509
FXAK67 PAJK 221315
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
415 AM AKST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SHORT TERM...After a brief period of weaker outflow winds, a
strengthening pressure gradient will see winds strengthening
through the day on Friday, with strong Northerly outflow lasting
through Saturday.

A broad area of troughing south of the panhandle which previously
saw a strong low develop off the coast of Washington State is
seeing another low racing N, as the old low decays to its W.
Between the new low, and the pre-existing high pressure over the
Yukon, the pressure gradient will once more intensify, bringing
stronger winds back across SE Alaska. A mountain wave event will
once more occur over Downtown Juneau and Douglas, and a High Wind
Warning has been issued for these areas, taking effect at 3 PM
AKST on Friday.

Clear skies and dry weather will remain in abundance through
Friday. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side for the N and
central panhandles, although there is a possibility that some warm
air aloft pushed ahead of the system S of the panhandle may work
its way into the southern panhandle. Only minimal changes were
made to the forecast - primarily towards increasing wind speeds

.LONG TERM.../Saturday into early next week/... Blocking pattern
developing over the region means that conditions will remain
relatively unchanged through the weekend and into early next week
across the panhandle. High pressure will continue over the interior,
though may shift further east into British Columbia by the start of
next week. This could lead to a slight weakening of northerly
outflow winds, but enhance outflow winds from NE and easterly
oriented valleys and interior passes.

Any chance of precipitation returning to the panhandle rests on the
blocking ridge over the western gulf breaking down. Deterministic
models are attempting to do so, or at least weaken the ridge such
that a short wave can develop in the northern gulf. If this comes to
fruition, snow showers could be expected along the outer coast
sometime Monday into Tuesday with the potential to reach into the
Icy Strait corridor and central panhandle. However, ensembles
guidance are still leaning towards the ridge remaining strong into
early next week. For those looking for more snow, this potential
trough early next week looks to be fairly dry with ensemble
guidance suggesting 24 hr snow totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches by
Wednesday.

This far out, there is a high confidence in the overall synoptic
pattern with outflow winds continuing and relatively dry conditions
through the weekend. With no significant storms currently showing up
in model guidance in the mid and long range, the blocking ridge
could be around for a while, which means generally below normal
temperatures and continuing dry conditions potentially into the
Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR SKC LLWS as outflow winds continue.

&&

.MARINE...Gale force outflow winds through northern inner
channels and interior passes/river valleys for the northeast gulf
coast, and out of Cross sound. With the persistent winds in Lynn
Canal and down Chatham Strait, have enhanced seas through
Friday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind from 3 PM AKST this afternoon through this afternoon
     for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ325.
     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM AKST Saturday
     for AKZ325.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>034-643-644-662>664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-035-053-641-642-651-661-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...Bezenek
HYDROLOGY...99

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