852
FXUS61 KAKQ 221706
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1206 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low lingers over the area today before moving
offshore tonight into Saturday. As a result, gusty winds and cool
temperatures continue today along with light rain across the
northern half of the area. Weak high pressure builds over the area
late in the weekend, bringing a gradual warmup for the first half of
next week. Unsettled weather returns late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages...

- Cold, light rain moves in across the northern portion of the
  area this afternoon into this evening.

Late morning sfc analysis shows a potent upper level low
centered across the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, low pressure
was located over S NY. This surface low is expected to pivot SW
today as the Fujiwhara Effect pulls it closer to the local area
due to a lobe of vorticity pivoting over the Appalachians and E
across the Carolinas today.

Temps late this morning have risen into the upper 30s to lower
40s W, and lower 40F along the coast. Mostly clear skies this
morning will allow for temps to rise into the upper 40s for most
by early this afternoon with temps expected to remain mostly
steady in the afternoon as stratus moves in from N to S. As the
aforementioned surface low moves SW this afternoon, a band of
light rain pivots into N half of the FA. QPF looks to remain
light with generally just a few hundredths of an inch of rain
across VA and 0.15-0.20" across the MD Eastern Shore. Forecast
soundings appear to show a small potential for graupel/snow
mixing in with the rain at times if precip rates are high
enough. This is due to very anomalously cold temps aloft,
saturation through the DGZ, dry air at the surface (allowing for
cooler wet bulb temps), and temps above freezing in the lowest
0.5km. Any chance for a few snowflakes would be rate-driven with
heavier precip more likely to pull down colder air aloft
towards the surface and therefore allow for temps to drop to
around 39-40F. At this time, the best potential appears to be
across MD where steeper low level lapse rates (and cooler temps
just above the surface) exist in conjunction with locally higher
QPF. However, this is too conditional to reflect in the gridded
forecast given the very marginal temps. Rain tapers off from W
to E this evening as the low moves offshore. Lows tonight are
not expected to be as cold with temps in the upper 30s to around
40F for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages...

- Near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected this weekend.

High pressure (centered over the Southeast) builds into the area
this weekend with moderating temps and dry weather expected. Highs
in the mid-upper 50s (most in the upper 50s) Sat and upper 50s to
lower 60s Sun are expected. Lows remain chilly in the mid 30s inland
to lower 40s along the coast Sat night and mid 30s NW to upper 30s
to around 40F SE Sun night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages...

- Warm temperatures are expected early next week.

- A cold front moves through Tuesday with cooler weather returning.

- An unsettled pattern develops by late week with rain chances increasing.

An upper level ridge builds into the East Coast Mon into Tue with
high pressure centered off the Southeast coast. This will allow for
warmer weather with highs in the mid-upper 60s (locally around 70F)
Mon and Tue. An upper level trough and surface low move across the
Great Lakes on Tue with a trailing cold front moving across the area
during the day. This will allow for cooler weather returning for Wed
with highs in the 50s. Given the forcing displaced well to the N of
the local area, confidence in showers on Tue is low. However, have
kept a slight chance (15-20% PoPs) for a few isolated showers late
Mon night into Tue.

An unsettled pattern develops for late week with models continuing
to show the potential for an area of low pressure impacting the area
around Thanksgiving into Fri. Confidence in timing, track, and
intensity remain low. However, NBM PoPs have increased with rain now
likely on Thanksgiving. Rain chances continue into Fri. Both the
GEFS and EPS have around 0.5" of rain across most of the area.
Additionally, it looks to be a cold rain for the NW portion of
the FA given the potential for CAD to develop. As such, expect a
wide range in highs Thu with the NW much cooler than the SE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Friday...

Mainly VFR conditions across the southern TAF sites through the
18z TAF period. SBY will experience MVFR conditions as cloud
cover continues to thicken and showers move towards the
terminal. RIC also has the possibility of MVFR conditions and
showers as clouds continue to nudge south. Forecast soundings
show cold temps aloft with above freezing temps in the lowest
few thousand feet and surface temps in the upper 40s for most.
Therefore, expect snow aloft to melt into rain before reaching
the ground. However, dry air in the lowest portion of the
atmosphere support wet bulb temps in the upper 30s to around
40F. As such, a few snow flakes mixed in with the rain are
possible if rates are high enough. The best chance is north
central VA to the Eastern Shore including SBY, but can`t rule
out a few flakes at RIC. Additionally, MVFR VIS is possible at
SBY mainly late this afternoon into this evening. Light rain
moves offshore by midnight with clearing overnight. Apart from
precip, low level stratus move in from NW to SE late this
morning into this afternoon. CIGs remain mainly VFR apart from
MVFR CIGs from the Northern Neck to the Eastern Shore late this
afternoon into tonight. A brief period of IFR CIGs is possible
between 00-04z Sat. Otherwise, W winds 5-10 kt early this
morning increase to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt this afternoon
into early tonight before gradually diminishing.

Outlook: Winds shift to the NW and remain gusty Saturday,
before diminishing Saturday night into Sunday. Mainly dry
conditions continue into mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all area waters this
morning through this afternoon.

- Gale Warnings are in effect for all area waters later this
afternoon into Saturday morning.

Early this morning, ~980 mb low pressure remains over the
Northeastern US. This low will linger in the same vicinity today into
tonight, before gradually lifting further to the northeast, with
high pressure returning later this weekend. Winds have diminished
somewhat from earlier, with WNW winds generally ranging from 15 to
20 knots with higher gusts. Seas are running around 3 to 4 feet, and
waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 2 to 3 feet.

The general "lull" in the winds will continue through this morning
and into the early afternoon, before an abrupt change later this
afternoon into this evening. Another strong surge of cooler/drier
air is pushed down across the local waters later this afternoon,
with winds rapidly increasing to 25 to 30 knots around or shortly
after 1 PM. The highest wind speeds will be from approximately 7 PM
through 1 AM with sustained winds ranging from 30 to 35 knots and
gusts of 35 to 40 knots (locally higher). As a result, Gale Warnings
are in effect for all waters starting at 1 PM/18 UTC this afternoon
and continuing into tonight or Saturday morning. Winds begin to
gradually diminish late tonight through Saturday morning as high
pressure starts to build back into the area and the pressure
gradient begins to relax. Gale Warnings will need to be converted
back to SCAs, with SCA conditions expected to linger through the day
Saturday and likely continuing into a portion of Saturday night.
Calmer conditions then return Sunday into early next week, before
another front potentially crosses the waters Tuesday.

Seas/waves are expected to remain similar to what is currently being
observed through this afternoon. Seas and waves build later this
afternoon into tonight with the surge of wind. Seas will range from
4 to 7 feet and waves 4 to 5 feet (locally 6 feet). Seas diminish
during the day Saturday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ630>634-638.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ635>637.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...HET/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...HET/RMM
MARINE...AJB