939
FXUS61 KAKQ 080047
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
847 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and dry conditions continue today before a strong
cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. This will bring scattered
showers Wednesday. Much cooler temperatures arrive late this week
behind the cold front. A coastal low may develop off the Southeast
coast this weekend, potentially resulting in rain and breezy
conditions for a portion of the local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered rain showers move into western and northwestern
  portions of the area tonight, progressing south/southeast
  through tomorrow evening.

- Lows tonight in the mid 60s. Highs tomorrow in the 70s.

High pressure has been pushed offshore by an approaching cold front,
which was located over the OH valley as of latest analysis.
Conditions outside are fairly pleasant with temps in the low 80s
under partly sunny skies. It is starting to get a little breezy
as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front with a few
southerly wind gusts up to ~20mph observed.

As the front approaches tonight, will see cloud cover increasing from
NW to SE. Also expecting scattered showers starting tonight in
association with the front. Precip will be generally confined to
northwestern areas through the first part of tonight, then gradually
expanding in coverage and sliding SE late tonight into tomorrow.
Models indicate that precip should be focused mostly on eastern
portions of the area tomorrow morning with showers most widespread
on the Eastern Shore. Scattered showers then shift to the S/SE as
the front starts to move offshore tomorrow afternoon/evening. Could
see a few rumbles of thunder in the SE as well. Regarding QPF, did
see a downward trend for central VA with the 12z models. Now
anticipating 0.1-0.2" or less. The MD Eastern Shore looks to get the
most with QPF values between 0.5-0.75". The 12z HREF did key in on
this area with low end probs for an inch of rain, so could certainly
see some isolated spots of an inch or so. Other eastern counties
have a QPF range of 0.25-0.5". Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s.
Highs tomorrow will be in the low-mid 70s across the north and mid-
upper 70s across the south, as high as the low 80s near the
Albemarle Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Much cooler weather arrives Thursday, with 30s across our NW
counties Thursday night/Friday AM.

Will see clearing skies and gusty north winds behind the front Wed
night into Thurs. Strong high pressure from the NW returns as an UL
trough swings into the Mid-Atlantic. Lows Wed night will be in the
mid to upper 40s N and W of Richmond and ranging through the 50s
elsewhere. Much cooler Thurs with highs only in the mid to upper
60s. Northeast winds will be elevated Thurs afternoon with gusts up
to 30mph at the SE coast, 20-25mph elsewhere. Chilly temps then
expected Thurs night. Lows will be as cold as the upper 30s in the
far NW, ranging through the 40s for other inland areas, and in the
50s in the SE/near the coast. Some of the statistical guidance did
suggest temps as low as the mid 30s in the NW, which cannot be ruled
out given decent radiational cooling conditions. Will need to
keep an eye on this time frame for potential Frost Advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- A coastal low is possible by this weekend and may bring rain and
  breezy conditions to the area.

Cool, dry conditions continue Friday as the center of the strong
high slides through New England and offshore. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 60s again and still a little breezy with onshore winds.
Uncertainty increases going into the weekend as a coastal low is
introduced off the Carolina coast. At this point, there is decent
confidence in the low forming and the general location of formation,
but details on impacts are still fuzzy. There is certainly the
potential for heavy rain, as depicted in the 12z GFS and to a lesser
extent the ECMWF. The Canadian, though, maintains that the low
strays further offshore and takes its rain with it. Have
maintained the NBM solution for the forecast due to uncertainty,
which yields chance PoPs (highest east) starting Saturday
afternoon and continuing into early Monday. Also expecting windy
conditions to develop over the weekend, especially at the
coast. Highs in the 60s continue through the weekend and on
Monday. Lows will generally be in the upper 40s in the piedmont
and in the 50s elsewhere through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail across the terminals this evening with
showers still well to the west of the terminals (ahead of an
approaching cold front). Clouds will thicken and lower from W-E
overnight, with MVFR CIGs possible at RIC/SBY by sunrise. In
addition, showers may impact RIC/SBY/PHF overnight, but VSBYs
will mainly be VFR though some MVFR VSBYs are possible at SBY
late tonight. CIGs lower to MVFR at all terminals by
midday/early aftn as the front approaches, with a brief period
of IFR possible at SBY. Scattered showers will continue across
the area through much of the day with the best chc of VSBY
restrictions being at SBY (where moderate to briefly heavy rain
is possible). The front crosses the terminals from N-S during
the aftn/evening, allowing winds to become N at ~15 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt. There is a 20% chc of a tstm at ORF/ECG
between 17-22z, but not enough confidence to add a PROB30 group
with thunder in the TAFs. Showers end shortly after the FROPA.

Outlook: Skies will clear out in the wake of the front
Wednesday night, with a breezy NNE wind at the coast continuing
into Thursday as a drier airmass moves in. Another period of
sub-VFR CIGs are possible as we head into this weekend as low
pressure develops offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 845 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- A Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all local
  waters.

- A cold front crosses the waters Wednesday afternoon, bringing
  elevated north to northeast winds and building seas.
  Unsettled conditions linger into Friday and Saturday for at
  least the offshore waters and southern Chesapeake Bay.

- Low pressure develops south of the area this weekend. While
  uncertainty remains, dangerous marine conditions likely
  develop later Saturday into early next week with Gale
  conditions likely.

High pressure remains over the western Atlantic, ridging to the
SW into GA and the Carolinas. Southerly winds across the waters
were around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. An upper trough and
cold front were noted over the Midwest. The gradient tightens
this evening ahead of these features with low-end SCA conditions
likely for the northern Ches Bay zone (N Windmill Pt) with
winds generally ~15 kt for areas to the south. Offshore, winds
will gust 20-25 kt over the northern coastal waters for a decent
period tonight, but seas are forecast to stay in the 3-4 ft
range, therefore, no additional headlines have been issued for
the overnight period.

The potent cold front is forecast to drop southward through the
waters Wednesday (likely during the early to mid afternoon hours).
An abrupt shift to the N is expected behind the boundary, along with
a wind surge by the evening as cooler air quickly filters in and
strong high pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes
vicinity. Strong Small Craft Advisory winds continue to be the most
likely scenario with potential for a brief period of gale-force
gusts during the 10PM-2AM period when it appears post-frontal
pressure rises and cold/dry advection will be maximized. Local wind
probs for gusts in excess of 34 kt remain below 20% for late
Wednesday evening but warm local waters and incoming cold/dry air
may allow stronger flow aloft to mix down to the surface. In the
wake of the cold front, a compressed pressure gradient will prevail,
especially for the southern half of the area with anomalously strong
high pressure to our north and lower pressures offshore of the
Carolinas. As such, have issued SCAs for all of the local waters
beginning Wed afternoon (Wed evening across the NC coastal
waters and Currituck Sound) and continuing into Thu afternoon.
Given only a brief (4 to 5 hour) lull in the winds across the
upper Ches Bay from mid morning into early Wed afternoon between
the S/SW winds ahead of the cold front and the N surge behind
the front, have extended the SCA for that zone from tonight
through Thursday afternoon. A reprieve from the wind is possible
for the middle/upper bay and adjacent rivers from late Thursday
into Saturday. Seas are forecast to build to 5-7 ft by
Wednesday night and then 6-9 ft by Thursday.

Forecast uncertainty continues for this weekend. However, there is
agreement across nearly all deterministic and ensemble model
guidance that low pressure develops along the stalled front/coastal
trough Saturday, drifting north or northeast near or just offshore
of our coastline Sunday into Monday. The track and strength of the
low show considerable variation among and within the global
deterministic and ensemble solutions, respectively. The latest GFS
and ECMWF show the low lifting north and strengthening on Sunday and
doing some kind of pirouette near the coast as the low occludes on
Monday. Either of these solutions would result in a prolonged period
of significant marine impacts. The Canadian model continues to keep
the low suppressed well offshore with fewer impacts to the local
waters. Have increased the winds a bit with this forecast but not as
much as the GFS would support. Strong Gale conditions are
increasingly likely during the late Saturday into Monday timeframe
with some potential for Storm conditions if the more aggressive
guidance were to verify. Additionally, seas are forecast to build to
at least 9-13+ ft with waves 6-9 ft near the mouth of the Chesapeake.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday...

No coastal flooding is expected through Wednesday night,
other than nuisance flooding near Bishop`s Head, MD this afternoon
and again tonight. Given the very high astronomical tides combined
with moderately strong NE winds, minor flooding is possible in areas
adjacent to the lower Ches Bay and tidal York/James on Thursday and
Friday. Additional coastal flooding is possible this weekend,
depending on the track and strength of coastal low pressure.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ632-634-636>638-650-652-654-656.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ633-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ635.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RHR/RMM/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...