320
FXAK67 PAJK 230012
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
312 PM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

 - Active shower pattern continues through the weekend.

 - Rain/snow mix across the southern panhandle Sunday, becoming
   light snow sunday night for the northern panhandle

 - Offshore flow is looking more likely for the middle of next
   week bringing colder temperatures and clearing skies to most of
   the panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday night/...A broad, weakening
low stalling in the central gulf continues to spin through the
weekend, sending light showers through the panhandle. Only around
0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain are expected Saturday night, with
another inch of snow for the Klondike Highway near White Pass. A
small shortwave moving in overnight Saturday will bring slightly
more organized precipitation to the southern panhandle for Sunday
before spreading north into Monday morning. The winds will not be
an issue through the short term, staying around 15 to 20 kts in
the gulf following the shortwave band. Southwesterly winds
following the band will curve southeasterly along the coast,
picking up speeds to around 25 kts in the gulf coming out of Cross
Sound on Sunday and quickly diminishing into Monday. An overcast
cloud deck will move in Saturday night with this shortwave and
slowly spread north through Sunday, though the far northern
panhandle will have a chance to see some breaks in the clouds
Sunday night before the band moves in.

Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday, with highs around the high
30s. As the shortwave moves into the southern panhandle, rain may
begin to mix with snow at higher elevations. Only around an inch
of snow would be possible during the day, though mixing with the
0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain expected and the daytime temperatures
being near 40 will limit snow accumulation. As the shortwave
spreads into the northern panhandle by Sunday evening the snow
potential will become more and more likely, with around one to
three inches possible for those northern communities overnight
into Monday morning. The rest of the panhandle will continue to
see light rain of less than a quarter of an inch Sunday night.
The low pressure system in the gulf looks to fall apart through
the day Monday, though the southwesterly gradient will continue
onshore flow into Monday night.

.LONG TERM...Starting Monday morning, a low in the Gulf continues
to weaken while still bringing some onshore flow to the area.
This onshore flow will likely continue to bring showers to the
panhandle. More specifically, the central panhandle looks to be
the main focus for any precipitation that does fall. As this low
weakens, high pressure is starting to look more likely to develop
in the Interior as well as near the Yukon. With this strengthening
high pressure as well as cold air from the Arctic, the pressure
gradient between the coast and the Yukon is expected to
strengthen. With this increased gradient, winds are expected to
increase through the gaps in the terrain bringing us offshore
flow. With the offshore flow, precipitation chances are expected
to diminish as well as colder temperatures are looking more likely
for this upcoming week. Some places could potentially see their
coldest temperatures since last winter. There is still some
uncertainty in ensemble guidance so the fine details are not as
clear yet. But this pattern change is looking very likely headed
into next week. Headed into the latter half of the week, the
uncertainty continues with regards to potentially seeing a warm up
for the panhandle. But with the cold air in place, any moisture
that moves into the area could fall as snow before switching to
rain. Things could still change going forward and will continue to
be watched.

&&

.AVIATION...Shower activity continues to decrease in intensity
and frequency this afternoon and evening with most areas seeing
VFR conditions (isolated MVFR near heavier showers). Several areas
of the inner channels are even being rain shadowed by the high
elevations of islands farther west (like Prince of Wales Island
rain shadowing Ketchikan) and seeing mostly clear skies as a
result. The diminished shower activity will continue to gradually
diminish into tonight with mostly VFR conditions continuing. Into
late tonight and tomorrow, fog may become an issue late tonight
with the large breaks that have developed in the cloud cover
mainly for the inner channels. Isolated areas of IFR could be
encountered near fog banks. There is also the possibility of some
shower activity returning for the southern panhandle and outer
coast Sunday morning with some MVFR ceilings possible as a new
short wave moves into that area. That may spread some of that
precipitation northward into Sunday night.

Winds are rather low with 15 kt being the highest surface winds
noticed (exception is Lynn Canal and Skagway with gusty southerly
surface winds this afternoon). Highest winds will remain in Lynn
Canal and Skagway mainly this evening before diminishing
overnight. Otherwise, winds will generally remain somewhat low to
showing a diminishing trend through the next 24 hours with little
threat of low level wind shear or turbulence.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Onshore flow from a departing shortwave northern
British Columbia and southern Yukon will give way to a weak,
somewhat vertically stacked low in the northern central gulf. A
short wave negatively tilted trough will move up from the south,
kicking up southerly winds up to a fresh breeze along the NE gulf
coast down to around Cape Decision. As the associated front moves
against the terrain, expect to see a tip jet develop across the
coast of Cape Spencer, with winds exceeding 25 knots. Waves remain
elevated from westerly to southwesterly swell to 12 ft, with
overall wave heights beginning around 13 ft, and diminishing to
around 7 ft throughout through tomorrow night.

Inside Waters: The trough expected to move up through the southern
and central panhandle looks to stall around Icy Strait, keeping
Lynn Canal mostly drainage flow past tomorrow night. Wind
associated with this trough look to be around a moderate to fresh
breeze from the SE, steadily increasing over the day Sunday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...NC

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