017
FXAK67 PAJK 222342
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
242 PM AKST Sat Feb 22 2025

.SHORT TERM...Active weather pattern remains for Se AK. Gale
force low over the AK Gulf continues to track to the NW while
weakening Saturday night into early Sunday. Heavy rain to the
south diminishes in rates but still expecting widespread precip
as the front lingers over the Panhandle into Sunday night.
Previous rainfall totals of an inch to two inches recored in last
24 hours with less than an inch for the next 24. Likely more
moderated temps overnight with warm mid level air moving in and
cloud cover. Highs in the low to mid 40s with lows in the low 40s
to mid 30s. Breezy winds into the evening quickly drop off with
relaxing pressure gradient. Synoptic pattern remained mostly
unchanged with models still in good agreement thus little changes
made to previous forecast.


.LONG TERM...Continued active pattern for the foreseeable future (essentially
until the end of next week) with multiple shortwaves troughs and
ridges moving over the eastern gulf, resulting in multiple systems
with small breaks in between. Whether good news or bad,
precipitation type looks to stay predominantly rain for the sea
level areas, with upper elevation roads in the northern panhandle at
risk of some snow development.

Monday will see a system continuing to march up from the south,
bringing moderate to fresh breezes from the southeast and light to
occasionally moderate rainfall. No changes were made to the QPF
forecast, and minor changes were made to the marine forecast, mainly
to lower wind speeds in areas which are sheltered to a SE wind. The
front moving up on Monday looks weaker than expected, with the
shortwave ridge following the trough becoming less amplified. The
result is a tad more rainfall overnight on Monday into Tuesday with
little break.

Tuesday into Wednesday sees a possibly more impactful system moving
in from the south. Currently, the main source of uncertainty comes
from aloft directing flow, which continues to be bimodal in nature.
Model progression seems to indicate a stronger system, which in turn
amplifies the trough aloft, steering the system south of the
panhandle. While more guidance indicates that this system will dig
south, confidence was not high enough to make a change from the more
impactful forecast currently being portrayed. The first, less likely
solution at around 40% chance of occurance, sees the directing flow
towards the southern panhandle. The second, directs the energy south
of the panhandle and toward Haida Gwaii. While this is mainly
focused over the marine areas, such as southern Clarence Strait and
Dixon Entrance, will continue to monitor the potential going
forward. Similarly for precipitation, the more likely solution has
lower rain totals at around 0.5-1.5 inches in a 24 hour period and
wind gusts up to 50 mph.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 23/00Z TAF products, we trend CIGS and VSBYs
lower overnight as the front slowly works northward across SEAK.
Generally VFR to MVFR most locations late this afternoon will go
into periods of MVFR/IFR overnight as the rain becomes a bit more
widespread and CIGS lower, and a period of LIFR due to even lower
CIGS roughly 10Z-18Z for several locations tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...A steady drop off in winds speeds Saturday afternoon
into the evening as the gale force low in the AK Gulf continues
its northwestward progression while weakening. E-W orientated
inner channels winds will stay elevated bit longer in the evening
as the gulf low tracks to the west. By Sunday the low will have
tracked towards Kodiak and winds will be generally 20kt or less
but still some elevated seas over the gulf due to SW swell.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ330.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032-033-036-053-641>644-651-
     652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRB
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...JG
MARINE...PRB

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