670
FXAK67 PAJK 310641
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1041 PM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation discussion following 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...Much of the panhandle has seen improvement to VFR,
with some remaining showers bringing intermittent lowered CIGs
down to 1500 to 1000 ft. Multiple waves of showers are expected to
push through from another low moving into the panhandle, bringing
most of the panhandle back to MVFR down to IFR at times overnight
into the morning. The chances for low-end MVFR to IFR are highest
between 08z tonight and 16z in the morning, before winds picking
up into the morning will help to clear some areas back up to
high-end MVFR to VFR even as showers continue past 18z. Confidence
remains on seeing IFR CIGs being more likely in the late night and
early morning period, ahead of these winds picking up, but
depending on the timing, the lower CIGs may last longer into the
morning for some areas. Overall though, showers overnight with
some breaks between them will make many areas see jumps from VFR
down to MVFR/IFR back to VFR as the showers move through, with
some lingering low clouds in areas with calm winds even during
these breaks.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 401 PM Sun Aug 30 2026...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A brief lull in heavier rain showers is expected Sunday evening
  before a stronger low moves into the Gulf, bringing another
  round of precipitation through Monday.

- Potential for another lull in the weather starting mid week as
  high pressure tries to move into the area.

SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/ Cloudy day with some
showers around as what is left of a low weakens west of Baranof
Island. General onshore flow is the rule today for most areas east
of Cape Fairweather. Which is what is responsible for the cloudy
and showery weather. West of Cape Fairweather, flow is offshore
and significant breaks in the clouds have been observed around
Yakutat. The weakening low is not going to move much into tonight
before it gets absorbed by the next low dropping down from Prince
William Sound tonight.

That next low will be the main forecast driver through at least
Tuesday. First that low is looking to be stronger than this
weekend`s system was bringing increased winds to the northern
2/3rd of the panhandle and gulf waters as it drops SE Monday, and
to the southern panhandle by Tuesday. A majority of these winds
are not expected to be higher than 25 kt with the highest winds
likely in Lynn Canal/Skagway and over the offshore waters of the
gulf on Monday. Not expecting any wind gusts on land to be any
higher then 30 kt so no wind advisory conditions expected.

This low is also reinforcing the onshore flow over the panhandle
and bringing some upper level vorticity into the picture (mainly
closely wrapped around the low center itself). So rain will be
returning to many areas for Monday and Monday night, and will
linger into Tuesday for the south. Total rainfall from late Sunday
night to Tuesday afternoon will range from around 1 inch to around
2.5 inches. Complicating the picture is that the low will be cold
core in nature with 850 mb temps dropping to near freezing in the
vicinity of the low. This combined with the vorticity is raising
the potential for some thunderstorms to develop from the stronger
showers over the gulf and along the outer coast when these showers
encounter the higher terrain along the outer coast. We have
included a rather broad area of slight change thunder for the gulf
waters starting late tonight west of Icy Bay and then spreading SE
through the gulf and along the outer coast through Monday. The
area of possible thunder persists into Tuesday as the main low
heads SE before passing to the south Tuesday night.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday/...The long term forecast
remains largely uneventful. Clearing skies will continue take
over the rest of the panhandle from north to south Wednesday. The
low pressure system bringing rainfall to the southern panhandle
Tuesday meanders southward through Wednesday, continuing a chance
of scattered showers for parts of the southern and central
panhandle through the afternoon. Shower potential will diminish
into Thursday as an area of ridging shifts eastward through the
gulf, persisting through Saturday and bringing northwesterly flow,
drier conditions, and warmer temperatures through the second half
of the week. High temperatures will reach the high 60s to low 70s
in the northern panhandle and the low to mid 70s in the southern
panhandle Thursday and Friday with ample clearing.

Northerly winds will increase up to 25 mph through Lynn Canal and
into Northern Chatham Strait overnight from Tuesday into
Wednesday, decrease through the day, and increase again through
Thursday morning. Winds will decrease again overnight into Friday
morning before the flow switches southerly through the afternoon
as the pressure gradient turns. Models are in high disagreement
going into the weekend, with the EC holding onto the ridge in the
gulf through the weekend and the GFS favoring an upper level
shortwave making it over the ridge and into the northern panhandle
Saturday. Depending on how things change over the next few days,
we could have a very dry or very wet weekend.

AVIATION...

As expected, currently seeing some improvement in a few locations,
but in areas like Icy Strait, conditions are struggling to reach
high end MVFR. As previously stated, expecting to see a return to
low MVFR and IFR tonight, as multiple shortwaves both in the
northern panhandle and southern panhandle move in. Guidance
continues to be somewhat heavy handed in IFR to LIFR for a longer
period of time. Current TAF issuance is more confident towards
some IFR CIGs earlier on in the night, due to winds not picking
up as fast as previously anticipated. Expecting to see CIGs lift
by 16-17z tomorrow morning as winds pick up in most areas.

Not expecting any LLWS criteria from these systems moving
through tonight, but may have gusty winds associated with TAF
sites from Icy Strait southward.

MARINE...

Outer waters: A developing low in the northern gulf will move
along the coastline from Sunday night down to Dixon Entrance on
Tuesday morning. As the low traverses south, winds will shift from
generally westerly, to generally southerly, to generally
northerly. Strongest wind look to be in the southwest quadrant of
the low, primarily in the offshore waters in the center of the
gulf. Sustained winds in this area do have the potential to reach
gale force, but the most represented forecast as of now is just
under gale force. Expecting a fresh jolt of westerly swell as
well, primarily collected with the highest wind speeds, with
westerly swell of around 7 ft increasing to 11 ft for combined
wave height of 14-15 ft Monday evening into Tuesday.

Inside Waters: The low pressure expected to move along the
coastline will bring widespread fresh to strong southerlies to
southeasterlies for the inside waters on Monday. Pulled back on
the timeline of strongest winds to the late morning to early
afternoon timeframe, as the front looks slightly slower than the
previous forecast. Monday night sees the low pressure move
offshore from Sitka, transitioning southerly to mainly easterly
winds. Going further overnight, a cold front in the wake of the
low moves down from Canada, increasing northerlies to around 20
knots. Due to the lack of cold air to keep the boundary layer
dense, not expecting any wind speeds above 20 knots. That being
said, confidence is medium on these northerly winds, and they may
be increased.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-036-642>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...NC

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