101
FXAK67 PAJK 061800
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1000 AM AKDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion after issuance of 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Relatively benign weather with some possible breaks
in clouds, particularly in the southern half of the panhandle.
Main change in the message is to reduce the chance of rain today
down to zero in most areas. Juneau would be the exception with
persistent onshore flow keeping a mid cloud deck with the
occasional spit of accumulating rainfall. Otherwise, tightened up
precipitation chances for the onset of rain moving in with the up
and coming strong gale force system Friday night into Saturday.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:

 - A gale force low moves into western gulf early late Friday into
   Saturday.

 - Associated warm front brings more rain focused on the northern
   panhandle Saturday into Sunday.

 - Drier weather on the horizon to start the week as a ridge builds.

Details: Overall little changes have been made to the inherited
forecast in the long range. EFI Tables still match with the northern
coast getting unseasonably wet with this weekend system, though any
precipitation impacts still remain light. A short period of
increased integrated vapor transport of 250 to 500 will be focused
on the northern gulf. This higher moisture will bring the heaviest
precipitation around the Yakutat area with total 24 hour QPF amounts
around 1.5 to 2 inches. Heaviest rain rates will occur Saturday
evening into Sunday morning. The rest of the panhandle will see
lighter rain with 24 hour rain totals around 0.5 to 0.75 inches for
the central panhandle and even less for the south. Other main
impacts with this low will be gale force winds with the potential of
storm force wind gusts. For more information on marine winds, visit
the marine section.

After the weekend system leaves the area, broad ridging will build
over the gulf allowing for a chance of drier weather over the
panhandle with areas of light precipitation. As for temperatures,
highs will be in the mid 50s with lows in the mid 40s near normal.
Upper 50s and low 60s may be possible, mostly in the southern
panhandle where more breaks in the clouds are possible. Stay tuned
for updates through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Majority of the panhandle continues to see good flying
conditions this morning with most seeing VFR and lighter wind
speeds. Most have cloud bases above 3000ft, with the exception of
locations around Icy Strait corridor and some areas in the south
seeing some drops to MVFR due to CIGs below 2500ft caused by
lingering showers. These showers will decrease and locations will
begin to clear up throughout the day, which we already are seeing
around northern Lynn Canal and some areas in the southern
panhandle. Skagway continues to see some elevated winds this
morning, which are expected to decrease by later tonight before
the next front moves in.

Yakutat will begin to see rain moving in as the front will begin
to impact the northeast coast tonight, dropping the conditions to
MVFR and potentially IFR late tonight. There will be LLWS along
the outer coastline tonight with winds exceeding 40kts at 2000ft
just at the end of the TAF issuance period. There will be some
areas of directional shear along the central and southern outer
coast, particularly around Sitka, as the front moves into the
area. The front moving in will continue to drop flight conditions
to MVFR for the rest of the panhandle late tonight as rain and low
cloud ceilings move in.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside Waters:

Kept the inherited gale force winds along the coast for later
this evening. Once this front tracks inland overnight, outside
waters wind speeds will decrease to around 15 to 20 kts.

The rest of Thursday and Friday, general west-to-east flow will give
around 10 to 20 kt winds in the eastern Gulf. A likely gale force
low will move through the western Gulf late Friday into the weekend.
The front side of the low looks to bring gale force winds to the
coastal waters. The winds will start to pick up late Friday night
and last through Saturday. 25 to 35 kt winds could linger into
Sunday for the southern outer coast as the low wraps up and moves
northward.

Inner Channels:

As the previously mentioned front moves inland, inner channel
wind speeds will increase to upwards of 20 to 25 kts tonight with
decreasing wind speeds Thursday afternoon.

The exception to this is northern Lynn Canal where a tightening
pressure gradient will increase wind speeds to 25 kts by late
tonight and the tighter pressure gradient will linger, keeping
northern Lynn Canal wind speeds upwards of 20 to 25 kts through
Thursday night.

Late Friday into the weekend is when the inner channels will have
increased winds again. The previously mentioned low looks to swing a
front through the area that will increase wind speeds in the inner
channels to around 15 to 25 kts. Lynn Canal will be the exception
again where wind speeds will increase to near 30 kts with brief
gusts upwards of 40 to 45 kts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ642>644-651-652-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...NC
HYDROLOGY...NC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau