815
FXUS61 KAKQ 072025
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
425 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain continues this evening, with a few thunderstorms
continuing across far southeast Virginia and northeast North
Carolina. The rain gradually ends prior to sunrise Tuesday, with
dry but cool temperatures expected. High pressure settles in
Tuesday night and Wednesday, with below freezing temperatures
likely Tuesday night away from the immediate coast. Seasonable
temperatures are expected late in the week, with another chance
for showers on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- SVR Tstm Watch remains in effect for VA Beach and portions of
  NE NC. The Watch has been cancelled for Chesapeake and
  Northampton NC, with the remaining areas likely to be
  cancelled prior to the 10 PM endtime.

- There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall through this
  evening across southern portions of the FA.

Latest sfc analysis shows the frontal boundary draped from near
South Hill to Hampton Roads. A SVR Tstm Watch is in effect
(mainly for damaging winds), across far SE VA and NE NC through
10 PM. However, given latest radar trends, anticipate being able
to cancel the watch soon in VA Beach and before 10 PM for most
of NE NC as the front slowly drops south this evening, with any
lingering instability waning except S of the boundary.
Temperatures range from the mid 80s along the Albemarle sound,
to the mid/upper 40s across the MD eastern shore and northern
piedmont (with a sharp drop along the boundary).

Aloft, a SW to WSW flow will stay in place as the upper trough
axis lags well to the W (across the lower OH/TN Valley). This
will keep transporting deep moisture from the Gulf into the
local area through the evening, lingering until ~3AM across the
SE zones. In addition, an upper level jet (~180 kt at 250 mb),
extends from northern New England back to the SW across the OH
Valley, which will keep much of the local area in the favorable
RRQ upper divergent zone. Plenty of moisture is in place to
support moderate to heavy rain given PWATs analyzed at 1.5-1.6"
roughly along the sfc boundary. All of these features will keep
the threat for moderate to locally heavy rain going across much
of the area even as the SVR threat rapidly diminishes. Rainfall
amounts through 3PM have averaged near 1" across VA and MD, with
additional amounts of 0.50-1.00" expected through tonight. In
far SE VA and NE NC, areal QPF has been a little less, but an
additional 1.00" to 1.50" is possible before ending early
Tuesday morning (with locally higher amounts possible).

Expect the usual issues in urban and poor drainage/flood-prone
and WPC has much of the area (south of a Farmville- Richmond-
Melfa line) in a Day 1 Marginal ERO.

Cold 1028+mb high pressure and an UL trough will build east
late tonight, nudging the front off the SE VA/NE NC coast by
Tuesday morning. A secondary front will bring gusty NNW winds
late. Drying out with some partial clearing late. Lows late
tonight/Tues morning will be in the mid 30 in the NW, and mainly
40-45F elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Dry conditions prevail Tuesday through Wednesday.

- A Freeze Watch has been issued for much of the FA for Tue
  night/Wed AM away from the coast. (Note the far NW is not yet
  active in the Frost/Freeze Program so despite a hard freeze no
  Headlines will be issued there).

Chilly highs on Tues average 10-15 deg F below normal, ranging
through the 50s (cooler N, warmer S). Atlantic coastal portions
of the MD Eastern Shore may even stay in the upper 40s. Gusts up
to 35 mph expected near the coast, 20-30mph inland. Diminishing
winds, and the incoming cold, dry airmass will make for an
excellent radiating night Tuesday night. Freeze Warnings are in
effect for much of the (inland) area that is active in the
frost program (i.e. all but the far NW corner of the CWA from
Prince Edward northeast to Caroline County). Lows in the mid-
upper 20s expected away from the immediate coast to low- mid 30s
coastal areas. Milder but still on the cool side Wed, with
highs in the mid- upper 50s under a partly to mostly sunny sky.
Clouds increase ahead of the next system Thursday, with chc PoPs
moving into the NW by late morning/aftn. Milder with highs in
the 60s (near 70F SE).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Another chance for rain comes on Friday into Saturday as
  another front moves through the forecast area.

- Temperatures will be seasonable for the upcoming weekend into
  early next week.

Chances for rain increase Thu night and continue into Friday.
Uncertainty increases as the global models diverge for the
weekend period. While there is decent alignment about a deep sfc
trough sliding over the east coast, there is disagreement
regarding the formation of a sfc low in the vicinity of the FA.
Where the prospective low tracks, the timing, and the strength
of the system will ultimately decide precip chances and winds.
The general consensus is for chc PoPs Thu night, with rain
likely Friday. Temps should generally be in the 60s regardless,
with the models all drying us out by Sunday, with a warming
trend into Monday as a strong ridge over the plains slowly
building eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

A cold front will continue to drop south this evening. This
will result in a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain
through this evening, with lower VSBYs in heavier showers.
All terminals save for ORF/ECG will likely stay IFR through the
remainder of the period, with ORF dropping to IFR shortly, and
ECG into IFR this evening. Thunder will be possible at ECG
through this evening. Winds become northerly all areas by later
evening, with a gusty NNW wind expected starting after ~06Z.
Gusts Tue will avg 20-25KT, with ~30KT at SBY.

Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday ahead of
another approaching front late this week. Flight restrictions
are likely Friday in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Strong SCA conditions are expected Tuesday/Tuesday night over
  all zones, with a brief period of gale force gusts possible,
  especially across the north.

A cold front is slowly dropping south across southern portions of
the local waters this afternoon. N of the boundary, winds are
generally N/NE at 10-15kt. S of the boundary, SW winds are a little
higher at 15-20kt. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front are bringing briefly elevated gusts and
Special Marine Warnings are being issued as necessary. The strongest
storms will impacts southern coastal waters and the Currituck Sound
this afternoon. The initial front will exit the forecast area this
evening. Behind it, a brief surge of NW winds up to around 15kt is
expected. This initial surge has trended a little stronger with
today`s guidance, so went ahead and extended the SCA for the lower
bay to start it earlier to cover it (now starting at 7pm). Also
started the SCA for the Currituck Sound earlier (now in effect),
since winds ahead of the front over-performed a bit near the sound.
There will likely be a short lull in the winds over the sound this
evening before the main surge of NW kicks in. Later this
evening/tonight, a secondary cold front will push through the
region. Strong CAA behind the front will bring another surge of NW
winds to local waters late tonight through tomorrow morning. These
winds increase to about 25kt with gusts to 30kt across most waters
by 12z Tues (~20kt in the rivers/sound). May see an hour or two of
gusts to around 35kt in the upper bay and MD coastal waters early
tomorrow morning.

Winds diminish some to 15-20kt later in the morning Tues as high
pressure starts to build in. The NW winds will remain in this range
until Tues night/Wed morning when high pressure slides in overhead.
Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Wed morning through Thursday
morning. Additional SCAs may be needed Thurs when another frontal
system impacts the region.

Seas are 3-5ft this afternoon and will increase to 5-6ft late
tonight/tomorrow morning. Waves in the bay are about 2ft and will
increase to 3-4ft tonight. Waves in the river/sound will be ~2ft.
Waves diminish to 2-3ft tomorrow afternoon as seas diminish to ~4ft.
Seas then gradually drop to 2-3ft by Wed evening. Waves will be 1-
2ft Wed through Wed evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for MDZ021>025.
NC...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for NCZ012>014-030.
VA...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for VAZ065>068-075>085-087>090-092-093-096-097-099-
     512>523.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-
     654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...AC