502
FXAK67 PAJK 230022
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
422 PM AKDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SHORT TERM...
Key messages:
 - Light rain will continue across northern coastal areas tonight.
 - The low pressure system weakens and move SW tonight into
   Saturday morning.
 - Temperatures increase into the weekend as a ridge develops.

Details: Light rain continues across the northern coast tonight into
very early Saturday as the low in the gulf diminishes and moves to
the SW. Winds in the NE gulf and Icy Strait to Cross Sound area will
continue to see wind gusts up to 15 to 20 kts through the evening
before diminishing. With the low weakening, and the light rain
diminishing, expect fog to develop overnight into Saturday morning.
The thickest fog is expected along the Icy Strait corridor as winds
lighten and skies clear.

Tomorrow into Sunday, a ridge develops over the gulf helping to
clear skies and bring warmer temperatures across the panhandle.
Temperatures at 850 degrees reach 12 to 14 degrees C which is very
uncommon for this time of year. Daily high temperatures will get to
the mid to high 70s, with localized areas reaching 80 degrees.
Already today, areas near Klawock reached 80 degrees with the help
of clearing skies. The warmest areas will be inland and away from
water where sea breezes may develop.


.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/...
Key messages:
- Ridging builds over the gulf
- Sunny skies and above normal temperatures expected for this
  weekend into the start of next week

Details: Sunny, benign weather dominates the long range forecast.
An upper level ridge begins to form over the panhandle Sunday,
helping to keep the panhandle dry and warm through the period.
This ridging combined with high pressure in the central gulf will
bring clear skies through the weekend and into early next week.
Occasional high clouds will filter over the northern panhandle at
times, with Yakutat seeing the most coverage through early
mornings. Fog in sheltered inner channel areas and marine layer
development along the outer coast is possible with clear skies
combined with warm temperatures and light winds.

This ridge and clearing skies will allow for warmer temperatures,
especially for the southern panhandle. Temperatures at 850 mb
increase to around 11 to 14 degrees C, even reaching 15 degrees C
for the interior southern panhandle. Those upper level
temperatures, with clearing skies, indicate temperatures
increasing into the 70s for many locations, and into the high 70s
in the southern panhandle. The heat advisory for Hyder has been
extended through Sunday afternoon. These warmer temperatures are
expected to continue into early next week. Winds remain light with
at most 5 to 10 kts for a majority of areas. Some communities
along the inner channels and Northern Lynn Canal may feel a sea
breeze developing in the afternoons, though this won`t get very
strong with the combating outflow winds. The only exception to
this is into Cross Sound and around Point Couverden, with the
ridging helping to funnel sea breezes into the channel. Inland
areas will feel warmer, as light sea breezes may provide a gentle
breeze to communities along the water.

Low probability for light rain and cloud cover return through
Thursday, as remnants from a broad system extending from interior
Alaska down through the western gulf.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 00Z Sunday/...Expect VFR conditions through the
whole TAF period in areas that do not receive rainfall through
tonight. For areas that receive rainfall, primarily areas in the
north & central Panhandle, mainly from around PAGS, westward, FG
formation is possible into tomorrow morning as surfaces will be
moist, winds very light, & skies will be beginning to clear out.
Those areas may dip into the MVFR/IFR category range late tonight
and into tomorrow morning. Overall, winds will remain relatively
light through the period aside from some afternoon sea breezes.
LLWS values remain benign through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: Winds have begun to diminish throughout the day as the low
in the gulf has started to weaken. The low will continue to weaken
allowing for winds to diminish even further into early Saturday
morning. Currently, the strongest winds are expected west of cross
sound in the NE gulf. Fresh breezes continue with winds around 20
kts and gusts of 25 to 30 kts, mainly farther offshore. Wave heights
currently are around 6 to 8 ft for the offshore waters. Along with
diminishing winds, seas will subside into Saturday to between 3 to 5
ft.

Inside: The strongest winds tonight will be coming out of Cross
Sound, as well as near Point Couverden by Rocky Island. Cross sound
will continue to see easterly moderate to fresh breezes between 15
and 20 kt into tonight. Waters around Rocky Island have begun to
diminish as of this afternoon. Areas near Point Couverden will
continue to see winds up to 15 kts into this evening with isolated
gusts up to 20 kts. Tonight into early Saturday, wind will diminish
and be at or below 10 kts across inside waters. The main impacts
over the next couple of days will be sea breezes that will increase
winds, and fog development. For tonight into Saturday morning, fog
development is most likely along the Icy Strait corridor as winds
lighten and skies clear.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM AKDT Saturday for AKZ328-330.
     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 PM AKDT Sunday for AKZ331.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ643-644-662>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...EAB

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