505
FXUS61 KAKQ 250844
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
344 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Southeast today with dry and mild
weather. A cold front crosses the region early Tuesday with
scattered showers possible. Widespread rain is expected by
Thanksgiving as low pressure moves over the region. Much colder
weather arrives behind that system for this weekend into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages...

- Cool with patchy frost and fog possible this morning.

- Mild today.

- Scattered showers are possible late tonight in the Piedmont.

High pressure was centered over FL early this morning with mostly
clear skies across the area outside of some cirrus across the N.
Clear skies and light winds have allowed temps to drop into the mid-
upper 30s inland with patches of low-mid 40s where winds have not
become calm and along the coast. A few of the typically cooler spots
may drop below freezing with lows in the low-mid 30s inland and
lower 40s along the coast. As such, frost is again possible.
However, the frost/freeze program ends today for these areas so will
refrain from issuing any additional frost/freeze headlines.
Additionally, patchy fog is possible across interior SE VA/NE NC
mainly early this morning.

Mostly sunny and mild today with highs in the 60s (most in the mid-
upper 60s) with a few locations perhaps reaching 70F. Clouds build
tonight with lows in the mid-upper 40s inland around 50F along the
coast. Lows tonight will likely be reached early before the cloud
cover and moisture advection ramps up ahead of an approaching
cold front. Expect dew points to rise into the lower 50s SW and
upper 40s NE by late tonight with a line of scattered showers
beginning to move into the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages...

- Mild Tuesday with cooler weather arriving Tuesday night.

- Scattered showers are possible early Tuesday.

Low pressure occludes as it moves NE into Canada on Tue. Meanwhile,
the trailing cold front moves from W to E across the FA early on
Tue. Ahead of the front, dew points rise into the mid 50s. This
combined with the forcing from the cold front should be sufficient
for a broken line of showers to develop ahead of the cold front and
move across the FA. 00z CAMs are in good agreement with this
solution and match the EURO. As such, have increased PoPs to 40-50%
with the highest chance across the Eastern Shore. Any showers
quickly taper off from W to E by early Tue afternoon behind the
front as much drier air moves in. Clearing is also expected by Tue
afternoon with enough downsloping for temps to rise into the
mid-upper 60s behind the cold front.

The cool surge lags behind with temps falling below freezing inland
(due to clear skies and calm winds) and in the mid 30s to lower 40s
closer to the coast Tue night (due to light winds). Dry weather
returns for Wed with highs in the mid 50s N to lower 60s S. Clouds
increase Wed afternoon into Wed night ahead of a developing area of
low pressure. Additionally, some light rain begins to move into W
portions of the FA by late Wed night/early Thu morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages...

- Confidence has increased in widespread rain arriving on
  Thanksgiving.

- Much colder temperatures move in next weekend.

Confidence has increased in an area of low pressure tracking across
the Appalachians Wed night into Thu before a secondary low develops
and becomes the dominant low along the New England coastline on Thu.
As such, rain chances have increased with the EPS and GEFS showing
probabilities for at least 0.1" around 100%. The mean QPF from
the GEFS was 0.5-0.6" with 0.25-0.45" on the EPS. These
differences are largely due to the EPS having the low tracking
farther to the N with more showers as opposed to stratiform rain
across the area. Nevertheless, confidence is still high in rain
arriving on Thu with the exact totals and timing still
uncertain. Therefore, have kept NBM PoPs which show rain chances
increasing to 75-85% early on Thu with PoPs decreasing from W
to E by Thu afternoon as the low moves farther away. Will note
that timing and track discrepancies will have an impact on how
long the rain lingers into the day on Thu. For now, have 30-40%
PoPs NW to 50-60% PoPs SE by Thu evening. Any rain moves
offshore by Thu night into Fri morning with dry weather expected
on Fri into early next week.

Confidence in highs on Thu continues to be low until models can come
into a better agreement on the exact track of the low. For now, have
highs in the mid 50s NW to the upper 60s to around 70F SE. A very
cold airmass arrives behind this system for this weekend into early
next week...a fitting start to the month of December. Highs in the
40s are possible Sat and Sun and perhaps upper 30s across the NW on
Mon. More impactful will be the lows. Widespread lows in the 20s
(mid 20s for most) are possible Fri and Sat nights with lower 20s
possible inland on Sun night. Below freezing temps are possible all
the way to the coast. This cold airmass looks to persist into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 AM EST Monday...

High pressure centered S of the area will keep dry and VFR conditions
in place through the day. Skies remain mostly clear outside of
occasional cirrus. Light and variable winds overnight become S
~5-7 kt by the afternoon. Will note that some patchy fog is
possible early this morning across inland portions of SE VA/NE
NC. However, the fog should remain away from local terminals.

A cold front moves through early Tuesday, bringing a low chance
for showers, mainly from RIC to SBY. Low pressure will bring a
higher chance for rain and degraded flight conditions by
Thanksgiving Day. Dry and VFR conditions return by Friday as
high pressure builds in from the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions are expected today with high pressure over
  the area.

- There will be a brief potential for marginal SCA conditions Tuesday
  morning and again Tuesday night.

- A stronger frontal system approaches late in the week, leading
  to the potential for a prolonged period of elevated
  winds/seas.

Early this morning, ~1020 mb high pressure is centered west of the
waters. Winds are averaging 5 to 10 knots out of the NW. Seas are
running around 1 to 2 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 1
foot. Sub-SCA/benign marine conditions continue through today with
high pressure remaining in control of the local weather pattern.
Winds become light and variable by mid morning and become southerly
this afternoon into this evening.

Winds become S to SW and increase tonight ahead of a cold front.
Wind speeds average 10 to 15 knots across the Chesapeake Bay and 15
to 20 knots over the coastal waters tonight. There will be a brief
window of potential SCA winds around ~15z Tuesday morning with the
frontal passage, however overall local wind probs remain low. Winds
become W to NW behind the front, with another potential for marginal
SCA conditions Tuesday evening into the first part of Tuesday night,
mainly across the northern Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal
waters. Benign conditions return Wednesday, before a stronger cold
front approaches and crosses the waters on Thursday. SCA conditions
are likely beginning midday Thursday and persisting into at least
the first part of Saturday as shots of cooler/drier air filter into
the region. There are also some low-end Gale probs Thursday night
into early Friday (mainly out 20 nm) which will we need to keep an
eye on as we get closer in time.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB