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Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1018 AM AKDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New 18z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
A warm front continues to move through the panhandle at time of
writing. Looking at current CMORPH estimated precipitation, a
beautiful swath of rain rates around 0.15 - 0.30 inches per hour
are currently located near Sumner and Clarence Strait. A few
convective cells on the southern end of the warm air advection
currently trekking just south of Annette Island show an impressive
0.6 inches per hour rates. Look for these heavy rates to move out
of the area quickly, only lasting through the morning hours
before being replaced by onshore flow from the west. Not expecting
widespread showers behind the front as the low to mid level
moisture looks to be sapped by cold, dry continental air from the
interior. Should see some breaks in the clouds from the dry air
from the west, but no widespread clear skies yet.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
-Lingering shower chances diminish through Friday morning.
-Next system moves into the western gulf early Saturday
-Associated warm front brings more rain to the panhandle late
 Friday

Details: Friday looks to be a good chance for the panhandle to
take a collective breath, before being doused once more with rain
starting Friday night and lasting through most of the weekend. The
far southern panhandle has the best chance of dodging a majority
precipitation this time around based upon the expected track of
this next system. For more information on expected marine
conditions, see the marine discussion.

Overall little changes have been made to the inherited forecast
in the long range. EFI Tables still match with the northern coast
getting unseasonably wet with this weekend system, though impacts
still remain light. If the low remains on the more north track,
there is potential for ridging to develop at the beginning of next
week which could bring more clear weather before it reaches the
coast. That being said, there is still a strong enough signal for
the ridge to break down quickly, allowing the troughing over
western Alaska to slide east and give SE AK more rain. As for
temperatures, highs will be in the mid 50s with lows in the mid
40s near normal. Upper 50s and low 60s may be possible, mostly in
the southern panhandle where more breaks in the clouds are
possible. Stay tuned for updates through the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 18z Friday/...
Widespread precipitation will come to an end across the panhandle
through Thursday afternoon as fronts exit the area. In its wake,
anticipate isolated showers with predominate MVFR to VFR flight
conditions to continue with CIGS AOB 3000 to 5000ft and
intermittent vsbys dropping to near 2 to 4SM through Thursday
afternoon. Brief ridging moves in aloft through Thursday night,
leading to lowered cigs with moisture trapped underneath, AOB
2500ft through early Friday morning with potential for IFR deck
devlopment, improving to predominate VFR flight conditions by
Friday afternoon.

Winds should remain around 10kts or less through the afternoon
for much of the panhandle, decreasing to 5kts or less overnight
and variable, outside of Skagway and Haines which will see
persistent elevated sustained winds 20 to 25kts with gusts up to
25 to 35kts as gradient tightens from approaching front. Strongest
winds for Skagway should be after 21z through this evening with
sustained winds near 25kts and gusts up to 35kts likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters:

The rest of Thursday and Friday, general west-to-east flow will
give around 10 to 20 kt winds in the eastern Gulf. A likely gale
force low will move through the western Gulf late Friday into the
weekend. The front side of the low looks to bring gale force winds
to the coastal waters. The winds will start to pick up late
Friday night and last through Saturday. 25 to 35 kt winds could
linger into Sunday for the southern outer coast as the low wraps
up and moves northward.

Inner Channels:

Southeast winds will be replaced by southwest winds as a cold,
dry air mass sweeps across the panhandle on Thursday. Expect a
mostly unstable atmosphere with this passing, meaning gusty
conditions in east west facing channels, such as Cross Sound, Icy
Strait, Frederick Sound, and Sumner Strait. Areas exposed to the
gulf will have a much sharper wind shift, then as the winds
encounter the mountains, much of the energy will be lost. Still
expect a wind shift even into southern Stephens Passage, but
expect the shift to be somewhat more gradual.

Additionally, westerly wind aloft will generate leeside troughing
near Haines and Skagway, keeping lower pressure. Then, near Icy
Strait, pressure rises from the aforementioned westerly cold air
advection will cause a sharp pressure gradient. The result will be
prolonged strong breezes in Lynn Canal, mostly in the northern
section of the channel.

Late Friday into the weekend is when the inner channels will have
increased winds again. The previously mentioned low looks to
swing a front through the area that will increase wind speeds in
the inner channels to around 15 to 25 kts. Lynn Canal will be the
exception again where wind speeds will increase to near 30 kts
with brief gusts upwards of 40 to 45 kts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-641>644-651-652-661>664-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC

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