639
FXAK67 PAJK 012355
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 PM AKDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.SHORT TERM...A broad vertically stacked low remains anchored over
the central gulf to end the week and will continue into the
coming weekend. Many smaller embedded vortices will rotate through
bringing periods of enhanced shower activity and potentially some
gusty winds at times to the panhandle. However as of this
forecast, Saturday will largely prove to be a break for the
panhandle, with Yakutat having the highest likelihood for any
continued showers before the next wrap around low moves in later
Saturday night into Sunday, with a majority of the precipitation
aimed at the central and southern panhandle.

With breaks between shortwaves, temperatures will remain
seasonable to slightly above normal for areas that manage to dodge
more showers, predominantly those further inland Saturday. Aside
from erratic or gusty winds associated with any of the more
vigorous showers Friday and late Saturday night, widespread strong
winds are not in the works in the short term. For more
information on what to expect once this pattern finally starts to
change later in the period, see the long term discussion.

.LONG TERM.../ Sunday to Tuesday night / Vertically stacked low
weakens into an open trough extending back to the stronger low
that has moved into the Bering Sea going into Monday. A new low
that had developed from the Bering Sea feature moves into the
southern gulf and than towards Haida Gwaii and Dixon Entrance
region by Monday afternoon. This will bring some better rainfall
totals with a fresh low were Rainfall totals will likely reach
over an inch for 24 hours Monday and Tuesday. Winds for the
southern panhandle will pick up as well where gusts into the 25 to
30 mph for the southern portion of the panhandle.

Around mid week the upper level flow pattern will be building a
ridge along the Canadian coastline and south, so the flow will be
more Southwesterly over the gulf towards the panhandle. A present,
the favored area for rains will be to the southern, and northern
possibly seeing rain, but not as much as the southern.

&&

.AVIATION...Currently seeing VFR conditions for most of the
panhandle, with ceilings still dipping in and out of MVFR in a
few areas. Skies have managed to clear out in many places in the
wake of the front, though this is occasionally interrupted by low
a scattered deck and spotty showers passing over. The
precipitating band is quickly moving NNW, so many regions will go
back and forth between clouding up and clearing out as the showers
pass. Showers will cause quick bursts of potentially heavy rain
with strong wind gusts and lowered VIS while passing. Many of
these showers have a dense, mid-level broken layer with a low
scattered layer that moves through. This band will continue to
move north out of the panhandle through the afternoon, lingering
over Yakutat and the northern outer coast for a few extra hours.
Skies are expected to clear out behind this band, roughly from
south to north. These clearing skies may allow for some patchy fog
to develop in the southern panhandle early Saturday, which would
substantially reduce CIGS and VIS until it begins to rise mid
morning. The next front reaches the panhandle towards the end of
the period, and although it is not as strong as the last front, it
will still bring more rain and potentially lowered CIGs as it
passes over Sunday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside Waters: Tighter pressure gradient between an embedded low
rotating through and the outer coast will continue to bring 15 to
20 kt winds from the SE along the coastline through Friday night
before they begin to diminish. Seas of 5 to 6 ft are expected in
this same area along the coastline. S to SE swell with wave period
of 5 to 7 seconds expected.

Inside Waters: Most areas will remain light to up to 10 kt,
however there will be some winds up to 15 kts in many of the N-S
oriented channels as the low creates a tightened gradient with a
surface ridge over the panhandle. This will largely bring up the
winds in Clarence Strait through this evening, with gusts around
20 kt possible. Winds along Chatham Strait, Icy Strait and Lynn
Canal will stay around 15 kt, particularly around Point Couverden,
due to this pressure gradient. Winds will then decrease Friday
night with only northern Lynn Canal and Icy Strait near Point
Couverden keeping up with the 10 to 15 kt winds, along with the
backside of Douglas Island with E wind 20 kt through Friday
evening.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....Bezenek
AVIATION...ZTK
MARINE...STJ

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