095
FXAK67 PAJK 171258
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
458 AM AKDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds to the panhandle on
  Monday, along with much cooler temperatures.

- The cooler, more seasonable conditions will prevail this week
  with mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers as multiple
  systems pass through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...The front extending from the low centered over
southwest Alaska continues to push into the panhandle early this
morning, spreading light to moderate rain into much of SEAK. The
front will weaken as it drags southeast through the day, with rain
amounts diminishing. Additional rain amounts of 0.25 to 0.75
inches for much of the northern panhandle, with lower amounts as
you head south, with 0.10 to 0.25 inches for the southern
panhandle. The frontal passage will also bring gusty winds,
especially for Skagway and Klondike Highway, where southerly winds
20 to 30 mph gusting to 40+ mph are expected. Behind the front,
onshore flow will keep cooler marine air over much of the
panhandle, along with mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers.
The ridge of high pressure looks to briefly build into the
southern panhandle on Tuesday, allowing for some clearing and
slightly warmer temps through midweek. The next front looks to
lift into the region by later Wednesday as a low slides into the
western Gulf. Models differ on exact timing and location, but
confidence is for another round of steadier/heavier rain lifting
into the northern panhandle and northeast Gulf coast by Wednesday
night, with decreasing rain chances further south. Daytime temps
much cooler for the start of the week, with highs generally in the
60s, although Yakutat may struggle to reach 60. Some pockets of
low 70s possible for the southern panhandle Tuesday and Wednesday
as partial clearing will allow for greater daytime heating.

.LONG TERM... Extremely little changes to the overall long term
forecast, with the only large scale feature of note being a surge
of energy from the eastern Bering Sea possibly moving into the
northern Alaska Gulf by this weekend. Details are still low on
this possible event, but worse case scenario from current
solutions is another round of moderate to possibly heavy rain for
primarily the northern half of the panhandle, along with an
increase in winds. Otherwise, mid to late work week has multiple
waves move through mainly the northern half of the panhandle.
These waves do not look to bring rain totals greater than an inch,
with rain rates not exceeding light intensity.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 12z Tuesday/
Front continues to push across the Gulf of Alaska and into the
panhandle Monday morning, with the previous marine layer along
the coastal terminals gone for the most part. While the majority
of heavier rain stays in the northern panhandle, southern
terminals will see gradual decrease in conditions to MVFR or worse
as rain overspreads the panhandle through 0z Tuesday with CIGS
AoB 2500ft and VIS 2 to 3 sm within any heavier showers. Lowest
conditions generally expected along outer coast terminals.

Most sites in the northern panhandle will be IFR/MVFR with cigs
sitting around 1-3kft through the morning hours. Expect some
improvement later in the morning, and as the day wears on Monday
rain will gradually dry up for the far northern portions of the
panhandle (PAYA/PAHN/PAGY) with a transition to primarily
scattered showers behind the front. Some VIS restrictions will
remain later on Monday for the central panhandle as rain
continues and with CIGs AoB 3000 ft as well.

Winds will be blowing strongly up Lynn Canal, with gusts up to
25kts at times for Haines, and Skagway with potential up to 35kts
at times Monday. Winds aloft will gradually shift from
southeasterly to westerly as the front lifts through the
panhandle through the day Monday. Only LLWS concerns are along the
NE gulf coast through the early morning hours as the front pushes
in and a barrier jet briefly forms.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside:
As of this discussion, winds near Cape St. Elias and buoy 82 have
begun to decline behind the front advancing north and east across
the gulf. As of 5am Monday, seas of 10 ft with a period of around
8 seconds were still being reported. Further east at the
Fairweather Grounds, buoy 83 was still reporting seas closer to 5
ft with a period around 16 seconds. From Cross Sound south to
Prince of Wales, fresh to moderate breezes are still expected
through the day before a westerly wind shift behind the front
through the afternoon and evening hours. For the northern coast,
large and confused seas from building southwest swell mixing with
southeasterly wind driven seas will gradually subside through
the evening hours behind the front. As you move from Cross Sound
to Prince of Wales, expect southwest swell to be a bit more
prominent, with southerly wind chop riding on top. Significant
heights of 8 ft near Cape Edgecumbe, and 6 to 7 ft west of Prince
of Wales.

Inside:
Current forecast shows confidence for building moderate breezes
across Chatham and Stephens Monday, with strong breezes impacting
Lynn Canal. As of 5am Monday , northern Lynn Canal is maintaining
sustained southerly winds around 25 kt and this is expected to
continue and strengthen slightly through the afternoon hours as
the front lifts inland. Folks in Glacier Bay will feel
southeasterly winds of moderate to fresh breezes, becoming
southerly as the front moves over the area Monday afternoon.
Caution advised for Reid Inlet and other bays/inlets sheltered
from southeast winds but exposed to southerly blows in Glacier
Bay.

While some guidance highlights the possibility of moderate to
fresh breezes in Clarence Strait today, current thinking is the
front and resulting pressure gradient will remain strongest in
the central and northern Panhandle. As a result, sustained winds
are expected to remain below fresh breezes for the south.
Forecasted peak winds show up to 15 knots in Clarence for Monday
afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM AKDT this evening
     for AKZ318.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...STJ/AP

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