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FXAK02 KWNH 042357
PMDAK

Alaska Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024

***Stormy weather on the horizon for late in the week as another
strong low likely develops over the Gulf of Alaska***


...Overview and Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...

The powerful extra-tropical low associated with former typhoon
Jebi will likely be over the northern Gulf of Alaska by the
beginning of the forecast period Tuesday, after hammering the
Aleutians and western portions of the mainland over the upcoming
weekend.  It is forecast to weaken by Tuesday with central
pressure rising to about 990 mb, and then weakening further going
into the middle of the week.  This will then be followed by a
break in the bad weather for Wednesday into Thursday, but there
will likely be additional trouble on the distant horizon as
another potentially strong storm system develops south of the
Aleutians by the end of next week, and brings another round of
impactful rain and wind to southern Alaska.

The 12Z model guidance suite has a decent overall depiction across
the Alaska domain to begin the work week.  The CMC strays from the
consensus for the middle of the week with an a stronger lead
surface low ahead of the major low expected later in the week, and
also differs in the eventual evolution of the Gulf low by Friday,
and farther to the north compared to the ECMWF/GFS solutions.
Ensemble means were gradually increased to about 40-50% by the
Friday/Saturday time period.

...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

Gale force winds and rough seas are expected over the open waters
of the Gulf of Alaska to begin the week, with strong winds likely
across the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island, with gap wind
enhancement. Heavy rainfall (and snow in the higher terrain) is
expected from the Alaska Peninsula all the way to the southeast
Panhandle, although the intensity should be waning going into
Tuesday as the storm system weakens.  The next storm developing
over the Gulf late in the period will likely bring the return of
heavy precipitation for Friday and into Saturday for some of those
same areas, with an atmospheric river event likely accompanying it
and enhancing precipitation totals.  In terms of temperatures,
cooler than normal highs are likely over southern parts of Alaska
owing to increased cloud cover and precipitation, and warmer than
normal temperatures are likely for the northern two-thirds of the
mainland for the upcoming week.

Hamrick


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard Information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range Alaskan products including 500mb, surface
fronts/pressures progs and sensible weather grids can also be
found at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/ak_5km_gridsbody.html

$$