767
FXUS61 KAKQ 121719
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
119 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through
the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day.
The potential for diurnal thunderstorms will continue early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid inland this afternoon with heat indices in the
  lower 100s.

- Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon with
  locally heavy rain and flash flooding possible.

A surface boundary was located near the Richmond Metro this
afternoon which has served as a focal point for convection. CAMs
have vastly underdone coverage and timing of convection this
afternoon. As such, have increased PoPs across the area to
25-40% (away from the coast) with scattered showers and storms
expected. Will note that these PoPs are above NBM guidance but
may still be too low in spots. Given 3500-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE,
1.6-1.7" PWATs, and very slow storm motions, locally heavy rain
and flash flooding is possible. The near-term greatest flash
flooding threat is the Richmond Metro where a Flash Flood
Warning has been issued given congealing storms over the city.
However, given that it is only 1 PM (as of writing this
discussion) there is plenty of daylight left for additional
storm development with additional flooding possible through this
afternoon. WPC has maintained a Marginal risk for excessive
rainfall across most of the inland areas today. Will note that
CAMs show the potential for a line (or cluster) of storms moving
into the Piedmont this evening. While this may be too late, if
rounds of showers and storms continue into the evening, a
locally higher flash flooding threat would be possible.

Additionally, given the very high instability and DCAPE of
1100-1200 J/kg, a few strong to severe downbursts are possible.
However, given the very weak flow aloft, current thinking is
that most storms should be of the pulse variety. Brief strong
wind gusts are the main threat from water- loaded downdrafts
this afternoon and early evening. SPC has maintained the
western tier of counties in a Marginal Risk of severe.

Otherwise, temps as of 1 PM ranged from the mid 80 to lower 90s
with dew points in the 70s and heat indices in the mid 90s to
lower 100s. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with
maximum heat indices in the lower 100s away from the coast are
expected. Warm and muggy overnight with lows in the 70s. Some
fog and low stratus are possible, especially in areas that see
rainfall during the afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly cooler Sunday with diurnal convection expected to west of
  the weak front that lingers over the eastern third of the area.

- Additional showers and storms are possible Monday as a front
  approaches from the NW.

Greater coverage of showers and storms is expected across the
western half of the area on Sunday as a prefrontal trough sharpens
along the higher terrain to the west. Shear will be modestly higher
Sunday vs today with localized wet microbursts the main severe
weather threat. SPC has included areas generally along and west of I-
95 in a marginal severe risk. Deep moisture lingers over the area
and locally heavy rainfall will accompany the convection Sunday
afternoon and evening. WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall across most of the region with a Slight Risk just
clipping our NW Piedmont counties. Increased cloud cover and showers
will help to keep temperatures in check with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s inland. Cooler along the coast Sunday with mid and upper
80s in areas that remain to the east of the diffuse frontal
boundary. Showers and storms likely linger into the overnight but
should lose some punch as the boundary layer cools considerably by
late evening.

A cold front approaches the region from the NW on Monday with
continued shower and storm chances. Widespread clouds and precip
should keep a lid on the severe threat Monday but a few locally
strong wind gusts are possible. Potential for flash flooding
will be the primary concern on Monday, especially in areas that
see appreciable rainfall on Sunday. WPC has the entire area in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. High temps Monday
generally in the upper 80s. Lingering showers and storms will
become confined toward the coast Monday night with temps in the
low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Unsettled pattern continues into next week with seasonably warm
  and humid conditions and mainly diurnal shower and storm chances.

Afternoon and evening showers and storms continue well into next
week with the aforementioned cold front stalling near/just west of
the local area. Plenty of instability should be in place across the
region next week but the main belt of stronger flow aloft will be
displaced well to the north. Strong wind gusts and localized
flooding will continue to be a threat each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures top out in the upper 80s to low 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday with overnight lows remaining in the low to mid 70s.
Warmer conditions are expected by late week with highs creeping back
into the low to mid 90s. Afternoon heat indices potentially rise
back toward Heat Advisory criteria (105+) Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

A mix of flying conditions early this morning across the region.
Satellite and surface observations show some MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY,
mostly to the SW of the main terminals. Conditions are
improving at SBY which was IFR through much of the early
morning. Will prevail IFR until 13z for now. Expect VFR to
dominate through the remainder of the morning and afternoon.
Light and variable winds this morning become SE 5-10 kt this
afternoon. Some CU expected after mid morning with bases around
4000 ft. Some showers and isolated storms are possible, mainly
for inland terminals during the afternoon and evening but very
low confidence in coverage and timing preclude a specific
mention in the forecast.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are
expected through the weekend and into early next week, along
with the potential for early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
  afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail this weekend and continue
through the middle of next week as high pressure remains anchored
off the Southeast coast. The wind is mainly S 5-10kt early this
morning. A weak front will push across the coast later this morning
resulting in a wind shift to NE 5-10kt. By this aftn into this
evening, the wind will become ESE and mainly 5-10kt, with the
exception of 10-12kt in the Ches. Bay. The wind is expected to be SE
5-10kt Sunday with a slight diurnal increase during the late
aftn/early evening hours, and then mainly S to SW 5-10kt early next
week, before potentially becoming SW 10-15kt later Wednesday. Seas
will mainly be 2-3ft this weekend through the middle of next week,
with 1ft to occasionally 2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Aftn/evening
showers/tstms will have limited coverage today and Sunday, with
potentially higher chances by Monday aftn/evening, and then less
coverage toward the middle of next week. The main hazards with tstms
will be brief strong wind gusts and frequent lighting.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ