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FXAK67 PAJK 222318
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 PM AKDT Thu May 22 2025

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Sunday morning / Overall pattern is not
changing for Southeast Alaska as a general mid level low persists
over the Gulf of Alaska and continue rotate trough with associated
frontal bands into the panhandle through the weekend. The favored
location for the rain fall will be across the southern portion of
the panhandle with a couple of inches of rain anticipated.
Another developing wave will be moving into the southern gulf and
be rotating into ward the Southeast Gulf early part of the
upcoming week. Frontal band for the weekend will be on the gusty
side for the southern panhandle, ( see the marine section. ) Land
areas could see gusts reaching up to 40 mph at times early
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Looking towards the weekend, the rainy weather
returns with the rainy weather lasting into next week.

Key points:
-Moderate to heavy rain expected in the panhandle beginning
 Saturday.
-Stronger-than-normal southerly winds will move into the southern
 panhandle.
-Rainy weather looks to last well into next week.

Details:
An area of low pressure will slide into the panhandle from the
west, then get pushed northward Saturday and Sunday. Beyond
Sunday, ensemble models keep an averaged low pressure in the gulf
through much of next week. This would give SE AK a rainy week.

As far as rainfall amounts, latest EURO and GFS ensembles are
averaging about 1 to 2 inches of rain each day beginning Saturday.
Areas on the windward side of mountains could get a little more.
Overall, just a rainy week ahead but no flooding is expected at
this time.

For wind speeds, the EFI is highlighting stronger-than-normal
southerly wind speeds Saturday through Monday. Marine wind speeds
in the southern inner channels could get upwards of 20 to 35 knots
with the strongest speeds found in southern Clarence Strait and
in the outside waters.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread VFR conditions continue across the panhandle
Thursday afternoon, with some CIGs below 3000 ft for isolated
showers. These should continue to diminish through the evening ahead
of an approaching system, with winds shifting to more southeasterly
and then easterly at elevation.

Main aviation concern remains deteriorating conditions overnight
Thursday into Friday with a front impacting the southern panhandle.
Showers and lowered CIGs will move in between 08z and 12z along with
LLWS of 25 to 30 kts as the front pushes inland. MVFR conditions
along with LLWS and gusty surface winds will be in store for the
southern panhandle from Frederick Sound southward for a majority of
the day Friday. North of Frederick Sound, primary aviation impacts
will be lowered CIGs and stray showers rotating northward through
the day Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Friday, a weak front increases winds and waves along the
southeastern gulf coast. Expect at most strong breezes to near
gales in southern Clarence Strait and Dixon Entrance Friday
morning as the front moves through. These winds will relax in the
afternoon to evening timeframe to moderate breezes, but do not
expect these winds to stay low for long. The stronger front
increases winds and waves for the gulf Saturday morning. Late
Friday night into Saturday morning, southerly winds across the
southern gulf increase to 25 to 35 kts. There is an 80% chance
that wind gusts will reach strong gale force of 40 to 45 kts for
these southern areas. At this time on Saturday, wave heights will
build to 10 to 12 ft west of POW and over N Dixon Entrance. Expect
winds to diminish down to a fresh to strong breeze Saturday
afternoon and continue through Sunday. Looking towards next week,
there is early indications of a stronger system moving into the
panhandle. At this time, expect at least gale force winds in Dixon
entrance and Clarence Strait. These winds may extend up to Cross
Sound, but confidence is low.

Inside: The current ridge over much of the inner channels will
begin to break down tonight, with many north south facing channels
flipping to northerly winds. On Friday, the first system will
reach the panhandle increasing winds near cross sound to 15 to 25
kts and winds in Southern Clarence Strait to 20 to 30 kts. The
stronger front makes its way to the panhandle Saturday increasing
southern channels to near gale to gale force winds.

A marine weather statement has been issued focused on the stronger
winds and waves this weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...As far as rainfall amounts, latest EURO and GFS ensembles are
averaging about 1 to 2 inches of rain each day beginning Saturday.
Areas on the windward side of mountains could get a little more.
Overall, just a rainy week ahead but no flooding is expected at
this time. A stronger system will be moving in Monday and Tuesday
a wet moisture plume and a weak atmospheric river for the
southern half of the panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641>644-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek

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