692
FXUS61 KAKQ 010643
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
243 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions expected this week
peaking with heat indices near 105 Wed and Thurs. Isolated storms
possible, but mostly dry until late this week.

2) Shower/storm chances increase late week as a
cold front approaches. Seasonable temps forecast behind the
front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 240 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions expected this week
peaking with heat indices near 105 Wed and Thurs. Isolated storms
possible, but mostly dry until late this week.

The late summer heat wave is on track; temperatures in the upper 90s
to around 100 are still expected over the next several days. A
strong UL ridge continues to build over the gulf and up to the Great
Lakes. This ridge will then translate east through the end of the
week, allowing temperatures to increase more. Highs will be in the
mid 90s west of the bay and low 90s on the Eastern Shore. Heat
indices will climb into the 100-103F range this afternoon. Highs
tomorrow will be in the upper 90s for most and even touching 100 in
the southwest. A weak backdoor cold front pushing into the NE
complicates the temperature forecast for the Eastern Shore and
perhaps the Northern Neck. Onshore flow during the afternoon could
keep temps a bit cooler by comparison with highs around 90.
Widespread heat indices around 105F west of the bay Wed are
forecast. Heat Advisories appear likely. Similar conditions are
expected for Thurs with advisories once again likely. The heat
potentially continues Friday, depending on the timing of a cold
front. Highest confidence in advisory conditions is therefore
across southern counties.

Regarding thunderstorm chances, isolated convection is expected both
today and tomorrow. The 00z CAMs as a whole are not all that excited
about either day, but kept in the slight chance in the NE today and
for most of the area tomorrow. Some of the CAMs and global models to
indicate some stronger convection, perhaps in the form of linear
segments, to the north of the local FA. It is not outside the realm
of possibility that those storms dive south into the local area.
Northwest flow aloft and strong instability means that any storms
that do form will have the potential for strong winds and large
hail. SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk for NE portions of the
area today and tomorrow. Tomorrow`s slight risk does clip the MD
Eastern Shore, but this would be highly dependent on the
aforementioned stronger storms to the north diving south.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower/storm chances increase late week as a
cold front approaches. Seasonable temps forecast behind the front.

The strong ridge aloft starts to break down/flatten late in the
week. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front will approach and pass through the
area sometime Friday- likely late. Storms will be possible ahead of
it Thurs evening. Chances continue Friday afternoon as the front
pushes south. NW flow will remain place aloft and progressively
strengthen as the associated trough drops southward along the NE/Mid-
Atlantic coast. The combination of instability and this increasing
flow (and shear) suggests any storms could be strong-severe. SPC has
outlooked areas N of the NC/VA border in a severe risk for Thursday
and Friday.

We should see a little bit of relief from the heat over the weekend,
but still seasonably warm with highs in the low 80s. Storm chances
decrease as strong high pressure builds in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail for the 06z/01 TAF period. May see some
brief MVFR CIGs at SBY early, but confidence is fairly low, so
kept the lower clouds SCT. There is a chance of isolated
afternoon/evening storms. Decided to keep mention of precip out
of the TAFs since coverage will likely be low and therefore
confidence in terminal impacts is low. Winds will generally be
light and out of the WSW, but did add a group for afternoon
sea-breeze at ORF.

Outlook: Predominately dry/VFR conditions through Wednesday.
Shower and storm chances begin to increase Thursday
afternoon/evening (and especially Friday) at all terminals ahead
of the next cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 205 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

-High pressure remains centered offshore through much of the
 week leading to sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions. A cold
 front approaches the waters late in the week and may bring
 elevated winds.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered offshore and inland,
maintaining benign marine conditions across all waters. Winds are
generally out of the S-SW, averaging ~10 knots. Seas are running
around 2 and waves in the Chesapeake Bay around 1 foot. Similar
wind speeds and directions are anticipated through much of this
afternoon into the early evening.

By this evening, a cold front buckles SW, eventually approaching the
far NE waters early Wednesday morning. S-SW winds increase ahead of
the front to 10 to 15 knots (highest coastal waters), but should
still remain sub-SCA. In addition, scattered thunderstorms
(potentially severe) may impact the northern waters this evening
into the first part of the night as the front drops south. The front
drops south to roughly the VA/NC border through the day Wednesday
before lifting back to the north as a warm front Wednesday night
into Thursday. In the wake of the front, winds turn around to the N-
NE ~10 knots. A cold front will approach the region Thursday into
Friday with strengthening flow ahead of and (especially) behind the
boundary this weekend. This could bring elevated winds and the next
potential SCA conditions. Shower and storm chances will ramp up
during the late week period ahead of the front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB/KMC