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FXAK67 PAJK 131940 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1040 AM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025

.Morning Update and 18z Aviation Discussion...
Minor changes to the ongoing forecast as a weak low situates
itself in the N Gulf through today with a near stationary front
draped across coastal SEAK. With the low in the N Gulf, expecting
light N-ly offshore surface winds to continue for the N Gulf,
including Yakutat. With cooler surface temps and overrunning
warmer SE-ly warm saturated air aloft in combination with some
decent instability and saturated DGZ from the 12z Yakutat AROS
launch,increased Yakutat snow totals through this afternoon up to
1 to 2 inches. Forecast challenge for today will be looking at
the overnight period for snowfall continuing at Yakutat. If
surface winds continue to remain N-ly with the weak low in the N
Gulf, expecting more snowfall accumulations through Thursday
night with the front draped over the coastline. However, a turn
more E to SE- ly gives higher confidence of a rain/snow mix with
little accumulations with the front staying just offshore. Stay
tuned to the latest forecast at weather.gov/juneau.

.AVIATION.../through 18z Friday/
General VFR flight conditions with CIGS 3500 to 5000ft across the
panhandle this early afternoon with isolated MVFR ceilings around
1500ft near the Icy Strait Corridor as a weak low sits in the N
Gulf. Through the rest of the the afternoon, general flight trends
will continue, becoming more MVFR flight conditions as this low
will push a near stationary front into the SEAK Gulf coast,
bringing a return of widespread perception across the area through
00z. By 12z tonight, expecting widespread MVFR flight conditions
across the panhandle with CIGS 1000 to 2500ft and visbys 3 to SM,
with potential for brief periods of IFR CIGS and visbys through
Friday morning.

Winds should remain around 10kts or less through the TAF period,
exception being Ketchikan which will see gusts up to 20kts by 12z
as front continues inland. No significant LLWS concerns, but will
see broad SE-ly flow aloft near 2k feet around 25 to 35kts along
and south of a line from Sitka to Kake to Petersburg developing
through early Friday morning, continuing into Friday afternoon.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 537 AM AKST Thu Nov 13 2025...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Incoming low will spread clouds and precip over the panhandle
  today.

- Some snow mixing into the rain is possible but warmer air
  surging up from the south will give mainly rain by later today
  into tomorrow for most of SE AK.

- Wind speeds will increase along the coast and in the southern
  panhandle later today into tonight.

SHORT TERM.../Today and tonight/...The weather over the next 24
hours or so won`t be too impactful by SE AK standards, but clouds
and precip look to make a return to the panhandle.

At the 500mb level, the flow is onshore on average but embedded in
that onshore flow is a weak ridge that is exiting the area with an
incoming embedded trough. This means the quiet weather we ended
yesterday with is moving out and today through tonight is looking at
increasing clouds and precip.

At the 850mb level, an area of low pressure in the northern gulf
will try to spread some WAA into the area. Right now, most of the
panhandle is marginally cold enough, at 850mb, to support snow with
temps down to -4C to -6C. But by this afternoon, temps look to warm
to -2C to -4C from the Icy Strait corridor to the southern
panhandle. High confidence in seeing mainly rain for this area by
the afternoon. For areas along and north of Icy Strait, there is at
least the possibility for some rain/snow mixing through today.
Tonight, the warmer air looks to continue to spread inland, which
would reduce the chances to see snow and increase the chances of
seeing mainly rain for areas along and south of Icy Strait. Northern
Lynn Canal could see lingering snow mixing into the rain through
Friday at least.

At the surface, a quick moving area of low pressure looks to move
east along the southern Gulf of Alaska today before swinging north
tonight. This will spread precip eastward into the panhandle today
before pushing the precip northward.

This low will also increase wind speeds as is approaches. Biggest
increases will be felt in the southern panhandle tonight. Land area
wind speeds will increase to around 5 to 15 mph with gusts upwards
of 25 to 35 mph. Marine wind speeds will increase to upwards of 20
to 25 kts, more about the marine forecast can be read in the Marine
section below.

LONG TERM.../ Friday through Sunday /...A weakening trough falls
apart across the north-central panhandle as another one lifts
towards the southern panhandle. Friday to Saturday will see a
passing front, associated with a low that forms on a feature from
the main parent low in the west-central Bering Sea. This front
will spread across the gulf, reaching the panhandle late Friday
before moving through the area by Saturday night.

Late Saturday to Sunday is showing ridging over the gulf to central
gulf coast. At the same time, an upper level low, cutting south
of the panhandle, will help to pull the front through and
southeast, which should result in partial clear, or an end of the
shower activity in the northeast gulf coast and northern
panhandle. Does look like the break will not be very long in time.

The rain/snow line, for Friday and Saturday, could reach down to
about the Icy Strait corridor. Light or no accumulations are
possible before warmer air pushes in and brings back mainly rain
as the dominate precip type. For Northern Lynn Canal, a mix or
light snow accumulation is also possible although, there are
concerns that moisture amounts will not be sufficient. At this
staying on the lighter end of snow totals, mainly under 3 inches,
however if better QPF is available, this could be doubled.

MARINE...Incoming low pressure today will bring increasing south
to southeasterly winds later today and tonight. Afterwards, a
passing front tomorrow will keep the elevated wind speeds in the
area. As the front exits, wind speeds will decrease Saturday.
Another front late Sunday into early next week brings another
round of elevated wind speeds.

Outside: Most of the outside waters today will have winds on the
lighter side at around 5 to 15 kt. The exception is along the
coast, where winds coming out of Cross Sound and along Prince of
Wales Island will increase to upwards of 20 to 25 kts as the low
slides east.

After today`s low, a passing front will increase south to
southeasterly winds in the Gulf to 20 to 25 knots. Then wind
speeds will decrease Saturday before increasing again late Sunday
into early next week.

Inside: Main concern for winds in the inner channels will be the
increased winds along and south of Frederick Sound. As the low
approaches, winds will swing to the south and increase to around
15 to 25 knots, especially in Clarence Strait. Southerly winds
will remain elevated in Clarence Strait through Friday as the next
front moves through.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-641-644-664.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GJS

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