618
FXAK67 PAJK 100608
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1008 PM AKDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 6z TAF issuance...

&&

.SHORT TERM...High pressure continues to remain over the Gulf
this afternoon while a marine layer still tries to hold onto
places across the panhandle. Some areas have been able to break
out completely while other areas have struggled to see significant
clearing. This layer is expected to try and persist. A weak
surface low and associated front are expected to develop as a
result of a passing upper level trough axis moving through the
area. This low will bring some increased winds to the area while
it works across the northern Gulf. Besides some increases in
winds, rain is expected to return to the panhandle, mainly north
of the Icy Strait corridor. Rainfall amounts at this time are
expected to be less than half an inch for most places. Farther
south, fairly quiet weather continues as the influence of high
pressure over the Gulf remains. After this weak system moves
through, high pressure returns back into the area continuing the
trend of relatively quiet weather.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/...
 Key Messages:
- High pressure remains over the gulf through the long term
  forecast period, sliding further south early next week
- Weak Northerly outflow Saturday, cooler temperatures with
  clearer skies overnight Friday lasting into Sunday
- Rain chances increase later Sunday and into early next week
- Moderate to heavy rain possible for northern gulf coast Tuesday

Building on the short range discussion, weak high pressure will
build in the interior and Yukon behind a quick moving short wave
feature to start the weekend. While high pressure builds over the
interior and Yukon Territory, high pressure will also remain over
the gulf and NE Pacific. As a result, northerly outflow will
develop with winds increasing along north/south oriented channels.
The strongest winds are still expected along Lynn Canal and
Chatham Strait early Saturday morning. The primary driver of the
increased pressure gradient over the inner channels was the
interaction between high pressure over the interior and a trough
moving northward from the pacific Northwest into the vicinity of
southern Haida Gwaii. However, model guidance has trended to
reduce the northward track of this feature, as well as lowering
its strength. As a result, the pressure gradient developing over
the panhandle Friday into Saturday will likely be lessened,
resulting in weaker outflow. As of this forecast issuance,
sustained winds are now only expected to reach fresh breeze (17 to
21 kt), with gusts up to 30 kt for Lynn Canal for a brief period
early Saturday morning. While this dry northerly outflow is not
expected to be as robust, confidence remains for that Saturday and
Sunday minimum temperatures to reach near or below freezing at
sea level for most communities in the northern and central
panhandle, particularly those furthest from the outer coast and
sheltered from any significant wind. Daytime maximum temperatures
will likely be limited to the low 50s or upper 40s for the inner
channels while outer coastal communities could reach the mid 50s.

Outflow winds are expected to have diminished by Saturday night
with otherwise cool and clear conditions persisting into early
Sunday. Later Sunday and into Monday, model guidance still
diverges on timing for the next organized system to impact the
panhandle. While some models bring a weak front into the panhandle
late Sunday night along with a long fetched plume of moisture,
others have the high pressure in the gulf staving this off for a
bit longer into Monday or even early Tuesday. Either way though
when it does arrive it would likely bring moderate to potentially
heavy rain to the northern coast, and then light to moderate rain
to the rest of the panhandle as it spreads eastward. Overall
message though is increasing chances for more unsettled weather
early next week after an otherwise fairly crisp and breezy
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...A low cloud deck has pushed over the outer coast and
the inner channels down Icy Strait and into Lynn Canal. A
majority of the northern panhandle is seeing MVFR CIGs, with the
outer gulf coast occasionally dropping to IFR CIGs AoB 1500 ft and
VIS 3SM or less. The central interior panhandle and the southern
panhandle is currently seeing clear skies and light winds, which
with the dropping temperature is conducive to fog development
overnight into the early morning, especially for the interior
panhandle. Fog may be dense in some areas, which would drop
airport conditions to LIFR. A weak system will attempt to push
into the northern panhandle late tonight into Friday morning,
bringing light rain and VFR to MVFR CIGs. Conditions are expected
to improve Friday afternoon in the wake of the system, allowing
for skies to begin to clear out into the evening. Winds will
generally remain light around 8kt or less through the TAF period.
However, as the system passes through, outflow winds out of
Haines, Skagway, and potentially also Ketchikan will increase to
10-15kt with gusts around 20kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): High pressure remains over the
Gulf this afternoon with a weak low forming in the Prince William
Sound area. As this low develops further and tracks to the east,
winds are expected to increase with this system as moderate to
strong breezes are expected for the coastal waters. Seas will
remain elevated and eventually build with the low. Current
readings from Gulf buoys is around 7-9 ft but these wave heights
are expected to increase to 9-10 ft for these areas while farther
offshore, wave heights could be up to 15 ft. As this system
dissipates and moves to the east, high pressure is expected to
return to the Gulf bringing northwest flow to the area.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds persist for the Inner
Channels this afternoon and a marine layer is spread across most
of the Inner Channels from Sumner Strait northward. This marine
layer is expected to persist through the overnight hours tonight
as an approaching weak low will try to increase wind speeds for
the area. With this marine layer over the Inner Channels, reduced
visibilities are possible. Especially for areas that are sheltered
from the wind. Headed into tomorrow, high pressure returns to
control for the area and north to northwest winds return for most
of the Inner Channels that are favored during high pressure.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...SF

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