321
FXUS61 KAKQ 241914
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temps and dry weather prevails for for the
rest of the day and most of Sunday as high pressure remains in
place. An unsettled weather pattern returns Sunday night through
the rest of the week with multiple opportunities for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool weather continues with partly cloudy to most
  clear skies.

GOES Visible is depicting partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. The
cloud cover is a mix of low/mid-level cumulus and upper level cirrus
moving in from the NW. Temperatures have increased into the lower to
mid 70s, which is still a few degrees cooler than normal but very
pleasant for late May especially when combined with dew points in
the low to mid 40s. At the surface, high pressure resides across the
region and a low pressure system is located northeast of Maine. The
gradient between these two features has led to occasional gusty NW
winds throughout the day. The cold front that moved through a few
days ago is well to our south. The drier airmass with PW values of
0.60" of less that moved in behind the front is residing across the
region, which has lead to a dry day. Aloft, an expansive upper low
remains across the Northeast. With cloud cover expected to diminish
some overnight and winds diminishing over land after sunset, another
round of radiational cooling is possible tonight. Temperatures are
forecast to drop into the mid to upper 40s inland and low to mid 50s
closer to the coast, so chilly night for late May is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and pleasant conditions through Sunday afternoon, with
  increasing clouds and chances for showers Sunday night.

- Below normal temps for Monday and mostly dry by the afternoon.

Sunday morning will feature high pressure and generally dry, benign
conditions. Temperatures will continue to be a few degrees below
normal, with highs in the lower to mid 70s (mid to upper 70s in SE
VA/NE NC) in the forecast. A stationary boundary that is currently
located well to our south with gradually start to lift northwards
Sunday which will bring higher atmospheric moisture back to the area
by Sunday night. At around the same time, a weak shortwave will move
across the area which will work in tandem with the increased
moisture to help initiate scattered to numerous showers across the
local area, with the highest rain chances being realized across the
southern portion of our area. Instability will remain south of our
area, so this event will likely not produce much in the way of
thunder. Without many heavier embedded showers and thunderstorms,
rainfall totals will remain below 0.75" for all of the area, with
most of the communities NW of Richmond and in the MD counties of the
Eastern Shore expected to see around a tenth of an inch of rainfall
or less. Most of the rain is forecast to fall overnight Sunday night
and Monday morning, so Monday afternoon will see a reprieve from
rainfall as high pressure builds back in.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather in the long term forecast as multiple systems
  approach the region.

Drier conditions will extend into Tuesday morning. Thereafter, high
pressure will shift offshore and rain chances will start to increase
from west to east ahead of an area of low pressure approaching from
the southwest. With increased cloud cover and rain starting across
the Piedmont during peak heating hours, temperatures will remain in
the upper 60s to low 70s during the day on Tuesday. Similar to
Sunday night, instability will generally remain south and west of
the area, so thunder chances on Tuesday afternoon through early
Wednesday morning will remain low as of now. Have kept slight chance
thunder in the forecast for Wed/Wed. night, as we cannot rule out a
few rumbles of thunder. There remains some disagreement between
models as to how fast the low moves offshore. Showers could linger
for a longer period of time if a slower motion occurs, while
conditions could briefly dry out Thursday with a faster motion. As
of now, have kept generally slight chance to low end chance PoPs
Thursday through the weekend to account for this uncertainty, and
for the possibility of another cold frontal passage by the end of
the week.

Temperatures will finally start to moderate and return back to near
normal Thursday and Friday. Highs are forecast to be in the upper
70s to lower 80s, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 133 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all
terminals. Occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kts (20 to 25 kts at
SBY) will diminish later this evening, becoming light and
variable overnight. Cloud cover will briefly increase this
afternoon, but it will not impact flight conditions. Rain will
start to enter the western part of the forecast area tomorrow
afternoon, but likely will not reach any of the terminals by
18Z, so have not included showers in the TAFs.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions continue through Sunday
morning. A better chance of showers and degraded flight
conditions return later Sunday/Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...

- Elevated NE winds are expected Monday.

- SCAs are likely across much of the region late Tuesday-Wednesday
  with elevated E-SE winds.

Weak high pressure is building in from the W this aftn. The
wind is primarily W to NW 5-10kt. Seas are mainly 2-3ft, with waves
approximately 2ft in the Ches. Bay. A weak cold front drops across
the coast tonight with the wind becoming N to NNE later tonight into
early Sunday morning, but remaining less than 15kt. Low pressure
passes by S of the local waters Monday, as high pressure builds in
from the NW. A 3-6 hr period of marginal SCA conditions are possible
across the lower Bay with an elevated NE wind, though confidence is
low. The wind diminishes Monday night/early Tuesday as the high
settles off the northern mid-Atlantic coast. with the next
approaching system mid- week. Low pressure tracks ENE through the OH
Valley or lower Lakes Tue night/Wed, with secondary sfc low
developing along the SE US coast. SCA conditions are likely by Wed
for at least the Bay and Ocean for increasing E-SE winds and seas
building to 4-6 ft, with waves 3-4 ft into the lower Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AC
NEAR TERM...AC/NB
SHORT TERM...AC/NB
LONG TERM...AC/NB
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...AJZ/LKB