255
FXUS61 KAKQ 020638
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
238 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below
average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front
approaches Thursday into Friday with slightly warmer temperatures
and a chance for showers. A stronger cold front crosses the area
late Saturday into Saturday night. Cooler and drier weather
returns Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Another pleasant today with high temperatures in the mid 70s to
around 80.

- An isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the
bay/coast today.


Early this morning, ~1025 mb high pressure is centered over interior
New England, ridging south into the local area. Deep troughing
remains over the eastern CONUS, with an upper low positioned near
the Mason-Dixon line. Skies are mostly clear for a majority of the
area, though pockets of stratocumulus have started moving onshore
closer to the coast. Temperatures are generally in the 50s, with mid
to upper 60s along the immediate coast. Temperatures fall back into
the low-mid 50s inland (some pockets of upper 40s in the typically
cooler spots) and low-mid 60s closer to the coast.

Still expecting another pleasant day today, but a slightly more
moist airmass tries to push inland from the ocean (though likely
struggles to get much farther west than the bay). In addition, an
upper low will remain centered to our north today. Today will be
similar temperature-wise to what we saw yesterday (mid 70s to
around 80) but we will see more cloud cover, especially closer to
the coast. In addition, cannot rule out a stray shower (or sprinkle)
near the bay/coast though CAMs have backed off somewhat from earlier
runs. PoPs remain below 15% today as a result. Precip chances drop
to near zero by sunset. Not quite as cool tonight with lows
generally in the low 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A warming trend is expected Wednesday into Thursday as high
pressure moves offshore and a cold front approaches from the NW.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible Thursday afternoon-
evening, mainly across north and northwest portions of the area.

We begin to see a warming trend on Wednesday as high pressure
gradually shifts offshore and winds take on a southerly component.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies Wednesday with high temperatures in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows inch upward as well with most
locations seeing upper 50s to low 60s. Strong low pressure over the
Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday. This
feature could help trigger showers/storms during the afternoon-
evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less further SE) as
the low level flow increases out of the south. This however is not
expected to be a significant rain maker by any means with guidance
continuing to back off on QPF (~0.15" at most). Noticeably warmer on
Thursday with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s on the Eastern Shore)
with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the
low and mid 60s area wide. The front washes out over the area
Thursday night, with winds expected to remain S-SW. Lows on Thursday
night will remain mild, generally in the low 60s to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with
  highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

- There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Cooler/drier weather returns by Sunday/Monday.

Warm on Friday with high pressure centered offshore and southerly
winds ahead of the next cold front. Highs on Friday will range from
the mid 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. The
front approaches and crosses the area later Saturday into Saturday
night. Saturday will be the warmest day of the period, with highs
ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Deep moisture looks to be
lacking with this front as well, but there is a 20-30% chance for
showers/storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Cooler/drier weather
returns Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Similar
conditions are expected into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions to start off the 06z/02 TAF period at all sites.
MVFR stratocumulus has started to develop near the coast and
will slowly spread inland now through sunrise. Biggest question
is how thick this stratocumulus layer will be, for now went with
SCT coverage at SBY/ORF/PHF/ECG, though localized areas of BKN
are possible. After sunrise, today will be similar to yesterday (Monday)
with SCT-BKN cumulus from late morning-early evening. CIGs will
hover around MVFR throughout the day, especially at
closer to the coast. Cannot rule out a stray shower this
morning into this afternoon at SBY/ORF/PHF, but overall
confidence is low. Light NE winds early this morning, increasing
to around 8 to 12 knots later this morning into this afternoon.


Outlook: VFR/dry from Tue night-Thu AM. There is a chc for
isolated showers/tstms Thu evening-Thu night (highest PoPs at
RIC/SBY).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for southern portions of
the coastal waters today.

- A period of elevated southerly winds is possible late Thursday
afternoon  into early Thursday night across the Chesapeake Bay and
northern coastal waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible.

- A High Risk for rip currents continues into Tuesday across the
southern  beaches with a Moderate Risk across the northern beaches.

Onshore flow continues today with high pressure anchored N of the
forecast area and ridging down into the Mid Atlantic. Latest obs
reflect easterly winds around 10kt with gusts around 15kt. Seas off
of the Eastern Shore have diminished to ~4ft, so the SCA for these
zones was allowed to expire. SCAs remain in place for the seas off
of Virginia Beach and Currituck since seas are still sitting around
5ft. ENE flow is expected through the day today. Will likely see a
brief uptick in the winds around sunrise with sustained winds around
15kt, then settling around 10kt again in the afternoon. Seas in the
southern waters gradually drop below 5ft through the day. The SCA
off of Virginia Beach is set to expire early this morning, then the
NC waters by this evening.

High pressure remains in place through Wednesday. Winds remain light
through early Thursday before becoming SE/S and increasing to 15-20
kt with gusts up to 25 kt late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night across mainly the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters ahead
of an approaching cold front. Latest wind probs for 18kt sustained
are ~75% in the bay and 90-100% in the northern coastal waters.
Should these trends hold, SCAs will be needed for at least the bay
Thursday night. Confidence in SCA conditions over the
rivers/Currituck Sound is lower than over the Ches Bay. Otherwise,
winds remain generally sub-SCA through next weekend with a brief S
surge to 15- 20 kt possible Fri evening. A series of weak cold
fronts approach the local waters late this week into this weekend
with the strongest front crossing the local waters Saturday night.

Waves subside to 1-2 ft today with 2-3 ft at the mouth of the Ches
Bay. Meanwhile, seas subside to ~4 ft Tue (apart from 4-5 ft across
the NC coastal waters), likely remaining sub- SCA through next
weekend.

The rip current risk remains High for the southern beaches through
Wed with a Moderate rip current risk across the northern beaches.
Will note that the high rip current risk across the southern beaches
on Wednesday is more marginal than today. Otherwise, a Moderate rip
current risk is expected across all area beaches on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on
record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average
Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below:

- RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992.
- SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008.
- ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/ERI
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC
CLIMATE...