995
FXAK67 PAJK 130537
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
937 PM AKDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.UPDATE...06z Aviation Discussion

&&

.SHORT TERM...Not much change to the overall package, just
provided further confidence in ideas already present in the
forecast. Looking on satellite, the incoming system from the
southwest is just off the coast of Baranof Island, with inner
channels winds shifting NE in the northern half as expected.
Still not expecting large amounts of QPF with this system as the
depth of moisture is relatively small. Expect for rainfall to
mostly fall apart by this evening, with some light on shore flow
keeping precipitation chances in the forecast for the inner
channels due to low level moisture and orographic lift.

For tomorrow, reduced sky and PoPs down to mostly sunny and zero
chance of precipitation. With stronger ridging aloft coming from
the north and dry air advecting with it, good chances for
widespread clearing skies and surface ridging. Therefore, expect
sea breezes and warmer temperatures in the mid 60s tomorrow.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/...

Key messages:
- Dry and partly cloudy conditions through the week
- Potential for rain to return Thursday and Friday
- Warming temperatures mid week

Details: Ridging moving north through the gulf will push the
previous low out of the panhandle and set up for drier weather
Monday. Clouds are expected to linger through the week, though the
potential for skies to clear out keeps growing every day. The
panhandle is expected to see partly cloudy conditions for much of
the week, though periods of more or less clearing are possible
throughout the day. Typically after there has been sufficient
surface heating a marine boundary layer may develop, bringing
clouds back to the northern panhandle. The southern panhandle will
continue to get more and more clear through the week, with
outflow winds picking up to moderate to fresh breezes coming out
of Clarence Strait. Clearing skies and warmer temperatures aloft
should allow for temperatures to rise near 70 degrees at the
surface for a majority of the panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the highest chances for the southern panhandle and
communities in the inner channels. These temperatures could be
offset in many areas by the development of an afternoon sea
breeze. In the interior, Hyder could even see temperatures reach
near 80 degrees during this time.

A disorganized surface level low with associated upper level
troughing looks to bring precipitation back to the northern
panhandle Thursday, spreading south through Friday. Model spread
leaves much to be desired at this point, with many aspects of this
system varying from run to run including timing and associated
precipitation amounts. The GFS depicts a more organized system
that will send a stronger frontal band over the northern panhandle
with lots of precipitation, while most other models stay
relatively dry and calm Thursday. Friday`s condition remains
dependent on this track; if the system reaches the panhandle
Thursday morning that could mean Friday would be more dry, vs if
Thursday is clear Friday could receive the precip instead. Stay
tuned for further updates as we go through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 6z Monday/...

The remains of the weather system pushing though the southern
panhandle with northern edge of the precipitation line has pushed
to Sitka, where the line of precipitation is expected to fall
apart through this evening. South of the line, westerly onshore
moist flow will keep low ceilings between IFR and LIFR for much of
the night. Areas on the windward side of mountains facing the west
are particularly prone to poor CIGs. Similarly, lighter winds and
recent rainfall has made visibilities particularly variable
between 2-4 NM. Not expecting much improvement for conditions
south of Sitka.

Sitka is by far the most uncertain TAF site, as it sits directly
on the boundary line between dry and moist air. Velocity radar
returns show the winds aloft shifting southerly slightly, which is
currently bringing down VIS from rain. However, as it moves SEerly
with the low feature falling apart and dipping south, mountains
look to block some precipitation.

Otherwise, look for all sites to improve drastically tomorrow,
from north to south. Dry air from the north looks to sap away any
residual moisture aloft, clearing skies and returning the
panhandle to what is left of its summer. Expect sea breezes to
develop with Skagway expected to increase to 15 knots by midday.


&&

.MARINE...

Outside: As the incoming system hits the panhandle and weakens,
expect moderate to fresh northerly breezes along Baranof Island
and the NE Gulf coast. Special mention to Cross Sound, as a tip
jet developing will provide the highest magnitude wind speeds for
the northern half of the coastline in our AOR. In the southern
panhandle, there is the possibility of a short lived gale at the
entrance to Clarence Strait due to some terrain influences
(barrier jet), but not expecting anything as drastic, with a swift
change to westerly fresh breezes as the cold front pushes
eastward into the panhandle.

Inside: Lynn Canal has been stubborn today to become light as a
result of light troughing in the Yukon, but the gradient is
expected to relax in the coming hours. Otherwise, southern
Stephens Passage, Icy Strait, and Chatham Strait have all shift
north to northeast and have begun to increase, reacting to the
incoming low pressure off the coast of Baranof Island. Expect
speeds to increase to around a moderate breeze before relaxing
overnight. In Clarence and Sumner Strait, fresh to strong breezes
are expected to pick up shortly in response to the warm front
extending out from the low pressure. Looking towards Sunday,
expecting comparatively warmer temperatures and sea breezes to
develop. This means that Icy Strait, Point Couverden, Point
Craven, and Lynn Canal are expected to increase up to 15-20 knots.

A marine layer could develop tomorrow evening, causing changes in
wind speed in Icy Strait and visibility impacts to the outer
coast and entrances to the inner waters; however confidence is low
at this time.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....ZTK
AVIATION...NC
MARINE...NC

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