531
FXUS61 KAKQ 301850
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather will continue to persist through
tomorrow, before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a
seasonally strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are
likely tomorrow and Friday with the cold front passage. Dry
weather with lower humidity and cooler than normal temperatures
are expected for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and Humid conditions will prevail through tomorrow.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
tomorrow afternoon.

Afternoon weather analysis shows primarily zonal flow across the
area. While at the surface high pressure continues to remain overhead
continuing to bring in the hot and humid airmass. Temperatures this
afternoon are in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast.
Dew points have remained steady in the lower to middle 70s
throughout this afternoon making the Heat Index values to be between
100 and 104. Sky cover remains partly clear as fair weather cumulus
have developed across the area. Showers and storms have developed
across the higher terrain but should remain confines just to the
west of the CWA. There is a slight chance that a shower may come off
the high terrain to the far NW continues later this afternoon and
evening. As the sun sets this evening, the sky`s will begin to clear
as the cumulus deteriorate due to the loss of daytime heating. The
warm and muggy conditions will continue through the night. Low
temperatures will be in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s along
the coastline.

For tomorrow, primarily zonal flow will be across the area with a
weak shortwave trough moving through in the afternoon. At the
surface, a cold front will be approaching the area before stalling
just to the north of the CWA. Ahead of the front a hot and humid
airmass will be building into place with highs in the lower 90s and
dew points in the lower to middle 70s. This will cause Heat Index
values again to be between 100 and 104 across the area just shy of
Heat Advisory criteria. Despite not having a Heat Advisory it will
still be hot and humid outside. In addition to the heat there is a
chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Model guidance
continues to be inconsistent on the timing of showers and
thunderstorms.  As of this forecast update the best timing will be
in the afternoon to evening hours of tomorrow. Some of these showers
and storms maybe severe as ML cape values will be between 1500 and
2000 J/kg and strong lower-level lapse rates will be in place.
However, there will be weak bulk shear of 25kt (normal in this
summertime pattern) that will help keep the severity of storms down.
The main threat with these storms will be strong winds and heavy
rainfall. This heavy rain fall could potentially cause a risk of
localized flash flooding.At this time a flood watch has not been
issued due to the high flash flood guidance across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Cold front moves across the area leading to cooler temperatures in
the north and warmer temperatures in the south.

-Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday but
decrease by Saturday.

By Friday high pressure will be moving out of Canada and helping to
reinforce the cold front that will eventually push through the area.
By the afternoon of Friday the cold front will be over the area
causing a strong temperature gradient. Across the north high
temperatures will be in the middle to lower 80s. While to the south
the airmass will be warmer and more humid with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Heat Index values will be approaching 100 south of
the front primarily in NE NC. The chances of showers and
thunderstorms will also continue on Friday. However, it is yet truly
unclear on where these showers and thunderstorms will initiate due
to two factors. Where the frontal boundary is and where a potential
outflow boundary from the previous night will be located.
Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms are expected in the
afternoon/evening of Friday. Saturday the front should be through
the area and the chances of showers and storms will have diminished.
The overall weather conditions for Saturday look to be promising
especially for this time of year. Highs will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s under partly
cloudy skies.  There will also be breezy conditions Saturday
especially along the coast with with onshore winds gusting to 25 to
30 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- More pleasant weather is expected to continue through the early
portions of next week.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase by early next week.

Latest ensemble guidance is in decent agreement through the end of
the weekend and into early next week. Weak troughing aloft will be
centered over portions of the Mississippi and Ohio River valley that
will bring in cooler temperatures through much of the extended
forecast period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the
area Sunday through Monday bringing dry conditions with dews in the
lower to middle 60s. High temperatures will be in the lower to
middle 80s. This will be some much needed relief from the heat and
humidity. However, temperatures and the humidity begin to gradually
increase Tuesday and beyond with upper ridging becoming slightly
more amplified. Cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers or
storms, especially later in the period, with a coastal trough
lingering.&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions persist through most of the 18z TAF period. One
exception could come from early morning fog but most guidance
keeps reduced VSBY confined to the Piedmont, away from the TAF
sites. Winds generally below 10 kt today, highly variable near
the coast as sea/land breeze influences dominate. SCT cumulus
develop again Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.

Outlook: Scattered to numerous showers and storms move into the
area Thursday afternoon and linger into Friday with with locally
degraded flight conditions and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM EDT Wednesday...

- Sub Small Craft conditions persist today and Thursday.

- Widespread SCA conditions expected Friday into the weekend as a
  strong cold front crosses the region.

High pressure remains in control of the local weather this afternoon
with S and SE winds 5-10 kt. Waves and seas remain nearly flat at
around 1 foot.

Weak synoptic forcing results in some sea/bay breeze enhancement to
the SE winds (10-15 kt) late this afternoon, mainly across the
southern Ches Bay and adjacent Atlantic waters. Southerly flow to
start the day Thursday becomes SE ~15 kt by the afternoon as the
surface cold front approaches the region from the NW. Latest
guidance continues to show a line of stronger convection moving into
the waters by tomorrow evening with locally enhanced
winds/waves/seas in an around thunderstorms. These threats will be
covered by MWS/SMWs as necessary. Guidance suggests the front will
slow its progression through the area Thursday night with a
continued threat for showers and storms, though widespread severe
weather is not expected overnight. Stronger cold advection will lag
the frontal passage by 6-12 hours with winds becoming N and
eventually NE 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Friday night. Strong NE
flow continues with winds 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the Ches
Bay/rivers/Sound and 25-30 kt with a few gust to 35 kt possible for
the Atlantic coastal waters on Saturday. Local wind probabilities
for gusts exceeding 34 kt increase to ~20-30% for the coastal waters
but sustained 34 kt winds or frequent gusts above gale thresholds
are very unlikely this time of year. Will continue to monitor this
period in subsequent forecast, however. Waves increase to 3-5 ft
(highest near the mouth) with seas building to 5-8 ft during this
period. SCA conditions likely persist for the bay and coastal waters
well into Sunday with seas forecast to remain above 5 ft into early
next week.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all area beaches Thursday and
Friday with a Moderate Rip risk expected on Saturday as seas
build.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...RHR