620
FXUS61 KAKQ 240751
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
351 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large ridge remains across the Eastern CONUS, bringing very
hot conditions to the region through the week. Low- end chances
for afternoon showers and thunderstorms make a return from mid
to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot today with temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s
and widespread heat indices of 110+.

- Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect across all of the area
excluding the Maryland Beaches and Northern Outer Banks today.

Early this morning, an anomalous ~598 dm ridge remains centered over
the local area. At the surface, ~1023 mb high pressure is centered
over the southern Appalachians. Very warm this morning with
widespread readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Still seeming
some heat indices in the upper 80s to lower 90s even at this hour,
with the highest readings along the coast and within the urban areas
of Hampton Roads and Richmond.

The ridge remains centered over the area this afternoon, with high
pressure remaining at the surface. Today will likely be the hottest
day of the stretch with widespread readings in the upper 90s to
lower 100s. In addition to the air temperatures, dewpoints today
will remain in the low to mid 70s, resulting in peak heat index
values of 110+ over much of the area. Extreme Heat Warnings remain
in effect for the entire area minus the Maryland Beaches and
Northern Outer Banks where a Heat Advisory remains in effect.

While most areas likely remain dry today, there is a chance for a
few isolated storms from the Piedmont to roughly the I-95 corridor
from late afternoon into the evening. The isolated storm chances
then shift south into southern portions of the area during the
overnight hours. CAMs continue to hint at the potential, though
solutions vary widely from more widespread activity to no activity.
Lows tonight remain very warm in the mid-upper 70s with urban areas
potentially not dropping below 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another very hot day on Wednesday with heat indices around 110.

- Becoming more unsettled Wednesday and especially Thursday
afternoon/evening. A few storms may be strong to severe.

The upper ridge remains over the region on Wednesday but heights
decrease slightly to ~594 dm. High pressure that is situated to the
west of the area will also start to weaken. Wednesday is still
expected to be very hot with temperatures in the upper 90s to around
100, but 1-2 degrees cooler compared to Tuesday. Max heat indices
will range from 105 to 110 (locally higher in spots). Opted to leave
the Extreme Heat Warning in place for Wednesday, though some spots
may fall short of the 110F threshold (mainly across the western
Piedmont and Eastern Shore). Due to the subtle weakening of the
ridge, expect higher chances (20-30% PoPs) for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms. The upper level low across FL will allow for a 250mb
jet streak to develop across the Carolinas into far S VA.
Interestingly, given the position of the ridge and upper level low,
winds aloft will be easterly instead of the typical westerly winds
we normally see at this latitude. This jet streak combined with
another day of high- extreme instability and cooler 700mb temps may
allow for more scattered (as opposed to isolated) convection
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given the very high instability and
DCAPE, strong to damaging winds are possible with storms that can
break the cap. SPC has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk (1
out of 5) for severe storms Wednesday, with a Slight Risk (2 out of
5) just to our southwest. Any convection quickly tapers off
Wednesday night with lows in the mid 70s for most (upper 70s along
the coast).

Thursday will remain hot, but not as hot compared to previous days.
Highs will generally range from the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s to
lower 90s across the Eastern Shore). Heat Advisories will likely be
needed for a portion of the area (especially Richmond/Hampton Roads
metros) where max heat indices will hover ~105. In addition, higher
shower/storm chances are expected on Thursday compared to previous
days (30-50% PoPs). Any stronger storms will again have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts with SPC again placing a
majority of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Heat indices drop slightly Friday through the weekend, but it
will still remain hot with above average temperatures.

- An unsettled pattern develops with daily, diurnal chances for
isolated to scattered storms.

The upper ridge will remain with us through the remainder of the
week, but will gradually flatten as several troughs move well to our
north. A front may also try to approach far northern portions of the
area Friday into Saturday. Temperatures likely stay hot/above
average through the period and the humidity remains high, but
additional Heat Advisories are unlikely until potentially Sunday or
early next week. Daily thunderstorm chances will also increase
during the period, with PoPs of 30-45% (highest across the
Piedmont). A few strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be
possible these storms.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR prevails through the 24/06z TAF period. Mainly clear skies
over the region early this morning with strong high pressure
remaining in control. Light and variable to calm wind is
expected to continue this morning. Very similar wx expected
today compared to the past few days, with local seabreezes
again developing near the coast (E-NE winds at ORF/PHF/ECG). SCT
CU are again likely by midday through the late aftn. An
isolated shower or tstm will be possible, mainly inland and W of
the TAF sites by late aftn/evening but the coverage is too low
to include in any TAF.

Outlook: Mainly and VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the middle of the week as strong high pressure builds
over the region. Somewhat better chances for aftn/evening storms
Wed- Fri as the upper level ridge gradually breaks down. These
could cause very isolated flight restrictions should they impact
a terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through the end of the week.

Benign marine conditions will continue through the extended forecast
as high pressure remains dominant across the region. The wind
direction will be influenced by the sea breeze during the day as the
land heats up, then will become generally variable overnight. As the
high starts to shift offshore by mid-late week and into the weekend,
winds will settle on a S/SW wind direction, though sea breezes will
still impact areas close to shore. The pressure gradient may tighten
marginally Thursday through the weekend, but wind gusts will remain
at or below 15 kts. Seas in the Ocean remain around 2 ft for the
week, increasing to 2-3 ft by Friday. Waves in the Bay and rivers of
1-2 ft or less through the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Tue 6/24-Wed 6/25:

(no record highs set or tied Mon 6/23)

Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-24   102(2010)   101(1880)   100(1914)    99(2010)
06-25   100(1952)   100(1952)    99(1914)   100(1952)


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Tue 6/24-Wed 6/25:

*SBY set a new record high min of 76 Mon 6/23 (breaks old
 record of 75 in 1929).


Date    Richmond     Norfolk    Salisbury   Eliz. City
06-24    78(2010)    79(1994)    75(1969)    76(2011)
06-25    76(1921)    79(1880)    75(1909)    76(1949)

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/RMM
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...SW/NB
CLIMATE...