114
FXUS61 KAKQ 101845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
245 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the area into this evening, allowing
for pleasant weather conditions across the area. A few showers
will be possible over far southern VA into northeast NC. Dry
and slightly warmer conditions are expected across the area.
High pressure will migrate further south through the week
allowing for temperatures to warm and allow for the daily
chances of showers to return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Slightly warmer but still near or just below climate norms for
  early-mid August.

- Isolated showers and perhaps a t-storm is possible this
  afternoon and this evening, mainly south of US-58 in VA and
  over NE NC.

- Patchy fog is more likely late tonight/early Monday morning
  across the Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore. Some locally dense
  fog will be possible.

Latest weather analysis reveals a broad upper level ridge
centered over the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface,
~1024mb high pressure remains in place offshore of the northeast
and Delmarva coast, ridging down the mid-Atlantic coast. A weak
coastal front remains in place along the coastal Carolinas,
with a weak low near the GA/SC line lifts NNE toward the NC
outer banks. PW values have increased considerably along the
crystal coast of NC and N toward the northern OBX. Latest
mesoanalysis showing PW values of 1.75-2" across NE NC and
1.5-1.75" nudging N into south central and SE VA, with much
lower values < 1.50" from RIC metro on north, including the
Eastern Shore.

Mainly sunny over the NW half of the area, with some stratus
and stratocu lifting north from the SE coastal trough over
southern VA into central and eastern NC. We`ve also seen some
isolated showers lift E-SE into coastal Pasquotank and Currituck
Counties, as the coastal trough slowly lifts inland. These
showers aren`t making it very far inland, as lower PW and weaker
forcing are not allowing showers to push much beyond the VA/NC
line, but we`ve noted some sparse showers over the past 2-3
hours with a brief heavy downpour or two. 18z obs reflect
temperatures ranging through the mid 70s to lower across the
region, with the forecast and expected highs in the low to mid
80s still on track.

Some additional isolated to widely scattered showers will
spread inland across NE NC late this afternoon into early
evening. While the balance of the afternoon and evening will be
more dry than not over these areas, some short-lived moderate
heavy showers are possible given the PWs ramping up. Otherwise,
look for a mainly sunny afternoon north, with a mix of sun and
clouds central zones, with high temperatures in the low to mid
80s, coolest along the immediate coast. As the high slips
farther south to a position just off the mid-Atlantic coast
tonight, return flow will be more efficient. There is therefore
better potential for fog and low stratus development late
tonight into Monday morning, with some locally dense fog
possible around and just before sunrise Monday morning. LAV and
CAMs have each been trending lower with VSBY on the Eastern
Shore and over the VA piedmont, and have held these trends for
the going forecast. Lows will also be slightly milder, with
early morning low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s inland
and upper 60s to lower 70s along the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures gradually warm through midweek.

- Daily chances of showers and storms return Monday and Tuesday.
  Organized severe storms are not expected, but locally heavy
  rainfall remains possible with any developing storms each day.

The upper level ridge continues to build over the east coast
tomorrow. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure slowly weakens
just offshore. More sustained S to SW winds should allow for a
better, more sustained influx of warmer and more humid air to
build back into place. PW values gradually increase to AOA ~1.5"
over the NW half of the area, to AOA 2" over the SE half of the
area. The building heat and humidity also bring increased
instability in the form of 500-1000 J/kg worth of MLCAPE. These
ingredients should be enough to help initiate more widespread
showers and possibly an isolated storm primarily to the south of
I-64 Monday afternoon. No organized severe threat is expected
given weak shear and weak steering flow, typical for this time
of year. However, given the forcing from the coastal trough and
increasingly efficient warm rain processes (increasing PW and
deep warm cloud layer approaching (FrzLvl-LCL) 13-15kft/4-4.5
km AGL), additional brief heavy rainfall is possible with any
showers that fire up tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures range
from middle 80s across the north and lower 80s south and along
the coast due to the increased sky cover and occasional showers.

High pressure settles into position out in the western Atlantic
beginning on Tuesday. Otherwise, a very similar weather picture
persists. The slow warming trend continues, with highs in the
upper to middle 80s and Td values rising into the upper 60s to
lower 70s. This yields heat indices mainly in the 90s by Tue
aftn. Daily, and still mainly diurnally-driven chances for
showers and storms persist, but again with minimal organized
severe threat with the weak flow aloft and locally heavy
rainfall as the main threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Near to slightly above seasonable temperatures are expected
  late this week into next weekend.

- Chances for daily late afternoon and evening showers and storms
  return through the forecast period. However, the potential
  for widespread severe weather remains low.

The 12z/10 ensemble guidance remains in decent agreement that
the surface ridge settles into place out in the western
Atlantic, keeping temperatures near or just above seasonable
values. Meanwhile, upper troughing upstream over the plains
weakens Wed- Fri, allowing the upper level ridge to lock into
place along the Gulf Coast, maintaining a sustained period of
return flow over the region well into next weekend. The midwest
cold front attendant to the weakening midwest trough looks to
ultimately cross into the northeast by late this week, but the
front is looking more and more likely to wash out before pushing
into our region.

Highs Wed through Sat will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
with early morning lows rising back into the 70s. Dewpoint
values climb back into the low 70s, allowing for heat indices
topping out ~100 through the mid to late next week, but likely
not reaching Heat Advisory criteria through this period. Daily
chances for showers and storms persist, owing to a series of
weak shortwaves on the periphery of the deep south ridge.
Locally heavy rainfall remains the main threat with any mid to
late week convection. Severe weather remains a lesser concern,
as shear remains weak/not supportive of organized convection.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Sunday...

SCT-BKN CU with MVFR CIGs (1500-3000 ft) have developed across
the area this afternoon. The CU likely lingers through the
afternoon before dissipating this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. However, MVFR stratus will likely linger across
SE VA/NE NC through tonight, spreading inland into Mon morning.
CIGs lower overnight with IFR CIGs possible along and west of
I-95 by early Mon morning (highest confidence between 8-13z
Mon). These IFR CIGs may impact RIC. Otherwise, mainly MVFR CIGs
are expected at PHF/ORF/ECG through most (if not all) of the 18z
TAF period. SBY likely remains close enough to the area of high
pressure to allow for mainly VFR conditions (outside of patchy
fog). Outside of CIGs, a few light showers are possible at ECG
over the next few hours. Otherwise, patchy fog is possible
overnight into early Mon morning across much of the area
(outside of SE VA/NE NC where a thicker cloud deck persists)
with reduced VIS possible at RIC and SBY. MVFR to IFR VIS is
possible with the fog, with the best chance for fog between
7-12z Mon. Any fog dissipates shortly after sunrise Mon with
SCT_BKN MVFR CIGs continuing through the day. PoPs increase
across S VA and NE NC Mon afternoon with scattered showers and
storms possible. Locally reduced VIS due to heavy rain is
possible.

Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
continue through the week. Confidence is highest Mon with
generally low-moderate confidence for the rest of the week.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible Mon. Additionally, given
increasing heat and humidity, MVFR CIGs will continue to be
possible through the week with potentially IFR CIGs and/or VIS
(due to fog) possible at night in some locations.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A High Risk for rip currents continues into this evening across
the southern beaches with a Moderate Risk across the northern
beaches.

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

High pressure was centered off the New England and Mid Atlantic
coastline this afternoon with a stationary front along the Southeast
coast. The area of high pressure slowly builds S over the next few
days, allowing for generally benign marine conditions this week.
Winds this afternoon were generally E 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15
kt. Winds gradually become S by Mon night. Winds remain SW to SE
into early Thu with a return to onshore flow by Fri. Waves and seas
were 1-2 ft (except 2-3 ft at the mouth of the bay) and 3-4 ft
respectively this afternoon. Waves subside to 1-2 ft tonight with
seas subsiding to 2-3 ft. Waves and seas remain generally 1-2 ft and
2-3 ft respectively through the week.

A High risk for rip currents continues in this evening across the S
beaches given lingering 3-4 ft waves, shore-normal swell, and 8-9
second periods. A Moderate risk for rip currents continues across
the N beaches given slightly less favorable swell direction and
lower waves (~3 ft). The rip current risk decreases to Low across
the N beaches and Moderate across the S beaches Monday through
Wednesday. The Moderate rip current risk persists across the S
beaches due to lingering shore-normal swell and 2-3 ft seas. Will
note that the periods increase to 9-10 seconds on Tue across all
area beaches. As such, the Moderate rip current risk may need to be
extended to include the N beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...HET/MAM
LONG TERM...HET/MAM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI/RMM