421
FXAK67 PAJK 042354
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Tue Feb 4 2025

.SHORT TERM...Few changes were made to the short term forecast.
Outflow continues to weaken and in result wind speeds decrease
and temperatures increase. Today, temperatures again had large
differences between the maximum and minimum for many locations.
Some locations even saw 30 degree differences. This large change
in temperature trend will continue tomorrow, but changes may not
be as drastic due partly cloudy skies. Otherwise, high and low
daily temperatures will now start to steady out with highs in the
mid to upper 30s and lows in the 20s to 30s.

The weather pattern will start to change, as a low develops in
the northeastern gulf Wednesday night. This low will travel south
along the coast bringing low precipitation chances back to the
panhandle due to dry air aloft. Noticeable changes will be
increased cloud coverage. For more information, see the long term
discussion.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...
The pattern change for mid range into the long term forecast period
will become established by Thursday. High pressure ridge at mid
levels will have shifted to the east as a stronger low moves over
the Bering Sea area. By next week start to see energy from that
strong low moving into the AK Gulf. The weak NE Gulf low keeps
tracking SE along the Panhandle coast Thursday into late Friday. For
the weekend another ridge moves over with a likely return to the
typical weather fronts tracking in. SE AK does not look to get into
any highly impactful weather patterns with position of the mid level
ridge, most of the excitement will be the the west.

Precip from the coastal low is indicated to remain mostly off shore
but just tag the SE Panhandle Thursday. With the next ridge its a
onshore flow pattern so once again chance precip for the inner
channels Friday and Saturday. Due to the source of the end of week
low little in the way of moisture transport thus expect maybe a few
hundredths of QPF if anything. Due to the remaining cold air snow
ratios are in the 15-20:1 range, which could drop an inch of light
snow if precip bands move further inland. Temps getting back to a
more seasonable range with highs back into the upper 20s and mid 30s
and lows in the low to high 20s.

Models kept with the chance of precip for SE AK and position and
track of the low. Ensembles get us back to a typical SE AK pattern
but the issue is timing of any blocking ridge break down and that
models tend to make this happen sooner. Little changes made to
previous forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF
period across the panhandle under clear skies as outflow winds
continue to weaken. Main aviation concern is isolated
LLWS/Mechanical Turbulence near Haines due to directional shear
starting at around 1500ft indicated by the NAM model sounding.
Sustained winds remain highest between 15 to 20kts near Haines and
Skagway, with Skagway continuing to have 20 to 30kt gusts. LLWS
conditions will continue to dissipate over the Southern Panhandle,
leaving some potential for turbulence. The wind gusts have also
gone down for the Southern Panhandle, with only Klawock remaining
with up to 20kt gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Gradually decreasing northerly outflow conditions
continue from a weakening area of high pressure centered over the
Yukon. Expect fresh to strong breezes and enhanced seas for the
Southeast Alaskan Inner Channels and the Eastern Gulf of Alaska
through tonight into tomorrow morning. Light Freezing Spray is
also anticipated for Lynn Canal, Taku Inlet, and Stikine inlet
until tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-033-036-651-661-662.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...NC/LC/ZK
MARINE...EAB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau