286
FXUS61 KAKQ 201054
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
654 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front drops south today before lifting back
northward on Monday. An unsettled pattern develops next week
with shower chances returning to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A backdoor cold front drops south and west today, leading to a
  range of temperatures across the area.

1028mb high pressure is centered over northern Michigan early this
morning with low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front
extends south and west from the surface low through NY/PA and into
the Ohio Valley. Aloft, broad ridging remains over the SE CONUS with
an upper trough digging into west TX.

Very mild early this morning with temps in the upper 60s and low
70s. Mid and high level clouds are moving into the region on SW flow
aloft. 00z global/CAM guidance is in good agreement showing the
front dropping south into the local area through the morning hours.
Winds will swing from around to the N behind the boundary, becoming
NE by early afternoon and ENE or E by mid to late afternoon. This
backdoor frontal passage will lead to a decent range of high
temperatures today with the coolest values expected NE and warmest
SW. Cooler temperatures/onshore flow will lag the surface front by a
few hours so areas near and south of the US 460 corridor will see
highs in the low/mid 80s with upper 70s to low 80s to the north.
Farther NE (Northern Neck/Eastern Shore) will only rise into the mid
70s with cool advection coming a bit earlier than points S and W.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies today for most of the area but a few
breaks in the clouds are possible NE by late afternoon. The vast
majority of the area will stay dry today but a few light showers may
clip the NW counties tonight with QPF generally around a trace to
perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. Cooler tonight with lows
ranging from around 50 degrees for the MD Eastern Shore to mid and
upper 50s for the remainder of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- The front lifts back to the north on Monday with low level
  moisture increasing ahead of an approaching cold front.

The front will lift north as a warm front Monday with southerly
winds and thinning clouds by the afternoon. Staying dry through
the day with highs in the 80s inland and 60s to low 70s for the
Eastern Shore. A very slight chance for a few showers across
the far N and NW Monday night but not expecting much measurable
rainfall. Mild once again with lows in the low/mid 60s (upper
50s near Ocean City, MD).

Warm Tuesday with a chance for showers over the NW half of the area
as the next cold front approaches the region. Highs will be in the
80s for inland areas with mid and upper 70s for the Eastern Shore.
SSW winds early in the morning become W/SW or W by the afternoon.
Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are possible Tuesday with
PoPs 30-40%. Chances for showers/storms shift to the S and SE
Tuesday night ahead of the cold frontal passage with lows in the mid
50s N to the low/mid 60s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Weakening frontal boundary will meander near the region mid to late
  week with mainly diurnal chances for showers and a few
  storms.

- Above normal temperatures continue with inland highs near 80
  through the week.

Strong upper ridging near Florida will be shunted south and east mid
to late week, allowing broad SW flow aloft and a continued chance
scattered showers and storms. Temps rise into the 70s Wednesday with
the highest PoPs across the southern third of the area. Pattern
remains stagnant with temps in the 80s Thursday and Friday. Focus
for showers/storms will shift to the SW on Thursday. Southerly flow
returns Friday ahead of the next cold front. Showers may continue
into the overnight period NW and N Friday night with lows in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Highs near 80 again on Saturday with the front
potentially dropping across the area overnight with continued
chances for showers and a few storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. A backdoor
cold front crosses the terminals from north to south starting
near the start of the forecast period. Winds become NE ~10 kt
with gusts 15-20 kt behind the boundary. Mid and high level
clouds are noted on satellite imagery. Some low level clouds are
possible this afternoon and evening but CIGs should remain VFR.

Outlook: Mainly VFR/dry conditions continue through Monday
night. The only potential exception to this would be a period of
sub-VFR CIGs Mon AM. The next chance of precipitation
(scattered showers/tstms) is Tuesday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Winds shift to north then northeast behind the cold front
  later today, but are expected to remain below Small Craft
  Advisory criteria.

A cold front is located from just south of Long Island, back WSW
to the central Appalachians. With the flow aloft nearly parallel
to the boundary, the front will continue to weaken as it drops
south into the local waters over the next few hrs, eventually
pushing south into eastern NC by late morning. A bit of a surge
is expected behind the frontal passage, as pressure rises advect
into the region, but the temperature gradient remains weak, so
still anticipate the surge being sub-SCA aside form a few gusts
to around 20 kt. Nonetheless, expect the wind to quickly veer
from SW to NE ~10-15 kt later today, then to the E tonight, and
gradually shifting back to the SSE later Monday as the boundary
lifts back north as a warm front. Seas this morning average
~4 ft across the northern zones, and ~3 ft south, but will
become more uniform at 2-3 ft over the Ocean by this aftn. Waves
in the Bay and rivers will primarily be 1-2 ft.

SCA headlines may potentially be needed over the Ches. Bay
Monday night ahead of the next cold front, before the pressure
gradient relaxes again Tuesday immediately ahead of the front.
High pressure builds into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday,
with a generally light (10-15kt or less) N to NE wind. Seas
will mainly be 2-3ft through the middle of next week. Waves in
the Ches. Bay will primarily be 1-2ft tonight through the
middle of next week, with the exception of 2-3ft with increased
southerly flow Monday night. High pressure becomes centered
offshore of the northern mid-Atlantic coast late in the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ/LKB