487
FXAK67 PAJK 231440
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
640 AM AKDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.SHORT TERM...
As the decaying low continues to move southwest away from the
panhandle this morning, a surface ridge continues building across
the area, bringing warmer temperatures and dry weather this
weekend. Remnants of the system that moved through yesterday leave
some lingering cloud cover across the northern panhandle and
along the coast, but clearing has already begun across parts of
the southern and central panhandle. This will continue this
morning as the clouds are pushed through, giving some clearer and
sunny skies for the northern panhandle as well by the late
morning. Alongside 850 mb temperatures between 12 and 14 degrees C
moving up into the southern and central panhandle, warm air
advecting down to the surface, these clearer skies will allow for
even further surface heating and warmer temperatures. The southern
panhandle is expected to see maximum temperatures in the high 70s
to low 80s this afternoon, elsewhere in the panhandle expecting
high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The warmest areas are
expected further inland away from the water, where sea breezes may
develop and be enhanced due to the surface heating. Outside of
the potential for sea breezes, the majority of the panhandle will
see light winds both inland and along the inner channels.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/...
Key messages:
- Ridging builds over the gulf
- Sunny skies and above normal temperatures expected for this
  weekend into the start of next week

Details: Sunny, benign weather dominates the long range forecast.
An upper level ridge begins to form over the panhandle Sunday,
helping to keep the panhandle dry and warm through the period.
This ridging combined with high pressure in the central gulf will
bring clear skies through the weekend and into early next week.
Occasional high clouds will filter over the northern panhandle at
times, with Yakutat seeing the most coverage through early
mornings. Fog in sheltered inner channel areas and marine layer
development along the outer coast is possible with clear skies
combined with warm temperatures and light winds.

This ridge and clearing skies will allow for warmer temperatures,
especially for the southern panhandle. Temperatures at 850 mb
increase to around 11 to 14 degrees C, even reaching 15 degrees C
for the interior southern panhandle. Those upper level
temperatures, with clearing skies, indicate temperatures
increasing into the 70s for many locations, and into the high 70s
in the southern panhandle. The heat advisory for Hyder has been
extended through Sunday afternoon. These warmer temperatures are
expected to continue into early next week. Winds remain light with
at most 5 to 10 kts for a majority of areas. Some communities
along the inner channels and Northern Lynn Canal may feel a sea
breeze developing in the afternoons, though this won`t get very
strong with the combating outflow winds. The only exception to
this is into Cross Sound and around Point Couverden, with the
ridging helping to funnel sea breezes into the channel. Inland
areas will feel warmer, as light sea breezes may provide a gentle
breeze to communities along the water.

Low probability for light rain and cloud cover return through
Thursday, as remnants from a broad system extending from interior
Alaska down through the western gulf.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 12z Sunday/
Widespread VFR conditions across the panhandle this morning as
last of bit of front continues to push out of the northern
panhandle area with CIGS AoA 4000ft and P6SM visbys. Through the
rest of Saturday, dry conditions under VFR conditions will
prevail with gradually clearing skies and CIGs AoA 8000ft as
ridging moves in aloft.

Winds should remain around 15kts or less, diminishing through the
afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated gust up to 20kts this
afternoon under any sea breeze interactions. No LLWS concerns
through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: As the weak low moves SW away from the panhandle, the
only remaining increased winds will be easterly 15 kt winds coming
out of Cross Sound and further offshore closer to the low. The
rest of the Gulf has lighter wind speeds this morning, which are
expected to continue decreasing to light and variable into
tonight as a ridge builds over the eastern Gulf and panhandle.
Winds around Dixon Entrance and west of POW will begin to increase
again to 15 to 20 kt into tomorrow morning. Seas will diminish
from 4 to 6 ft this morning to around 3 to 4 ft by tonight. S
swell with dominant wave period of 6 to 8 seconds expected.

Inside: Largely calm and variable conditions across the inner
channels this morning and into today, with the highest winds this
morning coming from the E out of Cross Sound at 10 to 15 kt still.
This should diminish into the morning, with the wind shifting to
westerly by around 20Z, and increasing again by tonight to around
10 kt in Cross Sound and Icy Strait. Lynn Canal is also expected
to see a wind shift, from N 10 kt this morning to S 10 kt by this
afternoon. This may be enhanced further if a sea breeze develops
in the afternoon or evening hours, due to the skies clearing and
surface heating expected later today. Clarence Strait will also
increase to between 10 and 15 kt this afternoon through tonight as
the ridge presses against lower pressure to the SE over B.C.,
bringing up winds coming out of southern Clarence Strait near
Dixon Entrance. Sea breezes may also set up over the rest of the
inner channels, bringing some potential for some local increases
to winds in the inner channels during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM AKDT this evening for
     AKZ328-330-332.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ331.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...Contino

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