207
FXAK67 PAJK 191321
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
521 AM AKDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Saturday night / The remains of the
initial frontal band has moved through Southeast Alaska. The main
band of snow in the north has tapered off. The surface feature
that the band was associated with is drifting SE and is WNW of the
Sitka. An inner wrap feature has a small organized band of
showers approaching Chichagof and Baranof Islands. This narrow
band is getting close to the coastline through today. This may put
a brief burst of the rain and or snow. The rain snow line looks
to be just south of Cross Sound to Funter Bay and then south to
Taku Inlet. North of the line the precip is snow with minor
accumulations tonight.

As the low tracks to the southern panhandle and high pressure
holding or slightly building over the Yukon Territories. The
northerly pressure gradient will increase overnight and then
continue into Friday. Winds through Lynn Canal will increase back
to Small Craft/Gales by early Sunday.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/...The mid-range begins with
dry weather across the panhandle. Northerly outflow winds will
setup across the area as a low departs off to the S, and High
pressure builds over the Yukon. This will lead to plummeting
temperatures, with below freezing overnight lows expected across
most of the panhandle. Some areas in the N half of the panhandle
will likely drop into the low 20s, with the coldest temperatures
occurring Sunday night into Monday morning. Alongside the cold
weather, small craft conditions are anticipated for the inner
channels. Concurrently, a mountain wave event may form across
downtown, lasting through Sunday. At this time anticipate that
wind gusts would likely cap out at around 40 - 50 mph for
downtown Juneau should the mountain wave successfully form, given
less than idea conditions, but this will need to be closely
monitored should in the event that cross barrier flow becomes more
favorable.

Precipitation returns on Tuesday as a front moves across the
panhandle. At this time, think that the system could be
accompanied by some snow for areas from the Icy Strait Corridor,
This is a low confidence forecast however, as surging snow levels
could cause an almost immediate changeover to rain, resulting in
minimal to no snow accumulation across the area. In either case,
precipitation chances linger across SE AK afterwards through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...The forecast for aviation weather can still be
divided into 2 parts Saturday morning:
-Areas south of Icy Strait
-Areas along and north of Icy Strait

For areas south of Icy Strait, MVFR and IFR conditions persist
mainly due to broken CIGs of 1000 ft or less. Showers will
continue through the morning, with conditions improving from north
to south through the rest of the day.

For areas north of Icy Strait, the rain and snow has largely come
to an end as the low in the gulf now resides off Baranof Island
and continues to weaken. Drier weather slides in from the north,
with VFR conditions developing and expected through the day
Saturday. For areas along Icy Strait, especially Gustavus, Hoonah,
and Juneau, expect conditions to gradually improve through
Saturday afternoon with diminishing snow showers and drier
weather continuing to advance southward.

&&

.MARINE...Weakening area of low pressure in the gulf is the main
driver of the winds and waves around SE AK. As this low weakens and
slides southeast along the coast, wind speeds should decrease
Saturday. The exception is Lynn Canal where northern winds are
blowing gale force. High pressure will build over northwest Canada
and with the low cutting across the southern panhandle overnight.
The gradient over Lynn Canal will increase and expect that winds
will increase up to 25 to 30 kt that will persist into Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A drop in the levels at Suicide Basin were noted
starting late Thursday and continuing into Friday. Snowfall near
the basin has impacted sensor by blocking the ability to read the
basin level. While a slight increase in the Mendenhall Lake level
has continued even after the precipitation in the Juneau area
transitioned over to snow from rain. Further monitoring of
the Mendenhall Lake level will persist through Saturday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012.
         Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-022-031-032-641>644-651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...Bezenek

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