285
FXUS61 KAKQ 021414
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1014 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures expected behind a seasonally strong cold
front. Dry weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal
temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler, below average temperatures continue today.

- Decreasing rain chances as high pressure builds into the area.

Mid-morning sfc analysis indicates that yesterday`s cold front
is well south of the area- off the Carolina coast. High pressure
(1028-1030mb) is building in over the region behind it. The
cooler, drier airmass will remain in place over the area, but
some low- level moisture will help keep some cloud cover,
especially across the south. As the front moves further away,
clouds should part more by the afternoon. The moisture will
remain the highest in the SE, which could allow for some light
precip, but with weak instability precip chances are low. This
airmass will allow below average high temps today near 80F and
dewpoints in the lower 60s, causing the day to be very pleasant
for this time of year. NE winds will continue to be gusty at
25-30 mph for the coastal areas and 15-20 mph inland. Overnight,
skies will continue clearing with lows in the lower 60s inland
and upper 60s near the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures continues from Canadian high pressure.

- Decreasing rain chances this weekend and early week as high
  pressure dominates.

The cooler, drier airmass will stay in place over the region as a
strong Canadian high pressure helps filter down cooler air. This
airmass will not get overly modified, which will continue to bring
lower humidity and temperatures to the region. Offshore the Carolina
coast, weak low pressure will move further away from the area,
taking lingering moisture with it. The high temperatures will remain
cooler for this time of year in the lower 80s with Sunday being
slightly cooler than Monday. The dew points will remain in the lower
60s, keeping the pleasant feel for early August. Overnight lows will
be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler below average to seasonable temperatures outlooked through
  late week.

- Mostly dry conditions with returning moisture and increasing
  rain chances by mid week.

The strong high pressure will being to slide offshore Tuesday which
will allow for a more modified airmass. Increasing moisture is
expected by Tuesday as an upper trough that will extend from the
Great Lakes through the SE US brings in deeper atmospheric moisture
to the region from the Gulf. At the same time, guidance is
suggesting that a weak area of low pressure could develop off the
Carolina coast along the stalled frontal boundary. This could
enhance the moisture moving into our area. As the trough moves over
the area, rain chances return mid week. Temperatures will remain at
or below the normal for this time of year with highs in the lower to
mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Saturday...

CIGs have lifted to VFR conditions across all major terminals,
although there is some lower IFR CIGS towards the piedmont. The
northern terminals (RIC/SBY) have seen more cloud clearing with
mostly clear skies at SBY now. The cloud deck will slowly move
further south today and CIGs will rise from low-end VFR by this
afternoon. Strong NE winds will continue at 10-15 kt with gusts up
to 25 kt, especially for terminals near the coastline.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR prevails Saturday night into early
next week as drier air filters in behind the cold front, but NE
winds remain elevated along the coast into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Saturday...

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect all areas today, and for
  much of the region through early Monday.

- High Risk for Rip Currents in effect all beaches today, with a High
  Surf Advisory in effect for the Atlantic coast of Currituck
  NC.

Strong/anomalous sfc high pressure for early August (~1030mb) is
centered across the upper midwest/western Great Lakes, with low
pressure now south of the local area. Strong NE winds prevail
and SCAs remain in effect today for the entire marine area,
with the strongest winds (20-25kt with frequent gusts to 30 kt)
expected across the lower Bay and coastal waters from Cape
Charles south. As is typical in this pattern, all guidance
(NWPS, NBM, Wavewatch) are verifying too low with seas off the
SE VA and NE NC coast, and will be raising a High Surf Advisory
for the NC coast for near-shore waves of 8 ft. Elsewhere, seas
avg 5-7 ft, with waves 3-4 ft in the mid/upper Bay, and 4-5 ft
over the lower Bay and mouth of the Bay.

The sfc high slowly moves east this aftn, with the pressure
gradient expected to weaken a bit, especially over northern
portions of the FA. Winds will likely diminish to 10-15 kt over
the upper Bay and upper rivers, while remaining 15-20kt
elsewhere. SCAs have been extended through Sunday night/Monday
morning for the lower Bay, lower James, Currituck sound, and
coastal waters, but may be able to be dropped late today/tonight
at least for the upper rivers. The SCAs will probably need
further extensions in time for seas at or above 5 ft on the
coastal waters through late Monday (especially southern areas).
The general pattern keeps onshore flow in place through the
week, with strong /anomalous high pressure (>1030 mb) becoming
centered over eastern Canada and New England Tuesday-Thursday.
Expect at least elevated E to NE winds and possibly SCAs for
much of the area.

A High Rip Current risk is in effect for all beaches today, with
6-8ft seas south, and 4-6 ft seas north (where more of a strong
longshore current prevails). A high Rip risk will continue
Sunday over the south, with either Moderate to High risk for the
northern beaches.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 415 AM EDT Saturday...

Tidal anomalies early this morning average around 2 ft above
normal over the lower Bay, and ~1.5 above normal across the
northern Neck along the western shore of the Bay and southern
shore of the Potomac. This is due to the elevated NE wind,
elevated seas, and 2 successive flood tides at the mouth of the
bay (with no ebbing in between). Expect anomalies to continue
to rise over the next 24-36 hours as NE winds persist and seas
build a bit more across the SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. Also,
the CBOFS is forecasting successive flood tides with no ebbing
through this evening. Given current trends, will be raising
a round of Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements for expected
minor tidal flooding during the high tide later this aftn and
evening. The highest chc of minor flooding is from Lewisetta to
Tappahannock along the tidal Potomac/Rappahannock Rivers as
well as the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore. Statements and/or
advisories may also be needed over the lower Bay and tidal James
River. It is rare to see more than 3 successive flood tides
without an ebbing at the mouth of the Bay so with this in mind,
moderate flooding is unlikely and would anticipate departures to
peak with the high tide later today/tonight. Water levels
should fall a bit later this weekend as NE winds/seas subside a
bit, though nuisance to low end minor flooding will be possible
again Sunday aftn/evening with the higher of the two astronomical
tides.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Sunday for MDZ021>023.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight
     EDT tonight for VAZ075-077-078-085-086.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT
     Sunday for VAZ076-083-518-520>522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for VAZ089-090-093-524.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT
     this evening for VAZ099.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ638.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HET/KMC
NEAR TERM...AC/LKB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...KMC/SW
MARINE...HET/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...