438
FXUS61 KAKQ 250237
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
937 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Southeast tonight before moving
offshore Monday. This will bring dry conditions and gradually
warming temperatures. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday
with a few light showers possible. Widespread rain is expected
by Thanksgiving as low pressure moves over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Cool with patchy frost possible tonight.

High pressure is centered offshore of the Southeast coast this
evening, while low pressure slowly departs further east through
the Canadian Maritimes. Clear skies and light winds are allowing
temperatures to drop at a quick clip this evening and low
temperatures tonight should bottom out in the lower to mid 30s
NW to the upper 30s to lower 40s SE. A few of the typically
cooler spots will likely drop below freezing. Patchy frost is
again possible over portions of far s-central VA and interior NE
NC where the frost/freeze program is still active. However,
there is likely limited impact with lows of 34-36F given that we
are in late November.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Mild temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday.

- A few isolated showers are possible Tuesday as a cold front
  moves through.

High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Monday as an
upper trough and associated cold front drop into the upper
Midwest. Milder Monday as the surface high nudges offshore with
high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s inland W and SW of the
Ches. Bay and lower 60s over the Eastern Shore. Continued dry
Monday with increasing high clouds. The upper trough digs across
the Great Lakes Monday night with the associated cold front
pushing across the Appalachians late. Moisture is limited with
the front, with a minimal chc of showers (mainly across the
northern tier of the area) Tuesday morning as the boundary
pushes through. QPF is only a few hundredths of an inch at most.
Post-frontal downsloping westerly flow will result in another
mild day Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 60s NW to the
upper 60s to near 70F SE, after morning lows in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. The upper trough deepens and shifts E across the
Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Surface high pressure
along with a dry/cool advection arrive into the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Forecast lows Tuesday night drop into the
lower to mid 30s N to the upper 30s/lower 40s SE, followed by
highs Wednesday ranging from the lower 50s N to the upper 50s SE
with increasing high clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages...

- Confidence has increased in widespread rain arriving on
  Thanksgiving.

- Much colder temperatures arrive next weekend.

Another trough, initially over the Central Plains Wednesday
moves E and deepens over the Eastern CONUS Thanksgiving Day into
Thursday night with developing surface low pressure. There is
even some more uncertainty over the past 24 hours with the
24/12z GFS/GEFS and EPS/ECMWF, with the EPS/ECMWF more amplified
with the primary trough and surface low Thanksgiving into
Thursday night. Therefore, the EPS probs for >= 0.5" of rain
have shifted N, and the GEFS probs are more concentrated over
the local area. Regardless, rain is increasingly likely
Thanksgiving into Thursday night. Highs Thanksgiving Day reflect
a CAD set-up with lower 50s NW to mid/upper 60s SE, but will
ultimately be dependent on the track of the low. Lows Wednesday
night range from the lower 40s NW to lower 50s SE, and lows
Thursday night range from the mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE allowing
for a slightly quicker arrival of the drier and cooler airmass
from the NW.

GEFS/EPS each continue to depict a much colder and very dry
airmass arriving late this week into next weekend. Forecast PoPs
are below NBM Friday into Friday night based on the consensus
of the timing in the GEFS/EPS showing drier air surging into the
region by Friday. The latest forecast is for highs in the upper
40s to lower 50s Friday, with 40s next weekend. Lows
potentially drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 620 PM EST Sunday...

High pressure centered SE of the area will keep dry conditions
and VFR in place through Monday. Skies will average clear of
mostly clear with just some occasional cirrus. Light and
variable winds tonight become S or SSW 5-7 kt after sunrise
Monday.

Mainly dry and VFR conditions continue through Wednesday. One
exception will be a cold front early Tuesday that will bring a
minimal chance of showers, mainly from RIC to SBY. Low pressure
will bring a higher chance for rain and degraded flight
conditions by Thanksgiving Day. Dry and VFR conditions return by
Friday as high pressure builds in from the NW.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions will continue into early this week.

- A cold front crosses the waters on Tuesday leading to a brief
  potential for SCA conditions.

- A stronger frontal system approaches late in the week,
  leading to the potential for a prolonged period of elevated
  winds/seas.

Late this aftn, weak high pressure was centered to the WSW of
the area. Winds were WSW 5-15 kt over the waters. Seas were
2-3 ft and waves were 1-2 ft.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected this evening into Mon evening,
as high pressure builds over the area then off the coast. Winds
become southerly and increase later Mon evening into Mon night
ahead of the next cold front, but should generally stay sub-SCA
through this timeframe. There will be a brief window for potential
SCA winds Tue morning with the frontal passage, esply over the
Ches Bay and coastal waters. After Tue morning, sub-SCA conditions
return into Thu, before a stronger front crosses the area Thu
night. There will likely be a prolonged period of elevated
winds/seas behind this front, as much colder air filters in the
region.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/SW
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/TMG