rainfall probs.
Confidence in timing, track, and intensity remain low, but there
increasing confidence for rain later Thanksgiving Day into Thursday
night/early Friday. Highs Thanksgiving Day will likely reflect a CAD
set-up with upper 40s NW to lower 60s SE. Lows Wednesday night and
Thursday night are mainly in the upper 30s NW to mid/upper 40s SE.
There is a potential for a much cooler/colder airmass to arrive late
next week in the wake of the late week system.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Friday...

Mainly VFR conditions across the southern TAF sites through the
18z TAF period. SBY will experience MVFR conditions as cloud
cover continues to thicken and showers move towards the
terminal. RIC also has the possibility of MVFR conditions and
showers as clouds continue to nudge south. Forecast soundings
show cold temps aloft with above freezing temps in the lowest
few thousand feet and surface temps in the upper 40s for most.
Therefore, expect snow aloft to melt into rain before reaching
the ground. However, dry air in the lowest portion of the
atmosphere support wet bulb temps in the upper 30s to around
40F. As such, a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain are
possible if rates are high enough. The best chance is north
central VA to the Eastern Shore including SBY, but can`t rule
out a few flakes at RIC. Additionally, MVFR VIS is possible at
SBY mainly late this afternoon into this evening. Light rain
moves offshore by midnight with clearing overnight. Apart from
precip, low level stratus move in from NW to SE late this
morning into this afternoon. CIGs remain mainly VFR apart from
MVFR CIGs from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore late this
afternoon into tonight. A brief period of IFR CIGs is possible
between 00-04z Sat. Otherwise, W winds 5-10 kt early this
morning increase to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt this afternoon
into early tonight before gradually diminishing.

Outlook: Winds shift to the NW and remain gusty Saturday,
before diminishing Saturday night into Sunday. Mainly dry
conditions continue into mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all area waters
  through 4 PM this afternoon.

- Gale Warning are in effect for all area waters from 4 PM into
  Saturday morning.

- Benign marine conditions begin Sunday amd last through early next
  week.

Latest analysis shows a strong upper level trough across the East
Coast. Surface low pressure is centered over the NY/PA border
bringing cooler, drier air to the area and a ramp up of elevated W
winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. The surface low pressure will
shift to be centered off-shore this evening, which combined with
cool air being pushed down across the waters, will increase the wind
speeds to Gale conditions with sustained winds 25-35 kt with gusts
up to 45 kt over the ocean and winds 25-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt
in the Bay. These winds will reach Gale force this evening and last
through early Saturday morning. Once the pressure gradient relaxes,
the winds will slowly decrease to sub-SCA conditions. It is most
likely that SCA will be needed to replace the Gale Warning until
early morning hours Sunday. After that, high pressure will move into
the area bringing calmer NW winds and seas, so sub-SCA conditions
are expected until the next cold front potentially on Tuesday.

Waves and seas are currently 1-2 ft in the Bay and 2-4 ft in the
coastal waters. They are expected to increase as winds pick up,
resulting to waves 4-6 ft in the Bay and 5-7 ft, occasionally 8 ft,
in the coastal waters overnight while peak winds occur. Seas will
then diminish during the day Saturday through early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ630>634-638.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-
     658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...HET/RMM
MARINE...KMC