848
FXAK02 KWNH 112351
PMDAK

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 PM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Valid 12Z Sat 15 Mar 2025 - 12Z Wed 19 Mar 2025

...General Overview...

A dual-centered low pressure system is expected to be in place
across the Gulf for the beginning of the forecast period Saturday,
and this should reach the British Columbia coast by Sunday morning.
This is followed by another potentially better organized storm
system for early next week that will cross south of the Aleutians
and then over the Gulf by next Tuesday. Meanwhile, a strong arctic
surface high will be in place north of the Arctic Coast, with
breezy to windy conditions north of the Brooks Range. A third
system is likely to approach the Aleutians by the middle of next
week.

...Model guidance and predictability assessment...

The 12Z model guidance suite features good overall agreement
across the domain for the upcoming weekend with mainly mesoscale
differences noted with the low across the eastern Gulf. The models
also have a reasonably good handle on the next storm system
passing south of the Alaska Peninsula, although the latest CMC is
more suppressed with the low and has higher surface pressures
across the Bering when compared to the model consensus. The
arctic surface high has good model agreement through the entire
forecast period. For the storm system approaching the Aleutians
late in the forecast period, the GFS/GEFS is faster, along with
the CMC to some extent, in contrast to the slower ECMWF/ECENS. The
ensemble means were increased to about 50-60% by the middle part
of next week.

...Sensible weather and potential hazards...

Most of the mainland should be dry with the exception of some
scattered snow showers across western portions of the Interior,
mainly during the weekend in association with an inverted surface
trough. The next chance of more impactful precipitation would be
next Monday and Tuesday as the second storm system enters the Gulf
and produces a potential atmospheric river event at the southern
mainland coast and eventually southeast Alaska, with rain near the
coast and heavy snow for the coastal mountain ranges. Windy
conditions and some blowing snow are likely for the North Slope
and points north owing to a strong pressure gradient from the
arctic high. No major temperature extremes are anticipated over
the next week, with some slightly cooler than normal readings for
the northern half of the state, and returning to slightly above
average for the southwestern mainland by early next week.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$