287
FXAK67 PAJK 130006
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SHORT TERM...An area of weak low pressure remains in the far northern
Gulf near Prince William Sound this afternoon which is bringing
light rain showers to parts of the Gulf waters and Yakutat area.
Farther to the south, high pressure has moved into the control the
rest of the weather for SE AK. With high pressure controlling
most of the weather for the area, winds continue to be relatively
light with the strongest winds getting up to gentle to moderate
breezes. These conditions are expected to persist tonight before
the low moves closer towards Yakutat which will increase the winds
coming out of Cross Sound and increase the possibility of showers
along the outer coast for tomorrow. With the mostly clear skies
overnight though, temperatures are expected to drop this evening
bringing near freezing to below freezing temperatures for the
Panhandle. For Thursday night, the chance for active weather
returns as the odds for precipitation increase across the area.
With the cooler temperatures, a mix of rain and snow before
switching to mostly rain as warmer temperatures return reducing
the likelihood of snow.

.LONG TERM.../ Friday through Sunday / Weakening trough falls
apart across the north central panhandle as another one lifts
towards the southern panhandle. Friday to Saturday will see a
front, from a low that forms on a feature from the big parent low
in the west central Bering Sea, spreads across the gulf reaching
for the panhandle area and then through the area by Saturday
night.

Late Saturday to Sunday is showing ridging over the gulf to central
gulf coast, while an upper level low cutting south of the
panhandle helps to pull the front through and southeast, which
should result in partial clear, or an end of the shower activity
in the northeast gulf coast and northern panhandle. Does look like
the break will not be very long in time.

Rain snow line Friday and Saturday down to about the Icy Strait
Juneau line, and light or no Accumulations are possible before
warming later and Friday to Saturday pushes in and changes that
region to rain again. Northern Lynn Canal a mix or light snow
accumulation although concerned that moisture amounts will not be
sufficient for larger totals. At this staying on the lighter end
of Snow totals. ( under a few inches. ( under 3 inches ) however
if better QPF is available this could be doubled.


&&

.AVIATION.../00z Thursday - 00z Friday/...Showers over the gulf
and along the coast are forming into a more organized band and
moving over PAYA as of 2-3pm and is bringing CIGs to MVFR. The fog
this morning lasted longer over parts of the south (PAPG, PAKW)
and stratified into a broken low level deck, invof PAWG as well.
Overall webcams continue to show better conditions than METARs
would suggest (PAHN low cloud hung over the sensor). Think fog
will develop somewhere again overnight/Thurs morning. But
competing forces may damper that as another trough (w/ a band of
showers) approaches the outer coast early Thursday and would cause
a slight increase in winds ahead of it that may be enough to mix
the boundary layer. The trough will also cause wind directions
over the southern inner channels up to PASI to back around to the
SE.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Showers and gentle breezes
continue across the Gulf and outer coast this afternoon as high
pressure remains over the eastern portion of the Gulf while a weak
low pressure currently sits near Prince William Sound. Winds across
the area are expected to remain light across the area headed into
Thursday. As the low drifts to the east towards Yakutat, winds are
expected to increase out of Cross Sound into the Cape Fairweather
area. Even with this low in the Gulf, wave heights are expected to
be on a downward trend headed into the weekend with seas being
around 4-5 ft Friday morning. This will be a brief break though the
next system moves north into the area Friday into Saturday bringing
winds increasing towards fresh to strong breezes. Seas are expected
to start building towards 8-12 ft at this time.

Inside (Inner Channels): Light winds persist across the Inner
Channels this afternoon. Winds are expected to shift out of the
north as a weak outflow setup is expected. Winds are expected to
remain light headed into tomorrow for most places with the strongest
winds likely being for the Dixon Entrance/Clarence Strait area and
headed towards Cross Sound. Headed into the weekend, winds are
expected to towards fresh breezes in response to the the low in the
Gulf

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641>643-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...Ferrin
MARINE...SF

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