163
FXAK67 PAJK 111540
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau
AK 447 AM AKDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A mid 980 mb surface low SE of Kodiak Island
will drift to the SE today. Meanwhile a large swath of open cell
convection over the gulf is slowly tracking NE towards the panhandle
and NE Gulf coast. A mix of rain and snow showers are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Tuesday night /...Shower activity is
expected for the panhandle and northeast Gulf Coast, with favored
locations on the SW-W slopes and nearer the outer coastline. Cooler
temperatures have wrapped around so anticipating showers to be mixed
at times, or all snow in the morning then a mix later in the day.
Accumulations will be up to 2 inches, depending on whether you get
multiple showers over the same location. Overnight lows will drop
down to the 20s for the northern portion of the panhandle and lower
30s for the southern panhandle.

As the low near Kodiak Island drifts southeast, offshore will pull
the shower activity away from the NE Gulf coast later this afternoon
with drier weather lasting into Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...

SE AK will enter a stagnant pattern, with primarily clearing skies
and drier weather. Primary concerns going from mid week and into the
weekend are the fresh to strong north to northeasterly breezes. A
couple of features will drive our pattern through the aforementioned
timeframe. Modest downward motion will assist to increase the
pressure at the surface in both British Columbia and Yukon. At the
same time, multiple low pressure systems will pass south, attempting
and failing to push moisture into the panhandle. The result is drier
air, and non impressive northeasterly winds. Unfortunately for the
high wind speed lovers, the current dynamic setup does not support
higher wind speeds, nor mountain wave activity in downtown Juneau.

Looking towards the weekend, ensemble data as well as the EC AIFS
seem to suggest that a weak low will indeed move near Prince of
Wales Island, but only the operational GFS has substantial moisture
being pulled in from the south. Given the high probability of a lack
of moisture (80% chance of below 0.1 inch liquid in 24 hours), not
expecting any significant snow accumulation.

For temperatures, expect normal to below normal temperatures with
larger diurnal swings between maximum and minimum where skies are
clear.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers continue to plague the region, dropping any
VFR down to MVFR and/or IFR at times. Look for better conditions and
more VFR later tonight as showers break apart. For Wednesday morning
we could see areas of freezing fog as skies clear aloft.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...AP

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