818
FXUS61 KAKQ 070557
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
157 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions continue through early Thursday as high pressure
lingers over the area. A cold front approaches Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night, bringing scattered showers and
storms. Cooler weather is expected Friday into early next week.
Unsettled weather returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 810 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Dry and cooler tonight, with lows mainly in the 50s.

Evening WX analysis indicates a potent upper low cutoff across
south central NY-central PA with weak sfc low pressure slightly
to the NE of the upper low. Locally, a WSW flow prevails aloft
around the base of the aforementioned upper low. With the loss
of daytime heating, the sky is now mostly clear with temperatures
mainly from the the mid 60s to around 70F. Some mid level clouds
are expected after midnight, mainly over northern sections of
the FA as the next shortwave rotates through the base of the
upper low. Fairly cool overnight lows primarily in the low- mid
50s inland and around 60F along the immediate coast, though a
few upper 40s are likely in the typically colder spots along and
W of I-95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry through early Thursday.

- Scattered showers and storms are expected Thursday afternoon
  into Thursday night.

- Much cooler weather arrives Friday.

High pressure lingers over the area through early Thu with dry
conditions continuing. A shortwave moves into the area Thu into Fri,
bringing unsettled weather. Scattered showers/storms are expected
Thu afternoon into Thu night ahead of an approaching cold front (50-
75% PoPs). Models differ with respect to the exact timing of
the front due to differences in the 500mb pattern. The models
show a cutoff low developing across PA Fri, however, the exact
placement of the low will determine how much of the FA will see
shower/storm chances lingering through the day Fri. For now,
PoPs range from ~30% W to 50-60% E Fri. Overall rainfall from
both days is generally expected to remain light across the S and
moderate across the N (0.10" S to 0.5-0.6" N). However, locally
heavier rainfall totals are possible in heavier storms.

Much cooler weather arrives Fri behind the cold front with highs in
the upper 60s to around 70F N to the mid 70s S. Wed and Thu will be
mild ahead of the front with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Wed
and low-mid 80s Thu. Lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s are expected
Wed and Thu nights with cooler temps in the mid-upper 40s inland Fri
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler weather continues this weekend into early next week.

- An unsettled pattern develops early next week.

Aloft, an cutoff low remains along the N Gulf Sat into early next
week underneath a ridge of high pressure extending N across the
central CONUS into Canada. At the surface, high pressure builds
in from the Great Lakes through the weekend before sliding
offshore early next week. As such, a cool and cloudy pattern
develops this weekend into early next week (highs generally in
the 70s each day). While it remains unsettled through the week,
confidence is generally low in precip before Tue as it will be
heavily influenced by the exact position of the upper level low
over the N Gulf. If the low trends closer to the local area PoPs
could trend up and vice versa. For now, have a slight chance
PoP through the weekend with PoPs increasing to 30-40% Mon night
and 30-60% Tue (highest across the SW portions of the FA).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered over the region as of 06z. VFR under a
clear sky with a calm to very light W to SW wind. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail today into tonight. A light
WNW wind is expected to develop later this morning and then
shift to WSW 5-10kt during the aftn, with the exception of ORF
where the wind potentially shifts to ENE with the sea-breeze by
19-20z. Clear/sunny this morning with SCT to occasionally BKN
CU with bases around 7kft developing during the aftn. Increasing
cirrus tonight with a light SSE wind.

VFR Thursday morning into the afternoon. A low pressure system
and cold front will approach the region later Thursday through
early Friday bringing scattered showers and a few tstms, with
the best chc for flight restrictions Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Conditions improve later Friday, with VFR
conditions expected Friday night through Sunday as high pressure
builds N of the region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories for the Lower Chesapeake Bay and Lower
James River are in effect until 5 PM as winds have surged behind a
weak cold front.

- Benign marine conditions will return this evening through late
week.

A weak cold front from the surface low pressure system over the Ohio
Valley River has passed over the local waters, causing a surge in
winds in the lower bay and Lower James River. The onset of this
surge over-performed with shifting S to SW winds 15 to 20 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt. Winds in the bay and rivers continue to remain
gusty at 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Models show winds
decreasing within the next few hours to then settle around 10 kt
this evening and overnight. As such, the SCA will be allowed to
expired at 5 PM, if not earlier. Otherwise, the VA coastal waters
are currently SW 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, while the front
hasn`t quite passed through the MD waters, keeping S winds at 10 to
15 kt. After the front moves offshore, the winds will once again
reach sub-SCA criteria through the end of the week with winds
returning to be SE 5 to 10 kt Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure returns to the region. Waves and seas remain below SCA
criteria.

The next system will approach the region on Friday with the
associated cold front moving through the area early Friday morning.
Winds have the potential to increase with the mixing behind the
front to SCA criteria. Local probailities have about a 50% chance of
the bay and coastal waters reaching SCA criteria late Friday into
Saturday. Confidence with this system is still low, so timing and
strength may vary.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC