649
FXUS61 KAKQ 040019
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
819 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure pushes offshore today bringing dry and pleasant
conditions. A cold front approaches from the west later tomorrow into
Friday, bringing a chance for isolated showers and
thunderstorms. A stronger cold front crosses the area late
Saturday into Sunday. High pressure builds north of the area
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Lows tonight generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

- A cold front approaches Thursday bringing a chance of showers
  and thunderstorms across the Piedmont.

Evening weather analysis shows a large trough over much of the
eastern CONUS with an embedded closed upper level low across the
northern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure remains
over the area, bringing mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
which will likely linger through tonight. Temperatures as of
720 PM were in the 70s for most of the area. Overnight, the high
pressure will gradually slide off the coast. This will allow
for warmer air to advect back into the area by Thursday. Low
temperatures for tonight will not be as cool as the previous
night with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Will note
that some mid 50s are possible across the Piedmont, southern
VA, and western portions of NE NC if clear skies prevail
overnight.

For Thursday, stronger flow aloft will round the trough as it
continue to strengthen. While at the surface, a low pressure
will be centered and strengthening just north of Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this system will continue
to make its way out of the Midwest and slow down along the
Appalachians by tomorrow afternoon, bringing a chance of
showers and storms across the Piedmont (generally remaining west
of I- 95). Ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures
will climb back into the middle to upper 80s. With the high
pressure off the coast, it will also fetch in additional
moisture ahead of the front. Dew points are expected to rise
into the lower 60s. As previously stated, there is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Some of the
isolated showers and storms could pose a risk of damaging wind
given the strong low-level lapse rates. However, some limiting
factors are instability and shear. The latest HREF shows SBCAPE
values ~500 J/kg and bulk shear ~25kt. SPC has highlighted a
Marginal risk of severe weather west of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- The warming trend continues on Friday with dry conditions expected.

- Warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday with highs in the
upper 80s to the lower 90s.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday ahead
of a much stronger cold front.

The upper level trough will continue to remain over the eastern half
of the US with the strongest flow aloft on Friday. The cold front
from will approach the area but will dissolve before making it to
the CWA. This will allow for temperatures to warm with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Dry weather conditions are expected as the
main forcing will dissolve. Friday night temperatures will remain
mild with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. By Saturday, a strong
low pressure system will move NE out of the Midwest and Great Lakes
region and across NE Canada. A strong cold front attached with this
system will move across the area bringing an additional chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Ahead of the front temperatures will rise
into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Given a day to recharge dew points
will be able to rise into the middle to upper 60s. Given strong
diurnal heating and better moisture modest instability will build
into place across the area. The main limiting factor in place is
shear. The better shear and flow aloft will be much further north.
However, latest models are showing bulk shear to be between 25 to 30
kt. Given these factors in place some of the showers and storms
could pose the risk of a strong to severe wind gust. By Saturday
evening the cold front will have pushed through the area and
temperatures will lower into the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:


- Cooler weather returns by Sunday into early next week.

- Best chance for the extended is across the SE.

The latest 12z ensemble guidance looks to be in decent agreement
with one another for the extended. By Sunday there is a strong
signal for a decent trough to move over the eastern US. While at the
surface high pressure will move out of NW Canada and move just north
of the area. This high pressure will help bring cooler temperatures
across the area and through much of the extended forecast. The cold
front will have moved across the area and stall just off the coast.
Before moving off the coast Sunday some showers are possible across
the SE. Highs for Sunday will be in the middle to upper 70s.
Temperatures through the extended will remain in the middle 70s. By
Monday the high pressure should be north of the area keeping most of
the area dry through the extended. However, there is still a decent
signal from the ensembles of a some precipitation cross the SE
portion of the CWA as moisture is being transported along the
stalled boundary off the coast. The chances of precipitation
across the SE continues through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 735 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 00z taf period. Partly cloudy
to mostly clear skies continue through tonight with SCT altocu
moving into the Piedmont before gradually dissipating overnight.
Cannot rule out some patchy fog, however, confidence is low
with generally only the NAM showing any potential. As such, have
left any fog mention out of the TAFs. Will note that NAM bufkit
soundings show some shallow low level saturation by early
Thursday morning which could result in some shallow ground fog
or stratus, however, the 18z run showed drier air compared to
the 12z run. Otherwise, a brief period of altocu or stratus is
possible at ORF/ECG/PHF early Thursday morning with CIGs likely
remaining VFR. CU (~5000 ft CIGs) are expected to develop by
Thursday afternoon across the area with greater coverage west of
I-95. Additionally, isolated to scattered showers and storms
are possible generally along and west of I-95 late Thursday
afternoon into early Thursday evening with locally strong winds
possible. However, confidence in any storms reaching RIC is low.
As such, have added a PROB30 for showers at RIC at this time.
Winds become light and variable this evening, becoming S
generally at or below 5 kt by early Thursday morning. S winds
increase to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt Thursday afternoon
across the area ahead of an approaching cold front.

Outlook: Dry/VFR on Friday, with a chance of isolated to
scattered afternoon/evening storms at all terminals on
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 820 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- A period of elevated southerly winds is likely late Thursday
  afternoon into the overnight across the Chesapeake Bay and
  northern coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
  expected over the Bay and possible over the lower James and
  northern Atlantic coastal waters.

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk is in effect for all area beaches
  Thursday.

The latest weather analysis shows weakening ~1014mb sfc high
pressure centered just NNW of the area. To the northwest, ~996mb
sfc low pressure remains over SE Ontario, with the associated
sfc cold front draped across the upper Great Lakes. Light
onshore NE flow at 5-10 kt turns around to the S/SE late tonight
into Thursday morning, as the pressure gradient slowly tightens
ahead of the approaching cold front. That front moves through
the local waters Thursday afternoon and evening, with increasing
winds across the Ches. Bay and the northern coastal waters
post- frontal. Winds will likely reach 15-20 kt over the bay and
~20 kt for the coastal waters. The current local wind probs
show a 60-90% chance for sustained 18kt winds in the bay, with
only a 20-30% chance for 25 kt winds over the Atlantic coastal
waters Thursday evening. A Small Craft has been issued for the
Chesapeake Bay for tomorrow afternoon through around sunrise
Friday morning. A Small Craft may ultimately be needed for the
lower James River after midnight Thu night/early Friday, but has
been deferred and capped at 15-17 kt (gusts to 20 kt) for now.
SCA for a brief southerly surge and 3-5 ft seas may ultimately
be needed for the northern coastal zones, but again put off for
now due to the marginal and brief nature of the surge.

A second, stronger cold front crosses the local waters this
weekend, which could bring additional SCA conditions mainly
Sunday into Monday, as the front remains offshore and winds
switch around to the NNE with the pressure gradient remaining
compressed between cool high pressure building over the region
and deepening low pressure along the front offshore. Seas 2-3
ft build to 3-4 ft late Sunday into the middle of next week,
with some 5 ft possible with building E-SE wind wave.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk is in effect for all beaches
Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the Bay side of
the lower MD Eastern Shore due to increasing tidal anomalies
due to building S winds this evening. Water levels consistent
with nuisance to near minor coastal flood thresholds are
possible in the upper Rappahannock and upper Bay this evening,
with near minor flooding forecast at Bishops Head, MD.

Tidal anomalies increase a bit more as S winds increase
further, reaching 1-1.5 feet above normal by the Thursday
evening high tide cycle. Some nuisance to minor flooding will be
possible Friday morning, again mainly in the upper Bay. The
highest high tide looks to be Thursday evening, with minor to
near moderate flood thresholds possible at Bishops Head.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET
NEAR TERM...HET/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB/HET
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...