747
FXAK67 PAJK 171348
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
548 AM AKDT Sat May 17 2025

.SHORT TERM...Little cloud cover improvement expected for Saturday as
a relatively stagnant pattern continues for most of the panhandle.
It is possible to see some clearing for the southern panhandle and
outer coast as dry air is advected from the west around the
decaying low in the central gulf. Not expecting that air to
permiate far into the inner channels, so expect rain and drizzle
for most of the day. Clouds are expected to dissipate in Canada,
which would drive a thermal gradient between SE AK and British
Columbia. This gradient would encourage some breezier conditions
in places like Skagway.

.LONG TERM...Continuing form the short term, confidence continues
for decreasing cloud cover and weak outflow developing Sunday
night into Monday for the northern panhandle as a near gale force
low approaches the southern panhandle. This feature is expected to
stall SW of Prince of Wales Island, leading to persistent showers
with heaviest rain rates expected Monday morning. Some model
differences remain in the track of the low, which could lead to
more of the panhandle receiving light rain. Overall as this low is
expected to dissipate, the overall flow will shift onshore, with
light showers and breaks continuing into mid to late next week.
For the northern panhandle, clearing skies and developing weak
outflow with downsloping winds will lead to warmer daytime highs
to start the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Sunday/...CIG & VIS conditions will generally
progressively improve from around the MVFR / IFR range up to
around the VFR / MVFR range as a ridge of high pressure builds-in
over the Alaskan Panhandle through the period. As far as winds &
LLWS are concerned, they will remain light / benign through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...Outside: Main threat for the outer gulf is westerly
fresh breezes near Chatham/Sumner ocean entrances and west coast
of Prince of Wales. Expect fresh breezes to shift eastward into
Dixon Entrance by late morning/early afternoon with gentle breezes
left in its wake. WSW swell to continue over the next 12 hours
with significant heights near 5 to 7ft.

A gale force low center will be located off the coast of Haida
Gwaii late Sunday increasing ESE winds to near-gale force for our
coastal waters in the southern Panhandle. There is growing
confidence for gale force southerly winds in Hecate Strait Monday
which would drive fresh seas of 9 to 12ft into far southern
Clarence Strait.

Inside: As advertised, most areas in the inner channels are light
air conditions with the exception of Lynn Canal near Eldred Rock,
which had stubbornly held onto fresh breezes throughout the night.
Today`s marine forecast will be directly tied to daytime heating
in Canada, and how fast cloud cover will burn off this morning.
Current forecast represents cloud cover burn off, and a thermal
gradient developing between British Columbia and SE AK. Moderate
breezes in Icy Strait, Point Coverden, and upper Stephens Passage
on the backside of Douglas look to begin around noon today. Lynn
Canal is expected to stay around 20 knots for the day before
finally relaxing tonight.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...NC/AP

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