238
FXUS61 KAKQ 180010
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
810 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure prevails off the Southeast coast today bringing
hot and continued humid conditions. A weak cold front drops into
the region Friday and Saturday bringing an increased chance of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 810 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers and storms are possible this evening.

- Heat Advisory was allowed to expire.

Surface low pressure to the north of the area slowly drags a weak
cold front towards the region, extending from upstate NY to central
IL. Aloft, a shortwave trough moves through the area today. The
moist airmass is still in place but with the loss of day time
heating temperatures as of 8pm middle to upper 80s. Heat Index
values have also dropped below 105 across the warned areas and
the Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire. The chances for
showers and storms continue to dwindle as a cap has built into
the area preventing storm initiation. Pops have been lowed to
20% through the evening as the short wave continues to approach
the area. This forcing could be enough to help initiate a storm
late this evening. Rain chances will decrease into tonight, but
remaining humid, along with temps in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisories have been issued for NE NC as heat indices of 105
  to 109 are expected.

- Flood Watches have been issued along and south of the I-64 corridor
  as scattered to numerous showers and storms with locally
  heavy rainfall are expected Friday afternoon into early
  Saturday morning.

- Additional showers and storms are possible Saturday along with the
  threat of additional heavy rainfall.

The aforementioned weak cold front will reach into central VA late
Friday before stalling in the area. The milder and drier airmass,
however, will stay to the north of the front, as the moist airmass
continues to dominate. This airmass with PWAT values 2"+ will
interact with the front causing scattered to numerous showers and
storms to develop Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. The
latest HREF probs for 3"/3 hr PMM continues to show a few 30%
contours in the area, with consecutive 70% contours for 1"/3 hr.
With the current flash flood guidance averaging 1-1.5"/hr for flash
flooding to occur, this is the main threat. In conjunction, Flood
Watches have been issued along and south of the I-64 corridor as
locally heavy rainfall of 2-4" could cause flash flooding. A Slight
ERO is forecast across most of the area to account for the heavy
rainfall possibility. There is also slightly better flow aloft with
500 mb showing around 35 kt, which could result in better storm
organization and a marginal threat for damaging winds.

Additionally, Heat Advisories have been issued for NE NC as heat
indices reach up to 105-109 during peak heating on Friday. VA and MD
could see heat indices up to 104.

The front will linger in the area on Saturday as well, providing
additional chances for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. PWATs
will continue to be 2"+ and the Slight ERO continues for most of the
area on Saturday as well. Localized flooding may be possible,
depending on rainfall totals from Friday. Heat indices will likely
reach 105-109 in NE NC on Saturday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Generally seasonal temperatures and humidity late this weekend
  into the middle of next week.

The ridge breaks down Saturday night into Sunday as a trough digs
across the Northeast. EPS/GEFS each retrograde the ridge to the west
early-middle of next week as lower 500mb heights develop over New
England and Atlantic Canada. This may actually push a front through
the area with PW values returning to near seasonal normals with
highs in the 80s. This may allow a break in the heavy precip.
However, the Mid-Atlantic will be in a NW flow regime between the
trough to the NE and the ridge to the SW. Therefore, slight chc to
chc PoPs will continue, highest S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 720 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions continue to prevail at the terminals at this
hour with mainly clear skies across SBY and partly cloudy skies
across the south. Mainly VFR through tonight with a SW wind of
10-12 kt. There is a slight chc of showers/tstms between 0-02z,
but not enough confidence to mention anything in the TAF. PoPs
this evening are generally 15% or less elsewhere.Cloud cover
should increase tonight with high level clouds continuing to
push across the area. By the early morning there could be some
MVFR CIGS due to low level clouds. At this time confidence is
to low to add these flight restrictions to the TAFS.

A cold front settles into the region tomorrow into Saturday
bringing scattered to numerous aftn and evening showers/tstms.
Any showers/tstms will be capable of producing reduced vsby in
heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. Unsettled conditions
continue Sunday and Monday, but chances of aftn/evening
showers/tstms are not as high as Friday and Saturday. Primarily
VFR outside of showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect today for the Chesapeake
  Bay and rivers through this evening.

- Benign marine conditions return Friday through the weekend with
  daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Southwesterly winds remain elevated (15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt)
across the waters this aftn due to the gradient between low pressure
tracking across eastern Canada and high pressure off the SE CONUS
coast. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the bay and
rivers until 7 PM, but have been allowed to expire for the coastal
waters (where the criteria is 25 kt for gusts). SW winds will
average 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt during the first part of tonight,
before decreasing to 10 kt and becoming SW-NW as a weak cold front
crosses part of the marine area. Wind direction on Friday will be
variable w/ sea breezes as that slow-moving front lingers across the
area, but wind speeds will be below 10 kt. The main concern on
Friday is aftn/evening tstms, some of which could be strong. At
least a couple of SMWs will likely be needed, especially across the
southern waters.

S-SW flow returns for the weekend with generally benign/variable
marine conditions expected. Daily shower/storm chances also continue
through the weekend. A stronger cold front potentially crosses the
waters from N-S Sun night or Monday, allowing winds to become N then
NE and increase to 15 kt. NE winds of 10-15 kt are then forecast
through Tue. Even though the gridded forecast doesn`t depict SCA
conditions, can`t completely rule out a period of low-end SCAs
during the Mon/Tue timeframe.

Waves on the Chesapeake Bay of 2-3 ft are expected through this
evening. On the ocean, seas generally stay in the 3-4 ft range
before subsiding to 2-3 ft tonight. 1-2 ft waves and ~2 ft seas
prevail from later Friday into the weekend. A low risk of rip
currents is expected through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 255 PM EDT Thursday...

A Flood Warning remains in effect for the Blackwater river in
Dendron. However, the gauge indicates the river has crested and
will fall below minor flood stage this evening.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
     Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night
     for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night
     for VAZ090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
     Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>083-087>089-509>516.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...HET/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...ERI/HET
MARINE...ERI
HYDROLOGY...