615
FXAK67 PAJK 181414
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
614 AM AKDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday Night/
Key Points:
 - Rain continues for the panhandle diminishing Friday night into
   Saturday.
 - Winds stay elevated throughout the day before diminishing
   tonight.

Details: An upper level trough continues to move eastward
weakening as it gets closer to the panhandle. This trough moves a
surface low farther into southern Alaska. This low continues to
bring rain to SE AK as it dissipates into Saturday morning. The
initial front, that extended from this low, has now reached the
southern panhandle as of early this morning. Behind this front
rain showers will continue as the upper level trough pushes across
the panhandle into Canada.

Winds will continue to stay elevated for most of the panhandle
before diminishing with the strongest winds located in the
northern panhandle near Skagway. A tight north to south gradient
will allow for gusts up to 30 kts to continue through the morning.
This afternoon into tonight, these winds will slowly dissipate
before becoming steady.

.LONG TERM...Saturday the panhandle will be on the backside of a
trough moving into Canada, with a ridge building across the gulf.
Expect winds to weaken and showers to break apart through
Saturday, leaving behind a pretty nice day for Sunday; if you
happen to like some fog in the morning, sun in the afternoon, and
light winds. While we enjoy a nice break at the end of the weekend
a weakening 500mb low will be transiting along the Aleutian Arc
into Bristol Bay, which will help increase cloud cover and bring
light rain by the start of the week. Attention turns to Wednesday
where a broad open longwave trough moves off the Alaskan Peninsula
into the gulf, helping to reinforce a surface low. For mariners
planning on the Cross Sound - Prince William transit, major
ensemble players are showing agreement on at least 25 knots of
easterly wind, with the potential for near gale force, along the
northern coast.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Saturday/...Primarily, CIG & VIS conditions
within the MVFR flight category are anticipated for the majority
of the Panhandle with lower conditions dipping intermittently into
IFR as you move toward southern Panhandle areas like PAKT &
improving conditions into VFR as you move northward toward the
northern Lynn Canal / PAGY areas. Breezy/gusty conditions out of a
southerly direction are in store for some areas during the TAF
period, especially for the northern Lynn Canal area. LLWS values
are continuing to diminish to benign levels through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
For the Gulf: Winds in the gulf have decreased with the strongest
winds offshore around 25 to 30 kts south of 57 degrees N. These
winds continue to decreasing throughout the day into tonight.
Waves heights along the eastern gulf remain around 8 to 10 ft
beginning to subside tonight from north to south.

Inner Channels: Winds will be strongest tonight into tomorrow as
the front moves through. Over the north and central inner
channels, fresh to strong breezes continue through this morning
before beginning to diminish tonight. Northern Lynn Canal will
see the strongest winds this morning around 20 to 25 kts as a
north to south pressure gradient stays in place. After the upper
level trough and the surface low begin to dissipate, winds in the
inner channels will steady around gentle to moderate breezes.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for
PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAB

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